Alianza Atlético v Juan Pablo II — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 October 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627
PER-Liga 1
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 10.3%
- 1-0 10.2%
- 2-1 9.9%
- 1-1 9.5%
- 3-0 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 58.1% | Under 2.5 | 41.9% |
| BTTS yes | 53.7% | BTTS no | 46.3% |
| Alianza Atlético 1+ | 87.2% | Alianza Atlético 2+ | 60.9% |
| Juan Pablo II 1+ | 61.8% | Juan Pablo II 2+ | 25.0% |
Expected goals 2.06 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Alianza Atlético carry the stronger rating, 1562 Elo against 1425.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Alianza Atlético have an estimated 59.2% win probability, against 22.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Juan Pablo II. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.06 for Alianza Atlético and 0.96 for Juan Pablo II.
Why Alianza Atlético
Alianza Atlético carry the stronger rating, 1562 Elo against 1425. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Juan Pablo II can win
Nothing in the data singles out Juan Pablo II.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Alianza Atlético, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Juan Pablo II, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Alianza Atlético: 39% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Juan Pablo II: 45% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Alianza Atlético are the model's most likely outcome at 59.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.3%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.29–0.92 | 2-0 11% | 62% | 54% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.