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Alanyaspor v Samsunspor — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Alanyaspor win
39.8%
model 38.1%
Draw
28.9%
model 28.4%
Samsunspor win
31.2%
model 33.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.5%
  2. 2-1 8.6%
  3. 1-0 8.1%
  4. 0-0 8.0%
  5. 1-2 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.550.7% Under 2.549.3%
BTTS yes56.2% BTTS no43.8%
Alanyaspor 1+75.4% Alanyaspor 2+40.9%
Samsunspor 1+72.8% Samsunspor 2+37.4%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
1-4 goals
Multi goal · usually 75%
78.8% fair odds 1.27
moderate signal · 2624 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Samsunspor (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 79%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Alanyaspor.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Alanyaspor have an estimated 39.8% win probability, against 31.2% for Samsunspor and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for Alanyaspor and 1.30 for Samsunspor.

Why Alanyaspor

Nothing in the data singles out Alanyaspor.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.40 to 1.30. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Samsunspor can win

Samsunspor carry the stronger rating, 1584 Elo against 1487.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Alanyaspor, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Samsunspor, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Alanyaspor: 41% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Samsunspor: 58% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 20.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Alanyaspor are the model's most likely outcome at 39.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.40–1.30 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.31–1.16 1-1 14% 45% 51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to win 38.6% 36.4% 45.4% 0.80× 2.75
Samsunspor to win 31.5% 30.4% 28.9% 1.05× 3.29
Draw 29.9% 27.9% 25.9% 1.08× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor & not both score 21.6% 21.8% 22.4% 0.97× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 20.0% 21.8% 18.1% 1.20× 4.59
Samsunspor & not both score 17.2% 18.0% 14.4% 1.25× 5.57
Alanyaspor & both teams score 17.1% 18.0% 23.1% 0.78× 5.57
Samsunspor & both teams score 14.3% 13.3% 14.6% 0.91× 7.54
Draw & not both score 9.9% 8.3% 8.0% 1.05× 11.99
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor & over 1.5 28.9% 26.1% 36.2% 0.72× 3.84
Alanyaspor & under 3.5 28.6% 26.1% 29.5% 0.88× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 24.1% 21.6% 20.3% 1.06× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 24.1% 21.6% 20.3% 1.06× 4.63
Samsunspor & under 3.5 23.8% 21.6% 19.6% 1.10× 4.63
Samsunspor & over 1.5 23.0% 21.6% 22.4% 0.97× 4.63
Alanyaspor & over 2.5 21.6% 21.6% 30.3% 0.71× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 20.0% 21.6% 18.1% 1.19× 4.63
Alanyaspor & under 2.5 17.0% 18.0% 15.2% 1.19× 5.56
Samsunspor & over 2.5 17.3% 18.0% 18.1% 0.99× 5.56
Samsunspor & under 2.5 14.2% 12.8% 10.9% 1.18× 7.79
Alanyaspor & over 3.5 10.1% 12.8% 16.1% 0.80× 7.79
Alanyaspor & under 1.5 9.7% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.62
Draw & under 1.5 9.9% 7.9% 8.0% 1.00× 12.62
Samsunspor & under 1.5 8.5% 7.9% 6.6% 1.20× 12.63
Samsunspor & over 3.5 7.7% 7.9% 9.4% 0.84× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.8% 7.9% 5.7% 1.38× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.8% 7.9% 5.7% 1.38× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (1UP) 54.5% 52.5% — — 1.91
Samsunspor (1UP) 48.2% 43.9% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (2UP) 38.6% 37.4% — — 2.67
Samsunspor (2UP) 31.5% 30.2% — — 3.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 38.6% 36.5% — — 2.74
Alanyaspor to win 2nd half 32.2% 34.0% — — 2.94
Samsunspor to win 2nd half 29.2% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.6% 84.2% — — 1.19
Samsunspor over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Samsunspor under 0.5 in 2nd half 49.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
Samsunspor over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.4% 15.8% — — 6.34
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.8% 82.4% — — 1.21
Alanyaspor over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 54.9% — — 1.82
Alanyaspor under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 45.1% — — 2.22
Alanyaspor over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.2% 17.6% — — 5.70
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor (+2.5) 93.6% 92.1% 90.0% 1.02× 1.09
Samsunspor (+1.5) 81.9% 82.6% 78.5% 1.05× 1.21
Alanyaspor (+0.5) 68.5% 68.7% 71.1% 0.97× 1.46
Samsunspor (+0.5) 61.4% 62.9% 54.6% 1.15× 1.59
Alanyaspor (-0.5) 38.6% 37.1% 45.4% 0.82× 2.70
Samsunspor (-0.5) 31.5% 31.3% 28.9% 1.08× 3.19
Alanyaspor (-1.5) 18.1% 17.4% 21.5% 0.81× 5.74
Alanyaspor (-2.5) 6.4% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor to concede 72.9% 76.7% 77.8% 0.99× 1.30
Samsunspor clean sheet 27.1% 23.3% 22.2% 1.05× 4.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor clean sheet in 1st half 57.0% 56.4% — — 1.77
Samsunspor to concede in 1st half 43.0% 43.6% — — 2.29
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor to concede in 2nd half 52.5% 54.4% — — 1.84
Samsunspor clean sheet in 2nd half 47.5% 45.6% — — 2.19
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor under 6.5 corners 90.5% 89.9% — — 1.11
Samsunspor under 5.5 corners 82.8% 81.4% — — 1.23
Samsunspor under 4.5 corners 71.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
Samsunspor over 2.5 corners 64.3% 61.8% — — 1.62
Samsunspor under 3.5 corners 54.8% 53.1% — — 1.88
Samsunspor over 3.5 corners 45.2% 46.9% — — 2.13
Samsunspor under 2.5 corners 35.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
Samsunspor over 4.5 corners 29.0% 28.4% — — 3.52
Samsunspor over 5.5 corners 17.2% 18.6% — — 5.38
Samsunspor over 6.5 corners 9.5% 10.1% — — 9.87
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor under 3.5 goals 97.0% 97.5% 95.3% 1.02× 1.03
Samsunspor under 2.5 goals 88.9% 87.8% 86.2% 1.02× 1.14
Samsunspor over 0.5 goals 68.6% 68.0% 69.8% 0.97× 1.47
Samsunspor under 1.5 goals 67.8% 68.0% 65.2% 1.04× 1.47
Samsunspor over 1.5 goals 32.2% 32.0% 34.8% 0.92× 3.13
Samsunspor under 0.5 goals 31.4% 32.0% 30.2% 1.06× 3.13
Samsunspor over 2.5 goals 11.1% 12.2% 13.8% 0.88× 8.21
Samsunspor over 3.5 goals 3.0% 2.5% 4.7% 0.53× 39.82
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor under 1.5 in 1st half 92.1% 93.9% — — 1.07
Samsunspor under 0.5 in 1st half 63.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Samsunspor over 0.5 in 1st half 37.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Samsunspor over 1.5 in 1st half 7.9% 6.1% — — 16.42
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor scores equally in both 42.4% 43.6% — — 2.29
Samsunspor scores more in 2nd half 36.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
Samsunspor scores more in 1st half 21.4% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (away no bet) 56.4% 57.3% 63.6% 0.90× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 43.6% 42.7% 36.4% 1.17× 2.34
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor even goals 54.9% 52.6% 54.5% 0.97× 1.90
Samsunspor odd goals 45.1% 47.4% 45.5% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 88.5% 88.0% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 11.5% 12.0% — — 8.30
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 58.7% 60.5% — — 1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals 41.3% 39.5% — — 2.53
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 50.3% 50.8% — — 1.97
Alanyaspor to score 2+ in a row 30.2% 28.8% — — 3.47
Samsunspor to score 2+ in a row 24.9% 19.6% — — 5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row 16.0% 16.1% — — 6.20
Alanyaspor to score 3+ in a row 9.4% 5.6% — — 18.01
Samsunspor to score 3+ in a row 6.8% 5.5% — — 18.22
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor corners (+3.5) 93.6% 89.6% — — 1.12
Alanyaspor corners (+2.5) 89.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
Alanyaspor corners (+1.5) 82.4% 79.8% — — 1.25
Samsunspor corners (+3.5) 71.2% 70.7% — — 1.41
Samsunspor corners (+2.5) 60.7% 61.8% — — 1.62
Alanyaspor corners (-1.5) 50.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
Samsunspor corners (+1.5) 49.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
Alanyaspor corners (-2.5) 39.3% 38.2% — — 2.62
Alanyaspor corners (-3.5) 28.8% 29.3% — — 3.42
Samsunspor corners (-1.5) 17.7% 20.2% — — 4.95
Samsunspor corners (-2.5) 11.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Samsunspor corners (-3.5) 6.4% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 50.9% 45.2% — — 2.21
