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Aldosivi v River Plate — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Aldosivi win
19.7%
Draw
28.1%
River Plate win
52.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 0.76–1.42 0-1 16% 37% 41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate to win 52.1% 51.5% 27.7% 1.86× 1.94
Draw 28.1% 27.9% 30.7% 0.91× 3.59
Aldosivi to win 19.8% 19.5% 41.8% 0.47× 5.14
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate & not both score 34.9% 29.7% 17.2% 1.73× 3.37
River Plate & both teams score 17.2% 17.9% 10.6% 1.69× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 16.4% 17.9% 15.9% 1.13× 5.58
Aldosivi & not both score 12.5% 13.3% 27.7% 0.48× 7.54
Draw & not both score 11.8% 13.3% 14.9% 0.89× 7.54
Aldosivi & both teams score 7.2% 8.4% 14.2% 0.59× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate & under 3.5 41.0% 40.3% 23.6% 1.71× 2.48
River Plate & over 1.5 36.5% 34.8% 17.5% 1.99× 2.87
River Plate & under 2.5 27.0% 26.0% 14.6% 1.78× 3.84
River Plate & over 2.5 25.1% 26.0% 13.2% 1.98× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 24.4% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 24.4% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.63
Aldosivi & under 3.5 17.0% 18.0% 34.8% 0.52× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.4% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
River Plate & under 1.5 15.6% 18.0% 10.3% 1.75× 5.56
Aldosivi & over 1.5 11.5% 12.9% 27.7% 0.47× 7.76
Aldosivi & under 2.5 11.5% 12.9% 23.6% 0.55× 7.76
Draw & under 1.5 11.8% 12.9% 14.9% 0.87× 7.76
River Plate & over 3.5 11.1% 12.9% 4.2% 3.04× 7.76
Aldosivi & under 1.5 8.2% 7.9% 14.2% 0.56× 12.65
Aldosivi & over 2.5 8.2% 7.9% 18.3% 0.43× 12.65
Draw & over 2.5 3.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.82× 20.86
Draw & over 3.5 3.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.82× 20.86
Aldosivi & over 3.5 2.8% 4.8% 7.1% 0.68× 20.86
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (1UP) 63.4% 63.2% 1.58
Aldosivi (1UP) 34.0% 33.0% 3.03
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (2UP) 52.1% 55.6% 1.80
Aldosivi (2UP) 19.8% 17.7% 5.66
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate to win 2nd half 43.1% 41.2% 2.43
2nd half drawn 39.2% 36.0% 2.78
Aldosivi to win 2nd half 17.7% 19.0% 5.25
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate under 1.5 in 2nd half 79.1% 79.7% 1.26
River Plate over 0.5 in 2nd half 57.2% 55.4% 1.80
River Plate under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.8% 44.6% 2.24
River Plate over 1.5 in 2nd half 20.9% 20.3% 4.92
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi under 1.5 in 2nd half 92.9% 94.1% 1.06
Aldosivi under 0.5 in 2nd half 64.8% 62.7% 1.59
Aldosivi over 0.5 in 2nd half 35.2% 37.3% 2.68
Aldosivi over 1.5 in 2nd half 7.1% 5.9% 16.82
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (+2.5) 98.7% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
River Plate (+1.5) 94.0% 92.1% 82.5% 1.12× 1.09
River Plate (+0.5) 80.2% 82.4% 58.2% 1.42× 1.21
River Plate (-0.5) 52.1% 52.4% 27.7% 1.89× 1.91
Aldosivi (+0.5) 47.9% 47.6% 72.3% 0.66× 2.10
Aldosivi (-0.5) 19.8% 17.6% 41.8% 0.42× 5.70
Aldosivi (-1.5) 6.0% 7.9% 17.5% 0.45× 12.61
Aldosivi (-2.5) 1.3% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 26.97
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate to concede 53.3% 55.9% 68.1% 0.82× 1.79
River Plate clean sheet 46.7% 44.1% 31.9% 1.38× 2.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate clean sheet in 1st half 72.1% 77.6% 1.29
River Plate to concede in 1st half 27.9% 22.4% 4.46
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate clean sheet in 2nd half 64.8% 60.4% 1.66
River Plate to concede in 2nd half 35.2% 39.6% 2.53
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate over 2.5 corners 82.8% 81.4% 1.23
River Plate under 6.5 corners 73.3% 71.6% 1.40
River Plate over 3.5 corners 68.9% 67.6% 1.48
River Plate under 5.5 corners 61.1% 61.8% 1.62
River Plate over 4.5 corners 53.5% 53.1% 1.89
River Plate under 4.5 corners 46.5% 46.9% 2.13
River Plate over 5.5 corners 38.9% 38.2% 2.62
River Plate under 3.5 corners 31.1% 32.4% 3.08
River Plate over 6.5 corners 26.7% 28.4% 3.52
River Plate under 2.5 corners 17.2% 18.6% 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate under 3.5 goals 94.5% 92.3% 98.9% 0.93× 1.08
River Plate under 2.5 goals 83.0% 81.4% 93.4% 0.87× 1.23
River Plate over 0.5 goals 75.7% 76.2% 57.6% 1.32× 1.31
River Plate under 1.5 goals 58.7% 59.4% 78.1% 0.76× 1.68
River Plate over 1.5 goals 41.3% 40.6% 21.9% 1.86× 2.46
River Plate under 0.5 goals 24.3% 23.8% 42.4% 0.56× 4.21
River Plate over 2.5 goals 17.0% 18.6% 6.6% 2.81× 5.36
River Plate over 3.5 goals 5.5% 7.7% 1.1% 6.71× 13.02
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate under 1.5 in 1st half 88.9% 89.1% 1.12
River Plate under 0.5 in 1st half 56.8% 62.5% 1.60
River Plate over 0.5 in 1st half 43.2% 37.5% 2.67
River Plate over 1.5 in 1st half 11.1% 10.9% 9.13
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate scores more in 2nd half 39.7% 36.5% 2.74
River Plate scores equally in both 37.4% 36.4% 2.74
River Plate scores more in 1st half 22.8% 22.4% 4.46
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 58.8% 57.4% 42.3% 1.36× 1.74
Aldosivi (away no bet) 41.2% 42.6% 57.7% 0.74× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate even goals 53.0% 52.8% 58.5% 0.90× 1.89
River Plate odd goals 47.0% 47.2% 41.5% 1.14× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.7% 92.5% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.3% 7.5% 13.30
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 48.8% 50.0% 2.00
Not both halves under 1.5 51.2% 50.0% 2.00
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 45.9% 45.8% 2.19
River Plate to score 2+ in a row 35.9% 36.4% 2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row 15.1% 16.3% 6.15
Aldosivi to score 2+ in a row 12.9% 12.2% 8.22
River Plate to score 3+ in a row 12.8% 12.2% 8.22
Aldosivi to score 3+ in a row 2.4% 2.6% 39.17
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate corners (+3.5) 89.8% 84.5% 1.18
River Plate corners (+2.5) 83.9% 79.8% 1.25
Aldosivi corners (+3.5) 77.2% 74.8% 1.34
River Plate corners (+1.5) 75.8% 74.8% 1.34
Aldosivi corners (+2.5) 67.9% 65.8% 1.52
Aldosivi corners (+1.5) 57.1% 57.1% 1.75
River Plate corners (-1.5) 42.9% 42.9% 2.33
River Plate corners (-2.5) 32.1% 34.2% 2.93
Aldosivi corners (-1.5) 24.2% 25.2% 3.97
River Plate corners (-3.5) 22.8% 25.2% 3.97
Aldosivi corners (-2.5) 16.1% 20.2% 4.95
Aldosivi corners (-3.5) 10.2% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 46.1% 41.7% 2.40
9-11 corners 29.8% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 24.1% 25.6% 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.8% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 75.9% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 67.2% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 65.2% 67.7% 1.48
Under 9.5 corners 57.2% 57.9% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 53.9% 53.2% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 46.1% 46.8% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 42.9% 42.1% 2.38
Under 7.5 corners 34.8% 32.3% 3.10
Over 10.5 corners 32.8% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 24.1% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 17.2% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 15.6% 13.8% 10.3% 1.34× 7.26
1-1 12.7% 11.4% 13.4% 0.85× 8.74
0-0 11.8% 11.4% 14.9% 0.77× 8.74
0-2 11.4% 11.4% 4.5% 2.56× 8.74
1-2 8.7% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.50
1-0 8.2% 7.4% 14.2% 0.52× 13.50
0-3 5.4% 7.4% 2.1% 3.60× 13.50
4-0 0.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.50× 58.32
4-1 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.14× 58.32
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.00× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.49× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.49× 58.32
Any other score 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.87× 58.31
0-4 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 3.00× 58.31
1-3 4.1% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.30
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.00× 58.31
2-0 3.3% 1.7% 9.5% 0.18× 58.30
2-1 4.7% 1.7% 8.7% 0.20× 58.29
2-2 3.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.31
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.1% 14.99× 58.32
3-0 0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.62× 58.31
3-1 1.2% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.31
3-2 0.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.00× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 14.99× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (2nd half DNB) 70.9% 68.0% 1.47
Aldosivi (2nd half DNB) 29.1% 32.0% 3.13
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate leading at HT (DNB) 66.2% 73.2% 1.37
Aldosivi leading at HT (DNB) 33.8% 26.8% 3.73
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate or draw (X2) 80.2% 80.5% 58.2% 1.38× 1.24
Aldosivi or River Plate (12) 71.9% 72.1% 69.3% 1.04× 1.39
Aldosivi or draw (1X) 47.9% 48.5% 72.3% 0.67× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate or draw at HT 82.8% 84.4% 1.18
Aldosivi or draw at HT 66.2% 66.2% 1.51
Aldosivi or River Plate at HT 51.0% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate or draw (1UP) 80.2% 88.2% 1.13
Aldosivi or draw (1UP) 47.9% 52.7% 1.90
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate or draw in 2nd half 82.3% 81.0% 1.24
Aldosivi or River Plate in 2nd half 60.8% 64.0% 1.56
Aldosivi or draw in 2nd half 56.9% 58.8% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.6% 69.5% 1.44
Neither half drawn 31.4% 30.5% 3.28
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (DNB) 72.5% 71.5% 39.9% 1.79× 1.40
Aldosivi (DNB) 27.5% 28.5% 60.1% 0.47× 3.50
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate to score first 57.4% 62.0% 1.61
Aldosivi to score first 30.9% 27.0% 3.70
No goal scored 11.8% 9.9% 10.13
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 59.2% 54.9% 59.5% 0.92× 1.82
Both teams to score 40.8% 45.1% 40.5% 1.11× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 50.2% 47.1% 52.9% 0.89× 2.13
Both score & over 2.5 28.1% 33.6% 27.2% 1.23× 2.98
Both score & under 2.5 12.7% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 9.0% 8.3% 6.8% 1.24× 11.99
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.7% 89.1% 94.1% 0.95× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.3% 10.9% 6.0% 1.84× 9.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 79.7% 75.5% 1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half 20.3% 24.5% 4.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 70.0% 62.8% 1.59
Both score 2nd half only 17.9% 15.7% 6.38
Both score 1st half only 9.7% 6.8% 14.64
Both score in both halves 2.4% 4.9% 20.26
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.9% 86.3% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 12.1% 13.7% 7.33
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 57.1% 57.3% 1.75
A goal in each half 42.9% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.8% 47.3% 47.3% 1.00× 2.12
0-1 goals 35.6% 35.1% 39.1% 0.90× 2.85
4-6 goals 16.9% 20.3% 13.4% 1.52× 4.93
7+ goals 0.7% 1.8% 0.5% 3.99× 54.82
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate to score exactly 1 34.4% 33.8% 35.8% 0.94× 2.96
River Plate to score exactly 0 24.3% 22.4% 42.4% 0.53× 4.47
River Plate to score exactly 2 24.3% 22.4% 15.3% 1.46× 4.47
River Plate to score 3+ 17.0% 19.6% 6.6% 2.96× 5.10
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi to score exactly 0 46.7% 37.0% 31.9% 1.16× 2.70
Aldosivi to score exactly 1 35.6% 35.6% 36.5% 0.98× 2.81
Aldosivi to score exactly 2 13.6% 14.4% 21.7% 0.66× 6.94
Aldosivi to score 3+ 4.2% 6.3% 10.1% 0.62× 15.93
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 49.0% 52.4% 1.91
River Plate leading at HT 33.8% 33.8% 2.96
Aldosivi leading at HT 17.2% 15.6% 6.43
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate -1: 1 47.9% 46.8% 2.14
River Plate -1: 2 26.1% 26.6% 3.77
River Plate -1: X 26.0% 26.6% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (0:1) 80.2% 77.4% 58.2% 1.33× 1.29
Draw (0:1) 13.8% 13.8% 24.4% 0.57× 7.23
Aldosivi (0:1) 6.0% 9.2% 17.5% 0.53× 10.82
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (0:2) 94.0% 90.8% 82.5% 1.10× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 4.6% 3.8% 12.6% 0.30× 26.34
Aldosivi (0:2) 1.3% 3.8% 5.0% 0.75× 26.53
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (0:3) 98.7% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 42.18
Aldosivi (0:3) 0.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.22
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (0:4) 99.8% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Aldosivi (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 2.09× 83.75
Draw (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.73
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi (1:0) 47.9% 49.5% 72.3% 0.68× 2.02
River Plate (1:0) 26.1% 25.1% 9.2% 2.74× 3.99
Draw (1:0) 26.0% 25.1% 18.7% 1.34× 3.99
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi (2:0) 73.9% 76.5% 90.8% 0.84× 1.31
Draw (2:0) 16.0% 15.5% 6.3% 2.47× 6.43
River Plate (2:0) 10.1% 10.4% 3.0% 3.49× 9.64
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.1% 48.1% 2.08
Halves equal 29.2% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 25.6% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi to concede 75.7% 76.0% 57.6% 1.32× 1.32
Aldosivi clean sheet 24.3% 24.0% 42.4% 0.57× 4.17
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi clean sheet in 1st half 56.8% 62.5% 1.60
Aldosivi to concede in 1st half 43.2% 37.5% 2.67
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi to concede in 2nd half 57.2% 55.6% 1.80
Aldosivi clean sheet in 2nd half 42.8% 44.4% 2.25
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi under 6.5 corners 84.8% 81.0% 1.24
Aldosivi under 5.5 corners 74.9% 71.9% 1.39
Aldosivi over 2.5 corners 73.0% 71.9% 1.39
Aldosivi under 4.5 corners 61.3% 62.2% 1.61
Aldosivi over 3.5 corners 55.4% 57.6% 1.74
Aldosivi under 3.5 corners 44.6% 42.4% 2.36
Aldosivi over 4.5 corners 38.7% 37.8% 2.65
Aldosivi under 2.5 corners 27.0% 28.1% 3.56
Aldosivi over 5.5 corners 25.1% 28.1% 3.56
Aldosivi over 6.5 corners 15.2% 19.0% 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi under 3.5 goals 99.2% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Aldosivi under 2.5 goals 95.8% 96.3% 89.9% 1.07× 1.04
Aldosivi under 1.5 goals 82.2% 82.1% 68.3% 1.20× 1.22
Aldosivi over 0.5 goals 53.3% 53.2% 68.1% 0.78× 1.88
Aldosivi under 0.5 goals 46.7% 46.8% 31.9% 1.47× 2.14
Aldosivi over 1.5 goals 17.8% 17.9% 31.7% 0.57× 5.58
Aldosivi over 2.5 goals 4.2% 3.7% 10.1% 0.36× 27.26
Aldosivi over 3.5 goals 0.8% 3.6% 2.9% 1.28× 27.41
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi under 1.5 in 1st half 95.7% 97.0% 1.03
Aldosivi under 0.5 in 1st half 72.1% 79.8% 1.25
Aldosivi over 0.5 in 1st half 27.9% 20.2% 4.95
Aldosivi over 1.5 in 1st half 4.3% 3.0% 32.95
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi scores equally in both 53.6% 57.1% 1.75
Aldosivi scores more in 2nd half 27.1% 28.0% 3.57
Aldosivi scores more in 1st half 19.3% 14.9% 6.69
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate (home no bet) 64.9% 60.1% 47.5% 1.27× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 35.1% 39.9% 52.5% 0.76× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi even goals 60.9% 55.9% 55.7% 1.00× 1.79
Aldosivi odd goals 39.1% 44.1% 44.3% 1.00× 2.27
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 41.0% 40.7% 2.46
HT 0-1 23.1% 24.2% 4.13
HT 1-0 13.3% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-1 7.7% 7.1% 14.02
HT 0-2 6.6% 7.1% 14.03
Any other HT score 2.4% 2.3% 43.53
HT 2-0 2.2% 2.3% 43.54
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.3% 43.55
HT 2-1 1.2% 2.3% 43.61
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.3% 43.68
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate at HT / River Plate at FT 28.9% 27.1% 3.69
Draw at HT / River Plate at FT 20.9% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 19.7% 16.8% 5.96
Aldosivi at HT / Aldosivi at FT 10.4% 12.6% 7.91
Draw at HT / Aldosivi at FT 8.5% 6.0% 16.63
Aldosivi at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.5% 28.75
River Plate at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% 28.77
Aldosivi at HT / River Plate at FT 2.3% 3.5% 28.83
River Plate at HT / Aldosivi at FT 0.9% 3.5% 28.89
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate to score last 57.4% 56.6% 1.77
Aldosivi to score last 30.8% 32.7% 3.06
No goal scored 11.8% 9.3% 10.80
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.2% 90.7% 1.10
River Plate to lead by 1 at any time 63.4% 61.4% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 39.5% 34.9% 2.86
Aldosivi to lead by 1 at any time 34.0% 29.4% 3.40
River Plate to lead by 2 at any time 30.7% 29.3% 3.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 13.4% 10.5% 9.54
River Plate to lead by 3 at any time 11.6% 10.4% 9.57
Aldosivi to lead by 2 at any time 8.9% 6.7% 15.03
Aldosivi to lead by 3 at any time 1.8% 1.6% 62.59
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate most corners 54.5% 52.0% 1.92
Aldosivi most corners 34.2% 34.4% 2.91
Corners level 11.3% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.9% 87.4% 84.2% 1.04× 1.15
1-4 goals 81.2% 83.4% 79.9% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.6% 72.4% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
2-6 goals 63.7% 63.4% 60.5% 1.05× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.0% 63.4% 60.0% 1.06× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.4% 59.1% 55.6% 1.06× 1.69
1-2 goals 51.1% 53.1% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.8% 48.6% 47.3% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 36.4% 39.2% 33.5% 1.17× 2.55
3-5 goals 34.7% 35.3% 33.0% 1.07× 2.83
3-4 goals 30.1% 35.3% 28.6% 1.23× 2.83
4-6 goals 16.9% 18.7% 13.4% 1.40× 5.34
4-5 goals 15.2% 18.7% 12.8% 1.46× 5.34
5-6 goals 6.3% 8.8% 5.0% 1.75× 11.33
7+ goals 0.7% 2.6% 0.5% 5.57× 39.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
River Plate never behind 54.2% 62.1% 1.61
Aldosivi never behind 24.8% 24.6% 4.07
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.5% 50.8% 49.1% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.5% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.5% 57.5% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 41.5% 42.5% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.1% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.9% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.6% 95.4% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 93.0% 92.2% 94.6% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 88.2% 87.6% 85.1% 1.03× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 82.4% 82.3% 86.3% 0.95× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 64.4% 61.7% 60.9% 1.01× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 62.9% 61.7% 66.1% 0.93× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 37.1% 38.3% 33.9% 1.13× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 35.6% 38.3% 39.1% 0.98× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 17.6% 17.7% 13.7% 1.29× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 11.8% 12.4% 14.9% 0.83× 8.08
Over 4.5 goals 7.0% 7.8% 5.4% 1.44× 12.87
