Aktobe-2 v Tobol-M — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 8 October 2026 · KAZ-First League · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-2 7.1%
- 2-1 6.6%
- 1-2 5.9%
- 3-2 5.6%
- 3-1 5.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 82.9% | Under 2.5 | 17.1% |
| BTTS yes | 79.4% | BTTS no | 20.6% |
| Aktobe-2 1+ | 90.9% | Aktobe-2 2+ | 69.0% |
| Tobol-M 1+ | 88.1% | Tobol-M 2+ | 62.9% |
Expected goals 2.39 – 2.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Aktobe-2 have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Tobol-M have allowed 1.35.
- At home Aktobe-2 average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Aktobe-2 have only 0 matches on record.
- Tobol-M have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Aktobe-2 have an estimated 45.9% win probability, against 36.4% for Tobol-M and 17.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.39 for Aktobe-2 and 2.13 for Tobol-M.
Why Aktobe-2
Aktobe-2 have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Tobol-M have allowed 1.35. At home Aktobe-2 average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 17.8%.
Why Tobol-M can win
Tobol-M have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Aktobe-2 have allowed 1.35. Away from home Tobol-M average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Aktobe-2, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tobol-M, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Aktobe-2: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tobol-M: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Aktobe-2 are the model's most likely outcome at 45.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-2 at 7.0%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.39–2.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 3.42–2.81 | 3-2 5% | 95% | 91% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.