Alaves v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 13
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.19
Goals − xG
-0.31 – +0.02
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
21.1%
Draw
24.4%
Real Madrid win
54.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–1.82 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 1.31 xGReal Madrid 1.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Real Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 10' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 23' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jude Bellingham |
| 26' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valde |
| 33' |
 Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.55 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Pacheco Dozagarat |
| 50' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 52' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 52' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Blanco |
| 67' |
Alaves |
Carlos Vicente | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antonio Blanco |
| 72' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 75' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vinícius Júnior |
| 85' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Victor Parada |
| 90' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 95' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 95' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Boyé FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Victor Parada DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| Antonio Blanco DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.74 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Jon Pacheco Dozagarat DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.04 |
| Denis Suárez MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach ML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calebe MR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Martínez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Carlos Vicente Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.72 |
| Carles Aleñá Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Lekhedim Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.18 | 0.95 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.39 |
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| Federico Valverde DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Rodrygo MR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Arda Güler MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.69 |
| Valde DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Dean Huijsen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Franco Mastantuono Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |