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Al Ettifaq v Al Hazem — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 26 November 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627

KSA-Pro League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Al Ettifaq win
47.1%
model 47.8%
Draw
26.5%
model 26.3%
Al Hazem win
26.5%
model 26.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.3%
  2. 2-1 9.5%
  3. 2-0 7.7%
  4. 1-0 7.6%
  5. 1-2 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.556.9% Under 2.543.1%
BTTS yes59.7% BTTS no40.3%
Al Ettifaq 1+82.3% Al Ettifaq 2+51.7%
Al Hazem 1+70.9% Al Hazem 2+35.0%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.23. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
78/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Al Ettifaq or draw (1X)
Double chance · usually 65%
72.7% fair odds 1.38
moderate signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Al Ettifaq not to win both halves
Win both halves
83.4% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Al Ettifaq carry the stronger rating, 1522 Elo against 1489.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Al Ettifaq have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 26.5% for Al Hazem. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.73 for Al Ettifaq and 1.23 for Al Hazem.

Why Al Ettifaq

Al Ettifaq carry the stronger rating, 1522 Elo against 1489.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Al Hazem can win

Nothing in the data singles out Al Hazem.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Al Ettifaq, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Al Hazem, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Al Ettifaq: 54% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Hazem: 45% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Ettifaq's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Al Ettifaq are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.73–1.23 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.71–1.35 1-1 12% 59% 62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to win 44.6% 43.0% 43.5% 0.99× 2.33
Al Hazem to win 29.2% 27.9% 35.0% 0.80× 3.58
Draw 26.2% 27.9% 21.6% 1.29× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq & both teams score 24.7% 21.8% 21.8% 1.00× 4.58
Draw & both teams score 20.2% 21.8% 16.5% 1.32× 4.59
Al Ettifaq & not both score 19.9% 18.0% 21.9% 0.82× 5.56
Al Hazem & both teams score 17.0% 18.0% 18.4% 0.98× 5.57
Al Hazem & not both score 12.1% 13.3% 16.8% 0.79× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.0% 8.3% 5.3% 1.57× 12.02
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq & over 1.5 37.9% 34.9% 34.4% 1.01× 2.87
Al Ettifaq & over 2.5 31.1% 30.8% 27.6% 1.11× 3.25
Al Ettifaq & under 3.5 26.7% 26.1% 27.3% 0.95× 3.84
Al Hazem & over 1.5 24.1% 21.6% 28.4% 0.76× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 20.2% 21.6% 16.5% 1.31× 4.63
Al Hazem & over 2.5 19.8% 18.0% 23.1% 0.78× 5.56
Al Hazem & under 3.5 18.6% 18.0% 21.5% 0.84× 5.56
Al Ettifaq & over 3.5 17.9% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.1% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.1% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Al Ettifaq & under 2.5 13.6% 12.8% 16.0% 0.80× 7.79
Al Hazem & over 3.5 10.6% 12.8% 13.7% 0.93× 7.79
Al Hazem & under 2.5 9.3% 7.9% 12.1% 0.66× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 8.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.34× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 8.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.34× 12.63
Al Ettifaq & under 1.5 6.7% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 5.3% 1.50× 12.63
Al Hazem & under 1.5 5.0% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (1UP) 62.2% 62.8% — — 1.59
Al Hazem (1UP) 49.1% 44.0% — — 2.27
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (2UP) 44.6% 47.3% — — 2.12
Al Hazem (2UP) 29.2% 25.3% — — 3.96
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to win 2nd half 37.6% 36.0% — — 2.78
2nd half drawn 33.8% 34.4% — — 2.91
Al Hazem to win 2nd half 28.7% 25.9% — — 3.86
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.5% 84.1% — — 1.19
Al Hazem over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.6% 54.5% — — 1.84
Al Hazem under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.4% 45.5% — — 2.20
Al Hazem over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.5% 15.9% — — 6.29
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.6% 74.1% — — 1.35
Al Ettifaq over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.2% 63.3% — — 1.58
Al Ettifaq under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.8% 36.7% — — 2.72
Al Ettifaq over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.4% 25.9% — — 3.86
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem (+2.5) 89.6% 88.5% 90.5% 0.98× 1.13
Al Hazem (+1.5) 75.7% 78.5% 77.8% 1.01× 1.27
Al Ettifaq (+0.5) 70.8% 73.6% 65.0% 1.13× 1.36
Al Hazem (+0.5) 55.4% 57.0% 56.5% 1.01× 1.75
Al Ettifaq (-0.5) 44.6% 43.0% 43.5% 0.99× 2.33
Al Hazem (-0.5) 29.2% 26.4% 35.0% 0.75× 3.79
Al Ettifaq (-1.5) 24.3% 21.5% 22.2% 0.97× 4.65
Al Ettifaq (-2.5) 10.4% 11.5% 9.5% 1.21× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem to concede 81.9% 81.5% 78.1% 1.04× 1.23
Al Hazem clean sheet 18.1% 18.5% 21.9% 0.84× 5.41
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem to concede in 1st half 52.0% 50.7% — — 1.97
Al Hazem clean sheet in 1st half 48.0% 49.3% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem to concede in 2nd half 62.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
Al Hazem clean sheet in 2nd half 37.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem under 6.5 corners 83.4% 81.4% — — 1.23
Al Hazem over 2.5 corners 73.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
Al Hazem under 5.5 corners 73.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Al Hazem under 4.5 corners 59.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
Al Hazem over 3.5 corners 56.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
Al Hazem under 3.5 corners 43.3% 42.8% — — 2.33
Al Hazem over 4.5 corners 40.3% 42.8% — — 2.34
Al Hazem over 5.5 corners 26.7% 28.4% — — 3.52
Al Hazem under 2.5 corners 26.3% 28.4% — — 3.52
Al Hazem over 6.5 corners 16.6% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem under 3.5 goals 95.2% 97.5% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
Al Hazem under 2.5 goals 84.5% 81.5% 82.6% 0.99× 1.23
Al Hazem over 0.5 goals 74.1% 71.9% 73.0% 0.99× 1.39
Al Hazem under 1.5 goals 60.9% 63.2% 60.9% 1.04× 1.58
Al Hazem over 1.5 goals 39.1% 36.8% 39.1% 0.94× 2.71
Al Hazem under 0.5 goals 25.9% 28.1% 27.0% 1.04× 3.56
Al Hazem over 2.5 goals 15.5% 18.5% 17.4% 1.07× 5.40
Al Hazem over 3.5 goals 4.8% 2.5% 6.9% 0.36× 39.79
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem under 1.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.3% — — 1.12
Al Hazem under 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 62.0% — — 1.61
Al Hazem over 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 38.0% — — 2.63
Al Hazem over 1.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.7% — — 9.33
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem scores more in 2nd half 38.9% 37.4% — — 2.67
Al Hazem scores equally in both 38.5% 37.4% — — 2.68
Al Hazem scores more in 1st half 22.5% 22.1% — — 4.52
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (away no bet) 63.0% 61.9% 66.8% 0.93× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 37.0% 38.1% 33.2% 1.15× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem even goals 53.3% 52.6% 52.4% 1.00× 1.90
Al Hazem odd goals 46.7% 47.4% 47.6% 1.00× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 80.6% 82.8% — — 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 19.4% 17.2% — — 5.83
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 71.0% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.0% 32.7% — — 3.06
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 61.7% 60.0% — — 1.67
Al Ettifaq to score 2+ in a row 41.2% 38.6% — — 2.59
Al Hazem to score 2+ in a row 29.0% 25.2% — — 3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row 23.6% 19.6% — — 5.09
Al Ettifaq to score 3+ in a row 15.6% 16.2% — — 6.17
Al Hazem to score 3+ in a row 8.5% 5.6% — — 17.88
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq corners (+3.5) 87.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
Al Hazem corners (+3.5) 81.8% 79.8% — — 1.25
Al Ettifaq corners (+2.5) 80.1% 79.8% — — 1.25
Al Hazem corners (+2.5) 73.4% 70.7% — — 1.41
Al Ettifaq corners (+1.5) 71.0% 70.7% — — 1.41
Al Hazem corners (+1.5) 63.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Al Ettifaq corners (-1.5) 36.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Al Hazem corners (-1.5) 29.0% 29.3% — — 3.42
Al Ettifaq corners (-2.5) 26.6% 29.3% — — 3.42