9-11 corners 28.5% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 20.6% 25.6% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.6% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 79.4% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 71.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 61.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 60.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 8.5 corners 50.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 49.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 39.4% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 9.5 corners 38.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 28.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 20.6% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 14.4% 16.9% — — 5.91
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.2% 11.5% 12.5% 0.92× 8.71
0-0 9.9% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.51
0-1 8.5% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
1-0 9.7% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
2-1 8.4% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.51
1-2 7.4% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
2-0 7.3% 7.4% 6.0% 1.23× 13.51
0-2 5.7% 7.4% 4.4% 1.68× 13.51
2-2 4.9% 1.7% 4.6% 0.38× 58.29
0-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.46× 58.32
1-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.30
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.66× 58.31
2-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.94× 58.32
3-0 3.2% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.30
3-1 3.7% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.30
3-2 2.1% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.29× 58.31
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 3.88× 58.32
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.97× 58.31
4-1 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.46× 58.32
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 11.64× 58.32
Any other score 1.7% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (2nd half DNB) 52.5% 54.6% — — 1.83
Samsunspor (2nd half DNB) 47.5% 45.4% — — 2.20
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor leading at HT (DNB) 56.2% 55.4% — — 1.81
Samsunspor leading at HT (DNB) 43.8% 44.6% — — 2.24
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor or Samsunspor (12) 70.1% 72.1% 74.1% 0.97× 1.39
Alanyaspor or draw (1X) 68.5% 69.6% 71.1% 0.98× 1.44
Samsunspor or draw (X2) 61.4% 63.6% 54.6% 1.16× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor or draw at HT 76.5% 79.5% — — 1.26
Samsunspor or draw at HT 69.8% 67.3% — — 1.49
Alanyaspor or Samsunspor at HT 53.7% 48.6% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor or draw (1UP) 68.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
Samsunspor or draw (1UP) 61.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor or draw in 2nd half 70.8% 73.9% — — 1.35
Samsunspor or draw in 2nd half 67.8% 66.0% — — 1.52
Alanyaspor or Samsunspor in 2nd half 61.4% 63.5% — — 1.58
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 65.6% 68.0% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 34.4% 32.0% — — 3.13
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (DNB) 55.1% 58.0% 61.1% 0.95× 1.72
Samsunspor (DNB) 44.9% 42.0% 38.9% 1.08× 2.38
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score first 47.8% 45.9% — — 2.18
Samsunspor to score first 42.3% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 9.9% 7.7% — — 13.07
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 51.4% 51.3% 55.5% 0.92× 1.95
Not both teams to score 48.6% 48.7% 44.5% 1.10× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 41.1% 41.6% 33.7% 1.23× 2.41
Both score & over 2.5 37.1% 38.4% 43.2% 0.89× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 14.2% 12.4% 12.5% 0.99× 8.08
Not both score & over 2.5 7.6% 8.3% 10.9% 0.76× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.9% 85.6% 83.4% 1.03× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.1% 14.4% 16.6% 0.86× 6.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.2% 73.7% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 26.8% 26.3% — — 3.80
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 61.3% 65.8% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 22.6% 21.2% — — 4.71
Both score 1st half only 12.0% 10.7% — — 9.31
Both score in both halves 4.2% 4.9% — — 20.30
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.8% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.2% 16.5% — — 6.04
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 50.4% 52.5% — — 1.90
A goal in each half 49.6% 47.5% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.4% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
0-1 goals 28.1% 26.6% 23.6% 1.13× 3.76
4-6 goals 22.2% 22.9% 28.4% 0.81× 4.36
7+ goals 1.3% 1.8% 2.7% 0.69× 54.43
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor to score exactly 1 36.4% 35.9% 35.2% 1.02× 2.78
Samsunspor to score exactly 0 31.4% 33.8% 30.2% 1.12× 2.96
Samsunspor to score exactly 2 21.0% 22.3% 21.1% 1.06× 4.49
Samsunspor to score 3+ 11.1% 12.9% 13.8% 0.93× 7.77
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score exactly 1 35.4% 35.5% 32.0% 1.11× 2.81
Alanyaspor to score exactly 0 27.1% 26.6% 22.2% 1.19× 3.77
Alanyaspor to score exactly 2 23.1% 23.3% 23.9% 0.98× 4.29
Alanyaspor to score 3+ 14.4% 14.3% 22.2% 0.64× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 46.3% 51.4% — — 1.95
Alanyaspor leading at HT 30.2% 32.7% — — 3.05
Samsunspor leading at HT 23.5% 20.5% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor -1: 2 61.4% 62.5% — — 1.60
Alanyaspor -1: X 20.6% 23.5% — — 4.25
Alanyaspor -1: 1 18.1% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor (0:1) 61.4% 61.4% 54.6% 1.12× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 20.6% 24.2% 24.0% 1.01× 4.13
Alanyaspor (0:1) 18.1% 17.8% 21.5% 0.83× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor (0:2) 81.9% 83.0% 78.5% 1.06× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.7% 11.0% 11.6% 0.94× 9.10
Alanyaspor (0:2) 6.4% 7.7% 10.0% 0.76× 13.07
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor (0:3) 93.6% 92.7% 90.0% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.6% 2.4% 6.6% 0.36× 41.94
Alanyaspor (0:3) 1.8% 2.4% 3.5% 0.67× 42.06
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor (0:4) 98.2% 98.1% 96.5% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.4% 1.2% 2.5% 0.49× 81.75
Alanyaspor (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.04× 81.85
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (1:0) 68.5% 70.2% 71.1% 0.99× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.0% 17.1% 15.9% 1.08× 5.85
Samsunspor (1:0) 13.4% 12.7% 13.1% 0.97× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (2:0) 86.6% 88.5% 86.9% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.2% 6.4% 7.8% 0.82× 15.64
Samsunspor (2:0) 4.2% 2.3% 5.4% 0.42× 43.66
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.5% 48.6% — — 2.06
Halves equal 28.6% 26.3% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.0% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede 68.6% 66.7% 69.8% 0.96× 1.50
Alanyaspor clean sheet 31.4% 33.3% 30.2% 1.10× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor clean sheet in 1st half 63.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Alanyaspor to concede in 1st half 37.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede in 2nd half 50.1% 52.5% — — 1.91
Alanyaspor clean sheet in 2nd half 49.9% 47.5% — — 2.10
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor over 2.5 corners 83.8% 81.0% — — 1.24
Alanyaspor under 6.5 corners 71.1% 71.9% — — 1.39
Alanyaspor over 3.5 corners 70.4% 71.9% — — 1.39
Alanyaspor under 5.5 corners 58.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Alanyaspor over 4.5 corners 55.5% 57.5% — — 1.74
Alanyaspor under 4.5 corners 44.5% 42.5% — — 2.35
Alanyaspor over 5.5 corners 41.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Alanyaspor under 3.5 corners 29.6% 28.1% — — 3.56
Alanyaspor over 6.5 corners 28.9% 28.1% — — 3.56
Alanyaspor under 2.5 corners 16.2% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 3.5 goals 95.6% 96.4% 92.6% 1.04× 1.04
Alanyaspor under 2.5 goals 85.6% 87.3% 77.8% 1.12× 1.15
Alanyaspor over 0.5 goals 72.9% 74.2% 77.8% 0.95× 1.35
Alanyaspor under 1.5 goals 62.4% 63.6% 54.1% 1.18× 1.57
Alanyaspor over 1.5 goals 37.6% 36.4% 46.0% 0.79× 2.75
Alanyaspor under 0.5 goals 27.1% 25.8% 22.2% 1.16× 3.88
Alanyaspor over 2.5 goals 14.4% 12.7% 22.2% 0.57× 7.85
Alanyaspor over 3.5 goals 4.4% 3.6% 7.4% 0.49× 27.49
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 1.5 in 1st half 89.0% 90.2% — — 1.11
