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Alaves v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 27 January 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–1
0.89 – 0.16 xG
Shots
3 – 5
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
2 – 1
xG per shot
0.30 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.87 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.11 – +0.84
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.20.50.71.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Kike García 5' — goalPablo Durán 65' — goal
Alaves 0.89 xGCelta Vigo 0.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Kike García 5' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Sergio Carreira 47' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Williot Swedberg 47' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Abdelkabir Abqar 48' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Sergio Carreira 54' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Marcos Alonso 62' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Pablo Durán 65' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Carlos Vicente 75' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Alaves attacking right Celta Vigo attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Alaves Kike García 0.74 Right Foot Goal
47' Celta Vigo Sergio Carreira 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
47' Celta Vigo Williot Swedberg 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pablo Durán
48' Alaves Abdelkabir Abqar 0.13 From Corner Missed Shot Carlos Vicente
54' Celta Vigo Sergio Carreira 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
62' Celta Vigo Marcos Alonso 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Fran Beltrán
65' Celta Vigo Pablo Durán 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mihailo Ristic
75' Alaves Carlos Vicente 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Celta Vigo

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Sergio Carreira DMR 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.06
Marcos Alonso DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Fran Beltrán MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Ilaix Moriba MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Carl Starfelt DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vicente Guaita GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pablo Durán FWL 87 1 0 1 1 0.03 0.04 0.06
Mihailo Ristic DML 77 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Borja Iglesias FW 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Franco Cervi FWR 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yoel Lago DC 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Williot Swedberg Sub 42 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Javier Rodríguez Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Tasos Douvikas Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hugo Álvarez Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fernando López Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Alaves

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kike García FW 90 1 0 1 0 0.74 0.00 0.02
Abdelkabir Abqar DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.00
Carlos Vicente AMR 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.13 0.02
Jesús Owono GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nahuel Tenaglia DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ander Guevara DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Moussa Diarra DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Manuel Sánchez DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jon Guridi AMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Benavídez DMC 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tomás Conechny AML 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Martín Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Asier Villalibre Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Martínez Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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