Ajax Amsterdam v FC Utrecht — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam

20:00 UTC

FC Utrecht

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,017h before kick-off

Ajax Amsterdam win

57.9%

model 59.0%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.2%

FC Utrecht win

19.0%

model 17.8%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.9%
2-1 9.9%
2-0 9.5%
1-0 8.3%
3-1 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.3%	Under 2.5	40.7%
BTTS yes	57.4%	BTTS no	42.6%
Ajax Amsterdam 1+	86.8%	Ajax Amsterdam 2+	60.1%
FC Utrecht 1+	64.8%	FC Utrecht 2+	28.1%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

73/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

90%

★ Best pick

FC Utrecht under 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 58%

71.5% fair odds 1.40

moderate signal · 1221 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Ajax Amsterdam or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Ajax Amsterdam carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1571.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Ajax Amsterdam have an estimated 57.9% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 19.0% for FC Utrecht. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.03 for Ajax Amsterdam and 1.04 for FC Utrecht.

Why Ajax Amsterdam

Ajax Amsterdam carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1571. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why FC Utrecht can win

Nothing in the data singles out FC Utrecht.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Ajax Amsterdam, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Utrecht, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Ajax Amsterdam: 61% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Utrecht: 44% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Ajax Amsterdam's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Ajax Amsterdam are the model's most likely outcome at 57.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Confidence 73/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	592318	2.03–1.05	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	492526	1.84–1.29	1-1 12%	60%	62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win	49.2%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11
FC Utrecht to win	25.7%	27.9%	30.1%	0.93×	3.59
Draw	25.1%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam & both teams score	27.1%	25.2%	21.2%	1.19×	3.97
Ajax Amsterdam & not both score	22.1%	21.8%	23.4%	0.93×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.6%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
FC Utrecht & both teams score	15.3%	18.0%	17.2%	1.04×	5.57
FC Utrecht & not both score	10.4%	13.3%	13.1%	1.01×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.6%	8.3%	3.5%	2.38×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam & over 1.5	42.2%	40.2%	36.2%	1.11×	2.49
Ajax Amsterdam & over 2.5	34.8%	30.8%	28.9%	1.06×	3.25
Ajax Amsterdam & under 3.5	28.5%	26.1%	27.5%	0.95×	3.84
Ajax Amsterdam & over 3.5	20.7%	21.6%	17.0%	1.27×	4.63
FC Utrecht & over 1.5	21.2%	21.6%	26.2%	0.83×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.6%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
FC Utrecht & over 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.1%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
FC Utrecht & under 3.5	16.4%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Ajax Amsterdam & under 2.5	14.4%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
FC Utrecht & over 3.5	9.3%	7.9%	10.4%	0.77×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
FC Utrecht & under 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.63
Ajax Amsterdam & under 1.5	6.9%	7.9%	8.4%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.6%	7.9%	3.5%	2.26×	12.63
FC Utrecht & under 1.5	4.5%	4.8%	4.1%	1.17×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (1UP)	65.8%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
FC Utrecht (1UP)	46.0%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (2UP)	49.2%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
FC Utrecht (2UP)	25.7%	25.0%	—	—	3.99

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win 2nd half	40.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.38
2nd half drawn	33.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
FC Utrecht to win 2nd half	26.0%	25.8%	—	—	3.87

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
FC Utrecht over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
FC Utrecht under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
FC Utrecht over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.9%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 in 2nd half	35.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.1%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (+2.5)	87.2%	88.5%	86.8%	1.02×	1.13
Ajax Amsterdam (+0.5)	74.3%	73.7%	69.9%	1.05×	1.36
FC Utrecht (+1.5)	71.9%	73.7%	74.7%	0.99×	1.36
FC Utrecht (+0.5)	50.8%	52.4%	55.6%	0.94×	1.91
Ajax Amsterdam (-0.5)	49.2%	47.6%	44.4%	1.07×	2.10
Ajax Amsterdam (-1.5)	28.1%	26.3%	25.3%	1.04×	3.80
FC Utrecht (-0.5)	25.7%	26.3%	30.1%	0.87×	3.80
Ajax Amsterdam (-2.5)	12.8%	11.5%	13.2%	0.87×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht to concede	84.1%	81.5%	83.6%	0.98×	1.23
FC Utrecht clean sheet	15.9%	18.5%	16.4%	1.12×	5.42

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht to concede in 1st half	54.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
FC Utrecht clean sheet in 1st half	45.4%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht to concede in 2nd half	64.9%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
FC Utrecht clean sheet in 2nd half	35.1%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht under 6.5 corners	84.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
FC Utrecht under 5.5 corners	74.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Utrecht over 2.5 corners	72.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Utrecht under 4.5 corners	61.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
FC Utrecht over 3.5 corners	55.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
FC Utrecht under 3.5 corners	44.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
FC Utrecht over 4.5 corners	38.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Utrecht under 2.5 corners	27.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
FC Utrecht over 5.5 corners	25.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
FC Utrecht over 6.5 corners	15.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht under 3.5 goals	95.8%	97.5%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
FC Utrecht under 2.5 goals	86.0%	87.8%	84.9%	1.03×	1.14
FC Utrecht over 0.5 goals	72.4%	71.9%	73.2%	0.98×	1.39
FC Utrecht under 1.5 goals	63.2%	63.2%	58.1%	1.09×	1.58
FC Utrecht over 1.5 goals	36.8%	36.8%	41.9%	0.88×	2.72
FC Utrecht under 0.5 goals	27.6%	28.1%	26.8%	1.05×	3.56
FC Utrecht over 2.5 goals	14.0%	12.2%	15.1%	0.81×	8.19
FC Utrecht over 3.5 goals	4.2%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht under 1.5 in 1st half	90.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.06
FC Utrecht under 0.5 in 1st half	59.8%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
FC Utrecht over 0.5 in 1st half	40.2%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
FC Utrecht over 1.5 in 1st half	9.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.51

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht scores equally in both	39.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
FC Utrecht scores more in 2nd half	38.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
FC Utrecht scores more in 1st half	22.2%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (away no bet)	66.2%	66.4%	63.5%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.8%	33.6%	36.5%	0.92×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht even goals	53.8%	52.6%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
FC Utrecht odd goals	46.2%	47.4%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.7%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.3%	18.7%	—	—	5.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.0%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.0%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.1%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Ajax Amsterdam to score 2+ in a row	45.2%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
FC Utrecht to score 2+ in a row	26.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.2%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Ajax Amsterdam to score 3+ in a row	18.4%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
FC Utrecht to score 3+ in a row	7.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.98

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+3.5)	91.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+2.5)	87.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Ajax Amsterdam corners (+1.5)	80.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
FC Utrecht corners (+3.5)	68.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
FC Utrecht corners (+2.5)	59.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-1.5)	51.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
FC Utrecht corners (+1.5)	48.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-2.5)	40.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Ajax Amsterdam corners (-3.5)	31.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
FC Utrecht corners (-1.5)	19.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
FC Utrecht corners (-2.5)	12.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
FC Utrecht corners (-3.5)	8.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	38.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.6%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.72
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.50
1-0	6.9%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
1-2	6.7%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.51
2-0	7.4%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
0-0	5.6%	7.4%	3.5%	2.11×	13.51
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
3-1	5.8%	7.4%	3.7%	2.03×	13.51
Any other score	4.9%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.29
0-1	4.5%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.29
0-2	3.6%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.30
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.32
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.31
3-0	4.5%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
3-2	3.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-0	2.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.31
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (2nd half DNB)	61.1%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
FC Utrecht (2nd half DNB)	38.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam leading at HT (DNB)	64.0%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
FC Utrecht leading at HT (DNB)	36.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or FC Utrecht (12)	74.9%	72.1%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Ajax Amsterdam or draw (1X)	74.3%	72.1%	69.9%	1.03×	1.39
FC Utrecht or draw (X2)	50.8%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw at HT	78.3%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
FC Utrecht or draw at HT	61.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Ajax Amsterdam or FC Utrecht at HT	60.3%	61.3%	—	—	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw (1UP)	74.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
FC Utrecht or draw (1UP)	50.8%	58.6%	—	—	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam or draw in 2nd half	74.0%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Ajax Amsterdam or FC Utrecht in 2nd half	67.0%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
FC Utrecht or draw in 2nd half	59.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.3%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.7%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (DNB)	65.7%	67.3%	59.6%	1.13×	1.49
FC Utrecht (DNB)	34.3%	32.7%	40.4%	0.81×	3.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score first	55.5%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
FC Utrecht to score first	38.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	5.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.52

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.0%	56.6%	60.3%	0.94×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.0%	43.4%	39.7%	1.09×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.4%	47.2%	48.7%	0.97×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.1%	33.3%	28.8%	1.16×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	11.6%	12.4%	11.7%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.9%	8.3%	11.1%	0.75×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.8%	79.7%	80.4%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.2%	20.3%	19.6%	1.03×	4.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.7%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.3%	34.3%	—	—	2.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.2%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	27.6%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	14.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.6%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	38.4%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.0%	42.1%	46.7%	0.90×	2.37
4-6 goals	34.0%	30.7%	33.8%	0.91×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.0%	20.2%	15.7%	1.29×	4.94
7+ goals	4.0%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.9%	31.5%	1.14×	2.78
FC Utrecht to score exactly 0	27.6%	27.4%	26.8%	1.02×	3.65
FC Utrecht to score exactly 2	22.9%	22.3%	26.9%	0.83×	4.48
FC Utrecht to score 3+	14.0%	12.9%	15.1%	0.86×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 1	29.3%	26.6%	33.2%	0.80×	3.77
Ajax Amsterdam to score 3+	27.9%	26.5%	23.7%	1.12×	3.77
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	26.9%	0.99×	3.77
Ajax Amsterdam to score exactly 0	15.9%	18.8%	16.4%	1.14×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.7%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Ajax Amsterdam leading at HT	38.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
FC Utrecht leading at HT	21.7%	20.7%	—	—	4.83

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam -1: 2	50.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Ajax Amsterdam -1: 1	28.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Ajax Amsterdam -1: X	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (0:1)	50.8%	51.3%	55.6%	0.92×	1.95
Ajax Amsterdam (0:1)	28.1%	27.0%	25.3%	1.07×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.1%	24.2%	19.3%	1.25×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (0:2)	71.9%	75.7%	74.7%	1.01×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.3%	15.3%	12.2%	1.25×	6.55
Ajax Amsterdam (0:2)	12.8%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (0:3)	87.2%	90.6%	86.8%	1.04×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.0%	5.8%	7.8%	0.75×	17.20
Ajax Amsterdam (0:3)	4.8%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	42.00

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (0:4)	95.2%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.3%	1.2%	2.6%	0.47×	81.74
Ajax Amsterdam (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	81.93

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (1:0)	74.3%	72.4%	69.9%	1.04×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	14.4%	12.7%	14.8%	0.86×	7.87
FC Utrecht (1:0)	11.3%	12.7%	15.5%	0.82×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam (2:0)	88.7%	88.5%	84.5%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.5%	6.4%	8.8%	0.72×	15.69
FC Utrecht (2:0)	3.8%	2.3%	6.8%	0.33×	43.60

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.6%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.6%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to concede	72.4%	73.2%	73.2%	1.00×	1.37
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	27.6%	26.8%	26.8%	1.00×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet in 1st half	59.8%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Ajax Amsterdam to concede in 1st half	40.2%	37.9%	—	—	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to concede in 2nd half	53.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet in 2nd half	46.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam over 2.5 corners	87.8%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Ajax Amsterdam over 3.5 corners	76.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Ajax Amsterdam over 4.5 corners	63.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Ajax Amsterdam under 6.5 corners	62.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Ajax Amsterdam under 5.5 corners	50.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Ajax Amsterdam over 5.5 corners	49.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Ajax Amsterdam over 6.5 corners	37.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Ajax Amsterdam under 4.5 corners	36.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Ajax Amsterdam under 3.5 corners	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Ajax Amsterdam under 2.5 corners	12.2%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam under 3.5 goals	88.6%	87.3%	89.2%	0.98×	1.15
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 goals	84.1%	82.2%	83.6%	0.98×	1.22
Ajax Amsterdam under 2.5 goals	72.1%	74.2%	76.3%	0.97×	1.35
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 goals	54.8%	53.2%	50.5%	1.05×	1.88
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 goals	45.2%	46.8%	49.5%	0.95×	2.14
Ajax Amsterdam over 2.5 goals	27.9%	25.8%	23.7%	1.08×	3.88
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 goals	15.9%	17.8%	16.4%	1.08×	5.62
Ajax Amsterdam over 3.5 goals	11.4%	12.7%	10.8%	1.18×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam under 1.5 in 1st half	81.3%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Ajax Amsterdam over 0.5 in 1st half	54.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Ajax Amsterdam under 0.5 in 1st half	45.4%	49.4%	—	—	2.02
Ajax Amsterdam over 1.5 in 1st half	18.7%	16.1%	—	—	6.20