Al Hazem corners (-2.5) 19.9% 20.2% — — 4.94
Al Ettifaq corners (-3.5) 18.2% 20.2% — — 4.94
Al Hazem corners (-3.5) 13.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 50.2% 45.2% — — 2.21
9-11 corners 28.6% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 21.2% 25.6% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.2% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 78.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 70.8% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 61.3% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 61.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 8.5 corners 50.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 49.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 38.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 38.7% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 29.2% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 21.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 14.8% 16.9% — — 5.91
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.1% 11.5% 10.7% 1.07× 8.72
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 8.5% 0.88× 13.50
1-0 6.7% 7.4% 9.2% 0.80× 13.51
1-2 7.3% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.51
2-0 6.8% 7.4% 6.9% 1.07× 13.51
0-0 6.0% 7.4% 5.3% 1.40× 13.51
0-1 5.0% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
2-2 6.3% 7.4% 4.8% 1.53× 13.51
3-1 5.3% 7.4% 5.1% 1.44× 13.51
0-2 4.3% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.30
0-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.76× 58.31
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.32
1-3 3.3% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.30
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.31
2-3 2.8% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.30
2-4 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.42× 58.31
3-0 3.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.30
3-2 3.6% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.30
3-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.31
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.32
4-0 1.7% 1.7% 2.1% 0.81× 58.31
4-1 2.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.31
4-2 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.31
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.68× 58.32
Any other score 4.2% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (2nd half DNB) 56.7% 59.7% — — 1.68
Al Hazem (2nd half DNB) 43.3% 40.3% — — 2.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq leading at HT (DNB) 60.1% 65.4% — — 1.53
Al Hazem leading at HT (DNB) 39.9% 34.6% — — 2.89
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq or Al Hazem (12) 73.8% 72.1% 78.4% 0.92× 1.39
Al Ettifaq or draw (1X) 70.8% 72.1% 65.0% 1.11× 1.39
Al Hazem or draw (X2) 55.4% 57.0% 56.5% 1.01× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq or draw at HT 76.3% 79.2% — — 1.26
Al Hazem or draw at HT 64.3% 61.4% — — 1.63
Al Ettifaq or Al Hazem at HT 59.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq or draw (1UP) 70.8% 79.6% — — 1.26
Al Hazem or draw (1UP) 55.4% 62.9% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq or draw in 2nd half 71.3% 74.1% — — 1.35
Al Ettifaq or Al Hazem in 2nd half 66.2% 65.6% — — 1.52
Al Hazem or draw in 2nd half 62.5% 64.0% — — 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.2% 58.5% — — 1.71
Neither half drawn 40.8% 41.5% — — 2.41
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (DNB) 60.5% 62.7% 55.4% 1.13× 1.60
Al Hazem (DNB) 39.5% 37.3% 44.6% 0.84× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to score first 52.5% 53.3% — — 1.87
Al Hazem to score first 41.5% 41.6% — — 2.40
No goal scored 6.0% 7.4% — — 13.50
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 62.0% 56.6% 56.3% 1.01× 1.77
Not both teams to score 38.0% 43.4% 43.7% 0.99× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 49.9% 44.4% 45.8% 0.97× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 28.9% 33.3% 33.1% 1.01× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 12.1% 12.4% 10.7% 1.15× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 9.1% 8.3% 10.7% 0.77× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.1% 82.6% 83.5% 0.99× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 19.9% 17.4% 16.5% 1.06× 5.74
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 65.0% 65.7% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 35.0% 34.3% — — 2.92
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 50.5% 54.6% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 27.5% 27.2% — — 3.68
Both score 1st half only 14.4% 10.8% — — 9.28
Both score in both halves 7.5% 6.8% — — 14.69
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.0% 81.0% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 22.0% 19.0% — — 5.27
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.6% 59.6% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 39.4% 40.4% — — 2.48
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.6% 47.2% 43.5% 1.08× 2.12
4-6 goals 33.0% 30.7% 32.9% 0.93× 3.25
0-1 goals 17.7% 20.2% 21.0% 0.96× 4.94
7+ goals 3.7% 1.8% 2.9% 0.64× 54.13
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem to score exactly 1 35.0% 33.9% 34.0% 1.00× 2.95
Al Hazem to score exactly 0 25.9% 27.4% 27.0% 1.01× 3.66
Al Hazem to score exactly 2 23.6% 22.3% 21.9% 1.02× 4.48
Al Hazem to score 3+ 15.5% 19.6% 17.4% 1.13× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to score exactly 1 31.0% 32.5% 32.5% 1.00× 3.07
Al Ettifaq to score exactly 2 26.4% 26.5% 24.8% 1.07× 3.77
Al Ettifaq to score 3+ 24.5% 23.3% 21.1% 1.10× 4.29
Al Ettifaq to score exactly 0 18.1% 18.8% 21.9% 0.86× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Al Ettifaq leading at HT 35.7% 38.6% — — 2.59
Al Hazem leading at HT 23.7% 20.8% — — 4.81
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq -1: 2 55.4% 56.7% — — 1.76
Al Ettifaq -1: 1 24.3% 23.5% — — 4.25
Al Ettifaq -1: X 20.3% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem (0:1) 55.4% 55.8% 56.5% 0.99× 1.79
Al Ettifaq (0:1) 24.3% 24.2% 22.2% 1.09× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 20.3% 24.2% 21.5% 1.13× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem (0:2) 75.7% 79.3% 77.8% 1.02× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.9% 11.0% 12.8% 0.86× 9.09
Al Ettifaq (0:2) 10.4% 11.0% 9.5% 1.15× 9.11
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem (0:3) 89.6% 90.7% 90.5% 1.00× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 6.7% 5.8% 5.6% 1.04× 17.22
Al Ettifaq (0:3) 3.7% 2.4% 4.1% 0.58× 42.05
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem (0:4) 96.3% 98.1% 95.9% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.6% 1.2% 2.9% 0.43× 81.81
Al Ettifaq (0:4) 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 0.90× 81.98
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (1:0) 70.8% 72.4% 65.0% 1.11× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 15.8% 17.1% 17.7% 0.97× 5.85
Al Hazem (1:0) 13.4% 12.7% 17.5% 0.73× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (2:0) 86.6% 88.5% 82.5% 1.07× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.7% 6.4% 10.6% 0.60× 15.67
Al Hazem (2:0) 4.7% 2.3% 7.1% 0.32× 43.54
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.3% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.5% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 25.1% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to concede 74.1% 73.2% 73.0% 1.00× 1.37
Al Ettifaq clean sheet 25.9% 26.8% 27.0% 0.99× 3.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq clean sheet in 1st half 58.2% 62.0% — — 1.61
Al Ettifaq to concede in 1st half 41.8% 38.0% — — 2.63
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to concede in 2nd half 55.6% 54.9% — — 1.82
Al Ettifaq clean sheet in 2nd half 44.4% 45.1% — — 2.22
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq under 6.5 corners 78.8% 76.5% — — 1.31
Al Ettifaq over 2.5 corners 78.1% 76.5% — — 1.31
Al Ettifaq under 5.5 corners 67.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Al Ettifaq over 3.5 corners 62.4% 62.3% — — 1.61
Al Ettifaq under 4.5 corners 53.6% 52.6% — — 1.90
Al Ettifaq over 4.5 corners 46.4% 47.4% — — 2.11
Al Ettifaq under 3.5 corners 37.6% 37.7% — — 2.65
Al Ettifaq over 5.5 corners 32.3% 33.3% — — 3.01
Al Ettifaq under 2.5 corners 21.9% 23.5% — — 4.26
Al Ettifaq over 6.5 corners 21.2% 23.5% — — 4.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq under 3.5 goals 90.6% 92.2% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Al Ettifaq over 0.5 goals 81.9% 82.2% 78.1% 1.05× 1.22
Al Ettifaq under 2.5 goals 75.5% 77.7% 78.9% 0.99× 1.29
Al Ettifaq over 1.5 goals 50.9% 53.2% 45.8% 1.16× 1.88
Al Ettifaq under 1.5 goals 49.1% 46.8% 54.2% 0.86× 2.14
Al Ettifaq over 2.5 goals 24.5% 22.3% 21.1% 1.05× 4.49
Al Ettifaq under 0.5 goals 18.1% 17.8% 21.9% 0.81× 5.62
Al Ettifaq over 3.5 goals 9.4% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq under 1.5 in 1st half 83.2% 84.0% — — 1.19
Al Ettifaq over 0.5 in 1st half 52.0% 50.5% — — 1.98
Al Ettifaq under 0.5 in 1st half 48.0% 49.5% — — 2.02
Al Ettifaq over 1.5 in 1st half 16.8% 16.0% — — 6.25
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq scores more in 2nd half 39.9% 37.8% — — 2.65
Al Ettifaq scores equally in both 33.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
Al Ettifaq scores more in 1st half 26.6% 27.7% — — 3.61
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem (home no bet) 52.7% 51.4% 61.9% 0.83× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 47.3% 48.6% 38.1% 1.28× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq even goals 51.6% 50.7% 52.7% 0.96× 1.97
Al Ettifaq odd goals 48.4% 49.3% 47.3% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 28.2% 28.3% — — 3.54
HT 1-0 20.3% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 14.9% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 1-1 11.3% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 7.5% 6.9% — — 14.47
Any other HT score 5.5% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 0-2 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.03
HT 2-1 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.03
HT 1-2 3.0% 2.4% — — 42.10
HT 2-2 1.1% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq at HT / Al Ettifaq at FT 27.3% 27.4% — — 3.65
Al Hazem at HT / Al Hazem at FT 15.7% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.2% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / Al Ettifaq at FT 14.5% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Al Hazem at FT 10.9% 12.6% — — 7.91
Al Ettifaq at HT / Draw at FT 5.9% 6.0% — — 16.65
Al Hazem at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% — — 16.68
Al Hazem at HT / Al Ettifaq at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.69
Al Ettifaq at HT / Al Hazem at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.70
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to score last 52.5% 52.1% — — 1.92
Al Hazem to score last 41.5% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 6.0% 7.4% — — 13.50
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.0% 92.7% — — 1.08
Al Ettifaq to lead by 1 at any time 62.2% 61.4% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.4% 50.8% — — 1.97
Al Hazem to lead by 1 at any time 49.1% 44.6% — — 2.24
Al Ettifaq to lead by 2 at any time 31.8% 29.8% — — 3.35
Al Hazem to lead by 2 at any time 19.9% 15.0% — — 6.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.7% 15.0% — — 6.68
Al Ettifaq to lead by 3 at any time 13.1% 10.5% — — 9.55
Al Hazem to lead by 3 at any time 6.5% 6.7% — — 14.95
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq most corners 48.4% 47.0% — — 2.13
Al Hazem most corners 39.9% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 11.7% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.0% 87.4% 87.2% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.6% 78.7% 76.3% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.5% 72.4% 75.5% 0.96× 1.38
2-5 goals 73.3% 72.4% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.8% 63.3% 59.8% 1.06× 1.58
1-3 goals 57.4% 59.1% 59.2% 1.00× 1.69
3-6 goals 55.4% 59.1% 53.6% 1.10× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.0% 53.2% 48.8% 1.09× 1.88
2-3 goals 45.6% 48.5% 43.5% 1.11× 2.06
3-4 goals 39.5% 39.2% 37.2% 1.06× 2.55
1-2 goals 35.0% 39.2% 38.5% 1.02× 2.55
4-6 goals 33.0% 35.2% 32.9% 1.07× 2.84
4-5 goals 27.6% 30.2% 28.1% 1.08× 3.31
5-6 goals 15.8% 18.8% 16.6% 1.13× 5.31
7+ goals 3.7% 2.6% 2.9% 0.89× 39.06
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq never behind 44.9% 48.6% — — 2.06
Al Hazem never behind 31.9% 36.2% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.3% 50.9% 50.3% 1.01× 1.96
Even number of goals 52.7% 49.1% 49.7% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.3% 51.6% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.7% 48.4% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.3% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.7% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 91.0% 92.3% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 82.3% 82.3% 79.0% 1.04× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 80.5% 82.3% 80.7% 1.02× 1.22
