Al Ahli v Al Taawoun — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 5 November 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627

KSA-Pro League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Al Ahli

20:00 UTC

Al Taawoun

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 297h before kick-off

Al Ahli win

60.5%

model 61.1%

Draw

21.7%

model 22.9%

Al Taawoun win

17.9%

model 16.0%

602218

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
2-0 10.1%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 8.7%
3-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.6%	Under 2.5	41.4%
BTTS yes	55.7%	BTTS no	44.3%
Al Ahli 1+	87.3%	Al Ahli 2+	61.0%
Al Taawoun 1+	62.5%	Al Taawoun 2+	25.8%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Al Ahli (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 44%

63.7% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Al Taawoun (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 91%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 296 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Al Ahli carry the stronger rating, 1735 Elo against 1470.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Al Ahli have an estimated 60.5% win probability, against 21.7% for the draw and 17.9% for Al Taawoun. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.06 for Al Ahli and 0.98 for Al Taawoun.

Why Al Ahli

Al Ahli carry the stronger rating, 1735 Elo against 1470.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.7%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Al Taawoun can win

Nothing in the data singles out Al Taawoun.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Al Ahli, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Al Taawoun, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Al Ahli: 52% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Taawoun: 58% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Al Ahli are the model's most likely outcome at 60.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	612316	2.06–0.98	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	622315	2.02–0.90	1-1 11%	56%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli to win	62.2%	58.2%	43.5%	1.34×	1.72
Draw	23.0%	24.4%	21.6%	1.13×	4.09
Al Taawoun to win	14.8%	13.5%	35.0%	0.39×	7.39

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli & not both score	34.0%	29.6%	21.9%	1.35×	3.38
Al Ahli & both teams score	28.2%	25.2%	21.8%	1.16×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.5%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.57
Al Taawoun & both teams score	8.1%	8.3%	18.4%	0.45×	12.01
Draw & not both score	6.5%	8.3%	5.3%	1.57×	12.02
Al Taawoun & not both score	6.7%	8.3%	16.8%	0.50×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli & over 1.5	52.5%	48.8%	34.4%	1.42×	2.05
Al Ahli & over 2.5	41.6%	40.2%	27.6%	1.46×	2.49
Al Ahli & under 3.5	37.9%	34.9%	27.3%	1.28×	2.87
Al Ahli & over 3.5	24.3%	21.6%	16.3%	1.32×	4.63
Al Ahli & under 2.5	20.6%	21.6%	16.0%	1.35×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.5%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.5%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Al Taawoun & over 1.5	11.1%	12.8%	28.4%	0.45×	7.79
Al Taawoun & under 3.5	10.9%	12.8%	21.5%	0.60×	7.79
Al Ahli & under 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	9.2%	0.86×	12.63
Al Taawoun & over 2.5	9.0%	7.9%	23.1%	0.34×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	5.3%	1.50×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.5%	7.9%	5.9%	1.34×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	5.9%	1.34×	12.63
Al Taawoun & under 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	12.1%	0.66×	12.63
Al Taawoun & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	13.7%	0.35×	20.81
Al Taawoun & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	6.8%	0.71×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (1UP)	74.3%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Al Taawoun (1UP)	32.9%	33.0%	—	—	3.04

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (2UP)	62.2%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Al Taawoun (2UP)	14.8%	14.4%	—	—	6.97

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli to win 2nd half	50.5%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
2nd half drawn	32.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Al Taawoun to win 2nd half	17.0%	18.1%	—	—	5.52

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.7%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Al Taawoun under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Al Taawoun over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Al Taawoun over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.3%	12.9%	—	—	7.78

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Al Ahli under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.0%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Al Ahli over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.0%	29.4%	—	—	3.41
Al Ahli under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.41

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (+0.5)	85.2%	88.4%	65.0%	1.36×	1.13
Al Taawoun (+2.5)	80.3%	82.5%	90.5%	0.91×	1.21
Al Ahli (-0.5)	62.2%	62.9%	43.5%	1.45×	1.59
Al Taawoun (+1.5)	60.9%	62.9%	77.8%	0.81×	1.59
Al Ahli (-1.5)	39.1%	37.1%	22.2%	1.67×	2.70
Al Taawoun (+0.5)	37.8%	37.1%	56.5%	0.66×	2.70
Al Ahli (-2.5)	19.7%	17.5%	9.5%	1.84×	5.72
Al Taawoun (-0.5)	14.8%	11.6%	35.0%	0.33×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun to concede	86.8%	86.3%	78.1%	1.10×	1.16
Al Taawoun clean sheet	13.2%	13.7%	21.9%	0.63×	7.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun to concede in 1st half	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Al Taawoun clean sheet in 1st half	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun to concede in 2nd half	68.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Al Taawoun clean sheet in 2nd half	31.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.93

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun under 6.5 corners	88.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Al Taawoun under 5.5 corners	80.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Al Taawoun under 4.5 corners	67.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Al Taawoun over 2.5 corners	67.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Al Taawoun under 3.5 corners	51.3%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Al Taawoun over 3.5 corners	48.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Al Taawoun under 2.5 corners	32.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Al Taawoun over 4.5 corners	32.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Al Taawoun over 5.5 corners	19.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Al Taawoun over 6.5 corners	11.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.5%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Al Taawoun under 2.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	82.6%	1.12×	1.08
Al Taawoun under 1.5 goals	77.1%	76.3%	60.9%	1.25×	1.31
Al Taawoun over 0.5 goals	59.5%	59.4%	73.0%	0.81×	1.68
Al Taawoun under 0.5 goals	40.5%	40.6%	27.0%	1.50×	2.47
Al Taawoun over 1.5 goals	22.9%	23.7%	39.1%	0.61×	4.21
Al Taawoun over 2.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	17.4%	0.44×	13.07
Al Taawoun over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.5%	6.9%	0.36×	39.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Al Taawoun under 0.5 in 1st half	69.7%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Al Taawoun over 0.5 in 1st half	30.3%	30.2%	—	—	3.32
Al Taawoun over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	5.9%	—	—	16.94

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun scores equally in both	48.8%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Al Taawoun scores more in 2nd half	31.8%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
Al Taawoun scores more in 1st half	19.3%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (away no bet)	73.0%	68.4%	66.8%	1.02×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	27.0%	31.6%	33.2%	0.95×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun even goals	58.2%	57.0%	52.4%	1.09×	1.76
Al Taawoun odd goals	41.8%	43.1%	47.6%	0.90×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.4%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.4%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.6%	31.5%	—	—	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.3%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Al Ahli to score 2+ in a row	52.8%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Al Ahli to score 3+ in a row	24.7%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Al Taawoun to score 2+ in a row	15.1%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Al Taawoun to score 3+ in a row	2.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.93

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli corners (+3.5)	92.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Al Ahli corners (+2.5)	87.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Al Ahli corners (+1.5)	80.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Al Taawoun corners (+3.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Al Taawoun corners (+2.5)	62.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Al Taawoun corners (+1.5)	51.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Al Ahli corners (-1.5)	48.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Al Ahli corners (-2.5)	37.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Al Ahli corners (-3.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Al Taawoun corners (-1.5)	19.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Al Taawoun corners (-2.5)	12.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Al Taawoun corners (-3.5)	7.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.1%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	60.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	50.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	22.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.0%	11.5%	10.7%	1.07×	8.72
2-0	11.0%	11.5%	6.9%	1.65×	8.72
1-0	9.7%	7.4%	9.2%	0.80×	13.50
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	8.5%	0.88×	13.50
0-0	6.5%	7.4%	5.3%	1.40×	13.51
3-0	7.4%	7.4%	3.2%	2.33×	13.51
3-1	6.7%	7.4%	5.1%	1.44×	13.51
Any other score	5.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
0-1	3.7%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.30
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.31
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.32
1-2	4.4%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.29
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.32
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.35×	58.29
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.42×	58.32
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.84×	58.32
4-0	3.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.30
4-1	3.4%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.30
4-2	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.84×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.68×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (2nd half DNB)	74.8%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Al Taawoun (2nd half DNB)	25.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli leading at HT (DNB)	76.0%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
Al Taawoun leading at HT (DNB)	24.0%	25.0%	—	—	3.99

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli or draw (1X)	85.2%	86.5%	65.0%	1.33×	1.16
Al Ahli or Al Taawoun (12)	77.0%	75.6%	78.4%	0.96×	1.32
Al Taawoun or draw (X2)	37.8%	41.8%	56.5%	0.74×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli or draw at HT	85.5%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Al Ahli or Al Taawoun at HT	60.5%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Al Taawoun or draw at HT	54.0%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli or draw (1UP)	85.2%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Al Taawoun or draw (1UP)	37.8%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli or draw in 2nd half	83.0%	81.9%	—	—	1.22
Al Ahli or Al Taawoun in 2nd half	67.4%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Al Taawoun or draw in 2nd half	49.5%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.9%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	42.1%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (DNB)	80.8%	80.2%	55.4%	1.45×	1.25
Al Taawoun (DNB)	19.2%	19.8%	44.6%	0.44×	5.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli to score first	64.6%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Al Taawoun to score first	28.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
No goal scored	6.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.8%	51.3%	56.3%	0.91×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.2%	48.7%	43.7%	1.12×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.8%	41.6%	45.8%	0.91×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	33.0%	34.5%	33.1%	1.04×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	14.2%	12.4%	10.7%	1.15×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	12.4%	10.7%	1.15×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.3%	85.6%	83.5%	1.02×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.7%	14.4%	16.5%	0.87×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.0%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.0%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.2%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.1%	6.8%	—	—	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.2%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.4%	57.3%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	41.6%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.5%	47.2%	43.5%	1.09×	2.12
4-6 goals	30.7%	30.7%	32.9%	0.93×	3.26
0-1 goals	19.9%	20.3%	21.0%	0.96×	4.94
7+ goals	3.0%	1.8%	2.9%	0.64×	54.20

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun to score exactly 0	40.5%	37.3%	27.0%	1.38×	2.68
Al Taawoun to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	34.0%	1.06×	2.78
Al Taawoun to score exactly 2	16.5%	19.6%	21.9%	0.89×	5.11
Al Taawoun to score 3+	6.4%	8.5%	17.4%	0.49×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli to score 3+	32.9%	32.6%	21.1%	1.54×	3.07
Al Ahli to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
Al Ahli to score exactly 1	26.8%	26.5%	32.5%	0.82×	3.77
Al Ahli to score exactly 0	13.2%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli leading at HT	46.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Draw at HT	39.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Al Taawoun leading at HT	14.5%	12.4%	—	—	8.06

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli -1: 1	39.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Al Ahli -1: 2	37.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Al Ahli -1: X	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (0:1)	39.1%	37.4%	22.2%	1.68×	2.68
Al Taawoun (0:1)	37.8%	37.3%	56.5%	0.66×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.1%	24.2%	21.5%	1.13×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun (0:2)	60.9%	67.0%	77.8%	0.86×	1.49
Al Ahli (0:2)	19.7%	15.3%	9.5%	1.61×	6.53
Draw (0:2)	19.4%	15.3%	12.8%	1.19×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun (0:3)	80.3%	85.3%	90.5%	0.94×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.5%	9.9%	5.6%	1.78×	10.07
Al Ahli (0:3)	8.3%	5.8%	4.1%	1.43×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun (0:4)	91.7%	94.5%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.3%	4.6%	2.9%	1.60×	21.80
Al Ahli (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	1.4%	0.90×	81.78

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (1:0)	85.2%	86.0%	65.0%	1.32×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.7%	6.9%	17.7%	0.39×	14.46
Al Taawoun (1:0)	5.1%	6.9%	17.5%	0.39×	14.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli (2:0)	94.9%	94.0%	82.5%	1.14×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	3.9%	2.3%	10.6%	0.22×	43.59
Al Taawoun (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.75

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.3%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	25.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli to concede	59.5%	60.7%	73.0%	0.83×	1.65
Al Ahli clean sheet	40.5%	39.3%	27.0%	1.45×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli clean sheet in 1st half	69.7%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Al Ahli to concede in 1st half	30.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.35

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli clean sheet in 2nd half	58.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Al Ahli to concede in 2nd half	41.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli over 2.5 corners	83.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Al Ahli under 6.5 corners	71.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Al Ahli over 3.5 corners	69.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Al Ahli under 5.5 corners	59.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Al Ahli over 4.5 corners	55.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Al Ahli under 4.5 corners	45.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Al Ahli over 5.5 corners	40.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Al Ahli under 3.5 corners	30.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Al Ahli over 6.5 corners	28.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Al Ahli under 2.5 corners	16.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli over 0.5 goals	86.8%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Al Ahli under 3.5 goals	85.3%	87.2%	92.0%	0.95×	1.15
Al Ahli under 2.5 goals	67.1%	68.0%	78.9%	0.86×	1.47
Al Ahli over 1.5 goals	60.0%	63.6%	45.8%	1.39×	1.57
Al Ahli under 1.5 goals	40.0%	36.4%	54.2%	0.67×	2.75
Al Ahli over 2.5 goals	32.9%	32.0%	21.1%	1.52×	3.12
Al Ahli over 3.5 goals	14.7%	12.8%	8.0%	1.59×	7.84
Al Ahli under 0.5 goals	13.2%	12.7%	21.9%	0.58×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli under 1.5 in 1st half	78.4%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Al Ahli over 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Al Ahli under 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Al Ahli over 1.5 in 1st half	21.6%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli scores more in 2nd half	42.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Al Ahli scores equally in both	30.2%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
Al Ahli scores more in 1st half	27.5%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	60.8%	60.0%	38.1%	1.57×	1.67
Al Taawoun (home no bet)	39.2%	40.0%	61.9%	0.65×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli even goals	50.9%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Al Ahli odd goals	49.1%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.4%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
HT 1-0	25.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
HT 2-0	11.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-1	10.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	9.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
Any other HT score	6.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli at HT / Al Ahli at FT	40.0%	40.9%	—	—	2.45
Draw at HT / Al Ahli at FT	19.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Al Taawoun at HT / Al Taawoun at FT	7.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Draw at HT / Al Taawoun at FT	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Al Ahli at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.62
Al Taawoun at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Al Taawoun at HT / Al Ahli at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Al Ahli at HT / Al Taawoun at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli to score last	64.8%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Al Taawoun to score last	28.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
No goal scored	6.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.5%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Al Ahli to lead by 1 at any time	74.3%	74.4%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.3%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Al Ahli to lead by 2 at any time	45.5%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Al Taawoun to lead by 1 at any time	32.9%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.6%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Al Ahli to lead by 3 at any time	22.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Al Taawoun to lead by 2 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.84
Al Taawoun to lead by 3 at any time	2.0%	1.6%	—	—	62.71

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli most corners	60.0%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Al Taawoun most corners	29.1%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.8%	87.4%	87.2%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.2%	78.7%	76.3%	1.03×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.2%	78.7%	75.5%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.5%	72.4%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.9%	63.3%	59.8%	1.06×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.8%	59.1%	59.2%	1.00×	1.69
3-6 goals	53.0%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.4%	48.5%	48.8%	0.99×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.5%	48.5%	43.5%	1.11×	2.06
3-4 goals	38.8%	39.2%	37.2%	1.06×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.5%	39.2%	38.5%	1.02×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.7%	35.2%	32.9%	1.07×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.0%	30.2%	28.1%	1.08×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.3%	14.8%	16.6%	0.89×	6.75
7+ goals	3.0%	2.6%	2.9%	0.89×	39.09

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli never behind	60.6%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Al Taawoun never behind	19.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.5%	50.9%	50.3%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.5%	49.1%	49.7%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.8%	82.3%	80.7%	1.02×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.1%	82.3%	79.0%	1.04×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	66.4%	66.3%	64.4%	1.03×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.0%	58.6%	56.3%	1.04×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	44.0%	41.4%	43.7%	0.95×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	33.6%	33.7%	35.7%	0.95×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	19.9%	17.7%	21.0%	0.84×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	17.2%	17.7%	19.3%	0.92×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	5.3%	1.46×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.9%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.5%	92.4%	91.3%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.4%	75.9%	76.9%	0.99×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.8%	72.4%	72.9%	0.99×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.7%	55.8%	55.0%	1.01×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.3%	44.2%	45.0%	0.98×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.2%	27.6%	27.1%	1.02×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.6%	24.1%	23.1%	1.04×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.5%	7.6%	8.7%	0.87×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.1%	2.8%	3.0%	0.93×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.9%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.1%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.23

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.2%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.9%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	47.1%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.1%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun not to score in both halves	87.3%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Al Ahli not to score in both halves	60.2%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Al Ahli to score in both halves	39.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Al Taawoun to score in both halves	12.7%	14.5%	—	—	6.92

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.8%	53.9%	56.3%	0.96×	1.86
Only Al Ahli scores	34.0%	33.3%	21.9%	1.52×	3.00
Only Al Taawoun scores	6.7%	7.1%	16.8%	0.42×	14.05
Neither team scores	6.5%	7.1%	5.3%	1.35×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.1%	22.6%	22.8%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	20.8%	1.08×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.4%	17.5%	16.5%	1.06×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.3%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	9.6%	7.6%	11.8%	0.65×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.7%	7.6%	7.7%	0.99×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.5%	7.6%	5.3%	1.44×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.4%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	22.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.3%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.8%	16.5%	—	—	6.07

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun not to win both halves	97.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Al Ahli not to win both halves	76.5%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Al Ahli to win both halves	23.5%	24.7%	—	—	4.05
Al Taawoun to win both halves	2.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.75

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli to win either half	73.0%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Al Taawoun to win neither half	71.1%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Al Taawoun to win either half	28.9%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Al Ahli to win neither half	27.0%	26.9%	—	—	3.71

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Taawoun not to win to nil	93.3%	92.1%	83.2%	1.11×	1.09
Al Ahli not to win to nil	66.0%	69.6%	78.1%	0.89×	1.44
Al Ahli to win to nil	34.0%	30.4%	21.9%	1.39×	3.29
Al Taawoun to win to nil	6.7%	7.9%	16.8%	0.47×	12.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Ahli by 1	23.1%	24.1%	21.5%	1.12×	4.15
Draw	23.0%	24.1%	21.6%	1.12×	4.15
Al Ahli by 3+	19.7%	17.1%	9.5%	1.79×	5.86
Al Ahli by 2	19.4%	17.1%	12.8%	1.33×	5.87
Al Taawoun by 1	9.7%	7.2%	17.7%	0.41×	13.90
Al Taawoun by 2	3.9%	2.7%	10.6%	0.26×	36.78
Al Taawoun by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.86