Alaves v Malaga — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Alaves

16:00 UTC

Malaga

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 1,136h before kick-off

Alaves win

58.7%

model 59.1%

Draw

22.1%

model 23.2%

Malaga win

19.2%

model 17.8%

592219

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (315 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.9%
2-0 11.4%
1-1 11.0%
2-1 9.7%
0-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.5%	Under 2.5	51.5%
BTTS yes	47.4%	BTTS no	52.6%
Alaves 1+	82.9%	Alaves 2+	52.7%
Malaga 1+	57.2%	Malaga 2+	20.9%

Expected goals 1.77 – 0.85. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 45%

52.9% fair odds 1.89

moderate signal · 1390 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Alaves or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 78%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Alaves average 1.50 xG a match.

Risk factors

Alaves have scored 2.20 a match from 1.55 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Alaves have an estimated 58.7% win probability, against 22.1% for the draw and 19.2% for Malaga. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.77 for Alaves and 0.85 for Malaga.

Why Alaves

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Alaves average 1.50 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Malaga can win

Malaga carry the stronger rating, 1595 Elo against 1545. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Alaves were missing 0.85 expected goal involvements a match against 0.18.

Key players

Alaves's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Martínez (0.51), Lucas Boyé (0.44), Ángel Pérez (0.29). Malaga's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Chupe (0.50), David Larrubia (0.28), Dani Lorenzo (0.17).

Availability

1 of Alaves's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Alaves: 45% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Malaga: 53% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Alaves are the model's most likely outcome at 58.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.9%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WLDWWLWDWW last 10 scored 18 from 15.5 xG conceded 11 from 9.8 xG

Malaga are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 4 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDLD last 4 scored 1 from 4.1 xG conceded 7 from 7.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	592318	1.77–0.85	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	572519	1.63–0.81	1-0 14%	44%	45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to win	62.5%	58.0%	46.8%	1.24×	1.73
Draw	22.4%	24.5%	25.2%	0.97×	4.08
Malaga to win	15.1%	19.4%	28.1%	0.69×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves & not both score	39.4%	33.2%	25.3%	1.31×	3.01
Alaves & both teams score	23.1%	21.8%	21.7%	1.01×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	14.7%	13.3%	20.2%	0.66×	7.54
Malaga & not both score	8.7%	8.4%	14.6%	0.58×	11.93
Draw & not both score	7.7%	8.4%	5.1%	1.64×	11.93
Malaga & both teams score	6.4%	8.4%	13.7%	0.61×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves & over 1.5	48.5%	45.1%	34.1%	1.32×	2.22
Alaves & under 3.5	43.7%	40.3%	33.0%	1.22×	2.48
Alaves & over 2.5	35.9%	34.8%	28.0%	1.24×	2.87
Alaves & under 2.5	26.6%	26.0%	18.9%	1.38×	3.84
Alaves & over 3.5	18.8%	18.0%	13.9%	1.29×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	20.1%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.2%	18.0%	20.1%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.7%	12.9%	20.2%	0.64×	7.76
Alaves & under 1.5	14.0%	12.9%	12.8%	1.00×	7.76
Malaga & under 3.5	12.5%	12.9%	21.7%	0.59×	7.76
Malaga & over 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	21.2%	0.37×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	5.1%	1.55×	12.65
Malaga & under 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	11.6%	0.68×	12.65
Malaga & over 2.5	7.1%	7.9%	16.7%	0.47×	12.65
Malaga & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	7.1%	1.11×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	4.2%	4.8%	5.2%	0.92×	20.86
Draw & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	5.2%	0.92×	20.86
Malaga & over 3.5	2.6%	4.8%	6.6%	0.73×	20.87

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (1UP)	72.8%	75.9%	63.2%	1.20×	1.32
Malaga (1UP)	30.3%	32.5%	47.1%	0.69×	3.08

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (2UP)	62.5%	67.7%	48.7%	1.39×	1.48
Malaga (2UP)	15.1%	17.2%	29.7%	0.58×	5.83

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to win 2nd half	48.6%	45.6%	39.5%	1.15×	2.20
2nd half drawn	36.2%	35.9%	33.0%	1.09×	2.78
Malaga to win 2nd half	15.2%	18.8%	27.7%	0.68×	5.31

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (+0.5)	84.9%	82.5%	71.9%	1.15×	1.21
Malaga (+2.5)	82.8%	82.5%	90.0%	0.92×	1.21
Malaga (+1.5)	63.4%	62.9%	79.2%	0.79×	1.59
Alaves (-0.5)	62.5%	62.9%	46.8%	1.34×	1.59
Malaga (+0.5)	37.5%	37.1%	53.2%	0.70×	2.70
Alaves (-1.5)	36.6%	37.1%	20.8%	1.78×	2.70
Alaves (-2.5)	17.2%	17.5%	10.0%	1.76×	5.70
Malaga (-0.5)	15.1%	17.5%	28.1%	0.62×	5.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to concede	83.6%	81.3%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Malaga clean sheet	16.4%	18.7%	19.6%	0.96×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to concede in 1st half	56.7%	58.5%	48.1%	1.22×	1.71
Malaga clean sheet in 1st half	43.3%	41.6%	51.9%	0.80×	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 6.5 corners	82.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Malaga over 2.5 corners	74.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Malaga under 5.5 corners	72.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Malaga under 4.5 corners	58.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Malaga over 3.5 corners	57.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Malaga under 3.5 corners	42.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Malaga over 4.5 corners	41.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Malaga over 5.5 corners	27.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Malaga under 2.5 corners	25.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Malaga over 6.5 corners	17.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 3.5 goals	99.3%	97.5%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Malaga under 2.5 goals	95.9%	97.5%	90.0%	1.08×	1.03
Malaga under 1.5 goals	82.6%	81.4%	68.1%	1.19×	1.23
Malaga over 0.5 goals	52.9%	53.8%	69.7%	0.77×	1.86
Malaga under 0.5 goals	47.1%	46.2%	30.3%	1.53×	2.16
Malaga over 1.5 goals	17.4%	18.6%	31.9%	0.58×	5.36
Malaga over 2.5 goals	4.1%	2.5%	10.0%	0.25×	39.97
Malaga over 3.5 goals	0.7%	2.5%	2.7%	0.91×	40.14

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 1.5 in 1st half	95.3%	95.6%	93.3%	1.03×	1.05
Malaga under 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	68.3%	63.4%	1.08×	1.46
Malaga over 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	31.7%	36.6%	0.87×	3.16
Malaga over 1.5 in 1st half	4.7%	4.4%	6.7%	0.65×	22.70

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (away no bet)	73.6%	68.5%	65.1%	1.05×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.4%	31.5%	34.9%	0.90×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga even goals	61.1%	59.0%	53.9%	1.09×	1.69
Malaga odd goals	38.9%	41.0%	46.1%	0.89×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.7%	87.7%	86.9%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.3%	12.3%	13.1%	0.94×	8.12

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.9%	60.6%	62.4%	0.97×	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.1%	39.4%	37.6%	1.05×	2.54

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.9%	55.1%	52.3%	1.05×	1.82
Alaves to score 2+ in a row	47.9%	45.9%	34.3%	1.34×	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.9%	19.5%	18.9%	1.03×	5.13
Alaves to score 3+ in a row	21.1%	19.5%	13.0%	1.50×	5.14
Malaga to score 2+ in a row	11.7%	12.1%	23.6%	0.51×	8.25
Malaga to score 3+ in a row	2.0%	2.5%	6.4%	0.40×	39.41

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves corners (+3.5)	91.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Alaves corners (+2.5)	86.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Alaves corners (+1.5)	79.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Malaga corners (+3.5)	69.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Malaga corners (+2.5)	59.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Alaves corners (-1.5)	50.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Malaga corners (+1.5)	49.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Alaves corners (-2.5)	40.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Alaves corners (-3.5)	30.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Malaga corners (-1.5)	20.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Malaga corners (-2.5)	13.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Malaga corners (-3.5)	8.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.95
12+ corners	34.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.1%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.8%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	35.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	34.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	26.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Under 7.5 corners	25.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.65

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.0%	11.4%	12.8%	0.89×	8.74
2-0	12.6%	11.4%	6.2%	1.84×	8.74
1-1	10.5%	11.4%	15.1%	0.76×	8.74
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.50
0-0	7.7%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.50
3-0	7.6%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.50
0-1	5.8%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.50
3-1	5.7%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.50
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
0-3	0.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.97×	58.32
1-2	4.0%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.30
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.32
2-2	3.6%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.32
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	3.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.30
4-1	2.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.30
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.31
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	3.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.30

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves leading at HT (DNB)	75.9%	77.4%	62.3%	1.24×	1.29
Malaga leading at HT (DNB)	24.1%	22.6%	37.7%	0.60×	4.43

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw (1X)	84.9%	80.6%	71.9%	1.12×	1.24
Alaves or Malaga (12)	77.6%	75.5%	74.8%	1.01×	1.33
Malaga or draw (X2)	37.5%	42.0%	53.2%	0.79×	2.38

