Al Faisaly v Al Nassr FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 23 October 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627
KSA-Pro League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-2 11.9%
- 0-3 10.1%
- 1-2 9.0%
- 0-1 8.5%
- 1-1 7.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 64.2% | Under 2.5 | 35.8% |
| BTTS yes | 49.9% | BTTS no | 50.1% |
| Al Faisaly 1+ | 53.3% | Al Faisaly 2+ | 17.7% |
| Al Nassr FC 1+ | 92.2% | Al Nassr FC 2+ | 72.2% |
Expected goals 0.76 – 2.55. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Al Nassr FC carry the stronger rating, 1821 Elo against 1465.
- Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Al Faisaly have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Al Nassr FC have an estimated 75.2% win probability, against 16.6% for the draw and 8.2% for Al Faisaly. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.76 for Al Faisaly and 2.54 for Al Nassr FC.
Why Al Faisaly
Nothing in the data singles out Al Faisaly.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 16.6%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.
Why Al Nassr FC can win
Al Nassr FC carry the stronger rating, 1821 Elo against 1465. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Al Faisaly, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Al Nassr FC, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Al Faisaly: 49% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Nassr FC: 55% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 8.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Al Nassr FC are the model's most likely outcome at 75.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 11.9%. Confidence 64/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 0.73–2.57 | 0-2 12% | 64% | 49% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.