Alaves v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 18
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 12
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.64
Goals − xG
+0.33 – -0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
27.6%
Draw
26.8%
Real Betis win
45.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves have scored 14 from 14.7 expected and conceded 11 from 11.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWWLLDLLD last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 11
from 11.2 xG
Real Betis are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWWDWLD last 10
scored 16
from 18.2 xG
conceded 14
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.11–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.38–1.34 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 1.67 xGReal Betis 1.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Alaves |
Carlos Vicente | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lucas Boyé |
| 5' |
 Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 8' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 11' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 14' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Alaves |
Carlos Benavídez | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 14' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Blanco |
| 17' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Bartra |
| 24' |
Alaves |
Jonny | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 25' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Real Betis |
Ángel Ortiz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 27' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Bartra |
| 33' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Benavídez |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 41' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ángel Ortiz |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Goal | Pablo Ibáñez |
| 51' |
Real Betis |
Valentín Gómez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 58' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Roca |
| 63' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 67' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Boyé |
| 67' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 70' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Ibáñez |
| 73' |
Real Betis |
Ezequiel Ávila | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Roca |
| 82' |
Real Betis |
Ezequiel Ávila | 0.47 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Gómez |
| 91' |
Real Betis |
Ezequiel Ávila | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ezequiel Ávila |
| 94' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marc Roca |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ángel Ortiz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.42 |
| Valentín Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Pau López GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| Cédric Bakambu FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Antony AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Natan DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Pablo García Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Diego Llorente Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Iván Corralejo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.42 | 0.80 |
| Carlos Benavídez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jon Pacheco Dozagarat DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Boyé FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.78 |
| Carlos Vicente MR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.46 |
| Antonio Martínez FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.88 |
| Jon Guridi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Lekhedim Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |