Alaves v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Alaves

16:00 UTC

Elche

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 1,397h before kick-off

Alaves win

55.7%

model 57.0%

Draw

22.2%

model 22.8%

Elche win

22.1%

model 20.1%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 11.1%
1-1 10.9%
2-0 10.1%
2-1 9.9%
3-0 6.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.1%	Under 2.5	46.9%
BTTS yes	52.4%	BTTS no	47.6%
Alaves 1+	83.8%	Alaves 2+	54.3%
Elche 1+	62.5%	Elche 2+	25.7%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Alaves (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 46%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

moderate signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Elche not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 81%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Alaves have created 1.46 xG a match over their last five while Elche have allowed 1.91.
At home Alaves average 1.43 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Elche were missing 0.86 expected goal involvements a match against 0.52.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Alaves have an estimated 55.7% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 22.1% for Elche. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.82 for Alaves and 0.98 for Elche.

Why Alaves

Alaves have created 1.46 xG a match over their last five while Elche have allowed 1.91. At home Alaves average 1.43 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Elche were missing 0.86 expected goal involvements a match against 0.52.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Elche can win

Elche have created 1.13 xG a match over their last five while Alaves have allowed 1.20. Away from home Elche average 0.99 xG a match.

Key players

Alaves's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Martínez (0.48), Lucas Boyé (0.44), Ángel Pérez (0.28). Elche's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Alvaro Rodríguez (0.42), Fernando Niño (0.41), André Silva (0.36).

Availability

1 of Alaves's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Elche's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Elche's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Alaves: 40% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.45 xG a match from set pieces. Elche: 46% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Alaves are the model's most likely outcome at 55.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.1%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Alaves have scored 14 from 14.6 expected and conceded 12 from 12.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWDWWLLDLL last 10 scored 14 from 14.6 xG conceded 12 from 12.0 xG

Elche have scored 12 from 11.3 expected and conceded 18 from 19.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DDLLLDLWDD last 10 scored 12 from 11.3 xG conceded 18 from 19.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	572320	1.82–0.98	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	592219	1.91–0.98	1-0 11%	55%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to win	62.1%	58.2%	46.4%	1.26×	1.72
Draw	20.7%	24.4%	25.4%	0.96×	4.09
Elche to win	17.3%	19.4%	28.4%	0.68×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves & not both score	32.7%	29.6%	24.8%	1.19×	3.38
Alaves & both teams score	29.3%	25.2%	21.6%	1.16×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	15.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Elche & both teams score	9.2%	8.3%	14.1%	0.59×	12.00
Elche & not both score	8.1%	8.3%	14.4%	0.58×	12.01
Draw & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	5.3%	0.92×	20.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves & over 1.5	52.1%	48.9%	33.9%	1.44×	2.05
Alaves & over 2.5	42.0%	40.3%	28.0%	1.44×	2.48
Alaves & under 3.5	37.0%	34.9%	32.4%	1.08×	2.87
Alaves & over 3.5	25.1%	26.1%	14.1%	1.85×	3.84
Alaves & under 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	18.5%	1.17×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	15.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.6%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.6%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Elche & over 1.5	12.5%	12.8%	21.4%	0.60×	7.79
Elche & under 3.5	12.6%	12.8%	21.3%	0.60×	7.79
Elche & over 2.5	10.2%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.79
Alaves & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Elche & under 2.5	7.1%	7.9%	11.4%	0.69×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	5.3%	0.91×	20.81
Elche & under 1.5	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.81
Elche & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	7.2%	0.67×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (1UP)	74.4%	75.7%	62.7%	1.21×	1.32
Elche (1UP)	35.5%	33.9%	47.1%	0.72×	2.95

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (2UP)	62.1%	68.4%	48.1%	1.42×	1.46
Elche (2UP)	17.3%	17.2%	30.0%	0.58×	5.80

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to win 2nd half	50.4%	51.2%	39.5%	1.30×	1.95
2nd half drawn	30.1%	34.3%	33.0%	1.04×	2.92
Elche to win 2nd half	19.4%	18.2%	27.6%	0.66×	5.49

