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Al Kholood v Al Hilal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 26 November 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627

KSA-Pro League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Al Kholood win
7.1%
model 9.2%
Draw
17.8%
model 17.5%
Al Hilal win
75.1%
model 73.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-2 11.3%
  2. 0-3 9.4%
  3. 1-2 9.2%
  4. 1-1 8.2%
  5. 0-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.564.7% Under 2.535.3%
BTTS yes52.3% BTTS no47.7%
Al Kholood 1+55.9% Al Kholood 2+19.8%
Al Hilal 1+91.9% Al Hilal 2+71.5%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
76/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Al Hilal (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 35%
73.2% fair odds 1.37
strong signal · 1214 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Al Kholood not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Al Hilal carry the stronger rating, 1819 Elo against 1483.
  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Al Hilal have an estimated 75.1% win probability, against 17.8% for the draw and 7.1% for Al Kholood. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.82 for Al Kholood and 2.51 for Al Hilal.

Why Al Kholood

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.8%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Al Hilal can win

Al Hilal carry the stronger rating, 1819 Elo against 1483. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Al Kholood, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Al Hilal, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Al Kholood: 33% possession, 7.0 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Hilal: 57% possession, 19.2 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Al Hilal are the model's most likely outcome at 75.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 11.3%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.82–2.51 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.93–3.08 0-3 9% 76% 58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal to win 79.2% 78.4% 35.0% 2.24× 1.28
Draw 13.4% 13.5% 21.6% 0.62× 7.41
Al Kholood to win 7.4% 8.1% 43.5% 0.19× 12.32
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal & both teams score 42.0% 40.0% 18.4% 2.17× 2.50
Al Hilal & not both score 37.2% 33.3% 16.8% 1.99× 3.00
Draw & both teams score 10.9% 13.3% 16.5% 0.81× 7.54
Al Kholood & both teams score 5.2% 8.3% 21.8% 0.38× 12.02
Draw & not both score 2.5% 4.8% 5.3% 0.92× 20.62
Al Kholood & not both score 2.2% 4.8% 21.9% 0.22× 20.63
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal & over 1.5 74.2% 67.8% 28.4% 2.39× 1.48
Al Hilal & over 2.5 65.6% 67.5% 23.1% 2.92× 1.48
Al Hilal & over 3.5 48.6% 45.1% 13.7% 3.28× 2.22
Al Hilal & under 3.5 30.6% 30.8% 21.5% 1.43× 3.25
Al Hilal & under 2.5 13.7% 12.8% 12.1% 1.06× 7.79
Draw & over 1.5 10.9% 12.8% 16.5% 0.78× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 8.3% 7.9% 15.9% 0.50× 12.63
Draw & under 3.5 8.3% 7.9% 15.9% 0.50× 12.63
Al Kholood & over 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 34.4% 0.23× 12.63
Al Kholood & over 2.5 5.5% 7.9% 27.6% 0.29× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.34× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.34× 12.63
Al Hilal & under 1.5 5.0% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Al Kholood & under 3.5 4.5% 4.8% 27.3% 0.18× 20.81
Al Kholood & over 3.5 2.9% 4.8% 16.3% 0.29× 20.82
Draw & under 1.5 2.5% 4.8% 5.3% 0.91× 20.82
Al Kholood & under 2.5 1.8% 4.8% 16.0% 0.30× 20.83
Al Kholood & under 1.5 1.1% 4.8% 9.2% 0.52× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (1UP) 87.6% 90.7% — — 1.10
Al Kholood (1UP) 26.2% 26.6% — — 3.76
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (2UP) 79.2% 78.0% — — 1.28
Al Kholood (2UP) 7.4% 8.2% — — 12.14
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal to win 2nd half 69.1% 63.5% — — 1.57
2nd half drawn 21.3% 24.0% — — 4.16
Al Kholood to win 2nd half 9.6% 7.6% — — 13.13
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.2% 84.3% — — 1.19
Al Hilal over 1.5 in 2nd half 55.0% 54.4% — — 1.84
Al Hilal under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.0% 45.6% — — 2.20
Al Hilal under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.8% 15.7% — — 6.38
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood under 1.5 in 2nd half 90.1% 93.4% — — 1.07
Al Kholood under 0.5 in 2nd half 59.0% 58.0% — — 1.72
Al Kholood over 0.5 in 2nd half 41.0% 42.0% — — 2.38
Al Kholood over 1.5 in 2nd half 9.9% 6.6% — — 15.23
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (+2.5) 99.4% 96.3% 90.5% 1.06× 1.04
Al Hilal (+1.5) 97.6% 96.3% 77.8% 1.24× 1.04
Al Hilal (+0.5) 92.6% 92.1% 56.5% 1.63× 1.09
Al Hilal (-0.5) 79.2% 78.5% 35.0% 2.24× 1.27
Al Kholood (+0.5) 20.8% 21.5% 65.0% 0.33× 4.65
Al Kholood (-0.5) 7.4% 7.9% 43.5% 0.18× 12.69
Al Kholood (-1.5) 2.4% 3.7% 22.2% 0.17× 27.15
Al Kholood (-2.5) 0.6% 3.7% 9.5% 0.39× 27.27
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal to concede 60.3% 67.5% 78.1% 0.86× 1.48
Al Hilal clean sheet 39.7% 32.5% 21.9% 1.48× 3.08
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal clean sheet in 1st half 67.2% 70.8% — — 1.41
Al Hilal to concede in 1st half 32.8% 29.2% — — 3.42
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal clean sheet in 2nd half 59.0% 57.3% — — 1.74
Al Hilal to concede in 2nd half 41.0% 42.7% — — 2.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal over 2.5 corners 88.1% 85.2% — — 1.17
Al Hilal over 3.5 corners 77.2% 76.0% — — 1.32
Al Hilal over 4.5 corners 64.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Al Hilal under 6.5 corners 62.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
Al Hilal over 5.5 corners 50.5% 53.0% — — 1.89
Al Hilal under 5.5 corners 49.5% 47.0% — — 2.13
Al Hilal over 6.5 corners 37.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Al Hilal under 4.5 corners 35.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Al Hilal under 3.5 corners 22.8% 24.0% — — 4.17
Al Hilal under 2.5 corners 11.9% 14.8% — — 6.78
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal over 0.5 goals 95.4% 97.5% 73.0% 1.34× 1.03
Al Hilal over 1.5 goals 81.2% 81.5% 39.1% 2.08× 1.23
Al Hilal under 3.5 goals 63.1% 63.2% 93.1% 0.68× 1.58
Al Hilal over 2.5 goals 59.3% 59.4% 17.4% 3.42× 1.68
Al Hilal under 2.5 goals 40.7% 40.6% 82.6% 0.49× 2.47
Al Hilal over 3.5 goals 36.9% 36.8% 6.9% 5.30× 2.72
Al Hilal under 1.5 goals 18.8% 18.5% 60.9% 0.30× 5.39
Al Hilal under 0.5 goals 4.6% 2.5% 27.0% 0.09× 39.80
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal under 1.5 in 1st half 65.1% 69.5% — — 1.44
Al Hilal over 0.5 in 1st half 70.8% 68.4% — — 1.46
Al Hilal under 0.5 in 1st half 29.2% 31.6% — — 3.17
Al Hilal over 1.5 in 1st half 34.9% 30.5% — — 3.28
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal scores more in 2nd half 51.7% 50.9% — — 1.97
Al Hilal scores more in 1st half 25.5% 26.1% — — 3.83
Al Hilal scores equally in both 22.8% 22.1% — — 4.52
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 64.5% 62.0% 33.2% 1.87× 1.61
Al Kholood (away no bet) 35.5% 38.0% 66.8% 0.57× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal even goals 50.1% 52.6% 52.4% 1.00× 1.90
Al Hilal odd goals 49.9% 47.4% 47.6% 1.00× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 66.8% 68.3% — — 1.46
Both halves over 1.5 goals 33.2% 31.7% — — 3.16
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 84.1% 79.0% — — 1.27
Both halves under 1.5 goals 15.9% 21.0% — — 4.75
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 80.3% 79.7% — — 1.26
Al Hilal to score 2+ in a row 75.0% 75.2% — — 1.33
Either team to score 3+ in a row 49.4% 46.2% — — 2.16
Al Hilal to score 3+ in a row 47.6% 46.1% — — 2.17
Al Kholood to score 2+ in a row 13.2% 12.1% — — 8.29
Al Kholood to score 3+ in a row 2.2% 2.5% — — 39.36
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal corners (+3.5) 96.3% 95.7% — — 1.05
Al Hilal corners (+2.5) 93.2% 89.6% — — 1.12
Al Hilal corners (+1.5) 88.4% 84.5% — — 1.18
Al Hilal corners (-1.5) 61.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
Al Kholood corners (+3.5) 60.6% 61.8% — — 1.62
Al Hilal corners (-2.5) 50.4% 52.4% — — 1.91
Al Kholood corners (+2.5) 49.6% 47.6% — — 2.10
Al Hilal corners (-3.5) 39.4% 38.2% — — 2.62
Al Kholood corners (+1.5) 38.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
Al Kholood corners (-1.5) 11.6% 15.5% — — 6.45
Al Kholood corners (-2.5) 6.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Al Kholood corners (-3.5) 3.7% 4.3% — — 23.44
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 47.2% 41.8% — — 2.39
9-11 corners 28.9% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 23.9% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.8% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 76.1% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 67.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 63.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 58.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 52.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 47.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 42.0% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 7.5 corners 36.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 32.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 23.9% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 17.2% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 19.8% 13.9% 5.6% 2.48× 7.22
0-2 8.7% 7.4% 5.4% 1.36× 13.51
0-3 8.9% 7.4% 2.3% 3.27× 13.51
0-4 6.9% 7.4% 1.1% 7.00× 13.51
1-2 8.0% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.51
1-3 8.2% 7.4% 3.9% 1.89× 13.51
0-1 5.0% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
1-1 5.8% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
1-4 6.3% 7.4% 1.1% 7.00× 13.51
0-0 2.5% 1.7% 5.3% 0.32× 58.31
1-0 1.1% 1.7% 9.2% 0.19× 58.31
2-0 0.8% 1.7% 6.9% 0.25× 58.31
2-1 2.4% 1.7% 8.5% 0.20× 58.31
2-2 3.7% 1.7% 4.8% 0.35× 58.30
2-3 3.8% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.30
2-4 2.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.42× 58.30
3-0 0.2% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.32
3-1 0.7% 1.7% 5.1% 0.33× 58.32
3-2 1.1% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.31
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.31
3-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.31
4-0 0.1% 1.7% 2.1% 0.81× 58.32
4-1 0.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.32
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.32
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.68× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (2nd half DNB) 87.8% 86.8% — — 1.15
Al Kholood (2nd half DNB) 12.2% 13.2% — — 7.60
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal leading at HT (DNB) 82.9% 86.5% — — 1.16
Al Kholood leading at HT (DNB) 17.1% 13.5% — — 7.40
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal or draw (X2) 92.6% 91.9% 56.5% 1.63× 1.09
Al Kholood or Al Hilal (12) 86.6% 86.5% 78.4% 1.10× 1.16
