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Alaves v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 20 September 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

2–1
1.41 – 0.62 xG
Shots
10 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.53 – +0.38
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Carlos Vicente 16' — goalCarlos Martín 59' — goalDodi Lukebakio 82' — goal
Alaves 1.47 xGSevilla 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Isaac Romero 8' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Peque 8' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Carlos Vicente 16' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Antonio Martínez 19' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Saúl Ñíguez 29' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nahuel Tenaglia 31' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Adrià Pedrosa 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Antonio Martínez 47' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Dodi Lukebakio 49' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Carlos Martín 59' — Goal (0.88 xG, Open Play)Stoichkov 59' — Shot On Post (0.07 xG, Open Play)Saúl Ñíguez 59' — Saved Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Stoichkov 62' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Chidera Ejuke 67' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Carlos Vicente 71' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Joan Jordán 76' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Dodi Lukebakio 82' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kike García 85' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)
Alaves attacking right Sevilla attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
8' Sevilla Isaac Romero 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lucien Agoume
8' Sevilla Peque 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Isaac Romero
16' Alaves Carlos Vicente 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal Nahuel Tenaglia
19' Alaves Antonio Martínez 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Antonio Sivera
29' Sevilla Saúl Ñíguez 0.01 Open Play Missed Shot Adrià Pedrosa
31' Alaves Nahuel Tenaglia 0.09 Set Piece Saved Shot Joan Jordán
45' Sevilla Adrià Pedrosa 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
47' Alaves Antonio Martínez 0.11 Open Play Missed Shot Carlos Vicente
49' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Djibril Sow
59' Alaves Carlos Martín 0.88 Open Play Goal
59' Alaves Stoichkov 0.07 Open Play Shot On Post Carlos Vicente
59' Sevilla Saúl Ñíguez 0.47 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dodi Lukebakio
62' Alaves Stoichkov 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Joan Jordán
67' Sevilla Chidera Ejuke 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Saúl Ñíguez
71' Alaves Carlos Vicente 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Antonio Martínez
76' Alaves Joan Jordán 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
82' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Goal Saúl Ñíguez
85' Alaves Kike García 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Carlos Vicente

Players

Alaves

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nahuel Tenaglia DR 90 0 1 1 1 0.09 0.02 0.02
Joan Jordán DMC 90 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.19 0.12
Carlos Vicente AMR 90 1 0 2 3 0.04 0.28 0.33
Abdelkabir Abqar DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Antonio Sivera GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.10
Manuel Sánchez DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aleksander Sedlar DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Martín AML 81 1 0 1 0 0.88 0.00 1.08
Antonio Martínez FW 80 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.02 0.26
Stoichkov AMC 75 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 1.04
Ander Guevara DMC 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jon Guridi Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Blanco Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kike García Sub 10 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
Abderrahmane Rebbach Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Santiago Mouriño Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Sevilla

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Saúl Ñíguez MC 90 0 1 2 2 0.48 0.06 0.56
Dodi Lukebakio FWR 90 1 0 2 1 0.09 0.47 0.56
Peque FWL 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.49
Kike Salas DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.55
José Ángel Carmona DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Ørjan Nyland GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kelechi Iheanacho Sub 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Djibril Sow MC 74 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.51
Nianzou Kouassi DC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Adrià Pedrosa DL 70 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.01 0.06
Lucien Agoume MC 70 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.08
Chidera Ejuke Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.06
Valentín Barco Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Nemanja Gudelj Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Loic Bade Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Isaac Romero FW 13 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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