Albion v Progreso — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · URU-Primera Division · 2627

URU-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Albion

0–1

18:00 UTC

Progreso

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 7 Sep, 07:51 · 10h before kick-off

Albion win

54.9%

model 54.5%

Draw

22.6%

model 24.5%

Progreso win

22.5%

model 21.0%

552323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.9%
1-1 11.5%
2-0 10.7%
2-1 9.4%
0-0 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.6%	Under 2.5	55.4%
BTTS yes	46.0%	BTTS no	54.0%
Albion 1+	79.5%	Albion 2+	47.1%
Progreso 1+	58.3%	Progreso 2+	21.8%

Expected goals 1.59 – 0.87. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

20/100

Data quality

50/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Albion or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 68%

78.5% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 1358 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Albion not to win both halves

Win both halves

82.9% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 589 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Albion carry the stronger rating, 1500 Elo against 1383.

Risk factors

Data quality is 50/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0036 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Albion have an estimated 54.9% win probability, against 22.6% for the draw and 22.5% for Progreso. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.59 for Albion and 0.87 for Progreso.

Why Albion

Albion carry the stronger rating, 1500 Elo against 1383.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Progreso can win

Nothing in the data singles out Progreso.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Albion, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Progreso, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Albion: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Progreso: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Albion are the model's most likely outcome at 54.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.9%. Confidence 20/100, data quality 50/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	542421	1.59–0.87	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	552421	1.62–0.90	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	592318	1.68–0.80	1-0 14%	45%	44%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	612317	1.78–0.81	1-0 14%	48%	46%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to win	58.8%	54.1%	40.6%	1.33×	1.85
Draw	23.3%	24.5%	27.6%	0.88×	4.09
Progreso to win	17.8%	19.3%	32.0%	0.61×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion & not both score	37.0%	33.2%	22.7%	1.46×	3.02
Albion & both teams score	21.8%	21.9%	18.0%	1.21×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	15.3%	17.9%	17.6%	1.02×	5.58
Progreso & not both score	10.5%	13.3%	18.2%	0.73×	7.55
Draw & not both score	8.0%	8.4%	10.2%	0.82×	11.93
Progreso & both teams score	7.3%	8.4%	13.9%	0.60×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion & over 1.5	44.4%	40.3%	29.4%	1.37×	2.48
Albion & under 3.5	42.4%	40.3%	31.4%	1.29×	2.48
Albion & over 2.5	32.6%	30.9%	22.5%	1.37×	3.24
Albion & under 2.5	26.3%	26.0%	18.2%	1.43×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	18.9%	18.0%	22.7%	0.79×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.9%	18.0%	22.7%	0.79×	5.56
Albion & over 3.5	16.4%	18.0%	9.4%	1.91×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.3%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Albion & under 1.5	14.4%	12.9%	11.4%	1.13×	7.77
Progreso & under 3.5	14.8%	12.9%	25.7%	0.50×	7.77
Progreso & over 1.5	10.9%	12.9%	19.8%	0.65×	7.77
Progreso & under 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	16.5%	0.48×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.70
Progreso & over 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	15.7%	0.50×	12.70
Progreso & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	4.4%	4.8%	5.1%	0.94×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.4%	4.8%	5.1%	0.94×	20.93
Progreso & over 3.5	3.0%	4.8%	6.5%	0.74×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (1UP)	69.8%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Progreso (1UP)	33.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (2UP)	58.8%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Progreso (2UP)	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.73

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to win 2nd half	46.3%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
2nd half drawn	35.7%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Progreso to win 2nd half	18.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso (+2.5)	85.6%	88.5%	92.5%	0.96×	1.13
Albion (+0.5)	82.2%	82.4%	68.0%	1.21×	1.21
Progreso (+1.5)	67.4%	68.7%	82.2%	0.84×	1.46
Albion (-0.5)	58.8%	57.0%	40.6%	1.40×	1.75
Progreso (+0.5)	41.2%	43.0%	59.4%	0.72×	2.33
Albion (-1.5)	32.6%	31.3%	17.8%	1.75×	3.20
Progreso (-0.5)	17.8%	17.6%	32.0%	0.55×	5.69
Albion (-2.5)	14.4%	11.5%	7.5%	1.54×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso to concede	81.4%	81.3%	71.8%	1.13×	1.23
Progreso clean sheet	18.6%	18.7%	28.2%	0.66×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso clean sheet in 1st half	48.5%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Progreso to concede in 1st half	51.5%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso under 3.5 goals	99.1%	97.6%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Progreso under 2.5 goals	95.3%	97.5%	92.4%	1.06×	1.03
Progreso under 1.5 goals	81.0%	81.4%	72.5%	1.12×	1.23
Progreso over 0.5 goals	54.9%	53.7%	67.3%	0.80×	1.86
Progreso under 0.5 goals	45.1%	46.3%	32.7%	1.41×	2.16
Progreso over 1.5 goals	19.0%	18.6%	27.5%	0.68×	5.38
Progreso over 2.5 goals	4.7%	2.5%	7.6%	0.32×	40.63
Progreso over 3.5 goals	0.9%	2.4%	2.7%	0.89×	40.84

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso under 1.5 in 1st half	95.9%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Progreso under 0.5 in 1st half	72.7%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Progreso over 0.5 in 1st half	27.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
Progreso over 1.5 in 1st half	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.01

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (away no bet)	71.6%	68.5%	59.5%	1.15×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	28.4%	31.5%	40.5%	0.78×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso even goals	60.2%	59.0%	54.5%	1.08×	1.70
Progreso odd goals	39.8%	41.0%	45.5%	0.90×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.2%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.8%	12.3%	—	—	8.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.2%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.8%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.4%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Albion to score 2+ in a row	44.0%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Albion to score 3+ in a row	18.1%	16.4%	—	—	6.12
Progreso to score 2+ in a row	13.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Progreso to score 3+ in a row	2.4%	2.6%	—	—	39.10

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.4%	11.5%	11.4%	1.01×	8.73
2-0	11.9%	11.5%	7.1%	1.62×	8.73
1-1	10.9%	11.5%	12.7%	0.90×	8.73
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.48
0-0	8.0%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.48
0-1	7.0%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.48
3-0	6.7%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.48
3-1	5.3%	7.4%	3.1%	2.36×	13.48
0-2	2.7%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.47
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.45×	58.49
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	8.8%	0.19×	58.46
1-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.48
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.36×	58.49
2-2	3.8%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.47
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.48
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.74×	58.49
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.79×	58.48
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.49
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.72×	58.49
4-0	2.8%	1.7%	1.2%	1.45×	58.47
4-1	2.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.48
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.48
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.72×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.72×	58.49
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.87×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion leading at HT (DNB)	73.7%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Progreso leading at HT (DNB)	26.3%	28.2%	—	—	3.55

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion or draw (1X)	82.2%	80.7%	68.0%	1.19×	1.24
Albion or Progreso (12)	76.7%	75.5%	72.4%	1.04×	1.32
Progreso or draw (X2)	41.2%	45.9%	59.4%	0.77×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion or draw at HT	85.2%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Progreso or draw at HT	58.5%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Albion or Progreso at HT	56.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion or draw (1UP)	82.2%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Progreso or draw (1UP)	41.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion or draw in 2nd half	82.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Albion or Progreso in 2nd half	64.3%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Progreso or draw in 2nd half	53.7%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.2%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (DNB)	76.7%	74.6%	55.9%	1.33×	1.34
Progreso (DNB)	23.3%	25.4%	44.1%	0.58×	3.94

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to score first	62.4%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Progreso to score first	29.5%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
No goal scored	8.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.6%	54.9%	50.8%	1.08×	1.82
Both teams to score	44.4%	45.1%	49.2%	0.92×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.0%	41.6%	44.5%	0.94×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	33.5%	34.3%	36.7%	0.94×	2.92
Not both score & over 2.5	11.6%	12.3%	6.5%	1.91×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	10.9%	12.3%	12.7%	0.97×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.5%	89.1%	89.6%	0.99×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.5%	10.9%	10.4%	1.05×	9.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.7%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.3%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Both score 2nd half only	20.0%	20.7%	—	—	4.83
Both score 1st half only	10.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.3%	5.0%	—	—	20.04

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.0%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.0%	14.1%	—	—	7.07

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A goal in each half	49.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.4%	46.1%	1.03×	2.11
0-1 goals	29.5%	26.5%	33.5%	0.79×	3.78
4-6 goals	22.5%	22.8%	19.8%	1.15×	4.38
7+ goals	1.4%	1.8%	1.0%	1.87×	54.67

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso to score exactly 0	45.1%	42.8%	32.7%	1.31×	2.33
Progreso to score exactly 1	35.9%	36.0%	40.0%	0.90×	2.78
Progreso to score exactly 2	14.3%	12.8%	20.0%	0.64×	7.80
Progreso to score 3+	4.7%	4.5%	7.6%	0.59×	21.98

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to score exactly 1	31.3%	32.6%	35.1%	0.93×	3.06
Albion to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	23.5%	1.13×	3.77
Albion to score 3+	23.9%	23.2%	13.5%	1.72×	4.30
Albion to score exactly 0	18.6%	18.9%	28.2%	0.67×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.7%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Albion leading at HT	41.5%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Progreso leading at HT	14.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion -1: 2	41.2%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Albion -1: 1	32.6%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Albion -1: X	26.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso (0:1)	41.2%	42.7%	59.4%	0.72×	2.34
Albion (0:1)	32.6%	30.0%	17.8%	1.68×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	26.2%	27.0%	22.9%	1.18×	3.71

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso (0:2)	67.4%	72.2%	82.2%	0.88×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	18.1%	15.3%	10.6%	1.44×	6.54
Albion (0:2)	14.4%	11.0%	7.5%	1.47×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso (0:3)	85.6%	90.8%	92.5%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	9.2%	5.8%	5.5%	1.06×	17.13
Albion (0:3)	5.2%	5.8%	2.2%	2.70×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso (0:4)	94.8%	94.7%	97.8%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.25
Albion (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	0.6%	2.04×	83.50

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (1:0)	82.2%	81.4%	68.0%	1.20×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	12.6%	12.8%	22.5%	0.57×	7.81
Progreso (1:0)	5.3%	6.9%	9.6%	0.72×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (2:0)	94.7%	94.0%	90.4%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.1%	2.3%	7.3%	0.31×	44.11
Progreso (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	2.5%	0.89×	44.30

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	26.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to concede	54.9%	53.2%	67.3%	0.79×	1.88
Albion clean sheet	45.1%	46.8%	32.7%	1.43×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion clean sheet in 1st half	72.7%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Albion to concede in 1st half	27.3%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion under 3.5 goals	90.9%	92.2%	95.5%	0.97×	1.08
Albion over 0.5 goals	81.4%	82.1%	71.8%	1.14×	1.22
Albion under 2.5 goals	76.2%	77.7%	86.5%	0.90×	1.29
Albion over 1.5 goals	50.2%	53.2%	36.9%	1.44×	1.88
Albion under 1.5 goals	49.8%	46.8%	63.1%	0.74×	2.14
Albion over 2.5 goals	23.9%	22.3%	13.5%	1.65×	4.49
Albion under 0.5 goals	18.6%	17.9%	28.2%	0.63×	5.59
Albion over 3.5 goals	9.1%	7.8%	4.5%	1.72×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion under 1.5 in 1st half	83.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Albion under 0.5 in 1st half	48.5%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Albion over 0.5 in 1st half	51.5%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Albion over 1.5 in 1st half	16.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	56.7%	56.7%	46.4%	1.22×	1.76
Progreso (home no bet)	43.3%	43.3%	53.6%	0.81×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion even goals	51.7%	50.6%	55.1%	0.92×	1.98
Albion odd goals	48.3%	49.4%	44.9%	1.10×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
HT 1-0	25.6%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
HT 0-1	11.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	9.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 1-1	8.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
Any other HT score	4.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.31
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.39
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.52
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.58

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion at HT / Albion at FT	36.1%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Draw at HT / Albion at FT	20.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Progreso at HT / Progreso at FT	8.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
Draw at HT / Progreso at FT	8.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Albion at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Progreso at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Progreso at HT / Albion at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Albion at HT / Progreso at FT	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to score last	62.4%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Progreso to score last	29.6%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	8.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.0%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Albion to lead by 1 at any time	69.8%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.3%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Albion to lead by 2 at any time	37.9%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Progreso to lead by 1 at any time	33.1%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Albion to lead by 3 at any time	16.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Progreso to lead by 2 at any time	8.5%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Progreso to lead by 3 at any time	1.7%	1.6%	—	—	62.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.9%	87.4%	86.3%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.3%	83.5%	80.8%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	69.2%	69.0%	65.7%	1.05×	1.45
1-3 goals	68.1%	69.0%	69.4%	0.99×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.5%	68.9%	62.9%	1.10×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.9%	59.2%	57.5%	1.03×	1.69
1-2 goals	46.8%	48.7%	47.1%	1.03×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.7%	46.1%	1.06×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.8%	43.6%	42.2%	1.03×	2.30
3-5 goals	41.1%	43.6%	39.4%	1.11×	2.30
3-4 goals	34.5%	35.4%	33.9%	1.04×	2.83
4-6 goals	22.5%	24.5%	19.8%	1.24×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.8%	18.6%	17.1%	1.09×	5.37
5-6 goals	9.3%	8.7%	8.4%	1.04×	11.43
7+ goals	1.4%	2.5%	1.0%	2.60×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion never behind	58.8%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Progreso never behind	22.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.8%	47.8%	1.06×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.2%	52.2%	0.94×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.1%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.9%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.9%	95.5%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.4%	87.7%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.2%	77.3%	79.4%	0.97×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.6%	72.5%	66.5%	1.09×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	54.9%	52.5%	57.1%	0.92×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	45.1%	47.5%	42.9%	1.11×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	29.5%	27.5%	33.5%	0.82×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	23.8%	22.7%	20.6%	1.10×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	10.6%	12.3%	9.2%	1.34×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	10.2%	0.76×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	4.1%	4.5%	3.7%	1.21×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.6%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.6%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.8%	86.7%	89.6%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.7%	67.4%	73.5%	0.92×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.5%	62.1%	56.2%	1.11×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.5%	37.9%	43.8%	0.87×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.3%	32.6%	26.5%	1.23×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.2%	13.3%	10.4%	1.27×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.4%	2.8%	3.9%	0.70×	36.09
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.4%	2.8%	1.0%	2.74×	36.18

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.1%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.8%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.2%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.9%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.52

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.4%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.0%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.6%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso not to score in both halves	89.6%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Albion not to score in both halves	68.2%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Albion to score in both halves	31.8%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Progreso to score in both halves	10.4%	14.1%	—	—	7.12

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.4%	46.6%	49.2%	0.95×	2.15
Only Albion scores	37.0%	39.8%	22.7%	1.75×	2.51
Only Progreso scores	10.5%	10.9%	18.2%	0.60×	9.15
Neither team scores	8.0%	7.2%	10.2%	0.71×	13.90

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.4%	25.0%	23.7%	1.05×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	21.4%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	21.3%	22.6%	22.5%	1.00×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	13.2%	12.1%	11.6%	1.04×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	8.0%	7.6%	10.2%	0.75×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	6.6%	7.6%	5.7%	1.34×	13.09
6 or more goals	4.1%	4.4%	3.7%	1.18×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.0%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
1 goal in 2nd half	34.4%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	23.6%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso not to win both halves	97.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Albion not to win both halves	80.9%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Albion to win both halves	19.1%	15.9%	—	—	6.29
Progreso to win both halves	2.6%	2.8%	—	—	36.15

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso to win neither half	69.9%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Albion to win either half	68.6%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Albion to win neither half	31.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Progreso to win either half	30.1%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Progreso not to win to nil	89.5%	88.2%	81.8%	1.08×	1.13
Albion not to win to nil	63.0%	66.8%	77.3%	0.86×	1.50
Albion to win to nil	37.0%	33.2%	22.7%	1.46×	3.01
Progreso to win to nil	10.5%	11.8%	18.2%	0.65×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion by 1	26.2%	27.8%	22.9%	1.21×	3.59
Draw	23.3%	24.2%	27.6%	0.87×	4.14
Albion by 2	18.1%	16.9%	10.6%	1.60×	5.91
Albion by 3+	14.4%	11.8%	7.5%	1.58×	8.47
Progreso by 1	12.6%	11.8%	22.5%	0.52×	8.48
Progreso by 2	4.1%	2.7%	7.3%	0.37×	36.95
Progreso by 3+	1.2%	2.7%	2.5%	1.06×	37.05

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.