Alaves v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
1.07 – 0.74
Goals − xG
+0.34 – +0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
32.1%
Draw
31.0%
Osasuna win
36.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.15 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 1.66 xGOsasuna 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Osasuna |
Valentin Rosier | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 10' |
 Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 12' |
Osasuna |
Valentin Rosier | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
| 26' |
Alaves |
Ibrahim Diabate | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Guridi |
| 28' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Ibáñez |
| 28' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jonny |
| 29' |
Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 30' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Guridi |
| 34' |
Alaves |
Victor Parada | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 35' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.19 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 43' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antonio Blanco |
| 48' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 48' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Alaves |
Victor Parada | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 56' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Ibáñez |
| 58' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rubén García |
| 61' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Torró |
| 75' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentin Rosier |
| 75' |
Osasuna |
Valentin Rosier | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 86' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonny |
| 90' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 94' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martínez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Victor Parada DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ángel Pérez MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Ibrahim Diabate FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jon Guridi ML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Youssef Lekhedim DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Carles Aleñá Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Boyé Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentin Rosier DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 0.61 |
| Jon Moncayola DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ante Budimir FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Rubén García AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.35 |
| Aimar Oroz AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Torró DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Kike Barja AML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Víctor Muñoz Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Raul García Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abel Bretones Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Herrando Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |