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Al Taawoun v Al Ettifaq — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627

KSA-Pro League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Al Taawoun win
39.8%
model 37.5%
Draw
28.9%
model 28.4%
Al Ettifaq win
31.2%
model 34.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.5%
  2. 2-1 8.5%
  3. 1-2 8.1%
  4. 0-0 7.8%
  5. 1-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.552.0% Under 2.548.0%
BTTS yes57.4% BTTS no42.6%
Al Taawoun 1+75.8% Al Taawoun 2+41.4%
Al Ettifaq 1+73.8% Al Ettifaq 2+38.8%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.34. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
83/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Under 3.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 64%
71.9% fair odds 1.39
moderate signal · 1675 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Al Ettifaq (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 78%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Al Taawoun.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Al Taawoun have an estimated 39.8% win probability, against 31.2% for Al Ettifaq and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Al Taawoun and 1.34 for Al Ettifaq.

Why Al Taawoun

Nothing in the data singles out Al Taawoun.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.42 to 1.34. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Al Ettifaq can win

Al Ettifaq carry the stronger rating, 1522 Elo against 1470.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Al Taawoun, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Al Ettifaq, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Al Taawoun: 58% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Ettifaq: 54% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Al Taawoun are the model's most likely outcome at 39.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.42–1.34 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.46–1.23 1-1 14% 50% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun to win 41.0% 42.9% 43.5% 0.99× 2.33
Al Ettifaq to win 30.3% 30.4% 35.0% 0.87× 3.29
Draw 28.6% 27.9% 21.6% 1.29× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun & not both score 21.0% 21.8% 21.9% 0.99× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 20.3% 21.8% 16.5% 1.32× 4.59
Al Taawoun & both teams score 20.0% 18.0% 21.8% 0.83× 5.56
Al Ettifaq & both teams score 15.4% 18.0% 18.4% 0.97× 5.57
Al Ettifaq & not both score 15.0% 13.3% 16.8% 0.79× 7.54
Draw & not both score 8.3% 8.3% 5.3% 1.58× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun & over 1.5 32.6% 30.8% 34.4% 0.89× 3.25
Al Taawoun & under 3.5 28.2% 26.1% 27.3% 0.95× 3.84
Al Taawoun & over 2.5 25.3% 26.1% 27.6% 0.94× 3.84
Al Ettifaq & over 1.5 23.4% 21.6% 28.4% 0.76× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 21.9% 21.6% 15.9% 1.36× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 21.9% 21.6% 15.9% 1.36× 4.63
Al Ettifaq & under 3.5 21.6% 21.6% 21.5% 1.01× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 20.3% 21.6% 16.5% 1.31× 4.63
Al Ettifaq & over 2.5 18.3% 18.0% 23.1% 0.78× 5.56
Al Taawoun & under 2.5 15.7% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Al Taawoun & over 3.5 12.9% 12.8% 16.3% 0.79× 7.79
Al Ettifaq & under 2.5 12.0% 12.8% 12.1% 1.06× 7.79
Al Ettifaq & over 3.5 8.7% 7.9% 13.7% 0.58× 12.63
Al Taawoun & under 1.5 8.5% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 8.3% 7.9% 5.3% 1.50× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 5.9% 1.34× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.7% 7.9% 5.9% 1.34× 12.63
Al Ettifaq & under 1.5 6.9% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun (1UP) 57.7% 57.9% — — 1.73
Al Ettifaq (1UP) 48.4% 43.9% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun (2UP) 41.0% 47.0% — — 2.13
Al Ettifaq (2UP) 30.3% 30.1% — — 3.32
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 36.7% 36.4% — — 2.75
Al Taawoun to win 2nd half 34.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
Al Ettifaq to win 2nd half 28.9% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq under 1.5 in 2nd half 83.2% 84.2% — — 1.19
Al Ettifaq over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Al Ettifaq under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
Al Ettifaq over 1.5 in 2nd half 16.8% 15.8% — — 6.31
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun under 1.5 in 2nd half 79.7% 75.4% — — 1.33
Al Taawoun over 0.5 in 2nd half 56.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Al Taawoun under 0.5 in 2nd half 43.5% 42.1% — — 2.38
Al Taawoun over 1.5 in 2nd half 20.3% 24.6% — — 4.06
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (+2.5) 92.1% 92.1% 90.5% 1.02× 1.09
Al Ettifaq (+1.5) 79.4% 78.5% 77.8% 1.01× 1.27
Al Taawoun (+0.5) 69.7% 68.7% 65.0% 1.06× 1.46
Al Ettifaq (+0.5) 59.0% 57.1% 56.5% 1.01× 1.75
Al Taawoun (-0.5) 41.0% 42.9% 43.5% 0.99× 2.33
Al Ettifaq (-0.5) 30.3% 31.3% 35.0% 0.89× 3.19
Al Taawoun (-1.5) 20.6% 21.5% 22.2% 0.97× 4.65
Al Taawoun (-2.5) 7.9% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to concede 76.8% 78.7% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
Al Ettifaq clean sheet 23.2% 21.3% 21.9% 0.97× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq clean sheet in 1st half 53.4% 50.9% — — 1.97
Al Ettifaq to concede in 1st half 46.6% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to concede in 2nd half 56.5% 57.2% — — 1.75
Al Ettifaq clean sheet in 2nd half 43.5% 42.8% — — 2.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq under 6.5 corners 82.9% 81.4% — — 1.23
Al Ettifaq over 2.5 corners 74.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Al Ettifaq under 5.5 corners 72.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
Al Ettifaq under 4.5 corners 59.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Al Ettifaq over 3.5 corners 57.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Al Ettifaq under 3.5 corners 42.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Al Ettifaq over 4.5 corners 41.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Al Ettifaq over 5.5 corners 27.3% 28.4% — — 3.52
Al Ettifaq under 2.5 corners 25.7% 28.4% — — 3.53
Al Ettifaq over 6.5 corners 17.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq under 3.5 goals 96.4% 97.5% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
Al Ettifaq under 2.5 goals 87.4% 87.8% 82.6% 1.06× 1.14
Al Ettifaq over 0.5 goals 70.7% 71.8% 73.0% 0.98× 1.39
Al Ettifaq under 1.5 goals 65.3% 68.0% 60.9% 1.12× 1.47
Al Ettifaq over 1.5 goals 34.7% 32.0% 39.1% 0.82× 3.12
Al Ettifaq under 0.5 goals 29.3% 28.2% 27.0% 1.04× 3.55
Al Ettifaq over 2.5 goals 12.6% 12.2% 17.4% 0.70× 8.20
Al Ettifaq over 3.5 goals 3.6% 2.5% 6.9% 0.36× 39.78
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq under 1.5 in 1st half 91.3% 93.9% — — 1.07
Al Ettifaq under 0.5 in 1st half 61.2% 63.1% — — 1.58
Al Ettifaq over 0.5 in 1st half 38.8% 36.9% — — 2.71
Al Ettifaq over 1.5 in 1st half 8.7% 6.1% — — 16.36
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq scores equally in both 40.9% 43.6% — — 2.29
Al Ettifaq scores more in 2nd half 37.3% 37.3% — — 2.68
Al Ettifaq scores more in 1st half 21.8% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun (away no bet) 58.9% 57.4% 66.8% 0.86× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.1% 42.6% 33.2% 1.28× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq even goals 54.3% 52.7% 52.4% 1.00× 1.90
Al Ettifaq odd goals 45.7% 47.4% 47.6% 1.00× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.7% 87.8% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.3% 12.2% — — 8.18
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.7% 57.6% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.3% 42.4% — — 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.8% 51.0% — — 1.96
Al Taawoun to score 2+ in a row 34.5% 29.0% — — 3.45
Al Ettifaq to score 2+ in a row 26.3% 24.9% — — 4.01
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.8% 16.2% — — 6.18
Al Taawoun to score 3+ in a row 11.7% 12.1% — — 8.24
Al Ettifaq to score 3+ in a row 7.4% 5.5% — — 18.19
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun corners (+3.5) 87.6% 84.5% — — 1.18
Al Taawoun corners (+2.5) 81.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Al Ettifaq corners (+3.5) 80.0% 74.8% — — 1.34
Al Taawoun corners (+1.5) 72.3% 70.8% — — 1.41
Al Ettifaq corners (+2.5) 71.3% 70.8% — — 1.41
Al Ettifaq corners (+1.5) 61.0% 61.8% — — 1.62
Al Taawoun corners (-1.5) 39.0% 38.2% — — 2.62
Al Taawoun corners (-2.5) 28.7% 29.2% — — 3.42
Al Ettifaq corners (-1.5) 27.7% 29.2% — — 3.42
Al Taawoun corners (-3.5) 20.0% 25.2% — — 3.97
Al Ettifaq corners (-2.5) 19.0% 20.2% — — 4.94
Al Ettifaq corners (-3.5) 12.4% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 47.2% 41.7% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 23.6% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 83.2% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 76.4% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 68.0% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 64.1% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 58.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 52.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 47.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 41.9% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 35.9% 36.7% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 32.0% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 23.6% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 16.8% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.7% 11.5% 10.7% 1.07× 8.71
1-0 8.5% 7.4% 9.2% 0.80× 13.51
2-1 8.9% 7.4% 8.5% 0.88× 13.51
0-0 8.3% 7.4% 5.3% 1.40× 13.51
0-1 6.9% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
1-2 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.51
2-0 7.3% 7.4% 6.9% 1.07× 13.51
0-2 5.1% 7.4% 5.4% 1.36× 13.51
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 4.8% 1.53× 13.51
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.76× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.32
1-3 3.1% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.30
1-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.31
2-3 2.2% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.42× 58.32
3-0 3.5% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.30
3-1 4.3% 1.7% 5.1% 0.33× 58.29
3-2 2.7% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.30
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.32
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 0.81× 58.31
4-1 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.31
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 1.1% 1.62× 58.31
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.68× 58.32
Any other score 2.5% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun (2nd half DNB) 54.3% 54.7% — — 1.83
Al Ettifaq (2nd half DNB) 45.7% 45.3% — — 2.21
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun leading at HT (DNB) 57.9% 55.6% — — 1.80
Al Ettifaq leading at HT (DNB) 42.1% 44.4% — — 2.25
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun or Al Ettifaq (12) 71.4% 72.1% 78.4% 0.92× 1.39
Al Taawoun or draw (1X) 69.7% 69.6% 65.0% 1.07× 1.44
Al Ettifaq or draw (X2) 59.0% 57.1% 56.5% 1.01× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun or draw at HT 76.5% 79.6% — — 1.26
Al Ettifaq or draw at HT 67.6% 67.2% — — 1.49
Al Taawoun or Al Ettifaq at HT 55.9% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun or draw (1UP) 69.7% 76.5% — — 1.31
Al Ettifaq or draw (1UP) 59.0% 63.1% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun or draw in 2nd half 71.1% 73.9% — — 1.35
Al Ettifaq or draw in 2nd half 65.6% 66.0% — — 1.52
Al Taawoun or Al Ettifaq in 2nd half 63.3% 63.6% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.0% 61.4% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.0% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun (DNB) 57.5% 58.1% 55.4% 1.05× 1.72
Al Ettifaq (DNB) 42.5% 41.9% 44.6% 0.94× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun to score first 49.8% 46.0% — — 2.18
Al Ettifaq to score first 41.9% 41.6% — — 2.40
No goal scored 8.3% 7.6% — — 13.16
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.7% 55.0% 56.3% 0.98× 1.82
Not both teams to score 44.3% 45.0% 43.7% 1.03× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.0% 41.6% 45.8% 0.91× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 36.0% 38.4% 33.1% 1.16× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 13.7% 12.4% 10.7% 1.15× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.2% 8.3% 10.7% 0.77× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.1% 85.6% 83.5% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.9% 14.4% 16.5% 0.88× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.1% 73.5% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.9% 26.5% — — 3.78
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.1% 60.1% — — 1.66
Both score 2nd half only 24.6% 21.3% — — 4.69
Both score 1st half only 13.0% 10.7% — — 9.31
Both score in both halves 5.3% 6.7% — — 14.84
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.7% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 18.3% 16.6% — — 6.03
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 54.0% 52.7% — — 1.90
A half without a goal 46.0% 47.3% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.1% 47.2% 43.5% 1.08× 2.12
4-6 goals 26.3% 26.6% 32.9% 0.81× 3.76
0-1 goals 23.7% 22.9% 21.0% 1.09× 4.36
7+ goals 2.0% 1.8% 2.9% 0.64× 54.36
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq to score exactly 1 36.0% 35.9% 34.0% 1.06× 2.79
Al Ettifaq to score exactly 0 29.3% 27.5% 27.0% 1.02× 3.64
Al Ettifaq to score exactly 2 22.1% 22.3% 21.9% 1.02× 4.49
Al Ettifaq to score 3+ 12.6% 12.9% 17.4% 0.74× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun to score exactly 1 33.9% 32.6% 32.5% 1.00× 3.07
Al Taawoun to score exactly 2 24.7% 23.3% 24.8% 0.94× 4.29
Al Taawoun to score exactly 0 23.2% 23.3% 21.9% 1.06× 4.29
Al Taawoun to score 3+ 18.1% 18.8% 21.1% 0.89× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.1% 42.6% — — 2.35
Al Taawoun leading at HT 32.4% 32.8% — — 3.05
Al Ettifaq leading at HT 23.5% 20.4% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun -1: 2 59.0% 56.8% — — 1.76
Al Taawoun -1: 1 20.6% 23.5% — — 4.26
Al Taawoun -1: X 20.5% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (0:1) 59.0% 55.9% 56.5% 0.99× 1.79
Al Taawoun (0:1) 20.6% 24.2% 22.2% 1.09× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 20.5% 24.2% 21.5% 1.13× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (0:2) 79.4% 79.4% 77.8% 1.02× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.7% 11.0% 12.8% 0.86× 9.10
Al Taawoun (0:2) 7.9% 7.7% 9.5% 0.81× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (0:3) 92.1% 92.7% 90.5% 1.02× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.4% 5.8% 5.6% 1.04× 17.27
Al Taawoun (0:3) 2.5% 2.4% 4.1% 0.58× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (0:4) 97.5% 98.1% 95.9% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 2.9% 0.43× 81.77
Al Taawoun (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.90× 81.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun (1:0) 69.7% 70.2% 65.0% 1.08× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 17.0% 17.1% 17.7% 0.97× 5.85
Al Ettifaq (1:0) 13.4% 12.7% 17.5% 0.73× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun (2:0) 86.6% 88.5% 82.5% 1.07× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.0% 6.4% 10.6% 0.60× 15.64
Al Ettifaq (2:0) 4.4% 2.3% 7.1% 0.32× 43.65
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.5% 48.5% — — 2.06
Halves equal 27.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun to concede 70.7% 73.0% 73.0% 1.00× 1.37
Al Taawoun clean sheet 29.3% 27.0% 27.0% 1.00× 3.70
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun clean sheet in 1st half 61.2% 63.1% — — 1.59
Al Taawoun to concede in 1st half 38.8% 36.9% — — 2.71
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun to concede in 2nd half 52.1% 52.5% — — 1.91
Al Taawoun clean sheet in 2nd half 47.9% 47.5% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun over 2.5 corners 80.3% 81.0% — — 1.24
Al Taawoun under 6.5 corners 76.0% 76.5% — — 1.31
Al Taawoun over 3.5 corners 65.5% 66.7% — — 1.50
Al Taawoun under 5.5 corners 64.4% 62.3% — — 1.61
Al Taawoun under 4.5 corners 50.1% 52.6% — — 1.90
Al Taawoun over 4.5 corners 49.9% 47.4% — — 2.11
Al Taawoun over 5.5 corners 35.6% 37.7% — — 2.65
Al Taawoun under 3.5 corners 34.5% 33.3% — — 3.00
Al Taawoun over 6.5 corners 24.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Al Taawoun under 2.5 corners 19.7% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun under 3.5 goals 93.9% 92.2% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Al Taawoun under 2.5 goals 81.9% 82.2% 78.9% 1.04× 1.22
Al Taawoun over 0.5 goals 76.8% 77.8% 78.1% 1.00× 1.29
Al Taawoun under 1.5 goals 57.2% 58.7% 54.2% 1.08× 1.71
Al Taawoun over 1.5 goals 42.8% 41.3% 45.8% 0.90× 2.42
Al Taawoun under 0.5 goals 23.2% 22.2% 21.9% 1.02× 4.50
Al Taawoun over 2.5 goals 18.1% 17.8% 21.1% 0.84× 5.62
Al Taawoun over 3.5 goals 6.1% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun under 1.5 in 1st half 86.9% 90.1% — — 1.11
Al Taawoun under 0.5 in 1st half 53.4% 50.7% — — 1.97
Al Taawoun over 0.5 in 1st half 46.6% 49.3% — — 2.03
Al Taawoun over 1.5 in 1st half 13.1% 9.9% — — 10.05
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun scores more in 2nd half 37.5% 38.1% — — 2.62
