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Albacete v Eibar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 4 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Albacete win
29.0%
model 34.3%
Draw
27.4%
model 25.4%
Eibar win
43.5%
model 40.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.1%
  2. 0-1 10.1%
  3. 1-0 9.2%
  4. 1-2 8.6%
  5. 2-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.549.5% Under 2.550.5%
BTTS yes53.6% BTTS no46.4%
Albacete 1+71.7% Albacete 2+36.0%
Eibar 1+75.1% Eibar 2+40.5%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
53/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Eibar (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 55%
68.9% fair odds 1.45
moderate signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Albacete (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 90%
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 379 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Eibar carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1470.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Eibar have an estimated 43.5% win probability, against 29.0% for Albacete and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.26 for Albacete and 1.39 for Eibar.

Why Albacete

Nothing in the data singles out Albacete.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.26 to 1.39. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Eibar can win

Eibar carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1470. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Albacete, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Eibar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Albacete: 47% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Eibar: 43% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Eibar are the model's most likely outcome at 43.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.26–1.39 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.01–1.24 0-1 13% 39% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar to win 40.2% 43.7% 28.0% 1.56× 2.29
Albacete to win 34.3% 29.1% 45.5% 0.64× 3.43
Draw 25.4% 27.6% 26.6% 1.04× 3.63
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar & not both score 21.5% 22.6% 13.4% 1.68× 4.43
Eibar & both teams score 18.7% 17.8% 14.7% 1.21× 5.63
Draw & both teams score 18.7% 17.8% 17.5% 1.01× 5.63
Albacete & not both score 18.1% 17.8% 23.6% 0.75× 5.63
Albacete & both teams score 16.2% 17.7% 22.0% 0.81× 5.64
Draw & not both score 6.7% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.69
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar & over 1.5 30.2% 33.1% 19.4% 1.70× 3.02
Eibar & under 3.5 28.6% 25.5% 19.6% 1.30× 3.92
Albacete & over 1.5 25.2% 25.5% 32.6% 0.78× 3.93
Albacete & under 3.5 25.0% 21.5% 32.2% 0.67× 4.65
Eibar & over 2.5 23.4% 21.5% 16.6% 1.30× 4.65
Albacete & over 2.5 19.6% 17.6% 26.3% 0.67× 5.69
Draw & under 2.5 18.8% 17.6% 20.3% 0.87× 5.69
Draw & under 3.5 18.8% 17.6% 20.3% 0.87× 5.69
Draw & over 1.5 18.7% 17.6% 17.5% 1.00× 5.69
Eibar & under 2.5 16.9% 17.6% 11.6% 1.52× 5.69
Albacete & under 2.5 14.8% 12.7% 19.3% 0.66× 7.86
Eibar & over 3.5 11.6% 12.7% 8.5% 1.49× 7.87
Eibar & under 1.5 10.1% 12.7% 8.7% 1.46× 7.87
Albacete & over 3.5 9.4% 7.5% 13.3% 0.56× 13.40
Albacete & under 1.5 9.2% 7.5% 13.0% 0.57× 13.40
Draw & under 1.5 6.7% 7.5% 9.1% 0.82× 13.41
Draw & over 2.5 6.6% 7.5% 6.4% 1.16× 13.41
Draw & over 3.5 6.6% 7.5% 6.4% 1.16× 13.41
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (1UP) 56.3% 62.2% 1.61
Albacete (1UP) 51.1% 52.4% 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (2UP) 40.2% 46.4% 2.16
Albacete (2UP) 34.3% 30.7% 3.26
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.7% 37.4% 2.67
