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Aldosivi v Belgrano (Córdoba) — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Aldosivi win
23.4%
model 20.9%
Draw
28.0%
model 29.6%
Belgrano (Córdoba) win
48.6%
model 49.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 16.5%
  2. 0-0 13.4%
  3. 1-1 12.9%
  4. 0-2 11.0%
  5. 1-0 9.3%

Goals

Over 2.533.4% Under 2.566.6%
BTTS yes38.4% BTTS no61.6%
Aldosivi 1+52.3% Aldosivi 2+17.0%
Belgrano (Córdoba) 1+72.7% Belgrano (Córdoba) 2+37.3%

Expected goals 0.74 – 1.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Belgrano (Córdoba) carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1342.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Belgrano (Córdoba) have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 23.4% for Aldosivi. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.74 for Aldosivi and 1.30 for Belgrano (Córdoba).

Why Aldosivi

Nothing in the data singles out Aldosivi.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.0%. A combined 2.04 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Belgrano (Córdoba) can win

Belgrano (Córdoba) carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1342.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Aldosivi, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Belgrano (Córdoba), so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Aldosivi: 38% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Belgrano (Córdoba): 57% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Belgrano (Córdoba) are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 16.5%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 0.56–1.13 0-1 21% 24% 29%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win 49.2% 47.5% 27.8% 1.71× 2.10
Draw 32.9% 30.4% 30.6% 0.99× 3.29
Aldosivi to win 18.0% 19.3% 41.7% 0.46× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) & not both score 38.3% 33.2% 17.2% 1.93× 3.01
Draw & not both score 18.9% 17.9% 14.8% 1.21× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 14.0% 13.3% 15.9% 0.83× 7.54
Aldosivi & not both score 13.6% 13.3% 27.8% 0.48× 7.54
Belgrano (Córdoba) & both teams score 10.9% 13.2% 10.7% 1.24× 7.55
Aldosivi & both teams score 4.4% 4.9% 14.1% 0.34× 20.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) & under 3.5 43.2% 40.3% 23.6% 1.71× 2.48
Belgrano (Córdoba) & under 2.5 32.3% 30.9% 14.7% 2.10× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 30.9% 30.9% 28.1% 1.10× 3.24
Draw & under 3.5 30.9% 30.9% 28.1% 1.10× 3.24
Belgrano (Córdoba) & over 1.5 28.7% 26.0% 17.5% 1.48× 3.84
Belgrano (Córdoba) & under 1.5 20.5% 21.6% 10.3% 2.10× 4.62
Draw & under 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 14.8% 1.22× 5.56
Aldosivi & under 3.5 16.8% 18.0% 34.9% 0.52× 5.56
Belgrano (Córdoba) & over 2.5 16.9% 18.0% 13.2% 1.36× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.0% 12.9% 15.9% 0.81× 7.77
Aldosivi & under 2.5 12.9% 12.9% 23.6% 0.54× 7.77
Aldosivi & under 1.5 10.0% 12.9% 14.2% 0.90× 7.77
Aldosivi & over 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 27.6% 0.28× 12.70
Belgrano (Córdoba) & over 3.5 5.9% 7.9% 4.2% 1.86× 12.70
Aldosivi & over 2.5 5.0% 7.9% 18.2% 0.43× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 2.0% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.95
Draw & over 3.5 2.0% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.95
Aldosivi & over 3.5 1.2% 4.8% 7.0% 0.68× 20.96
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (1UP) 58.0% 58.1% 1.72
Aldosivi (1UP) 28.8% 27.1% 3.69
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (2UP) 49.2% 50.0% 2.00
Aldosivi (2UP) 18.0% 17.5% 5.72
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 45.6% 45.3% 2.21
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 39.1% 36.0% 2.78
Aldosivi to win 2nd half 15.3% 18.8% 5.31
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (+2.5) 99.3% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Belgrano (Córdoba) (+1.5) 95.7% 96.3% 82.5% 1.17× 1.04
Belgrano (Córdoba) (+0.5) 82.0% 82.4% 58.3% 1.41× 1.21
Aldosivi (+0.5) 50.8% 52.3% 72.2% 0.72× 1.91
Belgrano (Córdoba) (-0.5) 49.2% 47.7% 27.8% 1.72× 2.10
Aldosivi (-0.5) 18.0% 17.6% 41.7% 0.42× 5.69
Aldosivi (-1.5) 4.3% 3.7% 17.5% 0.21× 26.80
Aldosivi (-2.5) 0.7% 3.7% 5.0% 0.73× 27.03
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) clean sheet 57.1% 62.7% 31.9% 1.97× 1.60
Belgrano (Córdoba) to concede 42.9% 37.3% 68.1% 0.55× 2.68
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 78.6% 78.6% 1.27
Belgrano (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 21.4% 21.4% 4.67
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 83.5% 81.4% 1.23
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 74.4% 71.6% 1.40
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 73.2% 71.6% 1.40
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 59.4% 57.1% 1.75
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 57.3% 57.1% 1.75
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 42.7% 42.9% 2.33
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 40.6% 42.9% 2.33
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 26.8% 28.4% 3.52
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 25.6% 28.4% 3.52
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 16.6% 18.6% 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 97.2% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 89.5% 87.9% 93.3% 0.94× 1.14
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 69.0% 68.0% 78.2% 0.87× 1.47
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 67.6% 68.0% 57.6% 1.18× 1.47
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 32.4% 32.1% 42.4% 0.76× 3.12
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 31.0% 32.0% 21.8% 1.47× 3.12
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 10.5% 12.1% 6.7% 1.82× 8.27
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 2.8% 2.5% 1.1% 2.14× 40.73
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 92.4% 94.2% 1.06
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 63.7% 64.2% 1.56
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 36.3% 35.8% 2.79
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 7.6% 5.8% 17.17
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 64.7% 62.1% 42.3% 1.47× 1.61
Aldosivi (away no bet) 35.3% 37.9% 57.7% 0.66× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) even goals 55.3% 56.8% 58.4% 0.97× 1.76
Belgrano (Córdoba) odd goals 44.7% 43.2% 41.6% 1.04× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 96.0% 96.1% 1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals 4.0% 3.9% 25.58
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 62.3% 58.1% 1.72
Not both halves under 1.5 37.7% 41.9% 2.39
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 34.5% 29.2% 3.43
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 27.6% 25.1% 3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row 9.6% 5.7% 17.56
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 8.4% 5.7% 17.66
Aldosivi to score 2+ in a row 8.2% 5.7% 17.67
Aldosivi to score 3+ in a row 1.2% 2.5% 39.92
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi corners (+3.5) 87.8% 84.5% 1.18
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 80.9% 79.8% 1.25
Aldosivi corners (+2.5) 81.1% 79.8% 1.25
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 72.2% 70.8% 1.41
Aldosivi corners (+1.5) 72.2% 70.8% 1.41
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 61.8% 61.9% 1.62
Aldosivi corners (-1.5) 38.2% 38.1% 2.62
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 27.8% 29.2% 3.42
Aldosivi corners (-2.5) 27.8% 29.2% 3.42
Aldosivi corners (-3.5) 19.1% 20.2% 4.95
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 18.9% 20.2% 4.95
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 12.2% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 48.2% 41.8% 2.39
9-11 corners 29.4% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 22.4% 25.6% 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 84.3% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 77.6% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 69.3% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 63.3% 63.3% 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 59.3% 57.9% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 51.8% 53.2% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 48.2% 46.8% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 40.7% 42.1% 2.38
Under 7.5 corners 36.7% 36.7% 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 30.7% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 22.4% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 15.7% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 20.5% 20.1% 10.3% 1.95× 4.98
0-0 18.9% 13.8% 14.8% 0.93× 7.26
1-1 12.0% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.73
0-2 11.7% 11.5% 4.5% 2.56× 8.73
1-0 10.0% 11.5% 14.2% 0.81× 8.73
1-2 6.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.48
1-3 2.5% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.48
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
2-0 2.9% 1.7% 9.5% 0.18× 58.47
2-1 3.3% 1.7% 8.7% 0.20× 58.47
2-2 1.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.48
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.49
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 14.91× 58.49
3-0 0.5% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.49
3-1 0.6% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.49
3-2 0.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.49
3-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 14.91× 58.49
4-0 0.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.49
4-1 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.49
4-2 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.49
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.49
Any other score 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.49
0-3 4.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.46
0-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 67.6% 73.4% 1.36
Aldosivi leading at HT (DNB) 32.4% 26.6% 3.76
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw (X2) 82.0% 80.7% 58.3% 1.38× 1.24
Aldosivi or Belgrano (Córdoba) (12) 67.1% 69.6% 69.4% 1.00× 1.44
Aldosivi or draw (1X) 50.8% 52.5% 72.2% 0.73× 1.91
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw at HT 85.7% 88.0% 1.14
Aldosivi or draw at HT 70.1% 74.2% 1.35
Aldosivi or Belgrano (Córdoba) at HT 44.2% 43.2% 2.32
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 82.0% 88.4% 1.13
Aldosivi or draw (1UP) 50.8% 59.0% 1.69
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 84.7% 81.2% 1.23
Aldosivi or draw in 2nd half 60.9% 64.0% 1.56
Aldosivi or Belgrano (Córdoba) in 2nd half 54.4% 54.7% 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 75.6% 76.2% 1.31
Neither half drawn 24.4% 23.8% 4.21
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (DNB) 73.2% 71.4% 39.9% 1.79× 1.40
Aldosivi (DNB) 26.8% 28.6% 60.1% 0.48× 3.50
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score first 54.2% 53.9% 1.85
Aldosivi to score first 26.9% 28.2% 3.55
No goal scored 18.9% 18.6% 5.36
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 70.7% 62.3% 59.5% 1.05× 1.61
Both teams to score 29.3% 37.8% 40.5% 0.93× 2.65
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 64.1% 50.2% 52.9% 0.95× 1.99
Both score & over 2.5 17.3% 21.7% 27.2% 0.80× 4.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 6.6% 8.4% 6.8% 1.24× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 96.6% 91.7% 94.2% 0.97× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 3.4% 8.3% 5.8% 1.41× 12.11
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 86.5% 86.8% 1.15
Both teams to score in 2nd half 13.5% 13.2% 7.57
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 79.7% 77.7% 1.29
Both score 2nd half only 12.5% 10.7% 9.33
Both score 1st half only 6.8% 6.8% 14.80
Both score in both halves 1.0% 4.9% 20.57
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 92.2% 92.4% 1.08
Both teams to score by HT 7.8% 7.6% 13.11
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 68.4% 66.9% 1.50
A goal in each half 31.6% 33.1% 3.02
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 goals 49.4% 47.4% 39.1% 1.21× 2.11
2-3 goals 41.5% 42.1% 47.4% 0.89× 2.38
4-6 goals 8.9% 7.6% 13.3% 0.57× 13.13
7+ goals 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 3.98× 54.79
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 36.5% 36.0% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 32.4% 33.8% 42.4% 0.80× 2.96
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 20.6% 22.4% 15.3% 1.47× 4.46
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score 3+ 10.5% 12.8% 6.7% 1.92× 7.82
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi to score exactly 0 57.1% 44.8% 31.9% 1.41× 2.23
Aldosivi to score exactly 1 32.0% 32.7% 36.6% 0.89× 3.06
Aldosivi to score exactly 2 9.0% 10.3% 21.8% 0.47× 9.71
Aldosivi to score 3+ 1.9% 6.1% 10.0% 0.61× 16.42
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 55.8% 56.8% 1.76
Belgrano (Córdoba) leading at HT 29.9% 25.8% 3.87
Aldosivi leading at HT 14.3% 12.0% 8.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) -1: 1 50.8% 52.0% 1.92
Belgrano (Córdoba) -1: X 27.8% 26.5% 3.77
Belgrano (Córdoba) -1: 2 21.3% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (0:1) 82.0% 77.6% 58.3% 1.33× 1.29
Draw (0:1) 13.7% 13.9% 24.3% 0.57× 7.22
Aldosivi (0:1) 4.3% 5.8% 17.5% 0.33× 17.14
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (0:2) 95.7% 94.0% 82.5% 1.14× 1.06
Draw (0:2) 3.6% 3.8% 12.6% 0.30× 26.55
Aldosivi (0:2) 0.7% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 26.72
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (0:3) 99.3% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 0.6% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 42.26
Aldosivi (0:3) 0.1% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.28
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (0:4) 99.9% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Aldosivi (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 2.08× 83.75
Draw (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.75
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi (1:0) 50.8% 54.0% 72.2% 0.75× 1.85
Draw (1:0) 27.8% 25.1% 18.7% 1.34× 3.98
Belgrano (Córdoba) (1:0) 21.3% 21.8% 9.2% 2.37× 4.59
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi (2:0) 78.7% 80.4% 90.8% 0.88× 1.24
Draw (2:0) 14.4% 10.4% 6.3% 1.65× 9.62
Belgrano (Córdoba) (2:0) 6.9% 6.5% 3.0% 2.16× 15.50
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 41.4% 48.0% 2.09
Halves equal 34.1% 30.5% 3.28
1st half highest scoring 24.5% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi to concede 67.6% 66.5% 57.6% 1.16× 1.50
Aldosivi clean sheet 32.4% 33.5% 42.4% 0.79× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi clean sheet in 1st half 63.7% 64.2% 1.56
Aldosivi to concede in 1st half 36.3% 35.8% 2.79
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi over 2.5 corners 80.0% 81.0% 1.24
Aldosivi under 6.5 corners 77.2% 76.6% 1.31
Aldosivi under 5.5 corners 65.6% 66.7% 1.50
Aldosivi over 3.5 corners 64.9% 62.3% 1.61
Aldosivi under 4.5 corners 51.2% 52.6% 1.90
Aldosivi over 4.5 corners 48.8% 47.4% 2.11
Aldosivi under 3.5 corners 35.1% 37.7% 2.65
Aldosivi over 5.5 corners 34.4% 33.3% 3.01
Aldosivi over 6.5 corners 22.8% 23.4% 4.27
Aldosivi under 2.5 corners 20.0% 19.0% 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi under 3.5 goals 99.7% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Aldosivi under 2.5 goals 98.1% 96.4% 90.0% 1.07× 1.04
Aldosivi under 1.5 goals 89.1% 87.3% 68.3% 1.28× 1.15
Aldosivi under 0.5 goals 57.1% 58.8% 31.9% 1.84× 1.70
Aldosivi over 0.5 goals 42.9% 41.2% 68.1% 0.60× 2.43
Aldosivi over 1.5 goals 10.9% 12.7% 31.7% 0.40× 7.86
Aldosivi over 2.5 goals 1.9% 3.6% 10.0% 0.36× 27.53
Aldosivi over 3.5 goals 0.3% 3.6% 2.9% 1.26× 27.61
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi under 1.5 in 1st half 97.5% 97.8% 1.02
Aldosivi under 0.5 in 1st half 78.6% 77.3% 1.29
Aldosivi over 0.5 in 1st half 21.4% 22.7% 4.40
Aldosivi over 1.5 in 1st half 2.5% 2.2% 45.24
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (home no bet) 59.9% 56.8% 47.5% 1.19× 1.76
Draw (home no bet) 40.1% 43.2% 52.5% 0.82× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi even goals 66.3% 65.6% 55.7% 1.18× 1.52
Aldosivi odd goals 33.7% 34.4% 44.3% 0.78× 2.91
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 50.2% 48.9% 2.04
HT 0-1 22.5% 24.2% 4.14
HT 1-0 12.0% 10.9% 9.16
HT 1-1 5.5% 7.1% 14.05
HT 0-2 5.1% 7.1% 14.06
HT 2-0 1.5% 2.3% 43.60
HT 1-2 1.2% 2.3% 43.61
Any other HT score 1.3% 2.3% 43.61
HT 2-1 0.7% 2.3% 43.66
HT 2-2 0.1% 2.3% 43.69
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) at HT / Belgrano (Córdoba) at FT 26.0% 26.9% 3.72
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 25.8% 26.9% 3.72
Draw at HT / Belgrano (Córdoba) at FT 21.6% 21.7% 4.60
Aldosivi at HT / Aldosivi at FT 9.0% 6.0% 16.61
Draw at HT / Aldosivi at FT 8.4% 6.0% 16.63
Aldosivi at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.5% 28.77
Belgrano (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 3.3% 3.5% 28.79
Aldosivi at HT / Belgrano (Córdoba) at FT 1.5% 3.5% 28.86
Belgrano (Córdoba) at HT / Aldosivi at FT 0.5% 3.5% 28.90
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score last 54.2% 52.1% 1.92
Aldosivi to score last 26.9% 26.9% 3.72
No goal scored 18.9% 13.4% 7.49
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 81.1% 87.0% 1.15
Belgrano (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 58.0% 55.1% 1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 30.3% 29.3% 3.42
Aldosivi to lead by 1 at any time 28.8% 25.5% 3.92
Belgrano (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 24.3% 19.6% 5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 8.7% 6.6% 15.04
Belgrano (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 7.7% 6.6% 15.09
Aldosivi to lead by 2 at any time 6.0% 6.6% 15.17
Aldosivi to lead by 3 at any time 0.9% 1.6% 63.48
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi most corners 49.8% 46.9% 2.13
Belgrano (Córdoba) most corners 38.5% 39.3% 2.55
Corners level 11.7% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 80.4% 83.5% 84.3% 0.99× 1.20
1-4 goals 78.3% 78.6% 80.0% 0.98× 1.27
1-3 goals 72.0% 72.4% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
1-2 goals 57.2% 59.2% 51.5% 1.15× 1.69
2-6 goals 50.4% 53.2% 60.6% 0.88× 1.88
2-5 goals 49.8% 48.7% 60.0% 0.81× 2.06
2-4 goals 47.7% 48.7% 55.7% 0.87× 2.06
2-3 goals 41.5% 43.6% 47.4% 0.92× 2.30
3-6 goals 23.7% 24.5% 33.5% 0.73× 4.09
3-5 goals 23.1% 24.5% 32.9% 0.74× 4.09
3-4 goals 21.0% 24.5% 28.7% 0.85× 4.09
4-6 goals 8.9% 8.7% 13.3% 0.66× 11.44
4-5 goals 8.3% 8.7% 12.7% 0.69× 11.44
5-6 goals 2.7% 2.5% 4.9% 0.52× 39.22
7+ goals 0.2% 2.5% 0.5% 5.54× 39.34
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) never behind 52.4% 61.9% 1.62
Aldosivi never behind 23.2% 24.4% 4.10
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.6% 50.8% 49.1% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.4% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 62.7% 59.2% 1.69
Odd goals in 1st half 37.3% 40.8% 2.45
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 57.1% 59.6% 1.68
Odd goals in 2nd half 42.9% 40.4% 2.48
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.2% 95.5% 99.0% 0.97× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 97.1% 95.5% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 90.9% 92.3% 86.4% 1.07× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 81.1% 82.4% 85.2% 0.97× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 76.1% 77.3% 66.2% 1.17× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 50.6% 52.5% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
Under 1.5 goals 49.4% 47.5% 39.1% 1.22× 2.10
Over 2.5 goals 23.9% 22.7% 33.8% 0.67× 4.41
Under 0.5 goals 18.9% 17.6% 14.8% 1.19× 5.68
Over 3.5 goals 9.1% 7.7% 13.6% 0.57× 12.92
Over 4.5 goals 2.9% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.22
Over 5.5 goals 0.8% 4.5% 1.0% 4.35× 22.26
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.8% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 99.2% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 96.9% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 89.3% 86.8% 82.9% 1.05× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.4% 67.4% 53.6% 1.26× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.6% 32.6% 46.4% 0.70× 3.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 10.7% 13.2% 17.1% 0.77× 7.55
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 3.1% 2.8% 5.8% 0.48× 36.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 0.8% 2.8% 1.1% 2.56× 36.21
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.2% 2.8% 0.5% 5.98× 36.23
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 96.7% 97.2% 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 84.7% 86.4% 1.16
Under 0.5 in 1st half 50.2% 56.2% 1.78
Over 0.5 in 1st half 49.8% 43.8% 2.29
Over 1.5 in 1st half 15.3% 13.6% 7.33
Over 2.5 in 1st half 3.3% 2.8% 36.28
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 92.1% 89.2% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 73.7% 77.7% 1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.9% 61.7% 1.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.1% 38.3% 2.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.3% 22.3% 4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 7.9% 10.8% 9.26
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi not to score in both halves 94.2% 90.7% 1.10
Belgrano (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 82.2% 84.4% 1.19
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score in both halves 17.8% 15.6% 6.39
Aldosivi to score in both halves 5.8% 9.3% 10.76
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Belgrano (Córdoba) scores 38.3% 39.9% 17.2% 2.32× 2.51
Both teams score 29.3% 26.2% 40.5% 0.65× 3.82
Neither team scores 18.9% 16.1% 14.8% 1.09× 6.22
Only Aldosivi scores 13.6% 10.9% 27.8% 0.39× 9.14
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 30.6% 25.2% 24.4% 1.03× 3.97
Exactly 2 goals 26.7% 25.0% 27.2% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 0 goals 18.9% 17.4% 14.8% 1.18× 5.74
Exactly 3 goals 14.8% 12.1% 20.3% 0.60× 8.27
Exactly 4 goals 6.2% 7.6% 8.5% 0.90× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 2.1% 4.4% 4.4% 1.01× 22.69
6 or more goals 0.8% 4.4% 1.0% 4.27× 22.71
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 2nd half 37.1% 40.0% 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 36.6% 39.9% 2.50
2+ goals in 2nd half 26.3% 29.7% 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi not to win both halves 97.8% 97.2% 1.03
Belgrano (Córdoba) not to win both halves 88.2% 87.9% 1.14
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win both halves 11.8% 12.1% 8.30
Aldosivi to win both halves 2.2% 2.8% 36.34
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi to win neither half 72.6% 72.9% 1.37
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win either half 57.3% 59.5% 1.68
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win neither half 42.7% 40.5% 2.47
Aldosivi to win either half 27.4% 27.1% 3.69
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi not to win to nil 86.4% 88.2% 72.2% 1.22× 1.13
Belgrano (Córdoba) not to win to nil 61.7% 66.7% 82.8% 0.81× 1.50
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win to nil 38.3% 33.3% 17.2% 1.93× 3.01
Aldosivi to win to nil 13.6% 11.8% 27.8% 0.42× 8.49
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) by 1 27.8% 27.9% 18.7% 1.49× 3.59
Draw 32.9% 27.7% 30.6% 0.90× 3.62
Belgrano (Córdoba) by 2 14.4% 11.8% 6.3% 1.87× 8.48
Aldosivi by 1 13.7% 11.8% 24.3% 0.49× 8.48
Belgrano (Córdoba) by 3+ 6.9% 7.3% 3.0% 2.43× 13.79
Aldosivi by 2 3.6% 2.7% 12.6% 0.21× 36.98
Aldosivi by 3+ 0.7% 2.7% 5.0% 0.53× 37.07
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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