Alianza Atlético v Melgar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 November 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Alianza Atlético

20:00 UTC

Melgar

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 465h before kick-off

Alianza Atlético win

43.2%

model 42.8%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.2%

Melgar win

29.5%

model 32.0%

432729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.9%
1-0 11.0%
0-1 9.3%
2-1 8.8%
2-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.3%	Under 2.5	51.7%
BTTS yes	52.2%	BTTS no	47.8%
Alianza Atlético 1+	75.8%	Alianza Atlético 2+	41.4%
Melgar 1+	69.5%	Melgar 2+	33.3%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.19. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Even number of goals

Odd/Even · usually 47%

50.3% fair odds 1.99

moderate signal · 2988 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Melgar not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 88%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Alianza Atlético have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.5% for Melgar and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Alianza Atlético and 1.19 for Melgar.

Why Alianza Atlético

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.42 to 1.19. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Melgar can win

Melgar carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1562.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Alianza Atlético, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Melgar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Alianza Atlético: 39% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Melgar: 53% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Alianza Atlético are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	432532	1.42–1.19	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	452630	1.39–1.08	1-0 12%	45%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to win	44.6%	43.0%	49.8%	0.86×	2.33
Melgar to win	29.6%	27.9%	25.4%	1.10×	3.58
Draw	25.8%	27.9%	25.0%	1.12×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético & not both score	26.1%	25.2%	26.4%	0.95×	3.97
Alianza Atlético & both teams score	18.5%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Melgar & not both score	16.9%	18.0%	12.3%	1.46×	5.57
Melgar & both teams score	12.7%	13.3%	13.2%	1.00×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.9%	8.3%	7.8%	1.07×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético & under 3.5	33.1%	30.8%	33.7%	0.91×	3.25
Alianza Atlético & over 1.5	32.4%	30.8%	38.0%	0.81×	3.25
Alianza Atlético & over 2.5	24.2%	21.6%	30.8%	0.70×	4.63
Melgar & under 3.5	23.1%	21.6%	19.4%	1.11×	4.63
Alianza Atlético & under 2.5	20.5%	21.6%	19.2%	1.13×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.1%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Melgar & over 1.5	20.0%	18.0%	17.4%	1.04×	5.55
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	17.4%	1.04×	5.55
Melgar & over 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	14.5%	1.24×	5.56
Melgar & under 2.5	14.5%	12.8%	11.1%	1.16×	7.79
Alianza Atlético & over 3.5	11.5%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Alianza Atlético & under 1.5	12.3%	12.8%	12.0%	1.07×	7.79
Melgar & under 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	8.2%	0.97×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	7.8%	1.02×	12.63
Melgar & over 3.5	6.5%	7.9%	6.2%	1.29×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.6%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.6%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (1UP)	58.9%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Melgar (1UP)	45.6%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (2UP)	44.6%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Melgar (2UP)	29.6%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.1%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Alianza Atlético to win 2nd half	35.8%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Melgar to win 2nd half	27.1%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.2%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Melgar under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Melgar over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.6%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Melgar over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.8%	12.9%	—	—	7.72

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.1%	82.3%	—	—	1.21
Alianza Atlético over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Alianza Atlético under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Alianza Atlético over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.9%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (+2.5)	92.2%	92.1%	88.6%	1.04×	1.09
Melgar (+1.5)	79.0%	78.5%	75.4%	1.04×	1.27
Alianza Atlético (+0.5)	70.4%	73.6%	74.6%	0.99×	1.36
Melgar (+0.5)	55.4%	57.0%	50.2%	1.14×	1.75
Alianza Atlético (-0.5)	44.6%	43.0%	49.8%	0.86×	2.33
Melgar (-0.5)	29.6%	26.4%	25.4%	1.04×	3.79
Alianza Atlético (-1.5)	21.0%	21.5%	24.6%	0.87×	4.65
Alianza Atlético (-2.5)	7.8%	7.9%	11.4%	0.69×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to concede	75.2%	78.7%	80.1%	0.98×	1.27
Melgar clean sheet	24.8%	21.3%	19.9%	1.07×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar clean sheet in 1st half	54.9%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Melgar to concede in 1st half	45.1%	49.0%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to concede in 2nd half	54.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Melgar clean sheet in 2nd half	45.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar over 2.5 corners	78.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Melgar under 6.5 corners	77.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Melgar under 5.5 corners	66.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Melgar over 3.5 corners	63.1%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Melgar under 4.5 corners	52.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Melgar over 4.5 corners	47.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Melgar under 3.5 corners	36.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Melgar over 5.5 corners	33.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Melgar over 6.5 corners	22.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Melgar under 2.5 corners	21.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 3.5 goals	97.6%	97.5%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Melgar under 2.5 goals	90.5%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Melgar under 1.5 goals	70.7%	71.8%	71.6%	1.00×	1.39
Melgar over 0.5 goals	66.0%	68.0%	65.9%	1.03×	1.47
Melgar under 0.5 goals	34.0%	32.0%	34.1%	0.94×	3.12
Melgar over 1.5 goals	29.3%	28.2%	28.4%	0.99×	3.55
Melgar over 2.5 goals	9.5%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	13.05
Melgar over 3.5 goals	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.85

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 1.5 in 1st half	93.0%	93.9%	—	—	1.06
Melgar under 0.5 in 1st half	65.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Melgar over 0.5 in 1st half	35.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Melgar over 1.5 in 1st half	7.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.51

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar scores equally in both	44.2%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Melgar scores more in 2nd half	35.0%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Melgar scores more in 1st half	20.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (away no bet)	63.4%	61.9%	66.6%	0.93×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	36.6%	38.1%	33.4%	1.14×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar even goals	55.8%	56.9%	56.9%	1.00×	1.76
Melgar odd goals	44.2%	43.1%	43.1%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.4%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.30

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.9%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.1%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.7%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Alianza Atlético to score 2+ in a row	33.3%	28.9%	—	—	3.45
Melgar to score 2+ in a row	22.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.5%	16.1%	—	—	6.20
Alianza Atlético to score 3+ in a row	11.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Melgar to score 3+ in a row	5.6%	5.5%	—	—	18.32

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar corners (+3.5)	88.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Melgar corners (+2.5)	81.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Alianza Atlético corners (+3.5)	80.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Melgar corners (+1.5)	73.3%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Alianza Atlético corners (+2.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Alianza Atlético corners (+1.5)	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Melgar corners (-1.5)	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Melgar corners (-2.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Alianza Atlético corners (-1.5)	26.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Melgar corners (-3.5)	20.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Alianza Atlético corners (-2.5)	18.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Alianza Atlético corners (-3.5)	11.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	51.5%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	20.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.8%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	79.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	71.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	28.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	20.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	14.2%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.3%	11.5%	12.0%	0.96×	8.71
1-1	12.2%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.71
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.51
0-1	9.6%	7.4%	8.2%	0.91×	13.51
1-2	6.8%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
2-0	8.2%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
0-0	7.9%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.51
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.29
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.29
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.16×	58.32
1-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
2-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
3-0	3.8%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.30
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.30
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.31
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.37×	58.32
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.73×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.47×	58.32
Any other score	1.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.31
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (2nd half DNB)	57.0%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Melgar (2nd half DNB)	43.0%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético leading at HT (DNB)	60.2%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Melgar leading at HT (DNB)	39.8%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético or Melgar (12)	74.2%	72.1%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Alianza Atlético or draw (1X)	70.4%	72.1%	74.6%	0.97×	1.39
Melgar or draw (X2)	55.4%	57.0%	50.2%	1.14×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético or draw at HT	78.3%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Melgar or draw at HT	67.1%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Alianza Atlético or Melgar at HT	54.6%	48.7%	—	—	2.05

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético or draw (1UP)	70.4%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Melgar or draw (1UP)	55.4%	62.8%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético or draw in 2nd half	72.9%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Melgar or draw in 2nd half	64.2%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Alianza Atlético or Melgar in 2nd half	62.9%	63.5%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.2%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.8%	31.9%	—	—	3.13

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (DNB)	60.1%	62.6%	66.3%	0.94×	1.60
Melgar (DNB)	39.9%	37.4%	33.7%	1.11×	2.67

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to score first	51.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Melgar to score first	40.2%	41.6%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.9%	51.3%	46.2%	1.11×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.1%	48.7%	53.8%	0.91×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.9%	41.6%	37.7%	1.10×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	36.9%	38.4%	42.8%	0.90×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.0%	8.3%	8.7%	0.95×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.1%	85.6%	85.7%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.9%	14.4%	14.3%	1.00×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.1%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.9%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.8%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	4.1%	4.9%	—	—	20.31

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.3%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.7%	16.5%	—	—	6.05

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	48.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.5%	47.2%	44.2%	1.07×	2.12
0-1 goals	29.8%	26.6%	27.5%	0.97×	3.76
4-6 goals	22.3%	22.9%	26.8%	0.86×	4.36
7+ goals	1.3%	1.8%	1.8%	1.01×	54.43

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	37.7%	0.95×	2.78
Melgar to score exactly 0	34.0%	33.8%	34.1%	0.99×	2.96
Melgar to score exactly 2	19.8%	19.5%	20.7%	0.95×	5.12
Melgar to score 3+	9.5%	8.6%	8.0%	1.07×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to score exactly 1	34.6%	32.6%	33.0%	0.99×	3.07
Alianza Atlético to score exactly 0	24.8%	23.3%	19.9%	1.17×	4.29
Alianza Atlético to score exactly 2	24.1%	23.3%	25.0%	0.93×	4.29
Alianza Atlético to score 3+	16.5%	18.8%	22.5%	0.84×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.4%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Alianza Atlético leading at HT	32.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Melgar leading at HT	21.7%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético -1: 2	55.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Alianza Atlético -1: X	23.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Alianza Atlético -1: 1	21.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:1)	55.4%	55.8%	50.2%	1.11×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	23.6%	24.2%	25.4%	0.96×	4.13
Alianza Atlético (0:1)	21.0%	24.2%	24.6%	0.98×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:2)	79.0%	79.4%	75.4%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.2%	11.0%	13.4%	0.82×	9.10
Alianza Atlético (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	11.4%	0.67×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:3)	92.2%	92.7%	88.6%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.5%	5.8%	7.6%	0.76×	17.27
Alianza Atlético (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	4.0%	0.60×	42.04

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:4)	97.6%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	2.5%	0.48×	81.71
Alianza Atlético (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	81.84

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (1:0)	70.4%	72.4%	74.6%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	18.4%	17.1%	17.9%	0.95×	5.85
Melgar (1:0)	11.2%	12.7%	7.6%	1.67×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético (2:0)	88.8%	88.5%	92.4%	0.96×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.9%	6.4%	5.6%	1.14×	15.65
Melgar (2:0)	3.3%	2.3%	2.2%	1.05×	43.72

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.9%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	25.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to concede	66.0%	66.7%	65.9%	1.01×	1.50
Alianza Atlético clean sheet	34.0%	33.3%	34.1%	0.98×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético clean sheet in 1st half	65.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Alianza Atlético to concede in 1st half	35.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético clean sheet in 2nd half	52.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Alianza Atlético to concede in 2nd half	47.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético under 6.5 corners	85.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Alianza Atlético under 5.5 corners	75.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Alianza Atlético over 2.5 corners	71.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Alianza Atlético under 4.5 corners	62.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Alianza Atlético over 3.5 corners	53.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Alianza Atlético under 3.5 corners	46.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Alianza Atlético over 4.5 corners	37.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Alianza Atlético under 2.5 corners	28.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Alianza Atlético over 5.5 corners	24.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Alianza Atlético over 6.5 corners	14.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético under 3.5 goals	94.7%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Alianza Atlético under 2.5 goals	83.5%	82.2%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
Alianza Atlético over 0.5 goals	75.2%	77.7%	80.1%	0.97×	1.29
Alianza Atlético under 1.5 goals	59.4%	58.7%	52.7%	1.11×	1.71
Alianza Atlético over 1.5 goals	40.6%	41.3%	47.3%	0.87×	2.42
Alianza Atlético under 0.5 goals	24.8%	22.3%	19.9%	1.12×	4.49
Alianza Atlético over 2.5 goals	16.5%	17.8%	22.5%	0.79×	5.62
Alianza Atlético over 3.5 goals	5.3%	7.8%	7.6%	1.02×	12.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético under 1.5 in 1st half	87.8%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Alianza Atlético under 0.5 in 1st half	54.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Alianza Atlético over 0.5 in 1st half	45.1%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Alianza Atlético over 1.5 in 1st half	12.2%	9.8%	—	—	10.20

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético scores equally in both	38.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Alianza Atlético scores more in 2nd half	36.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Alianza Atlético scores more in 1st half	25.1%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (home no bet)	53.5%	51.5%	50.4%	1.02×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	46.5%	48.5%	49.6%	0.98×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético even goals	53.1%	50.8%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Alianza Atlético odd goals	46.9%	49.2%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
HT 1-0	21.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	15.5%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	9.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
HT 2-0	6.4%	6.9%	—	—	14.56
HT 0-2	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético at HT / Alianza Atlético at FT	26.0%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Draw at HT / Alianza Atlético at FT	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Melgar at HT / Melgar at FT	15.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Melgar at FT	12.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Alianza Atlético at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.55
Melgar at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Melgar at HT / Alianza Atlético at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.94
Alianza Atlético at HT / Melgar at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to score last	51.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Melgar to score last	40.2%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
No goal scored	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Alianza Atlético to lead by 1 at any time	58.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Melgar to lead by 1 at any time	45.6%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.3%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Alianza Atlético to lead by 2 at any time	26.6%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Melgar to lead by 2 at any time	15.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.40
Alianza Atlético to lead by 3 at any time	9.6%	6.7%	—	—	14.94
Melgar to lead by 3 at any time	4.4%	1.6%	—	—	60.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar most corners	51.1%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Alianza Atlético most corners	37.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.0%	87.4%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.6%	83.4%	78.1%	1.07×	1.20
2-6 goals	68.8%	68.8%	70.8%	0.97×	1.45
1-3 goals	68.4%	68.8%	63.9%	1.08×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.2%	68.8%	67.4%	1.02×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.7%	59.1%	58.3%	1.01×	1.69
1-2 goals	47.2%	48.4%	41.1%	1.18×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.5%	48.4%	44.2%	1.10×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.5%	43.6%	49.6%	0.88×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.9%	43.6%	46.2%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.4%	35.2%	37.1%	0.95×	2.84
4-6 goals	22.3%	24.5%	26.8%	0.91×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.6%	18.8%	23.4%	0.81×	5.31
5-6 goals	9.2%	8.9%	12.7%	0.70×	11.25
7+ goals	1.3%	2.6%	1.8%	1.41×	39.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético never behind	46.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Melgar never behind	33.2%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.3%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.7%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.0%	95.4%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	92.2%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.5%	87.6%	85.7%	1.02×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.4%	77.3%	71.6%	1.08×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.2%	72.5%	72.5%	1.00×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.1%	58.6%	48.7%	1.20×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	44.9%	41.4%	51.3%	0.81×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.8%	27.5%	27.5%	1.00×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	23.6%	22.7%	28.4%	0.80×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	10.5%	12.4%	14.3%	0.87×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	7.8%	0.99×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	4.0%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.81

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.6%	97.2%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.7%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.9%	86.7%	83.3%	1.04×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.0%	72.3%	63.1%	1.15×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.1%	61.9%	65.1%	0.95×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.9%	38.1%	34.9%	1.09×	2.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.0%	27.7%	36.9%	0.75×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.1%	13.3%	16.7%	0.80×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.3%	2.8%	5.8%	0.49×	35.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.4%	2.8%	1.9%	1.50×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.4%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.6%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.4%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.6%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.4%	28.6%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.6%	7.3%	—	—	13.76

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.4%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.0%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.0%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	20.5%	—	—	4.87
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.6%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar not to score in both halves	83.3%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Alianza Atlético not to score in both halves	75.3%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Alianza Atlético to score in both halves	24.7%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Melgar to score in both halves	16.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.1%	50.7%	53.8%	0.94×	1.97
Only Alianza Atlético scores	26.1%	26.0%	26.4%	0.98×	3.84
Only Melgar scores	16.9%	16.0%	12.3%	1.30×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.9%	7.1%	7.8%	0.92×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	24.9%	21.4%	1.16×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	21.9%	22.6%	19.9%	1.13×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	13.1%	12.1%	14.3%	0.85×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	7.9%	7.6%	7.8%	0.98×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.5%	7.6%	9.2%	0.82×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.0%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.34

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.9%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	35.6%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	18.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.34
3+ goals in 1st half	8.6%	7.3%	—	—	13.76

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.0%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	34.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
No goals in 2nd half	23.5%	23.0%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar not to win both halves	94.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Alianza Atlético not to win both halves	88.3%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Alianza Atlético to win both halves	11.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Melgar to win both halves	5.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.24

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alianza Atlético to win either half	57.0%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
Melgar to win neither half	57.0%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
Alianza Atlético to win neither half	43.0%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Melgar to win either half	43.0%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar not to win to nil	83.1%	83.1%	87.7%	0.95×	1.20
Alianza Atlético not to win to nil	73.9%	75.3%	73.6%	1.02×	1.33
Alianza Atlético to win to nil	26.1%	24.7%	26.4%	0.93×	4.05
Melgar to win to nil	16.9%	16.9%	12.3%	1.37×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.8%	27.9%	25.0%	1.11×	3.59
Alianza Atlético by 1	23.6%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Melgar by 1	18.4%	17.0%	17.9%	0.95×	5.87
Alianza Atlético by 2	13.2%	11.8%	13.4%	0.88×	8.50
Melgar by 2	7.9%	7.2%	5.6%	1.28×	13.91
Alianza Atlético by 3+	7.8%	7.2%	11.4%	0.63×	13.91
Melgar by 3+	3.3%	2.7%	2.2%	1.25×	36.87