Under 3.5 goals 63.4% 61.7% 64.4% 0.96× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 59.0% 58.6% 56.3% 1.04× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 41.0% 41.4% 43.7% 0.95× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 36.6% 38.3% 35.7% 1.07× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 19.5% 17.7% 19.3% 0.92× 5.65
Under 1.5 goals 17.7% 17.7% 21.0% 0.84× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 5.3% 1.46× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.1% 97.2% 97.0% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.9% 86.7% 91.3% 0.95× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 76.9% 75.9% 72.9% 1.04× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 76.5% 75.9% 76.9% 0.99× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.8% 51.9% 55.0% 0.94× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.2% 48.1% 45.0% 1.07× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 23.5% 24.1% 23.1% 1.04× 4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 23.1% 24.1% 27.1% 0.89× 4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.1% 13.3% 8.7% 1.52× 7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.9% 2.8% 3.0% 0.93× 35.55
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.3% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 71.8% 71.6% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 63.3% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 36.7% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half 28.2% 28.4% — — 3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.7% 10.9% — — 9.20
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.8% 83.2% — — 1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.5% 77.6% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.7% 53.0% — — 1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.3% 47.0% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.5% 22.4% — — 4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.2% 16.8% — — 5.97
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem not to score in both halves 76.8% 78.5% — — 1.27
Al Ettifaq not to score in both halves 67.6% 69.9% — — 1.43
Al Ettifaq to score in both halves 32.4% 30.1% — — 3.32
Al Hazem to score in both halves 23.2% 21.5% — — 4.65
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 62.0% 60.3% 56.3% 1.07× 1.66
Only Al Ettifaq scores 19.9% 16.0% 21.9% 0.73× 6.24
Only Al Hazem scores 12.1% 11.0% 16.8% 0.66× 9.06
Neither team scores 6.0% 7.1% 5.3% 1.35× 14.05
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.3% 22.6% 22.8% 0.99× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 20.8% 1.08× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.1% 17.5% 16.5% 1.06× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 11.8% 12.1% 15.9% 0.76× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 10.5% 12.1% 11.8% 1.03× 8.25
6 or more goals 9.0% 7.6% 7.7% 0.99× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 6.0% 7.6% 5.3% 1.44× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 28.2% 28.5% — — 3.51
2 goals in 1st half 22.9% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 13.7% 10.8% — — 9.28
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.7% 51.2% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 29.1% 29.3% — — 3.42
No goals in 2nd half 17.2% 16.4% — — 6.09
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem not to win both halves 93.0% 94.1% — — 1.06
Al Ettifaq not to win both halves 86.4% 87.9% — — 1.14
Al Ettifaq to win both halves 13.6% 12.1% — — 8.27
Al Hazem to win both halves 7.0% 5.9% — — 17.02
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to win either half 59.6% 59.2% — — 1.69
Al Hazem to win neither half 54.6% 54.3% — — 1.84
Al Hazem to win either half 45.4% 45.7% — — 2.19
Al Ettifaq to win neither half 40.4% 40.8% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hazem not to win to nil 87.9% 88.1% 83.2% 1.06× 1.14
Al Ettifaq not to win to nil 80.1% 83.1% 78.1% 1.06× 1.20
Al Ettifaq to win to nil 19.9% 16.9% 21.9% 0.77× 5.91
Al Hazem to win to nil 12.1% 11.9% 16.8% 0.71× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.2% 27.9% 21.6% 1.29× 3.59
Al Ettifaq by 1 20.3% 24.1% 21.5% 1.12× 4.15
Al Hazem by 1 15.8% 17.0% 17.7% 0.96× 5.87
Al Ettifaq by 2 13.9% 11.8% 12.8% 0.92× 8.51
Al Ettifaq by 3+ 10.4% 11.8% 9.5% 1.23× 8.51
Al Hazem by 2 8.7% 7.2% 10.6% 0.68× 13.90
Al Hazem by 3+ 4.7% 2.7% 7.1% 0.38× 36.76
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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