Alaves v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 13 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 8
On target
3 – 0
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.42 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+0.04 – -0.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
18.9%
Draw
20.4%
Barcelona win
60.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.10–2.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–2.13 | 1-2 9% | 69% | 68% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 0.96 xGBarcelona 0.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Alaves |
Ibrahim Diabate | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Blanco |
| 6' |
 Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 7' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 9' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Casadó |
| 10' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roony Bardghji |
| 11' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Guridi |
| 17' |
Barcelona |
Marc Casadó | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 20' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 29' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Casadó |
| 34' |
Alaves |
Ángel Pérez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Blanco |
| 41' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Blanco |
| 45' |
Alaves |
Ibrahim Diabate | 0.42 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Antonio Blanco |
| 50' |
Alaves |
Ibrahim Diabate | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 59' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Balde |
| 63' |
Barcelona |
Marc Bernal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 66' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ángel Pérez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.63 | 0.38 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Jon Guridi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ville Koski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Parada DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Diabate FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Denis Suárez MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Pablo Ibáñez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aitor Mañas Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Benavídez Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Dani Olmo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| Wojciech Szczesny GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Álvaro Cortés DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Marc Bernal DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Álex Balde DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Marc Casadó DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Roony Bardghji AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pedri Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Xavi Espart Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ferrán Torres Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Cancelo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomás Marqués Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |