Alaves v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 9
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.11 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-1.55 – +0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
47.3%
Draw
26.8%
Espanyol win
26.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 1.55 xGEspanyol 0.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Alaves |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joan Jordán |
| 19' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Puado |
| 24' |
Espanyol |
Omar El Hilali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Puado |
| 24' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joan Jordán |
| 31' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kike García |
| 39' |
Alaves |
Kike García | 0.34 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joan Jordán |
| 43' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 45' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 52' |
Espanyol |
Alex Kral | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 53' |
Alaves |
Joan Jordán | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Moussa Diarra |
| 74' |
Alaves |
Asier Villalibre | 0.35 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 75' |
Alaves |
Abdelkabir Abqar | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joan Jordán |
| 79' |
Espanyol |
Alex Kral | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Fernández |
| 81' |
Espanyol |
Antoniu Roca | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 85' |
Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.15 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Tejero |
| 92' |
Alaves |
Joan Jordán | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 96' |
Alaves |
Joan Jordán | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kike García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Joan Jordán MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.49 | 0.11 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.61 | 0.24 |
| Santiago Mouriño DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moussa Diarra DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Antonio Martínez FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Carlos Vicente MR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pau Cabanes De La Torre Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Asier Villalibre Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Sánchez Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Guridi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Kral AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marash Kumbulla DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Jofre Carreras AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Javi Puado AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Fernando Calero Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tejero Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |