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Alaves v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 December 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–1
0.80 – 0.84 xG
Shots
6 – 9
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
3 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.18 – +0.16
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.20.50.70.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Unai Gómez 9' — goalJoan Jordán 66' — goal
Alaves 0.82 xGAthletic Club 0.84 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Kike García 2' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Adama Boiro 5' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Set Piece)Nico Williams 7' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Unai Gómez 9' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Moussa Diarra 15' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mikel Jauregizar 23' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 37' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Carlos Martín 46' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)De Marcos 55' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Iñaki Williams 56' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gorka Guruzeta 60' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Oihan Sancet 61' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nahuel Tenaglia 62' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Joan Jordán 66' — Goal (0.63 xG, Open Play)Jon Guridi 66' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Alaves attacking right Athletic Club attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Alaves Kike García 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joan Jordán
5' Athletic Club Adama Boiro 0.13 Set Piece Missed Shot Alex Berenguer
7' Athletic Club Nico Williams 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot De Marcos
9' Athletic Club Unai Gómez 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Goal
15' Alaves Moussa Diarra 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Carlos Martín
23' Athletic Club Mikel Jauregizar 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
37' Athletic Club Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
46' Alaves Carlos Martín 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Kike García
55' Athletic Club De Marcos 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Iñaki Williams
56' Athletic Club Iñaki Williams 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta
60' Athletic Club Gorka Guruzeta 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot De Marcos
61' Athletic Club Oihan Sancet 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta
62' Alaves Nahuel Tenaglia 0.01 Set Piece Missed Shot Joan Jordán
66' Alaves Joan Jordán 0.63 Open Play Right Foot Goal
66' Alaves Jon Guridi 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Carlos Vicente

Players

Athletic Club

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mikel Jauregizar DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.17
Iñaki Williams AMR 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.04 0.10
De Marcos DR 90 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.15 0.22
Dani Vivian DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aitor Paredes DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Unai Simón GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nico Williams AML 79 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.12
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC 79 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.07 0.26
Unai Gómez AMC 61 1 0 1 0 0.36 0.00 0.36
Alex Berenguer FW 61 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.04
Adama Boiro DL 47 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.00
Yuri Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Gorka Guruzeta Sub 29 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Oihan Sancet Sub 29 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.10
Mikel Vesga Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Álvaro Djaló Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Alaves

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Joan Jordán DMC 90 1 0 1 2 0.63 0.08 0.79
Kike García FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.05 0.13
Jon Guridi AMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.08
Moussa Diarra DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.05
Nahuel Tenaglia DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Santiago Mouriño DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Antonio Sivera GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Vicente AMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Abdelkabir Abqar DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Antonio Blanco DMC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Carlos Martín AML 62 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.02 0.08
Stoichkov Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ander Guevara Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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