Al Taawoun scores equally in both 37.1% 38.1% — — 2.63
Al Taawoun scores more in 1st half 25.4% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq (home no bet) 51.5% 51.4% 61.9% 0.83× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 48.5% 48.6% 38.1% 1.27× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun even goals 52.7% 50.8% 52.7% 0.96× 1.97
Al Taawoun odd goals 47.3% 49.2% 47.3% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.9% 33.5% — — 2.99
HT 1-0 20.3% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 15.8% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 10.3% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 6.4% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.4% — — 42.16
Any other HT score 3.9% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT 2-1 3.2% 2.4% — — 42.21
HT 1-2 2.5% 2.4% — — 42.26
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun at HT / Al Taawoun at FT 24.4% 21.7% — — 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.8% 16.8% — — 5.96
Al Ettifaq at HT / Al Ettifaq at FT 16.2% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Al Taawoun at FT 14.4% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Al Ettifaq at FT 11.9% 12.7% — — 7.90
Al Taawoun at HT / Draw at FT 5.8% 6.1% — — 16.53
Al Ettifaq at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.0% — — 16.55
Al Taawoun at HT / Al Ettifaq at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.95
Al Ettifaq at HT / Al Taawoun at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun to score last 49.9% 46.5% — — 2.15
Al Ettifaq to score last 41.8% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 8.3% 7.6% — — 13.16
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.7% 92.5% — — 1.08
Al Taawoun to lead by 1 at any time 57.7% 54.9% — — 1.82
Al Ettifaq to lead by 1 at any time 48.4% 44.4% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.5% 44.3% — — 2.26
Al Taawoun to lead by 2 at any time 26.8% 25.3% — — 3.96
Al Ettifaq to lead by 2 at any time 18.9% 14.9% — — 6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.7% 14.8% — — 6.76
Al Taawoun to lead by 3 at any time 9.9% 6.7% — — 14.93
Al Ettifaq to lead by 3 at any time 5.9% 6.6% — — 15.11
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun most corners 50.4% 51.6% — — 1.94
Al Ettifaq most corners 38.2% 39.4% — — 2.54
Corners level 11.4% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.4% 87.2% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.2% 78.7% 75.5% 1.04× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.3% 72.3% 76.3% 0.95× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.8% 72.3% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
1-3 goals 63.4% 63.3% 59.2% 1.07× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.8% 63.3% 59.8% 1.06× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.3% 48.4% 53.6% 0.90× 2.06
2-3 goals 48.1% 48.4% 43.5% 1.11× 2.06
3-5 goals 44.7% 43.6% 48.8% 0.89× 2.29
1-2 goals 41.4% 43.6% 38.5% 1.13× 2.29
3-4 goals 36.8% 39.2% 37.2% 1.05× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.3% 30.2% 32.9% 0.92× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.7% 24.5% 28.1% 0.87× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.5% 14.8% 16.6% 0.89× 6.76
7+ goals 2.0% 2.6% 2.9% 0.89× 39.18
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun never behind 43.3% 48.8% — — 2.05
Al Ettifaq never behind 34.1% 36.4% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.8% 50.9% 50.3% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.2% 49.1% 49.7% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.8% 57.7% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.2% 42.3% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.2% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.8% 48.0% — — 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.4% 92.3% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 91.7% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.5% 87.6% 80.7% 1.09× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 76.3% 77.3% 79.0% 0.98× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 71.7% 72.5% 64.4% 1.13× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 50.3% 52.5% 56.3% 0.93× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 49.7% 47.5% 43.7% 1.09× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 28.3% 27.5% 35.7% 0.77× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 23.7% 22.7% 21.0% 1.08× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 13.5% 12.4% 19.3% 0.64× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 8.3% 7.7% 5.3% 1.46× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 5.6% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 12.