Alianza Atlético v Deportivo Garcilaso — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Alianza Atlético

18:00 UTC

Deportivo Garcilaso

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 31h before kick-off

Alianza Atlético win

44.2%

model 44.0%

Draw

27.9%

model 26.8%

Deportivo Garcilaso win

27.9%

model 29.2%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.4%
1-1 12.5%
0-1 10.5%
0-0 9.3%
2-1 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	40.8%	Under 2.5	59.2%
BTTS yes	45.8%	BTTS no	54.2%
Alianza Atlético 1+	73.0%	Alianza Atlético 2+	37.6%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+	63.5%	Deportivo Garcilaso 2+	26.7%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

85/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 64%

73.3% fair odds 1.36

moderate signal · 3256 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Deportivo Garcilaso (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Alianza Atlético have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 27.9% for Deportivo Garcilaso and 27.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.31 for Alianza Atlético and 1.01 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

Why Alianza Atlético

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. A combined 2.32 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Deportivo Garcilaso can win

Deportivo Garcilaso carry the stronger rating, 1610 Elo against 1562. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Alianza Atlético, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportivo Garcilaso, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Alianza Atlético: 39% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportivo Garcilaso: 42% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Alianza Atlético are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.4%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	442729	1.31–1.01	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	422929	1.16–0.90	1-0 15%	34%	40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to win	42.3%	42.9%	49.8%	0.86×	2.33
Draw	28.9%	27.9%	25.0%	1.12×	3.58
Deportivo Garcilaso to win	28.8%	27.9%	25.4%	1.10×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético & not both score	28.4%	25.2%	26.4%	0.95×	3.97
Deportivo Garcilaso & not both score	19.1%	18.0%	12.3%	1.46×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	16.7%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.57
Alianza Atlético & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	23.6%	0.56×	7.54
Draw & not both score	12.2%	13.3%	7.8%	1.70×	7.54
Deportivo Garcilaso & both teams score	9.7%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	11.99

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético & under 3.5	34.9%	30.8%	33.7%	0.91×	3.25
Alianza Atlético & over 1.5	27.0%	26.1%	38.0%	0.68×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	24.9%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	24.9%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Deportivo Garcilaso & under 3.5	24.7%	21.6%	19.4%	1.11×	4.63
Alianza Atlético & under 2.5	23.9%	21.6%	19.2%	1.13×	4.63
Alianza Atlético & over 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	30.8%	0.58×	5.55
Draw & over 1.5	16.7%	18.0%	17.4%	1.04×	5.56
Deportivo Garcilaso & over 1.5	16.9%	18.0%	17.4%	1.04×	5.56
Deportivo Garcilaso & under 2.5	17.1%	18.0%	11.1%	1.63×	5.56
Alianza Atlético & under 1.5	15.3%	18.0%	12.0%	1.51×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	12.2%	12.8%	7.8%	1.65×	7.79
Deportivo Garcilaso & under 1.5	12.0%	12.8%	8.2%	1.57×	7.79
Deportivo Garcilaso & over 2.5	11.7%	12.8%	14.5%	0.89×	7.79
Alianza Atlético & over 3.5	7.4%	7.9%	16.3%	0.49×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	3.9%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.82
Deportivo Garcilaso & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.2%	0.78×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (1UP)	54.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Deportivo Garcilaso (1UP)	42.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (2UP)	42.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Deportivo Garcilaso (2UP)	28.8%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.4%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Alianza Atlético to win 2nd half	33.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Deportivo Garcilaso to win 2nd half	25.4%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.7%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
Deportivo Garcilaso under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.2%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Deportivo Garcilaso over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.8%	45.6%	—	—	2.20
Deportivo Garcilaso over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.84

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.7%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Alianza Atlético under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.6%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Alianza Atlético over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.22
Alianza Atlético over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.3%	11.4%	—	—	8.76

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (+2.5)	94.2%	92.1%	88.6%	1.04×	1.09
Deportivo Garcilaso (+1.5)	82.2%	82.6%	75.4%	1.10×	1.21
Alianza Atlético (+0.5)	71.2%	73.6%	74.6%	0.99×	1.36
Deportivo Garcilaso (+0.5)	57.7%	57.1%	50.2%	1.14×	1.75
Alianza Atlético (-0.5)	42.3%	42.9%	49.8%	0.86×	2.33
Deportivo Garcilaso (-0.5)	28.8%	26.4%	25.4%	1.04×	3.80
Alianza Atlético (-1.5)	17.8%	17.4%	24.6%	0.71×	5.74
Alianza Atlético (-2.5)	5.8%	7.9%	11.4%	0.69×	12.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso to concede	68.7%	72.3%	80.1%	0.90×	1.38
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	31.3%	27.7%	19.9%	1.39×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet in 1st half	60.7%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Deportivo Garcilaso to concede in 1st half	39.3%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet in 2nd half	51.6%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Deportivo Garcilaso to concede in 2nd half	48.4%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso under 6.5 corners	92.5%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Deportivo Garcilaso under 5.5 corners	85.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Deportivo Garcilaso under 4.5 corners	75.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Deportivo Garcilaso under 3.5 corners	59.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Deportivo Garcilaso over 2.5 corners	59.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Deportivo Garcilaso under 2.5 corners	40.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Deportivo Garcilaso over 3.5 corners	40.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Deportivo Garcilaso over 4.5 corners	24.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Deportivo Garcilaso over 5.5 corners	14.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Deportivo Garcilaso over 6.5 corners	7.5%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.5%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Deportivo Garcilaso under 2.5 goals	93.7%	92.4%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Deportivo Garcilaso under 1.5 goals	77.2%	76.2%	71.6%	1.07×	1.31
Deportivo Garcilaso over 0.5 goals	59.4%	59.4%	65.9%	0.90×	1.68
Deportivo Garcilaso under 0.5 goals	40.6%	40.6%	34.1%	1.19×	2.47
Deportivo Garcilaso over 1.5 goals	22.8%	23.8%	28.4%	0.84×	4.21
Deportivo Garcilaso over 2.5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	8.0%	0.96×	13.08
Deportivo Garcilaso over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso under 1.5 in 1st half	94.9%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Deportivo Garcilaso under 0.5 in 1st half	69.7%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Deportivo Garcilaso over 0.5 in 1st half	30.3%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Deportivo Garcilaso over 1.5 in 1st half	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.69

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso scores equally in both	48.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more in 2nd half	31.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more in 1st half	19.3%	18.2%	—	—	5.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (away no bet)	59.4%	57.4%	66.6%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.6%	42.6%	33.4%	1.28×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso even goals	58.2%	56.9%	56.9%	1.00×	1.76
Deportivo Garcilaso odd goals	41.8%	43.1%	43.1%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.8%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	7.2%	8.3%	—	—	12.10

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	52.3%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Not both halves under 1.5	47.7%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	41.8%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
Alianza Atlético to score 2+ in a row	27.0%	24.9%	—	—	4.01
Deportivo Garcilaso to score 2+ in a row	17.7%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	11.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Alianza Atlético to score 3+ in a row	7.9%	5.5%	—	—	18.13
Deportivo Garcilaso to score 3+ in a row	4.0%	2.6%	—	—	38.56

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético corners (+3.5)	94.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Alianza Atlético corners (+2.5)	89.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Alianza Atlético corners (+1.5)	83.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (+3.5)	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (+2.5)	61.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Alianza Atlético corners (-1.5)	50.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (+1.5)	49.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Alianza Atlético corners (-2.5)	38.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Alianza Atlético corners (-3.5)	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (-1.5)	17.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (-2.5)	10.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Deportivo Garcilaso corners (-3.5)	5.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.3%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	16.4%	22.5%	—	—	4.44

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.9%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	83.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	76.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	67.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	54.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	45.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	32.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	23.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	16.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	11.1%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.3%	13.8%	12.0%	1.16×	7.24
1-1	12.8%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.71
0-0	12.2%	11.5%	7.8%	1.47×	8.71
0-1	12.0%	11.5%	8.2%	1.41×	8.71
2-0	8.6%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.51
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	3.1%	2.40×	13.51
1-2	6.0%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.16×	58.32
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
2-2	3.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
3-0	3.3%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.30
3-1	3.0%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.30
3-2	1.3%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.31
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.37×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.31
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.31
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.73×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	9.47×	58.32
Any other score	0.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (2nd half DNB)	56.6%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Deportivo Garcilaso (2nd half DNB)	43.4%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético leading at HT (DNB)	59.8%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Deportivo Garcilaso leading at HT (DNB)	40.2%	44.2%	—	—	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético or draw (1X)	71.2%	72.1%	74.6%	0.97×	1.39
Alianza Atlético or Deportivo Garcilaso (12)	71.1%	72.1%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (X2)	57.7%	57.1%	50.2%	1.14×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético or draw at HT	79.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw at HT	70.2%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Alianza Atlético or Deportivo Garcilaso at HT	49.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético or draw (1UP)	71.2%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (1UP)	57.7%	63.0%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético or draw in 2nd half	74.6%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw in 2nd half	66.9%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Alianza Atlético or Deportivo Garcilaso in 2nd half	58.6%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	71.3%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Neither half drawn	28.7%	29.8%	—	—	3.35

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (DNB)	59.5%	58.1%	66.3%	0.88×	1.72
Deportivo Garcilaso (DNB)	40.5%	41.9%	33.7%	1.24×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to score first	49.5%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Deportivo Garcilaso to score first	38.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	12.2%	9.8%	—	—	10.22

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	59.7%	55.0%	46.2%	1.19×	1.82
Both teams to score	40.3%	45.0%	53.8%	0.84×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	53.2%	47.3%	37.7%	1.25×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	27.5%	33.3%	42.8%	0.78×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	6.5%	8.3%	8.7%	0.95×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	92.6%	89.0%	85.7%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	7.4%	11.0%	14.3%	0.77×	9.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.0%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.0%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	70.6%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both score 2nd half only	17.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Both score 1st half only	9.4%	6.8%	—	—	14.63
Both score in both halves	2.4%	4.8%	—	—	20.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.2%	85.1%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	11.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.71

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	59.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	40.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.1%	47.2%	44.2%	1.07×	2.12
0-1 goals	39.5%	35.0%	27.5%	1.27×	2.85
4-6 goals	14.9%	17.0%	26.8%	0.63×	5.89
7+ goals	0.5%	1.8%	1.8%	1.01×	54.51

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso to score exactly 0	40.6%	37.3%	34.1%	1.09×	2.68
Deportivo Garcilaso to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	37.7%	0.95×	2.78
Deportivo Garcilaso to score exactly 2	16.5%	19.5%	20.7%	0.95×	5.12
Deportivo Garcilaso to score 3+	6.3%	8.5%	8.0%	1.07×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.5%	33.0%	1.08×	2.81
Alianza Atlético to score exactly 0	31.3%	32.6%	19.9%	1.63×	3.07
Alianza Atlético to score exactly 2	21.1%	23.3%	25.0%	0.93×	4.29
Alianza Atlético to score 3+	11.2%	14.3%	22.5%	0.64×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	50.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Alianza Atlético leading at HT	29.8%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
Deportivo Garcilaso leading at HT	20.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético -1: 2	57.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Alianza Atlético -1: X	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Alianza Atlético -1: 1	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (0:1)	57.7%	55.8%	50.2%	1.11×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	24.5%	24.2%	25.4%	0.96×	4.13
Alianza Atlético (0:1)	17.8%	17.8%	24.6%	0.72×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (0:2)	82.2%	83.0%	75.4%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.0%	11.0%	13.4%	0.82×	9.10
Alianza Atlético (0:2)	5.8%	7.7%	11.4%	0.67×	13.07

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (0:3)	94.2%	92.7%	88.6%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.3%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	41.95
Alianza Atlético (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	4.0%	0.60×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso (0:4)	98.5%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.5%	0.48×	81.77
Alianza Atlético (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	81.87

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (1:0)	71.2%	72.4%	74.6%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	19.1%	17.1%	17.9%	0.95×	5.84
Deportivo Garcilaso (1:0)	9.7%	6.9%	7.6%	0.91×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (2:0)	90.3%	94.0%	92.4%	1.02×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	7.2%	6.4%	5.6%	1.14×	15.66
Deportivo Garcilaso (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	2.2%	1.05×	43.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Halves equal	28.9%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to concede	59.4%	60.7%	65.9%	0.92×	1.65
Alianza Atlético clean sheet	40.6%	39.3%	34.1%	1.15×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético clean sheet in 1st half	69.7%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Alianza Atlético to concede in 1st half	30.3%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético clean sheet in 2nd half	58.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Alianza Atlético to concede in 2nd half	41.8%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético over 2.5 corners	80.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Alianza Atlético under 6.5 corners	74.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Alianza Atlético over 3.5 corners	66.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Alianza Atlético under 5.5 corners	62.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Alianza Atlético over 4.5 corners	51.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Alianza Atlético under 4.5 corners	48.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Alianza Atlético over 5.5 corners	37.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Alianza Atlético under 3.5 corners	33.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Alianza Atlético over 6.5 corners	25.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Alianza Atlético under 2.5 corners	19.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético under 3.5 goals	96.9%	96.4%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Alianza Atlético under 2.5 goals	88.8%	87.3%	77.5%	1.13×	1.15
Alianza Atlético over 0.5 goals	68.7%	67.9%	80.1%	0.85×	1.47
Alianza Atlético under 1.5 goals	67.6%	67.9%	52.7%	1.29×	1.47
Alianza Atlético over 1.5 goals	32.4%	32.1%	47.3%	0.68×	3.12
Alianza Atlético under 0.5 goals	31.3%	32.1%	19.9%	1.61×	3.12
Alianza Atlético over 2.5 goals	11.2%	12.7%	22.5%	0.57×	7.86
Alianza Atlético over 3.5 goals	3.1%	3.6%	7.6%	0.48×	27.55

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético under 1.5 in 1st half	91.0%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Alianza Atlético under 0.5 in 1st half	60.7%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Alianza Atlético over 0.5 in 1st half	39.3%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Alianza Atlético over 1.5 in 1st half	9.0%	5.4%	—	—	18.66

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético scores equally in both	42.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Alianza Atlético scores more in 2nd half	33.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Alianza Atlético scores more in 1st half	23.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.0%	51.4%	49.6%	1.04×	1.95
Deportivo Garcilaso (home no bet)	50.0%	48.6%	50.4%	0.97×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético even goals	54.9%	50.8%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Alianza Atlético odd goals	45.1%	49.2%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	42.2%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
HT 1-0	21.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	15.3%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	7.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
HT 2-0	5.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
Any other HT score	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-1	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.28
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético at HT / Alianza Atlético at FT	23.8%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Draw at HT / Alianza Atlético at FT	16.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Deportivo Garcilaso at HT / Deportivo Garcilaso at FT	14.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Deportivo Garcilaso at FT	13.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Alianza Atlético at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Deportivo Garcilaso at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Deportivo Garcilaso at HT / Alianza Atlético at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.96
Alianza Atlético at HT / Deportivo Garcilaso at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.97

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to score last	49.4%	46.4%	—	—	2.15
Deportivo Garcilaso to score last	38.4%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	12.2%	9.2%	—	—	10.89

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	87.8%	91.3%	—	—	1.10
Alianza Atlético to lead by 1 at any time	54.6%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Deportivo Garcilaso to lead by 1 at any time	42.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	35.1%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Alianza Atlético to lead by 2 at any time	22.0%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Deportivo Garcilaso to lead by 2 at any time	13.2%	10.6%	—	—	9.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	10.6%	—	—	9.47
Alianza Atlético to lead by 3 at any time	6.9%	6.6%	—	—	15.06
Deportivo Garcilaso to lead by 3 at any time	3.2%	1.6%	—	—	62.09

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético most corners	62.8%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Deportivo Garcilaso most corners	26.1%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.9%	87.4%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	82.0%	83.4%	78.1%	1.07×	1.20
1-3 goals	72.4%	72.3%	63.9%	1.13×	1.38
2-6 goals	60.0%	63.3%	70.8%	0.89×	1.58
2-5 goals	58.7%	59.1%	67.4%	0.88×	1.69
2-4 goals	54.7%	53.2%	58.3%	0.91×	1.88
1-2 goals	53.8%	53.2%	41.1%	1.29×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.1%	48.4%	44.2%	1.10×	2.07
3-6 goals	33.5%	35.2%	49.6%	0.71×	2.84
3-5 goals	32.1%	35.2%	46.2%	0.76×	2.84
3-4 goals	28.2%	30.2%	37.1%	0.81×	3.31
4-6 goals	14.9%	14.8%	26.8%	0.55×	6.75
4-5 goals	13.5%	14.8%	23.4%	0.63×	6.75
5-6 goals	5.3%	8.9%	12.7%	0.70×	11.28
7+ goals	0.5%	2.5%	1.8%	1.41×	39.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético never behind	45.4%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Deportivo Garcilaso never behind	33.3%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.1%	95.4%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	85.7%	1.08×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	92.2%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	84.6%	82.3%	71.6%	1.15×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	66.0%	66.3%	48.7%	1.36×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	60.5%	61.7%	72.5%	0.85×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	39.5%	38.3%	27.5%	1.39×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	34.0%	33.7%	51.3%	0.66×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	15.4%	17.7%	28.4%	0.62×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	7.8%	1.59×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	14.3%	0.54×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	1.9%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.5%	97.2%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.0%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	93.5%	92.4%	83.3%	1.11×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	81.0%	81.1%	63.1%	1.28×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	53.7%	51.9%	34.9%	1.48×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	46.3%	48.1%	65.1%	0.74×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	19.0%	18.9%	36.9%	0.51×	5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	6.5%	7.6%	16.7%	0.45×	13.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.0%	2.8%	5.8%	0.49×	35.62
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.5%	2.8%	1.9%	1.49×	35.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.4%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	78.8%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	57.8%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	42.2%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
Over 1.5 in 1st half	21.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.16

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.9%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.2%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.3%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.7%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.9%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.1%	14.6%	—	—	6.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso not to score in both halves	87.4%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Alianza Atlético not to score in both halves	81.0%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Alianza Atlético to score in both halves	19.0%	15.8%	—	—	6.35
Deportivo Garcilaso to score in both halves	12.6%	14.4%	—	—	6.95

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	40.3%	46.6%	53.8%	0.87×	2.15
Only Alianza Atlético scores	28.4%	26.1%	26.4%	0.99×	3.84
Only Deportivo Garcilaso scores	19.1%	16.1%	12.3%	1.30×	6.23
Neither team scores	12.2%	11.0%	7.8%	1.42×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	27.3%	24.9%	19.9%	1.25×	4.02
Exactly 2 goals	26.5%	24.9%	21.4%	1.16×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	18.6%	17.5%	23.0%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	12.2%	12.1%	7.8%	1.56×	8.26
Exactly 4 goals	9.6%	7.6%	14.3%	0.53×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	4.0%	4.5%	9.2%	0.48×	22.34
6 or more goals	1.9%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	42.2%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	15.6%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
3+ goals in 1st half	5.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.5%	39.6%	—	—	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	33.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
No goals in 2nd half	29.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso not to win both halves	95.0%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Alianza Atlético not to win both halves	90.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Alianza Atlético to win both halves	9.8%	5.9%	—	—	16.95
Deportivo Garcilaso to win both halves	5.0%	5.8%	—	—	17.29

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso to win neither half	59.6%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Alianza Atlético to win either half	53.2%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Alianza Atlético to win neither half	46.8%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Deportivo Garcilaso to win either half	40.4%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Garcilaso not to win to nil	80.9%	83.1%	87.7%	0.95×	1.20
Alianza Atlético not to win to nil	71.6%	75.3%	73.6%	1.02×	1.33
Alianza Atlético to win to nil	28.4%	24.7%	26.4%	0.93×	4.05
Deportivo Garcilaso to win to nil	19.1%	16.9%	12.3%	1.37×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.9%	27.9%	25.0%	1.12×	3.59
Alianza Atlético by 1	24.5%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Deportivo Garcilaso by 1	19.1%	17.0%	17.9%	0.95×	5.87
Alianza Atlético by 2	12.0%	11.8%	13.4%	0.88×	8.51
Deportivo Garcilaso by 2	7.2%	7.2%	5.6%	1.28×	13.91
Alianza Atlético by 3+	5.8%	7.2%	11.4%	0.63×	13.92
Deportivo Garcilaso by 3+	2.5%	2.7%	2.2%	1.25×	36.89