Al Kholood or draw (1X) 20.8% 21.6% 65.0% 0.33× 4.64
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal or draw at HT 88.2% 87.9% — — 1.14
Al Kholood or Al Hilal at HT 69.3% 67.2% — — 1.49
Al Kholood or draw at HT 42.5% 42.1% — — 2.37
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal or draw (1UP) 92.6% 93.8% — — 1.07
Al Kholood or draw (1UP) 26.2% 31.2% — — 3.21
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal or draw in 2nd half 90.4% 92.4% — — 1.08
Al Kholood or Al Hilal in 2nd half 78.7% 76.0% — — 1.32
Al Kholood or draw in 2nd half 30.9% 36.5% — — 2.74
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 55.3% 58.3% — — 1.71
A half drawn 44.7% 41.7% — — 2.40
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (DNB) 91.5% 93.2% 44.6% 2.09× 1.07
Al Kholood (DNB) 8.5% 6.8% 55.4% 0.12× 14.70
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal to score first 75.0% 80.0% — — 1.25
Al Kholood to score first 22.5% 22.7% — — 4.40
No goal scored 2.5% 4.2% — — 23.56
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.2% 55.0% 56.3% 0.98× 1.82
Not both teams to score 41.8% 45.0% 43.7% 1.03× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 52.4% 47.3% 45.8% 1.03× 2.12
Not both score & over 2.5 23.8% 27.8% 10.7% 2.59× 3.60
Not both score & under 2.5 18.0% 21.6% 33.1% 0.65× 4.64
Both score & under 2.5 5.8% 8.3% 10.7% 0.77× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.8% 82.6% 83.5% 0.99× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 19.2% 17.4% 16.5% 1.06× 5.74
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 65.3% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 34.7% 32.7% — — 3.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 49.9% 53.1% — — 1.88
Both score 2nd half only 26.7% 27.1% — — 3.69
Both score 1st half only 15.3% 14.9% — — 6.72
Both score in both halves 8.0% 6.8% — — 14.66
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 76.6% 81.0% — — 1.24
Both teams to score by HT 23.4% 19.0% — — 5.26
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 73.2% 75.0% — — 1.33
A half without a goal 26.8% 25.0% — — 4.00
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 45.8% 47.2% 32.9% 1.43× 2.12
2-3 goals 34.9% 30.8% 43.5% 0.71× 3.25
7+ goals 10.8% 16.9% 2.9% 5.88× 5.92
0-1 goals 8.5% 7.6% 21.0% 0.36× 13.09
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal to score 3+ 59.3% 52.0% 17.4% 2.99× 1.92
Al Hilal to score exactly 2 21.9% 22.3% 21.9% 1.02× 4.49
Al Hilal to score exactly 1 14.2% 12.9% 34.0% 0.38× 7.75
Al Hilal to score exactly 0 4.6% 4.6% 27.0% 0.17× 21.75
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood to score exactly 0 39.7% 35.6% 21.9% 1.63× 2.81
Al Kholood to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.6% 32.5% 1.10× 2.81
Al Kholood to score exactly 2 17.0% 18.8% 24.8% 0.76× 5.33
Al Kholood to score 3+ 6.7% 10.3% 21.1% 0.49× 9.72
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal leading at HT 57.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Draw at HT 30.7% 32.8% — — 3.05
Al Kholood leading at HT 11.8% 12.1% — — 8.25
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal -1: 2 61.4% 62.5% — — 1.60
Al Hilal -1: 1 20.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
Al Hilal -1: X 17.9% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (0:1) 92.6% 87.9% 56.5% 1.56× 1.14
Draw (0:1) 4.9% 5.8% 21.5% 0.27× 17.27
Al Kholood (0:1) 2.4% 5.6% 22.2% 0.25× 17.91
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (0:2) 97.6% 94.3% 77.8% 1.21× 1.06
Draw (0:2) 1.8% 3.7% 12.8% 0.29× 26.77
Al Kholood (0:2) 0.6% 3.7% 9.5% 0.39× 26.84
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (0:3) 99.4% 96.7% 90.5% 1.07× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 0.5% 2.4% 5.6% 0.42× 42.19