Alanyaspor under 0.5 in 1st half 57.0% 56.2% — — 1.78
Alanyaspor over 0.5 in 1st half 43.0% 43.8% — — 2.28
Alanyaspor over 1.5 in 1st half 11.0% 9.8% — — 10.25
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor scores equally in both 39.6% 38.2% — — 2.62
Alanyaspor scores more in 2nd half 35.8% 38.1% — — 2.63
Alanyaspor scores more in 1st half 24.6% 21.1% — — 4.73
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor (home no bet) 51.3% 51.4% 52.7% 0.98× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 48.7% 48.6% 47.3% 1.03× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor even goals 53.7% 50.8% 51.0% 1.00× 1.97
Alanyaspor odd goals 46.3% 49.2% 49.0% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 36.1% 38.4% — — 2.60
HT 1-0 19.9% 18.6% — — 5.37
HT 0-1 16.4% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 9.6% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 2-0 5.7% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 0-2 3.8% 2.4% — — 42.15
Any other HT score 3.1% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT 2-1 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.26
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 22.5% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 19.4% 16.8% — — 5.96
Samsunspor at HT / Samsunspor at FT 16.6% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 14.2% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Samsunspor at FT 12.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Alanyaspor at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.1% — — 16.53
Samsunspor at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.84
Alanyaspor at HT / Samsunspor at FT 2.1% 3.5% — — 28.94
Samsunspor at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 2.0% 3.5% — — 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score last 47.8% 46.4% — — 2.16
Samsunspor to score last 42.3% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 9.9% 7.7% — — 13.07
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.1% 92.5% — — 1.08
Alanyaspor to lead by 1 at any time 54.5% 50.7% — — 1.97
Samsunspor to lead by 1 at any time 48.2% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 41.8% 39.2% — — 2.55
Alanyaspor to lead by 2 at any time 23.5% 19.5% — — 5.12
Samsunspor to lead by 2 at any time 18.4% 14.8% — — 6.74
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 13.5% 10.6% — — 9.41
Alanyaspor to lead by 3 at any time 7.9% 6.7% — — 15.02
Samsunspor to lead by 3 at any time 5.5% 6.6% — — 15.13
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor most corners 62.6% 60.6% — — 1.65
Samsunspor most corners 26.6% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 10.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.1% 87.4% 85.4% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.7% 78.7% 75.4% 1.04× 1.27
2-6 goals 70.6% 72.3% 73.9% 0.98× 1.38
2-5 goals 67.9% 68.8% 69.8% 0.99× 1.45
1-3 goals 66.6% 68.8% 61.3% 1.12× 1.45
2-4 goals 61.5% 63.3% 59.8% 1.06× 1.58
2-3 goals 48.4% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
1-2 goals 45.4% 48.4% 38.3% 1.27× 2.06
3-6 goals 43.4% 43.6% 51.4% 0.85× 2.29
3-5 goals 40.7% 43.6% 47.3% 0.92× 2.29
3-4 goals 34.3% 35.2% 37.3% 0.94× 2.84
4-6 goals 22.2% 24.5% 28.4% 0.86× 4.09
4-5 goals 19.5% 18.8% 24.3% 0.78× 5.31
5-6 goals 9.1% 8.9% 14.3% 0.62× 11.25
7+ goals 1.3% 2.6% 2.7% 0.96× 39.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor never behind 42.0% 48.7% — — 2.05
Samsunspor never behind 35.6% 44.1% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.9% 50.9% 50.8% 1.00× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.1% 49.1% 49.2% 1.00× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.9% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 43.1% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.8% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.2% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.0% 95.4% 93.2% 1.02× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 89.6% 87.6% 83.2% 1.05× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 76.5% 77.3% 69.1% 1.12× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 71.9% 72.5% 76.4% 0.95× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 55.3% 58.6% 46.1% 1.27× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 44.7% 41.4% 53.9% 0.77× 2.42
