Alianza FC v Internacional de Bogotá — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627
COL-Primera A
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.3%
- 1-0 11.0%
- 0-0 11.0%
- 0-1 9.2%
- 2-1 8.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 41.2% | Under 2.5 | 58.8% |
| BTTS yes | 48.3% | BTTS no | 51.7% |
| Alianza FC 1+ | 71.6% | Alianza FC 2+ | 35.8% |
| Internacional de Bogotá 1+ | 65.7% | Internacional de Bogotá 2+ | 29.0% |
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Alianza FC.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Alianza FC have an estimated 37.3% win probability, against 31.4% for the draw and 31.4% for Internacional de Bogotá. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.26 for Alianza FC and 1.07 for Internacional de Bogotá.
Why Alianza FC
Nothing in the data singles out Alianza FC.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 31.4%. A combined 2.33 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.26 to 1.07. Draws run at 29% in this competition.
Why Internacional de Bogotá can win
Internacional de Bogotá carry the stronger rating, 1417 Elo against 1384.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Alianza FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Internacional de Bogotá, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Alianza FC: 45% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Internacional de Bogotá: 45% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Alianza FC are the model's most likely outcome at 37.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.3%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.21–1.11 | 1-1 14% | 41% | 48% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.