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.9% 97.2% 97.0% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.0% 92.4% 91.3% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 84.2% 81.1% 76.9% 1.05× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 68.0% 67.5% 72.9% 0.93× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.7% 61.9% 55.0% 1.13× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.3% 38.1% 45.0% 0.85× 2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.0% 32.5% 27.1% 1.20× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 15.8% 18.9% 23.1% 0.82× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.0% 7.6% 8.7% 0.87× 13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 0.93× 35.63
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.1% — — 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.0% 68.7% — — 1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.1% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.9% 31.4% — — 3.19
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.0% 31.3% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.9% — — 9.19
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.6% 79.6% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.0% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.0% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.4% 20.4% — — 4.90
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.8% 20.4% — — 4.91
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq not to score in both halves 79.8% 78.5% — — 1.27
Al Taawoun not to score in both halves 73.7% 73.9% — — 1.35
Al Taawoun to score in both halves 26.3% 26.1% — — 3.83
Al Ettifaq to score in both halves 20.2% 21.5% — — 4.66
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.7% 58.5% 56.3% 1.04× 1.71
Only Al Taawoun scores 21.0% 22.2% 21.9% 1.02× 4.50
Only Al Ettifaq scores 15.0% 11.0% 16.8% 0.66× 9.05
Neither team scores 8.3% 7.1% 5.3% 1.35× 14.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.1% 24.9% 22.8% 1.09× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 22.0% 22.6% 20.8% 1.08× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 15.4% 17.5% 15.9% 1.10× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 14.8% 12.1% 16.5% 0.74× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 8.3% 7.6% 5.3% 1.44× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 7.9% 7.6% 11.8% 0.65× 13.14
6 or more goals 5.6% 7.6% 7.7% 0.99× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.0% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 32.9% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 20.7% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 10.3% 10.8% — — 9.27
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.0% 44.7% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 31.7% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 21.4% 22.8% — — 4.38
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq not to win both halves 93.0% 94.2% — — 1.06
Al Taawoun not to win both halves 88.6% 88.0% — — 1.14
Al Taawoun to win both halves 11.4% 12.0% — — 8.33
Al Ettifaq to win both halves 7.0% 5.8% — — 17.15
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Taawoun to win either half 55.4% 59.0% — — 1.70
Al Ettifaq to win neither half 54.6% 54.4% — — 1.84
Al Ettifaq to win either half 45.4% 45.6% — — 2.19
Al Taawoun to win neither half 44.6% 41.0% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Al Ettifaq not to win to nil 85.0% 88.1% 83.2% 1.06× 1.14
Al Taawoun not to win to nil 79.0% 78.1% 78.1% 1.00× 1.28
Al Taawoun to win to nil 21.0% 21.9% 21.9% 1.00× 4.58
Al Ettifaq to win to nil 15.0% 11.9% 16.8% 0.71× 8.40
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.6% 27.9% 21.6% 1.29× 3.59
Al Taawoun by 1 20.5% 24.1% 21.5% 1.12× 4.15
Al Ettifaq by 1 17.0% 17.0% 17.7% 0.96× 5.87
Al Taawoun by 2 12.7% 11.8% 12.8% 0.92× 8.51
Al Ettifaq by 2 9.0% 7.2% 10.6% 0.68× 13.90
Al Taawoun by 3+ 7.9% 7.2% 9.5% 0.76× 13.91
Al Ettifaq by 3+ 4.4% 2.7% 7.1% 0.38× 36.83
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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