Al Ahli v Al Diriyah — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 14 December 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627
KSA-Pro League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 14.4%
- 1-1 13.2%
- 2-0 12.0%
- 0-0 11.9%
- 2-1 8.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 39.2% | Under 2.5 | 60.8% |
| BTTS yes | 42.3% | BTTS no | 57.7% |
| Al Ahli 1+ | 77.9% | Al Ahli 2+ | 44.6% |
| Al Diriyah 1+ | 52.5% | Al Diriyah 2+ | 17.1% |
Expected goals 1.51 – 0.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Al Ahli carry the stronger rating, 1735 Elo against 1529.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Al Diriyah have only 5 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Al Ahli have an estimated 54.2% win probability, against 28.9% for the draw and 17.0% for Al Diriyah. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.51 for Al Ahli and 0.74 for Al Diriyah.
Why Al Ahli
Al Ahli carry the stronger rating, 1735 Elo against 1529.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.9%. A combined 2.25 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 22% in this competition.
Why Al Diriyah can win
Nothing in the data singles out Al Diriyah.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Al Ahli, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Al Diriyah, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Al Ahli: 52% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Diriyah: 41% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Al Ahli are the model's most likely outcome at 54.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.4%. Confidence 64/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.51–0.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.25–0.65 | 1-0 17% | 30% | 36% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.