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam scores more in 2nd half	40.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Ajax Amsterdam scores equally in both	32.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
Ajax Amsterdam scores more in 1st half	27.0%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht (home no bet)	50.6%	51.3%	54.1%	0.95×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.4%	48.7%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam even goals	51.3%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
Ajax Amsterdam odd goals	48.7%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.3%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
HT 1-0	21.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	13.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	11.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	8.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
Any other HT score	6.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.01
HT 0-2	3.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	30.6%	32.1%	—	—	3.11
Draw at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	15.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
FC Utrecht at HT / FC Utrecht at FT	13.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / FC Utrecht at FT	9.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
FC Utrecht at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
FC Utrecht at HT / Ajax Amsterdam at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Ajax Amsterdam at HT / FC Utrecht at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to score last	55.6%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
FC Utrecht to score last	38.8%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	5.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.52

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.4%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 1 at any time	65.8%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
FC Utrecht to lead by 1 at any time	46.0%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 2 at any time	35.8%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
FC Utrecht to lead by 2 at any time	17.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Ajax Amsterdam to lead by 3 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
FC Utrecht to lead by 3 at any time	5.4%	6.7%	—	—	15.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam most corners	62.2%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
FC Utrecht most corners	27.9%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	9.9%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.8%	83.4%	87.5%	0.95×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.0%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.9%	72.4%	75.8%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	73.3%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.4%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	56.4%	59.1%	58.9%	1.00×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.4%	59.1%	55.7%	1.06×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.7%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.0%	43.6%	46.7%	0.93×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.8%	39.2%	39.0%	1.01×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.1%	35.2%	37.0%	0.95×	2.84
4-6 goals	34.0%	35.2%	33.8%	1.04×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.3%	30.2%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.6%	18.8%	16.9%	1.11×	5.31
7+ goals	4.0%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.04

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam never behind	48.5%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
FC Utrecht never behind	28.6%	30.1%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.3%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	83.0%	82.3%	84.3%	0.98×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.4%	77.3%	79.1%	0.98×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.0%	61.7%	62.3%	0.99×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	60.4%	61.7%	59.7%	1.03×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	39.6%	38.3%	40.3%	0.95×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	38.0%	38.3%	37.7%	1.01×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.6%	22.7%	20.9%	1.09×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.0%	17.7%	15.7%	1.13×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.7%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	3.5%	2.21×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.8%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.2%	86.7%	89.7%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.0%	75.9%	79.2%	0.96×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.1%	75.9%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.1%	51.9%	51.7%	1.00×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.9%	48.1%	48.3%	0.99×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.9%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.0%	24.1%	20.8%	1.16×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.8%	13.3%	10.3%	1.28×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.2%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.53

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.6%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.4%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.6%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.4%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht not to score in both halves	78.4%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Ajax Amsterdam not to score in both halves	64.6%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Ajax Amsterdam to score in both halves	35.4%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
FC Utrecht to score in both halves	21.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.0%	60.3%	60.3%	1.00×	1.66
Only Ajax Amsterdam scores	22.1%	22.2%	23.4%	0.95×	4.50
Only FC Utrecht scores	10.4%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.07
Neither team scores	5.6%	7.1%	3.5%	2.03×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.6%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.4%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	11.5%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.9%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.7%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.6%	7.6%	3.5%	2.17×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	14.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.6%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	28.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	16.6%	16.4%	—	—	6.09

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht not to win both halves	94.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Ajax Amsterdam not to win both halves	84.0%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Ajax Amsterdam to win both halves	16.0%	16.1%	—	—	6.21
FC Utrecht to win both halves	5.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ajax Amsterdam to win either half	63.5%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
FC Utrecht to win neither half	58.1%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
FC Utrecht to win either half	41.9%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Ajax Amsterdam to win neither half	36.5%	34.9%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Utrecht not to win to nil	89.6%	88.1%	86.9%	1.01×	1.14
Ajax Amsterdam not to win to nil	77.9%	78.1%	76.6%	1.02×	1.28
Ajax Amsterdam to win to nil	22.1%	21.9%	23.4%	0.93×	4.57
FC Utrecht to win to nil	10.4%	11.9%	13.1%	0.91×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.1%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
Ajax Amsterdam by 1	21.1%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.15
Ajax Amsterdam by 2	15.3%	17.0%	12.2%	1.40×	5.87
FC Utrecht by 1	14.4%	11.8%	14.8%	0.80×	8.50
Ajax Amsterdam by 3+	12.8%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
FC Utrecht by 2	7.5%	7.2%	8.8%	0.81×	13.91
FC Utrecht by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	36.79