Over 5.5 goals 2.4% 4.6% 1.0% 4.43× 21.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.3% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.5% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 92.2% 92.4% 94.1% 0.98× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 78.1% 75.9% 82.8% 0.92× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 51.0% 51.9% 46.4% 1.12× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 49.0% 48.1% 53.6% 0.90× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 21.9% 24.1% 17.2% 1.40× 4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 7.8% 7.6% 5.9% 1.30× 13.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.5% 2.8% 1.1% 2.59× 35.85
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.7% 2.8% 0.5% 6.05× 35.90
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.8% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 77.4% 78.8% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 59.0% 62.8% 1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 41.0% 37.2% 2.69
Over 1.5 in 1st half 22.6% 21.2% 4.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.2% 7.2% 13.91
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 86.1% 85.3% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 72.1% 77.7% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 63.1% 61.7% 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 36.9% 38.3% 2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 27.9% 22.3% 4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 13.9% 14.7% 6.81
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi not to score in both halves 90.2% 89.7% 1.11
River Plate not to score in both halves 75.3% 78.1% 1.28
River Plate to score in both halves 24.7% 21.9% 4.58
Aldosivi to score in both halves 9.8% 10.3% 9.74
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 40.8% 46.6% 40.5% 1.15× 2.15
Only River Plate scores 34.9% 33.3% 17.2% 1.94× 3.00
Only Aldosivi scores 12.5% 11.0% 27.7% 0.40× 9.10
Neither team scores 11.8% 11.0% 14.9% 0.74× 9.11
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.3% 24.9% 27.1% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 23.8% 22.6% 24.4% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 19.5% 17.4% 20.3% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 11.8% 12.1% 14.9% 0.81× 8.28
Exactly 4 goals 10.6% 12.1% 8.5% 1.43× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 1.00× 22.40
6 or more goals 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 4.33× 22.44
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 41.0% 41.4% 2.42
1 goal in 1st half 36.4% 37.1% 2.70
2 goals in 1st half 16.4% 15.2% 6.57
3+ goals in 1st half 6.2% 7.2% 13.91
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 36.9% 40.0% 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 35.3% 39.8% 2.51
No goals in 2nd half 27.9% 29.8% 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi not to win both halves 96.9% 97.2% 1.03
River Plate not to win both halves 85.4% 87.8% 1.14
River Plate to win both halves 14.6% 12.2% 8.22
Aldosivi to win both halves 3.1% 2.8% 35.95
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi to win neither half 68.2% 68.1% 1.47
River Plate to win either half 62.3% 65.0% 1.54
River Plate to win neither half 37.7% 35.0% 2.86
Aldosivi to win either half 31.8% 31.9% 3.13
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aldosivi not to win to nil 87.5% 88.2% 72.3% 1.22× 1.13
River Plate not to win to nil 65.1% 69.7% 82.8% 0.84× 1.44
River Plate to win to nil 34.9% 30.3% 17.2% 1.77× 3.30
Aldosivi to win to nil 12.5% 11.8% 27.7% 0.43× 8.44
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.1% 27.9% 30.7% 0.91× 3.59
River Plate by 1 26.0% 27.9% 18.7% 1.49× 3.59
River Plate by 2 16.0% 16.9% 6.3% 2.69× 5.91
Aldosivi by 1 13.8% 11.8% 24.4% 0.48× 8.49
River Plate by 3+ 10.1% 11.8% 3.0% 3.96× 8.50
Aldosivi by 2 4.6% 2.7% 12.6% 0.22× 36.61
Aldosivi by 3+ 1.3% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.72
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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