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw at HT	85.6%	88.0%	78.5%	1.12×	1.14
Alaves or Malaga at HT	59.8%	57.0%	56.8%	1.00×	1.75
Malaga or draw at HT	54.6%	47.8%	64.5%	0.74×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw (1UP)	84.9%	88.7%	78.2%	1.14×	1.13
Malaga or draw (1UP)	37.5%	42.4%	60.1%	0.71×	2.36

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw in 2nd half	84.8%	81.2%	72.3%	1.12×	1.23
Alaves or Malaga in 2nd half	63.8%	64.1%	67.0%	0.96×	1.56
Malaga or draw in 2nd half	51.4%	54.4%	60.5%	0.90×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.8%	61.6%	62.2%	0.99×	1.62
Neither half drawn	38.2%	38.4%	37.8%	1.01×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (DNB)	80.6%	80.4%	62.5%	1.29×	1.24
Malaga (DNB)	19.4%	19.6%	37.5%	0.52×	5.09

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score first	65.1%	69.0%	55.4%	1.25×	1.45
Malaga to score first	27.1%	28.2%	39.6%	0.71×	3.55
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	5.1%	1.47×	13.31

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.8%	54.9%	44.7%	1.23×	1.82
Both teams to score	44.2%	45.1%	55.3%	0.82×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.3%	41.7%	35.4%	1.18×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	33.7%	34.4%	40.3%	0.85×	2.91
Not both score & over 2.5	13.4%	12.3%	9.5%	1.30×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	10.5%	12.3%	15.1%	0.82×	8.12

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.6%	89.1%	86.2%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.4%	10.9%	13.8%	0.79×	9.14

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.2%	75.5%	71.4%	1.06×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.8%	24.5%	28.6%	0.86×	4.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	66.1%	62.0%	60.3%	1.03×	1.61
Both score 2nd half only	17.4%	15.7%	23.1%	0.68×	6.39
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	10.7%	11.2%	0.96×	9.32
Both score in both halves	3.4%	5.0%	5.6%	0.89×	20.04

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.5%	82.5%	83.3%	0.99×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.5%	17.5%	16.7%	1.05×	5.71

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.9%	53.3%	54.8%	0.97×	1.88
A half without a goal	48.1%	46.7%	45.2%	1.03×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.3%	49.8%	0.95×	2.12
0-1 goals	27.5%	26.6%	24.8%	1.07×	3.76
4-6 goals	23.9%	22.8%	23.4%	0.98×	4.38
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	2.2%	0.82×	54.73

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to score exactly 0	47.1%	42.7%	30.3%	1.41×	2.34
Malaga to score exactly 1	35.5%	36.0%	38.0%	0.95×	2.78
Malaga to score exactly 2	13.4%	12.8%	22.0%	0.58×	7.78
Malaga to score 3+	4.1%	4.6%	10.0%	0.46×	21.97

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score exactly 1	29.7%	26.5%	38.4%	0.69×	3.77
Alaves to score 3+	27.1%	26.5%	19.7%	1.35×	3.77
Alaves to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Alaves to score exactly 0	16.4%	18.9%	19.6%	0.97×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves leading at HT	45.4%	52.2%	35.5%	1.47×	1.92
Draw at HT	40.2%	43.0%	43.2%	1.00×	2.33
Malaga leading at HT	14.4%	12.0%	21.5%	0.56×	8.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves -1: 2	37.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Alaves -1: 1	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Alaves -1: X	25.9%	26.6%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:1)	37.5%	37.4%	53.2%	0.70×	2.68
Alaves (0:1)	36.6%	37.3%	20.8%	1.80×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	25.9%	27.0%	26.2%	1.03×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:2)	63.4%	67.3%	79.2%	0.85×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	19.4%	15.3%	11.0%	1.39×	6.55
Alaves (0:2)	17.2%	15.3%	10.0%	1.53×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:3)	82.8%	85.2%	90.0%	0.95×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.6%	10.0%	7.1%	1.40×	10.05
Alaves (0:3)	6.6%	5.8%	3.0%	1.93×	17.29

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:4)	93.4%	94.7%	97.0%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.5%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	83.22
Alaves (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	0.7%	1.60×	83.50

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (1:0)	84.9%	81.4%	71.9%	1.13×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.8%	12.8%	17.7%	0.72×	7.84
Malaga (1:0)	4.3%	3.3%	10.6%	0.31×	30.76

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (2:0)	95.7%	96.8%	89.4%	1.08×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.4%	2.3%	6.8%	0.33×	43.64
Malaga (2:0)	0.9%	2.3%	3.9%	0.59×	43.79

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.4%	48.0%	51.3%	0.93×	2.09
1st half highest scoring	32.1%	29.6%	26.3%	1.13×	3.37
Halves equal	26.5%	26.5%	22.5%	1.18×	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to concede	52.9%	53.3%	69.7%	0.76×	1.88
Alaves clean sheet	47.1%	46.7%	30.3%	1.54×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves clean sheet in 1st half	70.8%	67.8%	63.4%	1.07×	1.48
Alaves to concede in 1st half	29.2%	32.2%	36.6%	0.88×	3.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves over 2.5 corners	88.4%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Alaves over 3.5 corners	77.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Alaves over 4.5 corners	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Alaves under 6.5 corners	61.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Alaves over 5.5 corners	51.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Alaves under 5.5 corners	48.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Alaves over 6.5 corners	38.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Alaves under 4.5 corners	35.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Alaves under 3.5 corners	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Alaves under 2.5 corners	11.6%	13.7%	—	—	7.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves under 3.5 goals	89.0%	87.2%	92.7%	0.94×	1.15
Alaves over 0.5 goals	83.6%	82.1%	80.4%	1.02×	1.22
Alaves under 2.5 goals	72.9%	74.2%	80.3%	0.92×	1.35
Alaves over 1.5 goals	53.9%	53.2%	42.2%	1.26×	1.88
Alaves under 1.5 goals	46.1%	46.8%	57.8%	0.81×	2.14
Alaves over 2.5 goals	27.1%	25.8%	19.7%	1.31×	3.88
Alaves under 0.5 goals	16.4%	17.9%	19.6%	0.92×	5.59
Alaves over 3.5 goals	11.0%	12.8%	7.3%	1.74×	7.83

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves under 1.5 in 1st half	79.5%	77.4%	86.0%	0.90×	1.29
Alaves over 0.5 in 1st half	56.7%	58.1%	48.1%	1.21×	1.72
Alaves under 0.5 in 1st half	43.3%	41.9%	51.9%	0.81×	2.39
Alaves over 1.5 in 1st half	20.5%	22.6%	14.0%	1.62×	4.42

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.8%	56.7%	47.2%	1.20×	1.76
Malaga (home no bet)	40.2%	43.3%	52.8%	0.82×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves even goals	51.3%	50.6%	47.4%	1.07×	1.98
Alaves odd goals	48.7%	49.4%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.7%	32.2%	32.1%	1.00×	3.11
HT 1-0	25.7%	28.8%	22.7%	1.27×	3.47
HT 2-0	10.8%	10.9%	6.2%	1.75×	9.17
HT 0-1	10.6%	10.9%	16.2%	0.67×	9.17
HT 1-1	8.9%	7.1%	10.1%	0.71×	14.00
Any other HT score	5.8%	7.1%	4.5%	1.58×	14.05
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.43
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.3%	3.1%	0.74×	43.57
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.3%	1.5%	1.53×	43.59
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	1.2%	1.83×	43.66

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves at HT / Alaves at FT	40.6%	42.9%	26.5%	1.62×	2.33
Draw at HT / Alaves at FT	19.5%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.6%	12.7%	14.0%	0.91×	7.88
Malaga at HT / Malaga at FT	8.1%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.64
Draw at HT / Malaga at FT	6.1%	6.0%	11.5%	0.52×	16.70
Alaves at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	5.2%	0.66×	28.77
Malaga at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	6.1%	0.57×	28.77
Malaga at HT / Alaves at FT	2.4%	3.5%	2.7%	1.26×	28.83
Alaves at HT / Malaga at FT	0.9%	3.5%	4.0%	0.87×	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score last	65.1%	69.9%	55.7%	1.26×	1.43
Malaga to score last	27.1%	27.0%	39.3%	0.69×	3.71
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	5.1%	1.47×	13.31

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.3%	92.6%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Alaves to lead by 1 at any time	72.8%	74.3%	63.2%	1.18×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.1%	44.0%	41.6%	1.06×	2.27
Alaves to lead by 2 at any time	41.9%	39.2%	26.5%	1.48×	2.55
Malaga to lead by 1 at any time	30.3%	29.3%	47.1%	0.62×	3.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.8%	19.6%	16.7%	1.17×	5.11
Alaves to lead by 3 at any time	19.4%	14.9%	12.2%	1.22×	6.71
Malaga to lead by 2 at any time	7.3%	6.6%	15.5%	0.43×	15.11
Malaga to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	4.6%	0.34×	63.01

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves most corners	61.5%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Malaga most corners	28.7%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	9.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.6%	83.4%	81.2%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.9%	72.4%	73.1%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.9%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.7%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.4%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.6%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.6%	48.6%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.1%	48.6%	45.3%	1.07×	2.06
3-5 goals	42.5%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	35.5%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.9%	24.5%	23.4%	1.05×	4.08
4-5 goals	20.9%	24.5%	19.8%	1.24×	4.08
5-6 goals	10.1%	14.8%	11.7%	1.27×	6.74
7+ goals	1.6%	2.6%	2.2%	1.14×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves never behind	61.9%	67.4%	52.9%	1.27×	1.48
Malaga never behind	19.5%	18.9%	36.8%	0.51×	5.29

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	53.7%	0.95×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.7%	53.6%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.3%	46.4%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.2%	52.0%	49.7%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.8%	48.0%	50.3%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.4%	95.4%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.3%	92.2%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.3%	87.6%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.5%	72.5%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.5%	72.5%	75.2%	0.96×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.8%	52.6%	50.3%	1.05×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	47.2%	47.4%	49.7%	0.95×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.5%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.5%	27.5%	25.5%	1.08×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.7%	12.4%	13.8%	0.90×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.8%	5.1%	1.52×	12.87
Over 5.5 goals	4.6%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.0%	97.2%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.4%	86.7%	84.3%	1.03×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.4%	67.5%	66.3%	1.02×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.2%	61.9%	66.7%	0.93×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.9%	38.1%	33.3%	1.14×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.6%	32.5%	33.7%	0.97×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.6%	13.3%	15.7%	0.85×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.0%	2.8%	6.4%	0.44×	35.78
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	2.3%	1.20×	35.88

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.3%	89.0%	89.9%	0.99×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.3%	69.1%	67.9%	1.02×	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.9%	69.0%	70.8%	0.98×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.1%	31.0%	29.2%	1.06×	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.7%	30.9%	32.1%	0.96×	3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.7%	11.0%	10.1%	1.09×	9.11

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.9%	82.8%	79.7%	1.04×	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.8%	77.8%	81.8%	0.95×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.9%	54.9%	53.7%	1.02×	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.1%	45.1%	46.3%	0.97×	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.2%	22.2%	18.2%	1.22×	4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.1%	17.2%	20.4%	0.85×	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to score in both halves	90.2%	89.8%	81.4%	1.10×	1.11
Alaves not to score in both halves	64.8%	63.6%	73.7%	0.86×	1.57
Alaves to score in both halves	35.2%	36.4%	26.3%	1.38×	2.75
Malaga to score in both halves	9.8%	10.2%	18.6%	0.55×	9.76

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.2%	46.6%	55.3%	0.84×	2.15
Only Alaves scores	39.4%	39.9%	25.3%	1.58×	2.51
Only Malaga scores	8.7%	7.2%	14.6%	0.49×	13.90
Neither team scores	7.7%	7.2%	5.1%	1.41×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.8%	17.4%	19.8%	0.88×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.8%	12.1%	11.8%	1.02×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	7.7%	7.6%	5.1%	1.50×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	7.1%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.08
6 or more goals	4.6%	4.5%	5.9%	0.76×	22.40

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.1%	44.3%	46.3%	0.96×	2.26
1 goal in 2nd half	34.7%	33.4%	35.6%	0.94×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	25.2%	29.7%	18.2%	1.63×	3.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to win both halves	97.8%	97.2%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Alaves not to win both halves	77.9%	75.3%	88.1%	0.85×	1.33
Alaves to win both halves	22.1%	24.7%	11.9%	2.08×	4.05
Malaga to win both halves	2.2%	2.8%	5.4%	0.51×	36.34

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to win neither half	72.6%	72.9%	56.2%	1.30×	1.37
Alaves to win either half	71.9%	72.8%	63.0%	1.16×	1.37
Alaves to win neither half	28.1%	27.2%	37.0%	0.73×	3.68
Malaga to win either half	27.4%	27.1%	43.8%	0.62×	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to win to nil	91.3%	92.0%	85.4%	1.08×	1.09
Alaves not to win to nil	60.6%	66.7%	74.7%	0.89×	1.50
Alaves to win to nil	39.4%	33.3%	25.3%	1.32×	3.00
Malaga to win to nil	8.7%	8.0%	14.6%	0.55×	12.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves by 1	25.9%	27.9%	26.2%	1.06×	3.59
Draw	22.4%	24.2%	25.2%	0.96×	4.14
Alaves by 2	19.4%	16.9%	11.0%	1.55×	5.90
Alaves by 3+	17.2%	16.9%	10.0%	1.70×	5.91
Malaga by 1	10.8%	11.8%	17.7%	0.67×	8.50
Malaga by 2	3.4%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	36.65
Malaga by 3+	0.9%	2.7%	3.9%	0.71×	36.73