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Albacete v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Albacete win
36.6%
model 35.5%
Draw
26.7%
model 26.7%
Mallorca win
36.7%
model 37.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.6%
  2. 0-1 11.1%
  3. 1-0 10.7%
  4. 0-0 8.3%
  5. 1-2 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.544.3% Under 2.555.7%
BTTS yes49.5% BTTS no50.5%
Albacete 1+69.9% Albacete 2+33.7%
Mallorca 1+71.3% Mallorca 2+35.5%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.25. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
53/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 63%
68.0% fair odds 1.47
moderate signal · 2774 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
82.5% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1261 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Mallorca have an estimated 36.7% win probability, against 36.6% for Albacete and 26.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.20 for Albacete and 1.25 for Mallorca.

Why Albacete

Nothing in the data singles out Albacete.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.20 to 1.25. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Mallorca can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Mallorca's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Vedat Muriqi (0.59), Zito (0.22), Sergi Darder (0.19).

Availability

No lineup on record for Albacete, so availability is unknown. 1 of Mallorca's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Albacete: 47% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Mallorca: 58% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Mallorca are the model's most likely outcome at 36.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDLWDLLW last 10 scored 14 from 14.8 xG conceded 12 from 15.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.20–1.25 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.08–1.21 1-1 13% 40% 46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to win 39.3% 36.4% 28.1% 1.30× 2.75
Albacete to win 32.9% 30.4% 45.5% 0.67× 3.29
Draw 27.8% 27.9% 26.5% 1.05× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca & not both score 24.1% 21.8% 13.4% 1.63× 4.58
Albacete & not both score 20.0% 21.8% 23.6% 0.92× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 17.9% 18.0% 17.5% 1.03× 5.57
Mallorca & both teams score 15.1% 18.0% 14.8% 1.22× 5.57
Albacete & both teams score 12.9% 13.3% 22.0% 0.60× 7.54
Draw & not both score 9.9% 8.3% 9.1% 0.91× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca & under 3.5 31.0% 30.7% 19.6% 1.57× 3.25
Albacete & under 3.5 26.5% 26.1% 32.2% 0.81× 3.84
Mallorca & over 1.5 26.7% 26.1% 19.5% 1.34× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 22.8% 21.6% 20.2% 1.07× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 22.8% 21.6% 20.2% 1.07× 4.63
Albacete & over 1.5 21.7% 21.6% 32.6% 0.66× 4.63
Mallorca & under 2.5 20.0% 18.0% 11.5% 1.56× 5.56
Mallorca & over 2.5 19.3% 18.0% 16.7% 1.08× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.9% 18.0% 17.5% 1.03× 5.56
Albacete & under 2.5 17.2% 18.0% 19.3% 0.93× 5.56
Albacete & over 2.5 15.7% 18.0% 26.3% 0.68× 5.56
Mallorca & under 1.5 12.6% 12.8% 8.7% 1.48× 7.79
Albacete & under 1.5 11.3% 12.8% 13.0% 0.99× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 9.9% 7.9% 9.1% 0.87× 12.63
Mallorca & over 3.5 8.3% 7.9% 8.6% 0.92× 12.63
Albacete & over 3.5 6.5% 7.9% 13.4% 0.59× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.0% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 5.0% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (1UP) 53.4% 52.6% — — 1.90
Albacete (1UP) 47.8% 43.9% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (2UP) 39.3% 37.6% — — 2.66
Albacete (2UP) 32.9% 30.4% — — 3.29
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.0% 36.3% — — 2.76
Mallorca to win 2nd half 33.8% 34.1% — — 2.93
Albacete to win 2nd half 27.2% 26.0% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca under 1.5 in 2nd half 83.6% 84.3% — — 1.19
Mallorca over 0.5 in 2nd half 51.5% 52.7% — — 1.90
Mallorca under 0.5 in 2nd half 48.5% 47.4% — — 2.11
Mallorca over 1.5 in 2nd half 16.4% 15.7% — — 6.37
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.3% 88.6% — — 1.13
Albacete under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.1% 55.2% — — 1.81
Albacete over 0.5 in 2nd half 45.9% 44.8% — — 2.24
Albacete over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.7% 11.4% — — 8.74
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (+2.5) 96.2% 96.3% 92.3% 1.04× 1.04
Mallorca (+1.5) 87.2% 88.5% 80.4% 1.10× 1.13
Mallorca (+0.5) 67.1% 68.7% 54.5% 1.26× 1.46
Albacete (+0.5) 60.7% 62.9% 71.9% 0.88× 1.59
Mallorca (-0.5) 39.3% 37.1% 28.1% 1.32× 2.70
Albacete (-0.5) 32.9% 31.3% 45.5% 0.69× 3.19
Albacete (-1.5) 12.8% 11.5% 19.6% 0.59× 8.67
Albacete (-2.5) 3.8% 3.7% 7.7% 0.48× 27.07
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to concede 66.0% 72.3% 77.6% 0.93× 1.38
Mallorca clean sheet 34.0% 27.7% 22.4% 1.23× 3.61
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca clean sheet in 1st half 62.9% 64.4% — — 1.55
Mallorca to concede in 1st half 37.1% 35.6% — — 2.81
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca clean sheet in 2nd half 54.1% 54.9% — — 1.82
Mallorca to concede in 2nd half 45.9% 45.1% — — 2.22
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca under 6.5 corners 86.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Mallorca under 5.5 corners 77.1% 76.0% — — 1.32
Mallorca over 2.5 corners 71.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
Mallorca under 4.5 corners 63.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
Mallorca over 3.5 corners 53.0% 53.1% — — 1.89
Mallorca under 3.5 corners 47.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
Mallorca over 4.5 corners 36.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
Mallorca under 2.5 corners 28.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
Mallorca over 5.5 corners 22.9% 24.0% — — 4.18
Mallorca over 6.5 corners 13.5% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca under 3.5 goals 96.6% 97.5% 97.0% 1.01× 1.03
Mallorca under 2.5 goals 87.8% 87.8% 89.1% 0.99× 1.14
Mallorca over 0.5 goals 70.1% 71.8% 67.4% 1.07× 1.39
Mallorca under 1.5 goals 66.0% 68.0% 69.4% 0.98× 1.47
Mallorca over 1.5 goals 34.0% 32.0% 30.6% 1.05× 3.12
Mallorca under 0.5 goals 29.9% 28.2% 32.6% 0.86× 3.55
Mallorca over 2.5 goals 12.2% 12.2% 10.9% 1.12× 8.20
Mallorca over 3.5 goals 3.4% 2.5% 3.0% 0.82× 39.89
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca under 1.5 in 1st half 91.5% 93.8% — — 1.07
Mallorca under 0.5 in 1st half 61.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Mallorca over 0.5 in 1st half 38.3% 36.7% — — 2.73
Mallorca over 1.5 in 1st half 8.5% 6.2% — — 16.04
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca scores equally in both 41.3% 43.5% — — 2.30
Mallorca scores more in 2nd half 37.0% 37.5% — — 2.67
Mallorca scores more in 1st half 21.7% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (away no bet) 54.2% 51.7% 63.2% 0.82× 1.93
Draw (away no bet) 45.8% 48.3% 36.8% 1.31× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca even goals 54.5% 52.6% 54.6% 0.96× 1.90
Mallorca odd goals 45.5% 47.4% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.5% 91.8% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.5% 8.2% — — 12.17
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 53.5% 50.8% — — 1.97
Both halves under 1.5 goals 46.5% 49.2% — — 2.03
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 46.5% 46.1% — — 2.17
Mallorca to score 2+ in a row 27.5% 25.0% — — 3.99
Albacete to score 2+ in a row 22.9% 19.6% — — 5.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.0% 12.1% — — 8.29
Mallorca to score 3+ in a row 8.1% 5.6% — — 18.02
Albacete to score 3+ in a row 6.0% 5.5% — — 18.19
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete corners (+3.5) 95.2% 95.7% — — 1.05
Albacete corners (+2.5) 91.9% 89.6% — — 1.12
Albacete corners (+1.5) 87.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
Albacete corners (-1.5) 62.8% 61.8% — — 1.62
Mallorca corners (+3.5) 57.6% 57.1% — — 1.75
Albacete corners (-2.5) 52.5% 52.4% — — 1.91
Mallorca corners (+2.5) 47.5% 47.6% — — 2.10
Albacete corners (-3.5) 42.4% 42.9% — — 2.33
Mallorca corners (+1.5) 37.2% 38.2% — — 2.62
Mallorca corners (-1.5) 12.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Mallorca corners (-2.5) 8.1% 10.4% — — 9.59
Mallorca corners (-3.5) 4.8% 4.3% — — 23.42
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 40.1% 38.3% — — 2.61
0-8 corners 30.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 29.7% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 78.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 69.8% 67.8% — — 1.47
Under 12.5 corners 68.7% 67.8% — — 1.47
Over 9.5 corners 59.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 59.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 50.2% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 49.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Under 9.5 corners 40.1% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 40.1% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 12.5 corners 31.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 30.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 21.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 12.6% 11.5% 8.7% 1.32× 8.72
1-1 12.9% 11.5% 11.2% 1.02× 8.71
1-0 11.3% 11.5% 13.0% 0.88× 8.72
0-0 9.9% 7.4% 9.1% 0.81× 13.51
0-2 7.4% 7.4% 2.9% 2.52× 13.51
1-2 8.0% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
2-1 7.1% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.51
2-0 5.9% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.51
0-3 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.30
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
1-3 3.2% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.30
1-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.05× 58.31
2-2 4.3% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.29
2-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
3-0 2.1% 1.7% 3.0% 0.56× 58.31
3-1 2.6% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.30
3-2 1.6% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.31
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 8.18× 58.32
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.49× 58.32
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.32
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.49× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.45× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.18× 58.32
Any other score 1.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (2nd half DNB) 55.5% 59.5% — — 1.68
Albacete (2nd half DNB) 44.5% 40.5% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca leading at HT (DNB) 51.2% 56.2% — — 1.78
Albacete leading at HT (DNB) 48.8% 43.8% — — 2.28
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete or Mallorca (12) 72.2% 72.1% 73.5% 0.98× 1.39
Mallorca or draw (X2) 67.1% 69.6% 54.5% 1.28× 1.44
Albacete or draw (1X) 60.7% 63.6% 71.9% 0.88× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca or draw at HT 74.6% 74.8% — — 1.34
Albacete or draw at HT 73.3% 74.8% — — 1.34
Albacete or Mallorca at HT 52.1% 47.7% — — 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca or draw (1UP) 67.1% 76.3% — — 1.31
Albacete or draw (1UP) 60.7% 71.5% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca or draw in 2nd half 72.9% 74.0% — — 1.35
Albacete or draw in 2nd half 66.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
Albacete or Mallorca in 2nd half 61.0% 63.7% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.5% 68.3% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 31.5% 31.7% — — 3.15
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (DNB) 54.4% 51.0% 38.2% 1.33× 1.96
Albacete (DNB) 45.6% 49.0% 61.8% 0.79× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to score first 47.6% 46.0% — — 2.17
Albacete to score first 42.5% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 9.9% 7.5% — — 13.30
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.0% 51.3% 45.9% 1.12× 1.95
Both teams to score 46.0% 48.7% 54.1% 0.90× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 47.0% 44.4% 39.7% 1.12× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 33.0% 34.5% 43.0% 0.80× 2.90
Both score & under 2.5 12.9% 12.4% 11.2% 1.10× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.0% 8.3% 6.3% 1.32× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.0% 89.0% 85.6% 1.04× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 10.0% 11.0% 14.4% 0.77× 9.07
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 76.4% 74.8% — — 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 23.6% 25.2% — — 3.97
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 65.6% 63.1% — — 1.58
Both score 2nd half only 20.2% 20.9% — — 4.79
Both score 1st half only 10.8% 10.8% — — 9.30
Both score in both halves 3.4% 4.9% — — 20.42
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.8% 85.3% — — 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.2% 14.7% — — 6.79
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 55.0% 53.1% — — 1.88
A goal in each half 45.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.5% 47.2% 41.3% 1.14× 2.12
0-1 goals 33.7% 30.7% 30.6% 1.00× 3.25
4-6 goals 18.9% 20.2% 26.7% 0.76× 4.95
7+ goals 0.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.17× 54.44
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to score exactly 1 36.1% 35.9% 36.9% 0.97× 2.78
Mallorca to score exactly 0 29.9% 27.4% 32.6% 0.84× 3.65
Mallorca to score exactly 2 21.8% 22.3% 19.8% 1.12× 4.49
Mallorca to score 3+ 12.2% 12.9% 10.9% 1.18× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.6% 35.6% 1.00× 2.81
Albacete to score exactly 0 34.0% 32.6% 22.4% 1.45× 3.07
Albacete to score exactly 2 19.8% 18.8% 24.9% 0.75× 5.33
Albacete to score 3+ 9.5% 10.4% 17.2% 0.60× 9.66
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.9% 52.3% — — 1.91
Mallorca leading at HT 26.7% 25.2% — — 3.97
Albacete leading at HT 25.4% 25.2% — — 3.97
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca -1: 1 60.7% 62.5% — — 1.60
Mallorca -1: X 22.5% 23.5% — — 4.26
Mallorca -1: 2 16.8% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (0:1) 67.1% 65.2% 54.5% 1.20× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 20.2% 24.2% 26.0% 0.93× 4.13
Albacete (0:1) 12.8% 13.7% 19.6% 0.70× 7.29
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (0:2) 87.2% 87.1% 80.4% 1.08× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.9% 7.7% 12.1% 0.64× 13.03
Albacete (0:2) 3.8% 3.8% 7.7% 0.49× 26.65
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (0:3) 96.2% 96.6% 92.3% 1.05× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.9% 2.4% 5.3% 0.44× 42.10
Albacete (0:3) 0.9% 2.4% 2.4% 0.98× 42.19
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (0:4) 99.1% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 82.09
Albacete (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 2.90× 82.15
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (1:0) 60.7% 65.2% 71.9% 0.91× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 22.5% 21.7% 17.9% 1.21× 4.61
Mallorca (1:0) 16.8% 17.1% 10.3% 1.66× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (2:0) 83.2% 84.6% 89.7% 0.94× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.2% 10.3% 7.1% 1.44× 9.74
Mallorca (2:0) 5.6% 6.4% 3.2% 1.96× 15.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.0% 48.7% — — 2.06
Halves equal 27.3% 26.2% — — 3.82
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to concede 70.1% 73.0% 67.4% 1.08× 1.37
Albacete clean sheet 29.9% 27.0% 32.6% 0.83× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete clean sheet in 1st half 61.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Albacete to concede in 1st half 38.3% 36.8% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to concede in 2nd half 51.5% 52.8% — — 1.90
Albacete clean sheet in 2nd half 48.5% 47.2% — — 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete over 2.5 corners 92.9% 89.2% — — 1.12
Albacete over 3.5 corners 85.2% 86.2% — — 1.16
Albacete over 4.5 corners 74.6% 71.9% — — 1.39
Albacete over 5.5 corners 62.4% 62.3% — — 1.61
Albacete under 6.5 corners 50.1% 52.6% — — 1.90
Albacete over 6.5 corners 49.9% 47.4% — — 2.11
Albacete under 5.5 corners 37.6% 37.7% — — 2.65
Albacete under 4.5 corners 25.4% 28.1% — — 3.56
Albacete under 3.5 corners 14.8% 13.8% — — 7.26
Albacete under 2.5 corners 7.1% 10.8% — — 9.30
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete under 3.5 goals 97.6% 96.4% 93.7% 1.03× 1.04
Albacete under 2.5 goals 90.5% 92.2% 82.8% 1.11× 1.08
Albacete under 1.5 goals 70.7% 74.2% 58.0% 1.28× 1.35
Albacete over 0.5 goals 66.0% 67.9% 77.6% 0.88× 1.47
Albacete under 0.5 goals 34.0% 32.1% 22.4% 1.43× 3.12
Albacete over 1.5 goals 29.3% 25.8% 42.0% 0.61× 3.88
Albacete over 2.5 goals 9.5% 7.8% 17.2% 0.45× 12.85
Albacete over 3.5 goals 2.4% 3.6% 6.3% 0.58× 27.56
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete under 1.5 in 1st half 92.1% 94.7% — — 1.06
Albacete under 0.5 in 1st half 62.9% 64.0% — — 1.56
Albacete over 0.5 in 1st half 37.1% 36.0% — — 2.78
Albacete over 1.5 in 1st half 7.9% 5.3% — — 18.99
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete scores equally in both 44.4% 42.1% — — 2.37
Albacete scores more in 2nd half 32.8% 33.2% — — 3.01
Albacete scores more in 1st half 22.8% 21.1% — — 4.74
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca (home no bet) 58.6% 56.4% 51.4% 1.10× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 41.4% 43.6% 48.6% 0.90× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete even goals 55.8% 55.3% 51.7% 1.07× 1.81
Albacete odd goals 44.2% 44.7% 48.3% 0.93× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.7% 39.3% — — 2.54
HT 0-1 18.8% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-0 18.1% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 8.6% 6.9% — — 14.44
HT 0-2 4.5% 2.4% — — 41.91
HT 2-0 4.2% 2.4% — — 41.94
Any other HT score 2.5% 2.4% — — 42.05
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.4% — — 42.07
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.4% — — 42.08
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca at HT / Mallorca at FT 20.8% 21.6% — — 4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.4% 16.8% — — 5.95
Albacete at HT / Albacete at FT 18.2% 16.8% — — 5.95
Draw at HT / Mallorca at FT 16.4% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Albacete at FT 13.2% 12.6% — — 7.91
Albacete at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 6.1% — — 16.50
Mallorca at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.5% — — 28.81
Albacete at HT / Mallorca at FT 2.1% 3.5% — — 28.89
Mallorca at HT / Albacete at FT 1.5% 3.5% — — 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca to score last 47.6% 46.5% — — 2.15
Albacete to score last 42.6% 40.1% — — 2.49
No goal scored 9.9% 7.5% — — 13.30
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.1% 92.6% — — 1.08
Mallorca to lead by 1 at any time 53.4% 50.8% — — 1.97
Albacete to lead by 1 at any time 47.8% 44.4% — — 2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 38.7% 34.7% — — 2.88
Mallorca to lead by 2 at any time 21.6% 19.5% — — 5.12
Albacete to lead by 2 at any time 17.2% 14.9% — — 6.72
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.8% 10.5% — — 9.53
Mallorca to lead by 3 at any time 6.9% 6.7% — — 14.98
Albacete to lead by 3 at any time 4.9% 1.7% — — 60.28
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete most corners 72.3% 70.6% — — 1.42
Mallorca most corners 19.4% 19.2% — — 5.20
Corners level 8.2% 8.3% — — 11.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.2% 87.4% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.9% 83.4% 78.1% 1.07× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.4% 72.3% 62.8% 1.15× 1.38
2-6 goals 65.4% 68.8% 67.9% 1.01× 1.45
2-5 goals 63.4% 63.3% 64.4% 0.98× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.1% 59.1% 56.6% 1.04× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.1% 53.2% 41.8% 1.27× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.5% 48.5% 41.3% 1.17× 2.06
3-6 goals 39.1% 39.2% 47.7% 0.82× 2.55
3-5 goals 37.1% 39.2% 44.1% 0.89× 2.55
3-4 goals 31.8% 35.2% 36.4% 0.97× 2.84
4-6 goals 18.9% 18.8% 26.7% 0.70× 5.31
4-5 goals 16.9% 18.8% 23.2% 0.81× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.3% 8.9% 11.4% 0.78× 11.27
7+ goals 0.9% 2.6% 1.6% 1.62× 39.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mallorca never behind 42.4% 48.6% — — 2.06
Albacete never behind 36.7% 44.1% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 48.5% 1.05× 1.96
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 51.5% 0.95× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.4% 57.7% — — 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.6% 42.4% — — 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.2% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.8% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.1% 95.4% 94.9% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 91.8% 92.3% 87.1% 1.06× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 80.2% 82.3% 71.8% 1.15× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 66.3% 66.3% 69.4% 0.96× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 60.0% 58.6% 50.8% 1.15× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 40.0% 41.4% 49.2% 0.84× 2.42
Under 1.5 goals 33.7% 33.7% 30.6% 1.10× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 19.8% 17.7% 28.2% 0.63× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 9.1% 0.85× 12.94
Over 4.5 goals 8.2% 7.7% 12.9% 0.60× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 2.9% 4.6% 5.1% 0.89× 21.85
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.1% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.9% 97.2% 94.4% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 90.7% 92.4% 84.8% 1.09× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 75.2% 75.9% 64.3% 1.18× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 54.3% 51.9% 61.6% 0.84× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 45.7% 48.1% 38.4% 1.25× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 24.8% 24.1% 35.7% 0.68× 4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.3% 7.6% 15.2% 0.50× 13.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.1% 2.8% 5.6% 0.50× 35.58
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.9% 2.8% 1.6% 1.72× 35.64
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.9% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 75.6% 78.4% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.3% 63.1% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.7% 36.9% — — 2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half 24.4% 21.6% — — 4.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.1% 7.3% — — 13.67
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.8% 83.0% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.9% 77.6% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 61.4% 61.3% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 38.6% 38.7% — — 2.58
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.1% 22.4% — — 4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.2% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to score in both halves 82.9% 84.2% — — 1.19
Mallorca not to score in both halves 80.3% 84.1% — — 1.19
Mallorca to score in both halves 19.7% 15.9% — — 6.29
Albacete to score in both halves 17.1% 15.8% — — 6.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.0% 50.7% 54.1% 0.94× 1.97
Only Mallorca scores 24.1% 22.3% 13.4% 1.66× 4.49
Only Albacete scores 20.0% 22.3% 23.6% 0.94× 4.49
Neither team scores 9.9% 7.1% 9.1% 0.78× 14.01
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.3% 24.9% 20.3% 1.22× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 23.9% 22.6% 21.6% 1.05× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.2% 22.6% 21.1% 1.07× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 11.6% 12.1% 15.4% 0.79× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 9.9% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 5.3% 7.6% 7.9% 0.97× 13.15
6 or more goals 2.9% 4.5% 5.1% 0.87× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 38.7% 37.4% — — 2.67
1 goal in 1st half 36.8% 37.4% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 17.3% 15.6% — — 6.41
3+ goals in 1st half 7.1% 7.3% — — 13.67
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 38.6% 40.5% — — 2.47
1 goal in 2nd half 35.3% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goals in 2nd half 26.1% 29.4% — — 3.41
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to win both halves 93.1% 94.2% — — 1.06
Mallorca not to win both halves 91.0% 94.1% — — 1.06
Mallorca to win both halves 9.0% 5.9% — — 16.95
Albacete to win both halves 6.9% 5.8% — — 17.10
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to win neither half 54.3% 54.3% — — 1.84
Mallorca to win either half 51.5% 54.2% — — 1.84
Mallorca to win neither half 48.5% 45.8% — — 2.19
Albacete to win either half 45.7% 45.7% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to win to nil 80.0% 78.1% 76.4% 1.02× 1.28
Mallorca not to win to nil 75.9% 78.1% 86.6% 0.90× 1.28
Mallorca to win to nil 24.1% 21.9% 13.4% 1.63× 4.56
Albacete to win to nil 20.0% 21.9% 23.6% 0.93× 4.57
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.8% 27.9% 26.5% 1.05× 3.59
Mallorca by 1 22.5% 24.1% 17.9% 1.35× 4.15
Albacete by 1 20.2% 24.1% 26.0% 0.93× 4.15
Mallorca by 2 11.2% 11.7% 7.1% 1.65× 8.51
Albacete by 2 8.9% 7.2% 12.1% 0.60× 13.90
Mallorca by 3+ 5.6% 7.2% 3.2% 2.21× 13.91
Albacete by 3+ 3.8% 2.7% 7.7% 0.36× 36.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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