Under 1.5 goals 28.1% 27.5% 23.6% 1.17× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 23.5% 22.7% 30.9% 0.73× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 10.4% 12.4% 16.8% 0.74× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 8.0% 0.97× 12.92
Over 5.5 goals 4.0% 4.6% 6.8% 0.68× 21.81
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.6% 97.2% 97.2% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.8% 97.2% 92.5% 1.05× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 88.0% 86.7% 80.4% 1.08× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 70.2% 72.3% 59.8% 1.21× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 61.4% 61.9% 69.6% 0.89× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 38.6% 38.1% 30.4% 1.25× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 29.8% 27.7% 40.2% 0.69× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 12.0% 13.3% 19.6% 0.68× 7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.2% 2.8% 7.5% 0.37× 35.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.4% 2.8% 2.8% 1.01× 35.64
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.5% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 72.4% 71.4% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 63.9% 63.5% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 36.1% 36.5% — — 2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half 27.6% 28.6% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.5% 7.3% — — 13.77
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 82.4% 83.0% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.8% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 57.4% 55.1% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 42.6% 44.9% — — 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.2% 20.5% — — 4.87
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 17.6% 17.0% — — 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor not to score in both halves 81.5% 84.3% — — 1.19
Alanyaspor not to score in both halves 77.4% 78.4% — — 1.28
Alanyaspor to score in both halves 22.6% 21.6% — — 4.63
Samsunspor to score in both halves 18.5% 15.7% — — 6.36
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 51.4% 53.8% 55.5% 0.97× 1.86
Only Alanyaspor scores 21.6% 22.2% 22.4% 0.99× 4.50
Only Samsunspor scores 17.2% 16.0% 14.4% 1.11× 6.24
Neither team scores 9.9% 7.2% 8.0% 0.90× 13.98
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.2% 24.9% 22.7% 1.10× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 21.2% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 18.2% 17.5% 15.8% 1.11× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 13.1% 12.1% 14.3% 0.85× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 9.9% 7.6% 8.0% 0.96× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 6.4% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.0% 4.5% 6.8% 0.66× 22.34
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 36.1% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 19.1% 15.8% — — 6.34
3+ goals in 1st half 8.5% 7.3% — — 13.77
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 42.6% 44.7% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 33.2% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 24.2% 23.0% — — 4.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor not to win both halves 93.0% 94.2% — — 1.06
Alanyaspor not to win both halves 90.1% 94.1% — — 1.06
Alanyaspor to win both halves 9.9% 5.9% — — 16.94
Samsunspor to win both halves 7.0% 5.8% — — 17.15
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor to win neither half 54.3% 54.4% — — 1.84
Alanyaspor to win either half 52.4% 54.3% — — 1.84
Alanyaspor to win neither half 47.6% 45.7% — — 2.19
Samsunspor to win either half 45.7% 45.6% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Samsunspor not to win to nil 82.8% 83.1% 85.6% 0.97× 1.20
Alanyaspor not to win to nil 78.4% 78.1% 77.6% 1.01× 1.28
Alanyaspor to win to nil 21.6% 21.9% 22.4% 0.98× 4.58
Samsunspor to win to nil 17.2% 16.9% 14.4% 1.17× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 29.9% 27.9% 25.9% 1.08× 3.59
Alanyaspor by 1 20.6% 24.1% 24.0% 1.00× 4.15
Samsunspor by 1 18.0% 17.0% 15.9% 1.07× 5.87
Alanyaspor by 2 11.7% 11.8% 11.6% 1.01× 8.51
Samsunspor by 2 9.2% 7.2% 7.8% 0.92× 13.90
Alanyaspor by 3+ 6.4% 7.2% 10.0% 0.72× 13.91
Samsunspor by 3+ 4.2% 2.7% 5.4% 0.50× 36.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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