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	86.7%	84.2%	1.03×	1.15
Elche under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	52.6%	47.9%	1.10×	1.90
Elche over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	47.4%	52.1%	0.91×	2.11
Elche over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	13.3%	15.8%	0.84×	7.54

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.8%	73.9%	59.1%	1.25×	1.35
Alaves under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	70.6%	79.6%	0.89×	1.42
Alaves over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	29.4%	20.4%	1.44×	3.40
Alaves under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.2%	26.1%	40.9%	0.64×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (+0.5)	82.7%	82.5%	71.6%	1.15×	1.21
Elche (+2.5)	80.7%	82.5%	89.8%	0.92×	1.21
Alaves (-0.5)	62.1%	62.9%	46.4%	1.36×	1.59
Elche (+1.5)	61.8%	62.9%	79.3%	0.79×	1.59
Alaves (-1.5)	38.3%	37.1%	20.7%	1.79×	2.70
Elche (+0.5)	37.9%	37.1%	53.6%	0.69×	2.70
Alaves (-2.5)	19.3%	17.5%	10.2%	1.71×	5.72
Elche (-0.5)	17.3%	17.5%	28.4%	0.62×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede	87.1%	86.3%	80.5%	1.07×	1.16
Elche clean sheet	12.9%	13.7%	19.5%	0.70×	7.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 1st half	55.8%	56.9%	47.8%	1.19×	1.76
Elche clean sheet in 1st half	44.2%	43.1%	52.2%	0.82×	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 2nd half	70.8%	70.7%	59.1%	1.20×	1.42
Elche clean sheet in 2nd half	29.2%	29.3%	40.9%	0.72×	3.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 6.5 corners	83.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Elche over 2.5 corners	73.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Elche under 5.5 corners	73.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Elche under 4.5 corners	59.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Elche over 3.5 corners	56.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Elche under 3.5 corners	43.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Elche over 4.5 corners	40.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Elche over 5.5 corners	26.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Elche under 2.5 corners	26.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Elche over 6.5 corners	16.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 3.5 goals	98.2%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Elche under 2.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	89.4%	1.03×	1.08
Elche under 1.5 goals	74.4%	71.9%	67.9%	1.06×	1.39
Elche over 0.5 goals	62.4%	63.2%	70.0%	0.90×	1.58
Elche under 0.5 goals	37.6%	36.8%	30.0%	1.23×	2.72
Elche over 1.5 goals	25.6%	28.1%	32.1%	0.88×	3.56
Elche over 2.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	10.6%	0.72×	13.05
Elche over 3.5 goals	1.8%	2.5%	2.9%	0.85×	39.94

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 1st half	95.5%	96.0%	92.8%	1.03×	1.04
Elche under 0.5 in 1st half	71.5%	68.6%	63.2%	1.09×	1.46
Elche over 0.5 in 1st half	28.5%	31.4%	36.8%	0.85×	3.19
Elche over 1.5 in 1st half	4.5%	4.0%	7.2%	0.56×	24.75

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche scores equally in both	46.1%	48.1%	41.7%	1.15×	2.08
Elche scores more in 2nd half	37.3%	37.3%	37.6%	0.99×	2.68
Elche scores more in 1st half	16.5%	17.9%	20.8%	0.86×	5.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (away no bet)	75.0%	73.5%	64.6%	1.14×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	25.0%	26.5%	35.4%	0.75×	3.77

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche even goals	57.1%	56.9%	53.3%	1.07×	1.76
Elche odd goals	42.9%	43.1%	46.7%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.1%	82.7%	85.8%	0.96×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.9%	17.3%	14.2%	1.22×	5.78

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.0%	68.6%	62.5%	1.10×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.0%	31.4%	37.5%	0.84×	3.19

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.6%	60.2%	52.5%	1.15×	1.66
Alaves to score 2+ in a row	53.0%	51.0%	34.6%	1.48×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.0%	25.2%	19.2%	1.31×	3.97
Alaves to score 3+ in a row	24.7%	19.7%	13.2%	1.49×	5.08
Elche to score 2+ in a row	17.0%	16.3%	23.8%	0.68×	6.15
Elche to score 3+ in a row	3.5%	2.6%	6.5%	0.40×	38.57

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves corners (+3.5)	88.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Alaves corners (+2.5)	82.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Elche corners (+3.5)	78.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Alaves corners (+1.5)	73.7%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Elche corners (+2.5)	69.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Elche corners (+1.5)	59.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Alaves corners (-1.5)	40.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Alaves corners (-2.5)	30.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Elche corners (-1.5)	26.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Alaves corners (-3.5)	21.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Elche corners (-2.5)	17.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Elche corners (-3.5)	11.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	24.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.7%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	24.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.3%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	10.2%	11.5%	6.0%	1.91×	8.73
1-0	9.9%	7.4%	12.6%	0.59×	13.50
1-1	9.7%	7.4%	15.2%	0.49×	13.50
2-1	10.0%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.50
3-0	6.9%	7.4%	4.5%	1.66×	13.51
3-1	6.8%	7.4%	3.5%	2.10×	13.51
Any other score	6.0%	7.4%	3.4%	2.17×	13.51
0-0	4.9%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.29
0-1	4.7%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.29
1-2	4.8%	1.7%	8.1%	0.21×	58.29
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.29
0-2	2.3%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.31
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.08×	58.32
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.64×	58.32
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.92×	58.32
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.86×	58.32
4-0	3.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.30
4-1	3.5%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.30
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.33×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.43×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.58×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (2nd half DNB)	72.2%	71.1%	58.9%	1.21×	1.41
Elche (2nd half DNB)	27.8%	28.9%	41.1%	0.70×	3.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves leading at HT (DNB)	75.9%	74.8%	61.6%	1.21×	1.34
Elche leading at HT (DNB)	24.1%	25.2%	38.4%	0.66×	3.97

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw (1X)	82.7%	80.6%	71.6%	1.13×	1.24
Alaves or Elche (12)	79.3%	75.6%	74.6%	1.01×	1.32
Elche or draw (X2)	37.9%	41.8%	53.6%	0.78×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw at HT	85.7%	87.9%	78.2%	1.12×	1.14
Alaves or Elche at HT	59.1%	57.2%	56.7%	1.01×	1.75
Elche or draw at HT	55.1%	57.1%	65.0%	0.88×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw (1UP)	82.7%	88.6%	77.9%	1.14×	1.13
Elche or draw (1UP)	37.9%	41.2%	60.3%	0.68×	2.43

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw in 2nd half	80.6%	81.8%	72.4%	1.13×	1.22
Alaves or Elche in 2nd half	69.9%	65.7%	67.0%	0.98×	1.52
Elche or draw in 2nd half	49.6%	48.8%	60.5%	0.81×	2.05

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.7%	58.5%	62.1%	0.94×	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.3%	41.5%	37.9%	1.10×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (DNB)	78.3%	74.8%	62.0%	1.20×	1.34
Elche (DNB)	21.7%	25.2%	38.0%	0.67×	3.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score first	64.4%	64.7%	55.2%	1.17×	1.55
Elche to score first	30.8%	27.3%	39.6%	0.69×	3.66
No goal scored	4.9%	4.3%	5.3%	0.81×	23.16

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.4%	51.3%	55.8%	0.92×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.6%	48.7%	44.2%	1.10×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.6%	41.6%	40.7%	1.02×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	32.0%	34.5%	34.9%	0.99×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	13.6%	12.4%	9.4%	1.31×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.7%	8.3%	15.2%	0.55×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.5%	82.6%	85.8%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.5%	17.4%	14.2%	1.22×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.4%	67.3%	70.8%	0.95×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.6%	32.7%	29.2%	1.12×	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.9%	59.9%	59.7%	1.00×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	28.2%	27.4%	23.7%	1.16×	3.65
Both score 1st half only	10.6%	10.6%	11.2%	0.95×	9.39
Both score in both halves	5.3%	6.8%	5.7%	1.19×	14.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.1%	83.3%	83.3%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.9%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.9%	57.4%	55.1%	1.04×	1.74
A half without a goal	42.1%	42.6%	44.9%	0.95×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.6%	42.1%	49.2%	0.86×	2.37
4-6 goals	32.4%	30.7%	23.8%	1.29×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.5%	20.3%	24.7%	0.82×	4.94
7+ goals	3.5%	1.8%	2.6%	0.71×	54.15

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to score exactly 0	37.6%	35.9%	30.0%	1.20×	2.78
Elche to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	38.0%	0.95×	2.78
Elche to score exactly 2	18.0%	19.6%	21.6%	0.90×	5.11
Elche to score 3+	7.6%	8.5%	10.6%	0.81×	11.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score 3+	33.6%	32.6%	19.8%	1.65×	3.07
Alaves to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Alaves to score exactly 1	26.4%	26.5%	38.2%	0.69×	3.77
Alaves to score exactly 0	12.9%	14.3%	19.5%	0.73×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves leading at HT	44.9%	42.9%	35.0%	1.23×	2.33
Draw at HT	40.9%	42.8%	43.3%	0.99×	2.34
Elche leading at HT	14.3%	12.1%	21.8%	0.56×	8.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves -1: 1	38.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Alaves -1: 2	37.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Alaves -1: X	23.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (0:1)	38.3%	37.3%	20.7%	1.80×	2.68
Elche (0:1)	37.9%	37.3%	53.6%	0.70×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.8%	24.2%	25.8%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:2)	61.8%	67.0%	79.3%	0.85×	1.49
Alaves (0:2)	19.3%	15.3%	10.2%	1.50×	6.53
Draw (0:2)	18.9%	15.3%	10.6%	1.45×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:3)	80.7%	85.3%	89.8%	0.95×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.2%	9.9%	7.2%	1.38×	10.07
Alaves (0:3)	8.1%	5.8%	3.2%	1.83×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:4)	91.9%	94.5%	96.8%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.2%	4.6%	2.4%	1.95×	21.81
Alaves (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	81.78

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (1:0)	82.7%	81.4%	71.6%	1.14×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.4%	12.7%	17.5%	0.72×	7.88
Elche (1:0)	5.9%	6.9%	10.9%	0.63×	14.52

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (2:0)	94.1%	94.0%	89.1%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.3%	2.3%	7.1%	0.33×	43.56
Elche (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	4.0%	0.57×	43.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	54.2%	50.3%	51.3%	0.98×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	23.2%	24.4%	25.8%	0.94×	4.11
Halves equal	22.5%	24.3%	23.0%	1.06×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to concede	62.4%	63.7%	70.0%	0.91×	1.57
Alaves clean sheet	37.6%	36.3%	30.0%	1.21×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves clean sheet in 1st half	71.5%	67.4%	63.2%	1.07×	1.48
Alaves to concede in 1st half	28.5%	32.6%	36.8%	0.89×	3.07

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves clean sheet in 2nd half	52.6%	52.7%	47.9%	1.10×	1.90
Alaves to concede in 2nd half	47.4%	47.3%	52.1%	0.91×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves over 2.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Alaves under 6.5 corners	74.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Alaves over 3.5 corners	67.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Alaves under 5.5 corners	62.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Alaves over 4.5 corners	51.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Alaves under 4.5 corners	48.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Alaves over 5.5 corners	37.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Alaves under 3.5 corners	32.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Alaves over 6.5 corners	25.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Alaves under 2.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves over 0.5 goals	87.1%	87.3%	80.5%	1.08×	1.15
Alaves under 3.5 goals	84.9%	82.2%	92.4%	0.89×	1.22
Alaves under 2.5 goals	66.4%	68.0%	80.2%	0.85×	1.47
Alaves over 1.5 goals	60.7%	63.6%	42.4%	1.50×	1.57
Alaves under 1.5 goals	39.3%	36.4%	57.6%	0.63×	2.75
Alaves over 2.5 goals	33.6%	32.0%	19.8%	1.62×	3.12
Alaves over 3.5 goals	15.1%	17.8%	7.6%	2.32×	5.63
Alaves under 0.5 goals	12.9%	12.7%	19.5%	0.65×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves under 1.5 in 1st half	80.3%	83.6%	85.8%	0.97×	1.20
Alaves over 0.5 in 1st half	55.8%	56.6%	47.8%	1.19×	1.77
Alaves under 0.5 in 1st half	44.2%	43.4%	52.2%	0.83×	2.31
Alaves over 1.5 in 1st half	19.7%	16.4%	14.2%	1.16×	6.09

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves scores more in 2nd half	45.9%	47.3%	40.3%	1.17×	2.12
Alaves scores equally in both	29.5%	27.9%	32.3%	0.86×	3.59
Alaves scores more in 1st half	24.6%	21.3%	27.5%	0.77×	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.5%	51.4%	47.3%	1.09×	1.95
Elche (home no bet)	45.5%	48.6%	52.7%	0.92×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves even goals	50.8%	50.7%	47.5%	1.07×	1.97
Alaves odd goals	49.2%	49.3%	52.5%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.6%	33.3%	32.2%	1.04×	3.00
HT 1-0	25.8%	27.9%	22.1%	1.27×	3.58
HT 0-1	10.6%	11.0%	16.0%	0.69×	9.09
HT 2-0	10.6%	11.0%	6.6%	1.67×	9.09
HT 1-1	8.6%	6.9%	10.1%	0.68×	14.47
Any other HT score	5.5%	6.9%	4.5%	1.54×	14.52
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.4%	3.1%	0.78×	42.05
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.4%	3.5%	0.67×	42.16
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.4%	1.7%	1.44×	42.18
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	1.2%	2.01×	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves at HT / Alaves at FT	38.5%	41.8%	26.3%	1.59×	2.39
Draw at HT / Alaves at FT	20.6%	21.7%	17.8%	1.22×	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.3%	12.6%	14.2%	0.89×	7.91
Draw at HT / Elche at FT	7.9%	6.0%	11.6%	0.52×	16.60
Elche at HT / Elche at FT	7.7%	6.0%	13.2%	0.46×	16.61
Alaves at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	5.2%	0.67×	28.59
Elche at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	6.3%	0.56×	28.63
Elche at HT / Alaves at FT	2.9%	3.5%	2.6%	1.35×	28.66
Alaves at HT / Elche at FT	1.6%	3.5%	3.8%	0.92×	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score last	64.4%	62.4%	54.8%	1.14×	1.60
Elche to score last	30.8%	32.5%	40.0%	0.81×	3.08
No goal scored	4.9%	4.3%	5.3%	0.81×	23.16

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.1%	95.6%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Alaves to lead by 1 at any time	74.4%	74.4%	62.7%	1.19×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.1%	54.8%	42.0%	1.31×	1.82
Alaves to lead by 2 at any time	45.1%	44.5%	26.5%	1.68×	2.25
Elche to lead by 1 at any time	35.5%	34.6%	47.1%	0.74×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.8%	19.7%	17.2%	1.14×	5.08
Alaves to lead by 3 at any time	22.4%	19.7%	12.5%	1.57×	5.09
Elche to lead by 2 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	15.8%	0.66×	9.60
Elche to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	4.8%	0.33×	62.30

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves most corners	52.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Elche most corners	36.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	87.4%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.0%	78.7%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.3%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.8%	72.4%	69.2%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.3%	60.9%	1.04×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.3%	59.1%	68.6%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.8%	53.2%	47.5%	1.12×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.6%	48.5%	43.9%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.6%	43.6%	49.2%	0.89×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.4%	39.2%	35.6%	1.10×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.9%	39.2%	44.8%	0.87×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.4%	35.2%	23.8%	1.48×	2.84
4-5 goals	27.2%	30.2%	20.1%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.4%	18.8%	12.0%	1.57×	5.31
7+ goals	3.5%	2.6%	2.6%	0.99×	39.07

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves never behind	59.6%	62.8%	52.9%	1.19×	1.59
Elche never behind	20.8%	24.5%	37.3%	0.66×	4.09

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	53.6%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	46.4%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.0%	51.7%	54.4%	0.95×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	48.3%	45.6%	1.06×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	51.9%	49.4%	1.05×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.1%	50.6%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.4%	92.3%	93.8%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.1%	82.3%	85.5%	0.96×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.5%	82.3%	75.3%	1.09×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	64.2%	61.7%	73.8%	0.84×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.3%	58.6%	50.0%	1.17×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.8%	41.4%	50.0%	0.83×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.8%	38.3%	26.2%	1.46×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	19.5%	17.7%	24.7%	0.72×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	18.9%	17.7%	14.5%	1.22×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	6.2%	1.24×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	5.3%	0.86×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.4%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.4%	92.4%	93.2%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.3%	75.9%	83.6%	0.91×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.9%	72.4%	66.9%	1.08×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.8%	51.9%	65.6%	0.79×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.2%	48.1%	34.4%	1.40×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.1%	27.6%	33.1%	0.83×	3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.7%	24.1%	16.4%	1.47×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.6%	7.6%	6.8%	1.12×	13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.6%	2.8%	2.7%	1.05×	35.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.0%	89.2%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.4%	68.5%	67.8%	1.01×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.0%	68.5%	70.0%	0.98×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.0%	31.5%	30.0%	1.05×	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.6%	31.5%	32.2%	0.98×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.0%	10.8%	10.0%	1.07×	9.29

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.6%	83.2%	82.0%	1.02×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.1%	77.3%	79.0%	0.98×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.8%	46.7%	1.17×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.2%	53.3%	0.85×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.9%	22.7%	21.0%	1.08×	4.41
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.4%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to score in both halves	86.5%	85.3%	81.0%	1.05×	1.17
Alaves not to score in both halves	60.5%	63.5%	73.6%	0.86×	1.58
Alaves to score in both halves	39.5%	36.5%	26.4%	1.38×	2.74
Elche to score in both halves	13.5%	14.7%	19.0%	0.77×	6.81

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.4%	53.9%	55.8%	0.97×	1.86
Only Alaves scores	32.7%	33.3%	24.8%	1.34×	3.00
Only Elche scores	8.1%	7.1%	14.4%	0.50×	14.03
Neither team scores	4.9%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.64

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.9%	0.95×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	22.2%	22.6%	25.4%	0.89×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.0%	17.5%	11.9%	1.47×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.7%	12.1%	19.5%	0.62×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	10.3%	12.1%	8.4%	1.45×	8.25
6 or more goals	8.6%	7.6%	6.2%	1.22×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.9%	4.5%	5.3%	0.84×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.4%	38.0%	0.98×	2.67
No goals in 1st half	31.6%	35.8%	32.2%	1.11×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.0%	21.5%	20.0%	1.07×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.0%	10.7%	10.0%	1.07×	9.36

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.9%	54.0%	46.7%	1.16×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.8%	29.3%	35.4%	0.83×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	15.4%	16.4%	18.0%	0.91×	6.11

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	94.7%	1.03×	1.03
Alaves not to win both halves	77.4%	75.5%	88.0%	0.86×	1.33
Alaves to win both halves	22.6%	24.5%	12.0%	2.04×	4.07
Elche to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	5.3%	0.53×	35.63

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to win either half	72.7%	73.0%	62.5%	1.17×	1.37
Elche to win neither half	69.1%	67.9%	55.9%	1.21×	1.47
Elche to win either half	30.9%	32.1%	44.1%	0.73×	3.11
Alaves to win neither half	27.3%	27.0%	37.5%	0.72×	3.71

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to win to nil	91.9%	92.1%	85.6%	1.08×	1.09
Alaves not to win to nil	67.3%	69.7%	75.2%	0.93×	1.44
Alaves to win to nil	32.7%	30.4%	24.8%	1.22×	3.30
Elche to win to nil	8.1%	7.9%	14.4%	0.55×	12.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves by 1	23.8%	24.1%	25.8%	0.94×	4.15
Draw	20.7%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Alaves by 3+	19.3%	17.1%	10.2%	1.67×	5.86
Alaves by 2	18.9%	17.1%	10.6%	1.61×	5.86
Elche by 1	11.4%	11.8%	17.5%	0.67×	8.51
Elche by 2	4.3%	2.7%	7.1%	0.39×	36.77
Elche by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	4.0%	0.68×	36.86