Eibar to win 2nd half 35.5% 37.4% 2.67
Albacete to win 2nd half 28.9% 27.5% 3.63
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (+2.5) 95.0% 97.1% 92.3% 1.05× 1.03
Eibar (+1.5) 85.3% 88.9% 80.5% 1.11× 1.13
Eibar (+0.5) 65.7% 68.9% 54.5% 1.26× 1.45
Albacete (+0.5) 59.8% 57.2% 72.0% 0.80× 1.75
Eibar (-0.5) 40.2% 42.8% 28.0% 1.53× 2.34
Albacete (-0.5) 34.3% 31.1% 45.5% 0.68× 3.21
Albacete (-1.5) 14.7% 11.1% 19.5% 0.57× 9.02
Albacete (-2.5) 5.0% 2.9% 7.7% 0.38× 34.31
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar to concede 71.8% 77.0% 77.5% 0.99× 1.30
Eibar clean sheet 28.2% 23.0% 22.5% 1.03× 4.34
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar clean sheet in 1st half 58.1% 60.3% 1.66
Eibar to concede in 1st half 41.9% 39.7% 2.52
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar under 6.5 corners 80.6% 81.4% 1.23
Eibar over 2.5 corners 77.4% 76.0% 1.32
Eibar under 5.5 corners 69.6% 67.6% 1.48
Eibar over 3.5 corners 61.1% 61.8% 1.62
Eibar under 4.5 corners 55.3% 57.1% 1.75
Eibar over 4.5 corners 44.7% 42.9% 2.33
Eibar under 3.5 corners 38.9% 38.2% 2.62
Eibar over 5.5 corners 30.4% 32.4% 3.08
Eibar under 2.5 corners 22.6% 24.0% 4.16
Eibar over 6.5 corners 19.4% 18.6% 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar under 3.5 goals 94.7% 92.7% 97.0% 0.96× 1.08
Eibar under 2.5 goals 83.6% 82.3% 89.2% 0.92× 1.22
Eibar over 0.5 goals 75.1% 75.2% 67.3% 1.12× 1.33
Eibar under 1.5 goals 59.5% 57.8% 69.4% 0.83× 1.73
Eibar over 1.5 goals 40.5% 42.2% 30.6% 1.38× 2.37
Eibar under 0.5 goals 24.9% 24.8% 32.7% 0.76× 4.03
Eibar over 2.5 goals 16.4% 17.7% 10.8% 1.64× 5.64
Eibar over 3.5 goals 5.3% 7.3% 3.0% 2.40× 13.69
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar under 1.5 in 1st half 89.2% 87.7% 1.14
Eibar under 0.5 in 1st half 57.3% 59.2% 1.69
Eibar over 0.5 in 1st half 42.7% 40.8% 2.45
Eibar over 1.5 in 1st half 10.8% 12.3% 8.14
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (away no bet) 57.4% 59.0% 63.1% 0.93× 1.70
Draw (away no bet) 42.6% 41.0% 36.9% 1.11× 2.44
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar even goals 53.1% 52.4% 54.7% 0.96× 1.91
Eibar odd goals 46.9% 47.6% 45.3% 1.05× 2.10
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 86.1% 86.4% 1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.9% 13.6% 7.33
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 62.1% 66.3% 1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals 37.9% 33.7% 2.96
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.1% 52.9% 1.89
Eibar to score 2+ in a row 32.3% 33.9% 2.95
Albacete to score 2+ in a row 27.8% 25.2% 3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.2% 17.8% 5.61
Eibar to score 3+ in a row 10.4% 12.1% 8.24
Albacete to score 3+ in a row 8.1% 7.4% 13.60
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete corners (+3.5) 90.9% 89.5% 1.12
Albacete corners (+2.5) 85.8% 84.5% 1.18
Albacete corners (+1.5) 79.0% 74.8% 1.34
Eibar corners (+3.5) 69.9% 65.8% 1.52
Eibar corners (+2.5) 60.4% 61.9% 1.62
Albacete corners (-1.5) 50.0% 52.5% 1.91
Eibar corners (+1.5) 50.0% 47.5% 2.10
Albacete corners (-2.5) 39.6% 38.1% 2.62
Albacete corners (-3.5) 30.1% 34.2% 2.93
Eibar corners (-1.5) 21.0% 25.2% 3.98
Eibar corners (-2.5) 14.2% 15.5% 6.45
Eibar corners (-3.5) 9.1% 10.5% 9.56
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 37.3% 33.9% 2.95
0-8 corners 32.5% 33.3% 3.01
9-11 corners 30.3% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.0% 76.5% 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 71.4% 72.6% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 67.5% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 62.7% 63.3% 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 57.2% 57.9% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 53.1% 53.2% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 46.9% 46.8% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 42.8% 42.1% 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 37.3% 36.7% 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 32.5% 32.3% 3.10
Over 12.5 corners 28.6% 27.4% 3.65
Under 7.5 corners 23.0% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.1% 11.6% 11.2% 1.03× 8.63
0-1 10.1% 11.6% 8.7% 1.33× 8.64
1-0 9.2% 7.3% 13.0% 0.56× 13.74
1-2 8.6% 7.3% 7.0% 1.03× 13.74
2-1 7.8% 7.3% 10.1% 0.72× 13.74
0-0 6.7% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.75
0-2 6.8% 7.3% 2.9% 2.47× 13.75
2-0 5.6% 7.3% 6.4% 1.13× 13.75
2-2 5.4% 7.3% 5.7% 1.28× 13.75
1-3 4.0% 1.8% 3.6% 0.51× 55.41
0-3 3.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.43× 55.43
2-3 2.5% 1.8% 2.3% 0.78× 55.45
3-1 3.3% 1.8% 4.5% 0.40× 55.43
1-4 1.4% 1.8% 0.8% 2.15× 55.47
3-0 2.4% 1.8% 3.0% 0.59× 55.45
3-2 2.3% 1.8% 2.8% 0.64× 55.45
Any other score 2.3% 1.8% 2.7% 0.66× 55.45
0-4 1.1% 1.8% 0.7% 2.45× 55.48
2-4 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 2.45× 55.49
3-3 1.1% 1.8% 0.7% 2.45× 55.48
3-4 0.4% 1.8% 0.2% 8.58× 55.50
4-0 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% 1.56× 55.49
4-1 1.0% 1.8% 1.9% 0.95× 55.48
4-2 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% 1.56× 55.49
4-3 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 5.72× 55.50
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 8.58× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar leading at HT (DNB) 50.7% 54.9% 1.82
Albacete leading at HT (DNB) 49.3% 45.1% 2.22
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete or Eibar (12) 74.6% 72.4% 73.4% 0.99× 1.38
Eibar or draw (X2) 65.7% 70.9% 54.5% 1.30× 1.41
Albacete or draw (1X) 59.8% 56.3% 72.0% 0.78× 1.78
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar or draw at HT 72.4% 71.5% 1.40
Albacete or draw at HT 71.6% 71.4% 1.40
Albacete or Eibar at HT 56.0% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar or draw (1UP) 65.7% 74.9% 1.34
Albacete or draw (1UP) 59.8% 64.1% 1.56
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar or draw in 2nd half 71.1% 72.5% 1.38
Albacete or draw in 2nd half 64.5% 62.6% 1.60
Albacete or Eibar in 2nd half 64.3% 62.6% 1.60
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.3% 59.5% 1.68
Neither half drawn 35.7% 40.5% 2.47
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (DNB) 53.9% 52.7% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
Albacete (DNB) 46.1% 47.3% 61.9% 0.76× 2.12
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar to score first 48.9% 46.3% 2.16
Albacete to score first 44.4% 41.5% 2.41
No goal scored 6.7% 6.2% 16.03
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 53.6% 52.9% 54.0% 0.98× 1.89
Not both teams to score 46.4% 47.1% 46.0% 1.02× 2.12
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 41.5% 42.3% 42.9% 0.99× 2.37
Not both score & under 2.5 38.4% 37.5% 39.8% 0.94× 2.67
Both score & under 2.5 12.1% 11.7% 11.2% 1.04× 8.53
Not both score & over 2.5 8.0% 8.7% 6.3% 1.38× 11.47
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.4% 85.5% 85.6% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.6% 14.5% 14.4% 1.01× 6.89
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.0% 70.4% 1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.0% 29.6% 3.38
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 58.4% 57.7% 1.73
Both score 2nd half only 23.8% 24.4% 4.09
Both score 1st half only 12.6% 11.6% 8.65
Both score in both halves 5.2% 6.4% 15.56
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.2% 83.2% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.8% 16.8% 5.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 52.5% 54.7% 1.83
A half without a goal 47.5% 45.3% 2.21
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.4% 45.9% 41.4% 1.11× 2.18
0-1 goals 26.0% 27.6% 30.7% 0.90× 3.62
4-6 goals 25.7% 27.6% 26.6% 1.04× 3.62
7+ goals 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.23× 51.57
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar to score exactly 1 34.6% 33.3% 36.9% 0.90× 3.00
Eibar to score exactly 0 24.9% 24.0% 32.7% 0.74× 4.16
Eibar to score exactly 2 24.1% 24.0% 19.9% 1.21× 4.17
Eibar to score 3+ 16.4% 18.3% 10.8% 1.69× 5.46
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to score exactly 1 35.7% 36.0% 35.6% 1.01× 2.78
Albacete to score exactly 0 28.2% 27.1% 22.5% 1.21× 3.69
Albacete to score exactly 2 22.6% 23.0% 25.0% 0.92× 4.36
Albacete to score 3+ 13.5% 13.5% 17.1% 0.79× 7.41
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.0% 41.8% 2.39
Eibar leading at HT 28.4% 28.6% 3.50
Albacete leading at HT 27.6% 28.5% 3.50
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar -1: 1 59.8% 56.3% 1.78
Eibar -1: X 21.6% 23.9% 4.18
Eibar -1: 2 18.6% 19.0% 5.27
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (0:1) 65.7% 69.7% 54.5% 1.28× 1.44
Draw (0:1) 19.6% 18.4% 26.1% 0.70× 5.45
Albacete (0:1) 14.7% 10.8% 19.5% 0.55× 9.28
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (0:2) 85.3% 89.5% 80.5% 1.11× 1.12
Draw (0:2) 9.7% 7.2% 12.0% 0.60× 13.81
Albacete (0:2) 5.0% 3.1% 7.7% 0.40× 32.50
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (0:3) 95.0% 97.1% 92.3% 1.05× 1.03
Draw (0:3) 3.6% 2.3% 5.4% 0.44× 42.81
Albacete (0:3) 1.4% 2.3% 2.4% 0.96× 43.29
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (0:4) 98.6% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.1% 1.2% 2.1% 0.59× 80.81
Albacete (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 2.93× 81.19
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (1:0) 59.8% 57.7% 72.0% 0.80× 1.73
Draw (1:0) 21.6% 22.9% 18.0% 1.27× 4.37
Eibar (1:0) 18.6% 16.4% 10.2% 1.61× 6.10
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (2:0) 81.4% 83.9% 89.8% 0.93× 1.19
Draw (2:0) 11.8% 12.1% 7.0% 1.72× 8.28
Eibar (2:0) 6.9% 6.6% 3.3% 2.02× 15.17
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.1% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 24.9% 23.2% 4.30
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to concede 75.1% 77.0% 67.3% 1.14× 1.30
Albacete clean sheet 24.9% 23.0% 32.7% 0.70× 4.36
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete clean sheet in 1st half 57.3% 59.1% 1.69
Albacete to concede in 1st half 42.7% 40.9% 2.44
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete over 2.5 corners 89.6% 86.3% 1.16
Albacete over 3.5 corners 79.3% 76.6% 1.31
Albacete over 4.5 corners 66.5% 66.7% 1.50
Albacete under 6.5 corners 60.1% 62.2% 1.61
Albacete over 5.5 corners 52.9% 52.6% 1.90
Albacete under 5.5 corners 47.1% 47.4% 2.11
Albacete over 6.5 corners 39.9% 37.8% 2.65
Albacete under 4.5 corners 33.5% 33.3% 3.01
Albacete under 3.5 corners 20.7% 23.4% 4.27
Albacete under 2.5 corners 10.4% 13.7% 7.30
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete under 3.5 goals 96.0% 97.7% 93.7% 1.04× 1.02
Albacete under 2.5 goals 86.5% 87.8% 82.9% 1.06× 1.14
Albacete over 0.5 goals 71.8% 72.7% 77.5% 0.94× 1.38
Albacete under 1.5 goals 64.0% 62.7% 58.0% 1.08× 1.60
Albacete over 1.5 goals 36.0% 37.3% 42.0% 0.89× 2.68
Albacete under 0.5 goals 28.2% 27.3% 22.5% 1.21× 3.66
Albacete over 2.5 goals 13.5% 12.2% 17.1% 0.71× 8.18
Albacete over 3.5 goals 4.0% 2.3% 6.3% 0.36× 43.66
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete under 1.5 in 1st half 89.6% 87.9% 1.14
Albacete under 0.5 in 1st half 58.1% 60.1% 1.66
Albacete over 0.5 in 1st half 41.9% 39.9% 2.51
Albacete over 1.5 in 1st half 10.4% 12.1% 8.27
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar (home no bet) 61.3% 61.3% 51.3% 1.19× 1.63
Draw (home no bet) 38.7% 38.7% 48.7% 0.80× 2.58
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete even goals 54.0% 50.3% 51.8% 0.97× 1.99
Albacete odd goals 46.0% 49.7% 48.2% 1.03× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.2% 30.5% 3.28
HT 0-1 18.6% 18.9% 5.28
HT 1-0 18.1% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-1 10.0% 11.2% 8.96
HT 0-2 5.2% 7.7% 13.03
HT 2-0 4.9% 2.5% 39.72
Any other HT score 3.7% 2.5% 39.79
HT 1-2 2.8% 2.5% 39.84
HT 2-1 2.7% 2.5% 39.84
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.5% 39.96
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar at HT / Eibar at FT 21.8% 21.4% 4.67
Albacete at HT / Albacete at FT 19.5% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Eibar at FT 15.8% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.4% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Albacete at FT 12.9% 12.0% 8.35
Albacete at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.6% 15.26
Eibar at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.32
Albacete at HT / Eibar at FT 2.7% 3.4% 29.40
Eibar at HT / Albacete at FT 1.9% 3.4% 29.43
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar to score last 48.8% 49.2% 2.04
Albacete to score last 44.4% 40.4% 2.47
No goal scored 6.7% 6.2% 16.03
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.3% 93.7% 1.07
Eibar to lead by 1 at any time 56.3% 59.6% 1.68
Albacete to lead by 1 at any time 51.1% 50.9% 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.8% 42.2% 2.37
Eibar to lead by 2 at any time 24.7% 19.9% 5.04
Albacete to lead by 2 at any time 20.4% 19.7% 5.07
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.2% 17.6% 5.68
Eibar to lead by 3 at any time 8.7% 7.1% 14.14
Albacete to lead by 3 at any time 6.5% 7.0% 14.23
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete most corners 60.6% 60.5% 1.65
Eibar most corners 29.6% 31.1% 3.22
Corners level 9.9% 8.4% 11.89
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.9% 87.9% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.2% 81.5% 78.0% 1.04× 1.23
2-6 goals 72.1% 73.6% 67.9% 1.09× 1.36
2-5 goals 68.7% 68.3% 64.3% 1.06× 1.46
1-3 goals 65.7% 68.3% 62.9% 1.09× 1.46
2-4 goals 61.0% 62.3% 56.5% 1.10× 1.61
3-6 goals 47.6% 48.0% 47.6% 1.01× 2.08
2-3 goals 46.4% 48.0% 41.4% 1.16× 2.08
3-5 goals 44.2% 43.6% 44.0% 0.99× 2.29
1-2 goals 43.7% 43.6% 41.9% 1.04× 2.29
3-4 goals 36.5% 38.8% 36.2% 1.07× 2.58
4-6 goals 25.7% 30.4% 26.6% 1.14× 3.29
4-5 goals 22.3% 24.7% 23.0% 1.07× 4.05
5-6 goals 11.2% 13.4% 11.5% 1.17× 7.45
7+ goals 1.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.28× 49.55
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar never behind 42.1% 50.7% 1.97
Albacete never behind 37.0% 45.4% 2.20
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.1% 48.4% 1.04× 1.99
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.9% 51.6% 0.97× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.4% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 44.6% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.7% 93.0% 94.9% 0.98× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.3% 93.0% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 87.0% 88.8% 87.1% 1.02× 1.13
Over 1.5 goals 74.0% 72.5% 69.3% 1.05× 1.38
Under 3.5 goals 72.4% 72.4% 72.0% 1.01× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 50.5% 53.5% 50.9% 1.05× 1.87
Over 2.5 goals 49.5% 46.5% 49.1% 0.95× 2.15
Over 3.5 goals 27.6% 27.6% 28.0% 0.98× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 26.0% 27.5% 30.7% 0.90× 3.63
Over 4.5 goals 13.0% 11.3% 12.9% 0.87× 8.89
Under 0.5 goals 6.7% 7.0% 9.1% 0.77× 14.19
Over 5.5 goals 5.3% 7.0% 5.1% 1.37× 14.23
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.0% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.2% 92.8% 94.4% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 84.7% 80.8% 84.8% 0.95× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 65.6% 68.0% 61.5% 1.10× 1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 64.6% 62.5% 64.5% 0.97× 1.60
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 35.4% 37.5% 35.5% 1.06× 2.67
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 34.4% 32.0% 38.5% 0.83× 3.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 15.3% 19.2% 15.2% 1.26× 5.21
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.8% 7.2% 5.6% 1.30× 13.82
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.0% 2.8% 1.6% 1.69× 36.15
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.0% 92.1% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.0% 68.6% 1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.8% 68.6% 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.2% 31.4% 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.0% 31.4% 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.0% 7.9% 12.72
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.5% 80.3% 1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.0% 80.3% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 45.9% 51.8% 1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 54.1% 48.2% 2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.0% 19.7% 5.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.5% 19.7% 5.08
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to score in both halves 78.5% 78.1% 1.28
Eibar not to score in both halves 75.9% 78.0% 1.28
Eibar to score in both halves 24.1% 22.0% 4.55
Albacete to score in both halves 21.5% 21.9% 4.58
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 53.6% 54.8% 54.0% 1.01× 1.83
Only Eibar scores 21.5% 22.8% 13.4% 1.70× 4.39
Only Albacete scores 18.1% 16.4% 23.6% 0.69× 6.09
Neither team scores 6.7% 6.6% 9.1% 0.73× 15.05
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.5% 21.6% 20.4% 1.06× 4.64
Exactly 3 goals 21.9% 21.5% 21.1% 1.02× 4.64
Exactly 1 goals 19.2% 18.6% 21.6% 0.86× 5.38
Exactly 4 goals 14.6% 12.4% 15.2% 0.81× 8.07
Exactly 5 goals 7.7% 7.6% 7.9% 0.97× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 6.7% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.14
6 or more goals 5.3% 7.6% 5.1% 1.48× 13.16
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 45.9% 50.8% 1.97
1 goal in 2nd half 33.0% 33.2% 3.01
No goals in 2nd half 21.0% 18.5% 5.42
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to win both halves 92.1% 93.4% 1.07
Eibar not to win both halves 90.0% 87.7% 1.14
Eibar to win both halves 10.0% 12.3% 8.10
Albacete to win both halves 7.9% 6.6% 15.06
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eibar to win either half 53.8% 54.0% 1.85
Albacete to win neither half 51.5% 53.9% 1.86
Albacete to win either half 48.5% 46.1% 2.17
Eibar to win neither half 46.2% 46.0% 2.17
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to win to nil 81.9% 83.2% 76.4% 1.09× 1.20
Eibar not to win to nil 78.5% 77.2% 86.6% 0.89× 1.30
Eibar to win to nil 21.5% 22.8% 13.4% 1.70× 4.39
Albacete to win to nil 18.1% 16.8% 23.6% 0.71× 5.96
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.4% 28.0% 26.6% 1.05× 3.57
Eibar by 1 21.6% 23.7% 18.0% 1.32× 4.21
Albacete by 1 19.6% 17.0% 26.1% 0.65× 5.88
Eibar by 2 11.8% 11.8% 7.0% 1.68× 8.44
Albacete by 2 9.7% 7.1% 12.0% 0.59× 14.05
Eibar by 3+ 6.9% 7.1% 3.3% 2.18× 14.12
Albacete by 3+ 5.0% 2.9% 7.7% 0.37× 35.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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