Al Kholood (0:3) 0.1% 2.4% 4.1% 0.58× 42.21
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (0:4) 99.9% 98.1% 95.9% 1.02× 1.02
Al Kholood (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 1.4% 0.90× 82.10
Draw (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 2.9% 0.42× 82.09
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (1:0) 61.4% 65.3% 17.5% 3.73× 1.53
Al Kholood (1:0) 20.8% 21.7% 65.0% 0.33× 4.61
Draw (1:0) 17.9% 17.1% 17.7% 0.97× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (2:0) 40.9% 48.7% 7.1% 6.85× 2.06
Al Kholood (2:0) 38.6% 35.1% 82.5% 0.43× 2.85
Draw (2:0) 20.5% 18.9% 10.6% 1.78× 5.30
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 53.7% 50.4% — — 1.98
1st half highest scoring 25.8% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 20.5% 24.4% — — 4.10
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood to concede 95.4% 95.0% 73.0% 1.30× 1.05
Al Kholood clean sheet 4.6% 5.0% 27.0% 0.18× 20.05
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood to concede in 1st half 70.8% 67.2% — — 1.49
Al Kholood clean sheet in 1st half 29.2% 32.8% — — 3.05
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood to concede in 2nd half 84.2% 84.5% — — 1.18
Al Kholood clean sheet in 2nd half 15.8% 15.5% — — 6.44
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood under 6.5 corners 93.2% 89.2% — — 1.12
Al Kholood under 5.5 corners 86.9% 86.2% — — 1.16
Al Kholood under 4.5 corners 76.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
Al Kholood under 3.5 corners 61.1% 62.2% — — 1.61
Al Kholood over 2.5 corners 58.4% 57.5% — — 1.74
Al Kholood under 2.5 corners 41.6% 42.5% — — 2.35
Al Kholood over 3.5 corners 38.9% 37.8% — — 2.65
Al Kholood over 4.5 corners 23.5% 23.5% — — 4.26
Al Kholood over 5.5 corners 13.1% 13.8% — — 7.27
Al Kholood over 6.5 corners 6.8% 10.8% — — 9.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood under 3.5 goals 98.5% 96.4% 92.0% 1.05× 1.04
Al Kholood under 2.5 goals 93.3% 92.2% 78.9% 1.17× 1.08
Al Kholood under 1.5 goals 76.3% 77.7% 54.2% 1.43× 1.29
Al Kholood over 0.5 goals 60.3% 63.6% 78.1% 0.81× 1.57
Al Kholood under 0.5 goals 39.7% 36.4% 21.9% 1.66× 2.75
Al Kholood over 1.5 goals 23.7% 22.3% 45.8% 0.49× 4.49
Al Kholood over 2.5 goals 6.7% 7.8% 21.1% 0.37× 12.89
Al Kholood over 3.5 goals 1.5% 3.6% 8.0% 0.45× 27.60
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood under 1.5 in 1st half 93.9% 94.8% — — 1.05
Al Kholood under 0.5 in 1st half 67.2% 69.1% — — 1.45
Al Kholood over 0.5 in 1st half 32.8% 30.9% — — 3.23
Al Kholood over 1.5 in 1st half 6.1% 5.2% — — 19.37
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood scores equally in both 48.4% 47.2% — — 2.12
Al Kholood scores more in 2nd half 30.3% 33.1% — — 3.02
Al Kholood scores more in 1st half 21.3% 21.2% — — 4.72
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal (home no bet) 85.5% 85.2% 61.9% 1.38× 1.17
Draw (home no bet) 14.5% 14.8% 38.1% 0.39× 6.74
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood even goals 57.9% 55.3% 52.7% 1.05× 1.81
Al Kholood odd goals 42.1% 44.7% 47.3% 0.95× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-1 24.0% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 0-0 19.7% 18.7% — — 5.36
HT 0-2 14.9% 11.0% — — 9.09
Any other HT score 13.4% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 1-1 9.7% 6.9% — — 14.44
HT 1-0 7.7% 6.9% — — 14.47
HT 1-2 5.9% 6.9% — — 14.49
HT 2-1 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.17
HT 2-0 1.6% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT 2-2 1.2% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal at HT / Al Hilal at FT 54.0% 54.3% — — 1.84
Draw at HT / Al Hilal at FT 20.7% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 7.3% 6.0% — — 16.61
Al Kholood at HT / Al Hilal at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.62
Al Kholood at HT / Al Kholood at FT 4.0% 3.5% — — 28.64
Al Kholood at HT / Draw at FT 3.3% 3.5% — — 28.67
Al Hilal at HT / Draw at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.69
Draw at HT / Al Kholood at FT 2.6% 3.5% — — 28.69
Al Hilal at HT / Al Kholood at FT 0.7% 3.5% — — 28.76
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal to score last 75.1% 75.8% — — 1.32
Al Kholood to score last 22.4% 25.5% — — 3.91
No goal scored 2.5% 4.2% — — 23.56
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.5% 95.7% — — 1.05
Al Hilal to lead by 1 at any time 87.6% 91.3% — — 1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 73.4% 74.3% — — 1.35
Al Hilal to lead by 2 at any time 67.9% 69.5% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 46.4% 44.5% — — 2.25
Al Hilal to lead by 3 at any time 45.1% 44.5% — — 2.25
Al Kholood to lead by 1 at any time 26.2% 25.5% — — 3.93
Al Kholood to lead by 2 at any time 6.1% 6.7% — — 14.97
Al Kholood to lead by 3 at any time 1.2% 1.6% — — 63.48
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal most corners 72.4% 70.5% — — 1.42
Al Kholood most corners 18.5% 19.2% — — 5.20
Corners level 9.0% 8.4% — — 11.97
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 80.6% 83.4% 76.3% 1.09× 1.20
1-5 goals 76.2% 78.7% 87.2% 0.90× 1.27
2-5 goals 70.2% 72.4% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
3-6 goals 65.4% 68.8% 53.6% 1.28× 1.45
1-4 goals 60.5% 63.3% 75.5% 0.84× 1.58
3-5 goals 54.9% 53.2% 48.8% 1.09× 1.88
2-4 goals 54.5% 53.2% 59.8% 0.89× 1.88
4-6 goals 45.8% 48.5% 32.9% 1.47× 2.06
1-3 goals 40.9% 43.6% 59.2% 0.74× 2.30
3-4 goals 39.2% 39.2% 37.2% 1.06× 2.55
4-5 goals 35.3% 39.2% 28.1% 1.40× 2.55
2-3 goals 34.9% 35.2% 43.5% 0.81× 2.84
5-6 goals 26.2% 30.2% 16.6% 1.82× 3.31
1-2 goals 21.3% 24.5% 38.5% 0.64× 4.09
7+ goals 10.8% 14.8% 2.9% 5.16× 6.76
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal never behind 71.4% 77.2% — — 1.30
Al Kholood never behind 9.9% 5.2% — — 19.15
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.7% 50.9% 50.3% 1.01× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.3% 49.1% 49.7% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.1% 51.5% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.9% 48.5% — — 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.9% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.1% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.5% 95.4% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 79.0% 1.17× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 78.7% 77.3% 92.3% 0.84× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 76.2% 77.3% 56.3% 1.37× 1.29
Under 4.5 goals 63.0% 61.7% 80.7% 0.77× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 56.6% 58.6% 35.7% 1.64× 1.71
Under 3.5 goals 43.4% 41.4% 64.4% 0.64× 2.42
Over 4.5 goals 37.0% 38.3% 19.3% 1.98× 2.61
Under 2.5 goals 23.8% 22.7% 43.7% 0.52× 4.41
Over 5.5 goals 21.3% 22.7% 7.7% 2.95× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 21.0% 0.37× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 2.5% 4.6% 5.3% 0.86× 21.88
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 89.9% 86.7% 72.9% 1.19× 1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 87.9% 86.7% 97.0% 0.89× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 74.7% 72.4% 91.3% 0.79× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 70.4% 72.4% 45.0% 1.61× 1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 53.9% 51.9% 76.9% 0.68× 1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 46.1% 48.1% 23.1% 2.08× 2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 29.6% 27.6% 55.0% 0.50× 3.62
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 25.3% 27.6% 8.7% 3.16× 3.63
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 12.1% 13.3% 3.0% 4.40× 7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 10.1% 13.3% 27.1% 0.49× 7.55
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 80.3% 85.7% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half 77.6% 78.4% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 51.4% 54.5% — — 1.84
Over 1.5 in 1st half 48.6% 45.5% — — 2.20
Over 2.5 in 1st half 22.4% 21.6% — — 4.62
Under 0.5 in 1st half 19.7% 14.3% — — 6.98
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 90.5% 89.5% — — 1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 68.7% 68.9% — — 1.45
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 57.8% 54.9% — — 1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 42.2% 45.1% — — 2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 31.3% 31.1% — — 3.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 9.5% 10.5% — — 9.48
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood not to score in both halves 86.6% 85.5% — — 1.17
Al Hilal to score in both halves 59.6% 58.3% — — 1.72
Al Hilal not to score in both halves 40.4% 41.7% — — 2.40
Al Kholood to score in both halves 13.4% 14.5% — — 6.89
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.2% 58.6% 56.3% 1.04× 1.71
Only Al Hilal scores 37.2% 39.9% 16.8% 2.38× 2.51
Neither team scores 2.5% 4.6% 5.3% 0.87× 21.75
Only Al Kholood scores 2.2% 4.6% 21.9% 0.21× 21.76
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 21.3% 22.6% 7.7% 2.93× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 19.6% 17.5% 20.8% 0.84× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 19.6% 17.5% 16.5% 1.06× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 15.7% 17.5% 11.8% 1.48× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 15.3% 17.5% 22.8% 0.77× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 6.1% 7.6% 15.9% 0.48× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 2.5% 4.5% 5.3% 0.84× 22.40
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 31.7% 35.8% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 26.1% 28.4% — — 3.52
3+ goals in 1st half 22.4% 21.5% — — 4.66
No goals in 1st half 19.7% 15.7% — — 6.36
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 68.7% 62.0% — — 1.61
1 goal in 2nd half 21.7% 22.9% — — 4.36
No goals in 2nd half 9.5% 10.7% — — 9.34
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood not to win both halves 98.8% 97.2% — — 1.03
Al Hilal not to win both halves 60.1% 67.8% — — 1.48
Al Hilal to win both halves 39.9% 32.2% — — 3.10
Al Kholood to win both halves 1.2% 2.8% — — 36.33
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal to win either half 86.7% 92.0% — — 1.09
Al Kholood to win neither half 79.7% 80.1% — — 1.25
Al Kholood to win either half 20.3% 19.9% — — 5.02
Al Hilal to win neither half 13.3% 8.0% — — 12.53
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Kholood not to win to nil 97.8% 96.2% 78.1% 1.23× 1.04
Al Hilal not to win to nil 62.8% 66.6% 83.2% 0.80× 1.50
Al Hilal to win to nil 37.2% 33.4% 16.8% 1.99× 2.99
Al Kholood to win to nil 2.2% 3.8% 21.9% 0.17× 26.24
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Hilal by 3+ 40.9% 34.7% 7.1% 4.89× 2.88
Al Hilal by 2 20.5% 24.1% 10.6% 2.28× 4.15
Al Hilal by 1 17.9% 17.0% 17.7% 0.96× 5.87
Draw 13.4% 11.8% 21.6% 0.54× 8.51
Al Kholood by 1 4.9% 2.7% 21.5% 0.13× 36.75
Al Kholood by 2 1.8% 2.7% 12.8% 0.21× 36.85
Al Kholood by 3+ 0.6% 2.7% 9.5% 0.28× 36.89
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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