Alaves v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 23 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 10
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 1.20
Goals − xG
-0.14 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
43.0%
Draw
30.4%
Girona win
26.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves have scored 14 from 15.5 expected and conceded 11 from 9.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLDWWLWDW last 10
scored 14
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.6 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.78–1.09 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 2.14 xGGirona 2.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 6' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Alaves |
Ángel Pérez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 13' |
 Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Boyé |
| 29' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 30' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 30' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.96 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Axel Witsel |
| 33' |
Girona |
Iván Martín | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Rincón |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Victor Parada |
| 48' |
Alaves |
Youssef Lekhedim | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 56' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 57' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 63' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 68' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitor Reis |
| 68' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 72' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.74 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 76' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Blanco |
| 78' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 78' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Claudio Echeverri |
| 79' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 88' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Goal | Victor Parada |
| 97' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Victor Parada |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Witsel MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.96 | 0.78 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Arnau Martinez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Rincón DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.83 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Viktor Tsygankov MR | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.82 | 0.16 | 0.76 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra ML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.83 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Martín MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Thomas Lemar MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Claudio Echeverri Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Fran Beltrán Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.74 | 0.89 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Francés Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Boyé FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.98 | 0.45 | 1.43 |
| Antonio Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 0.82 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Youssef Lekhedim DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.70 | 0.93 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.57 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Victor Parada DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1.11 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Ángel Pérez MR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Calebe Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Aitor Mañas Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |