Almería v Leganes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 06:01 UTC

Almería

18:00 UTC

Leganes

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 860h before kick-off

Almería win

58.4%

model 59.3%

Draw

22.9%

model 21.4%

Leganes win

18.7%

model 19.3%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (2,277 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 10.8%
1-1 10.1%
2-0 10.1%
2-1 9.9%
3-0 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.3%	Under 2.5	44.7%
BTTS yes	53.1%	BTTS no	46.9%
Almería 1+	85.2%	Almería 2+	57.0%
Leganes 1+	62.6%	Leganes 2+	25.8%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

54/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Almería carry the stronger rating, 1537 Elo against 1429.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Almería have an estimated 58.4% win probability, against 22.9% for the draw and 18.7% for Leganes. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.91 for Almería and 0.98 for Leganes.

Why Almería

Almería carry the stronger rating, 1537 Elo against 1429.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.9%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Leganes can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Leganes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Raba (0.39), Miguel De la Fuente (0.20), Diego García (0.19).

Availability

No lineup on record for Almería, so availability is unknown. 2 of Leganes's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Almería: 57% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Leganes: 41% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Almería's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Almería are the model's most likely outcome at 58.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 10.8%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDLDDDWLWW last 10 scored 13 from 13.3 xG conceded 13 from 15.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	602218	1.85–0.89	1-0 12%	52%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to win	60.1%	57.9%	45.5%	1.27×	1.73
Draw	21.9%	24.5%	26.6%	0.92×	4.08
Leganes to win	18.0%	19.4%	28.0%	0.69×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería & not both score	34.8%	29.7%	23.6%	1.26×	3.37
Almería & both teams score	25.3%	25.1%	22.0%	1.14×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	15.7%	17.9%	17.5%	1.02×	5.58
Leganes & not both score	9.6%	8.4%	13.4%	0.62×	11.93
Leganes & both teams score	8.4%	8.4%	14.7%	0.57×	11.93
Draw & not both score	6.2%	8.4%	9.1%	0.92×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería & over 1.5	47.9%	45.1%	32.6%	1.39×	2.22
Almería & under 3.5	39.8%	34.9%	32.2%	1.08×	2.87
Almería & over 2.5	36.9%	34.8%	26.3%	1.33×	2.87
Almería & under 2.5	23.2%	21.6%	19.3%	1.12×	4.63
Almería & over 3.5	20.3%	21.6%	13.3%	1.62×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.6%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.7%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Leganes & under 3.5	14.1%	12.9%	19.6%	0.66×	7.76
Almería & under 1.5	12.2%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.76
Leganes & over 1.5	12.0%	12.9%	19.4%	0.66×	7.76
Leganes & over 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	16.6%	0.48×	12.65
Leganes & under 2.5	8.6%	7.9%	11.6%	0.68×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.65
Leganes & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	8.7%	0.91×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.65
Leganes & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	8.5%	0.56×	20.86

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (1UP)	71.8%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Leganes (1UP)	34.8%	33.1%	—	—	3.02

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (2UP)	60.1%	67.4%	—	—	1.49
Leganes (2UP)	18.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to win 2nd half	47.9%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	33.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Leganes to win 2nd half	18.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.23

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (+2.5)	83.5%	82.5%	92.3%	0.89×	1.21
Almería (+0.5)	82.0%	82.5%	72.0%	1.15×	1.21
Leganes (+1.5)	65.0%	68.7%	80.5%	0.85×	1.46
Almería (-0.5)	60.1%	62.9%	45.5%	1.38×	1.59
Leganes (+0.5)	39.9%	37.1%	54.5%	0.68×	2.70
Almería (-1.5)	35.0%	31.3%	19.5%	1.60×	3.19
Leganes (-0.5)	18.0%	17.5%	28.0%	0.63×	5.70
Almería (-2.5)	16.5%	17.5%	7.7%	2.29×	5.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to concede	84.2%	81.3%	77.5%	1.05×	1.23
Leganes clean sheet	15.8%	18.7%	22.5%	0.83×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes clean sheet in 1st half	45.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Leganes to concede in 1st half	54.8%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 6.5 corners	90.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Leganes under 5.5 corners	82.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Leganes under 4.5 corners	69.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Leganes over 2.5 corners	65.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Leganes under 3.5 corners	53.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Leganes over 3.5 corners	46.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Leganes under 2.5 corners	34.2%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Leganes over 4.5 corners	30.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Leganes over 5.5 corners	17.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Leganes over 6.5 corners	9.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.93

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.5%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Leganes under 2.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	89.2%	1.04×	1.08
Leganes under 1.5 goals	77.5%	76.2%	69.4%	1.10×	1.31
Leganes over 0.5 goals	59.0%	59.4%	67.3%	0.88×	1.68
Leganes under 0.5 goals	41.0%	40.6%	32.7%	1.24×	2.47
Leganes over 1.5 goals	22.5%	23.8%	30.6%	0.78×	4.21
Leganes over 2.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	10.8%	0.71×	13.02
Leganes over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.5%	3.0%	0.82×	40.11

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 1.5 in 1st half	95.0%	94.3%	—	—	1.06
Leganes under 0.5 in 1st half	70.0%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Leganes over 0.5 in 1st half	30.0%	31.3%	—	—	3.20
Leganes over 1.5 in 1st half	5.0%	5.7%	—	—	17.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (away no bet)	73.3%	68.5%	63.1%	1.08×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.7%	31.5%	36.9%	0.86×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes even goals	58.4%	56.9%	54.7%	1.04×	1.76
Leganes odd goals	41.6%	43.1%	45.3%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.0%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.0%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.9%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.1%	41.8%	—	—	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.3%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Almería to score 2+ in a row	48.1%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Almería to score 3+ in a row	21.0%	19.4%	—	—	5.14
Leganes to score 2+ in a row	15.3%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Leganes to score 3+ in a row	3.0%	2.6%	—	—	38.77

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería corners (+3.5)	95.7%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Almería corners (+2.5)	92.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Almería corners (+1.5)	87.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Almería corners (-1.5)	61.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Leganes corners (+3.5)	60.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Almería corners (-2.5)	50.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Leganes corners (+2.5)	49.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Almería corners (-3.5)	40.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Leganes corners (+1.5)	38.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Leganes corners (-1.5)	12.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Leganes corners (-2.5)	7.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Leganes corners (-3.5)	4.3%	4.2%	—	—	23.63

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	31.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	72.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.6%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	40.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	38.4%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	31.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	28.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.2%	11.4%	13.0%	0.88×	8.74
2-0	11.0%	11.4%	6.4%	1.79×	8.74
1-1	10.4%	11.4%	11.2%	1.02×	8.74
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.50
3-0	6.8%	7.4%	3.0%	2.43×	13.50
0-0	6.2%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
0-1	6.0%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
3-1	6.1%	7.4%	4.5%	1.64×	13.50
1-2	4.8%	1.7%	7.0%	0.24×	58.29
0-2	2.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.58×	58.30
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.32
1-3	1.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.29
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.32
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.30
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.16×	58.32
4-0	3.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.30
4-1	2.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.30
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.44×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.16×	58.32
Any other score	4.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.30

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería leading at HT (DNB)	73.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Leganes leading at HT (DNB)	26.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw (1X)	82.0%	80.6%	72.0%	1.12×	1.24
Almería or Leganes (12)	78.1%	75.5%	73.4%	1.03×	1.32
Leganes or draw (X2)	39.9%	42.1%	54.5%	0.77×	2.37

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw at HT	84.5%	84.6%	—	—	1.18
Almería or Leganes at HT	58.8%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Leganes or draw at HT	56.7%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw (1UP)	82.0%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Leganes or draw (1UP)	39.9%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw in 2nd half	81.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Almería or Leganes in 2nd half	66.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Leganes or draw in 2nd half	52.1%	54.5%	—	—	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.2%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	38.8%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (DNB)	77.0%	74.5%	61.9%	1.20×	1.34
Leganes (DNB)	23.1%	25.5%	38.1%	0.67×	3.92

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score first	63.2%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Leganes to score first	30.6%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.5%	51.3%	46.0%	1.12×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.5%	48.7%	54.0%	0.90×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.0%	38.5%	42.9%	0.90×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	38.0%	38.5%	39.8%	0.97×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	12.5%	12.3%	6.3%	1.96×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	10.4%	12.3%	11.2%	1.10×	8.12

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.6%	85.6%	85.6%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.4%	14.4%	14.4%	1.00×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.1%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.9%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.1%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	22.5%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	12.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	4.4%	5.0%	—	—	19.83

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.6%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.3%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.3%	41.4%	1.14×	2.12
4-6 goals	27.2%	26.6%	26.6%	1.00×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.4%	22.8%	30.7%	0.74×	4.38
7+ goals	2.2%	1.8%	1.6%	1.16×	54.67

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to score exactly 0	41.0%	37.1%	32.7%	1.14×	2.70
Leganes to score exactly 1	36.6%	36.0%	36.9%	0.98×	2.78
Leganes to score exactly 2	16.3%	19.6%	19.9%	0.99×	5.10
Leganes to score 3+	6.2%	8.5%	10.8%	0.79×	11.73

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score exactly 1	29.1%	26.5%	35.6%	0.74×	3.77
Almería to score 3+	28.2%	26.5%	17.1%	1.55×	3.77
Almería to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Almería to score exactly 0	15.8%	18.9%	22.5%	0.84×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería leading at HT	43.3%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Draw at HT	41.2%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
Leganes leading at HT	15.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.47

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería -1: 2	39.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Almería -1: 1	35.0%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Almería -1: X	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:1)	39.9%	37.4%	54.5%	0.69×	2.67
Almería (0:1)	35.0%	30.0%	19.5%	1.54×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	25.1%	27.0%	26.1%	1.04×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:2)	65.0%	72.1%	80.5%	0.90×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	18.5%	15.3%	12.0%	1.28×	6.55
Almería (0:2)	16.5%	15.3%	7.7%	1.99×	6.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:3)	83.5%	85.3%	92.3%	0.92×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.1%	9.9%	5.4%	1.86×	10.06
Almería (0:3)	6.4%	5.8%	2.4%	2.39×	17.30

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:4)	93.6%	94.7%	97.6%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	83.24
Almería (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	0.4%	2.85×	83.51

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (1:0)	82.0%	81.4%	72.0%	1.13×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	12.3%	12.8%	18.0%	0.71×	7.83
Leganes (1:0)	5.7%	6.9%	10.2%	0.68×	14.43

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (2:0)	94.3%	93.9%	89.8%	1.05×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	4.3%	2.3%	7.0%	0.33×	43.58
Leganes (2:0)	1.4%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	43.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to concede	59.0%	60.9%	67.3%	0.90×	1.64
Almería clean sheet	41.0%	39.1%	32.7%	1.20×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería clean sheet in 1st half	70.0%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Almería to concede in 1st half	30.0%	30.9%	—	—	3.23

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería over 2.5 corners	90.8%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Almería over 3.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Almería over 4.5 corners	69.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Almería under 6.5 corners	56.8%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Almería over 5.5 corners	56.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Almería under 5.5 corners	43.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Almería over 6.5 corners	43.2%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Almería under 4.5 corners	30.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Almería under 3.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Almería under 2.5 corners	9.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.32

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería under 3.5 goals	88.4%	87.2%	93.7%	0.93×	1.15
Almería over 0.5 goals	84.2%	82.1%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
Almería under 2.5 goals	71.8%	74.2%	82.9%	0.90×	1.35
Almería over 1.5 goals	55.1%	58.7%	42.0%	1.40×	1.70
Almería under 1.5 goals	44.9%	41.3%	58.0%	0.71×	2.42
Almería over 2.5 goals	28.2%	25.8%	17.1%	1.51×	3.88
Almería under 0.5 goals	15.8%	17.9%	22.5%	0.80×	5.59
Almería over 3.5 goals	11.6%	12.8%	6.3%	2.03×	7.82

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería under 1.5 in 1st half	81.1%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Almería under 0.5 in 1st half	45.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Almería over 0.5 in 1st half	54.8%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Almería over 1.5 in 1st half	18.9%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.9%	51.5%	48.7%	1.06×	1.94
Leganes (home no bet)	45.1%	48.5%	51.3%	0.94×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería even goals	51.2%	50.6%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Almería odd goals	48.8%	49.4%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	25.2%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
HT 0-1	11.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	10.0%	7.2%	—	—	13.98
HT 1-1	8.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.00
Any other HT score	5.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.44
HT 0-2	2.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.56
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.59
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.66

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería at HT / Almería at FT	37.6%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Draw at HT / Almería at FT	19.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Leganes at HT / Leganes at FT	8.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
Draw at HT / Leganes at FT	7.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Almería at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.75
Leganes at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Leganes at HT / Almería at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Almería at HT / Leganes at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score last	63.2%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Leganes to score last	30.6%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	6.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.40

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.8%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Almería to lead by 1 at any time	71.8%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.4%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Almería to lead by 2 at any time	41.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Leganes to lead by 1 at any time	34.8%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Almería to lead by 3 at any time	19.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Leganes to lead by 2 at any time	9.6%	6.7%	—	—	15.00
Leganes to lead by 3 at any time	2.1%	1.6%	—	—	62.26

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería most corners	71.9%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Leganes most corners	19.4%	19.1%	—	—	5.24
Corners level	8.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.90

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.8%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.5%	78.6%	78.0%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.4%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.6%	68.9%	64.3%	1.07×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.4%	63.4%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.4%	56.5%	1.12×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.4%	48.6%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.6%	41.4%	1.17×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.6%	48.6%	44.0%	1.10×	2.06
1-2 goals	42.2%	43.6%	41.9%	1.04×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.3%	39.2%	36.2%	1.08×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.2%	30.3%	26.6%	1.14×	3.30
4-5 goals	23.5%	24.5%	23.0%	1.07×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.1%	14.9%	11.5%	1.30×	6.73
7+ goals	2.2%	2.6%	1.6%	1.62×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería never behind	59.0%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Leganes never behind	21.9%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	48.4%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	51.6%	0.95×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.0%	92.2%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.8%	92.2%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.7%	87.6%	87.1%	1.01×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.6%	77.3%	69.3%	1.12×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	70.6%	72.5%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.6%	52.6%	49.1%	1.07×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	48.4%	47.4%	50.9%	0.93×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.4%	27.5%	28.0%	0.98×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.4%	22.7%	30.7%	0.74×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	14.3%	12.4%	12.9%	0.96×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	6.2%	7.8%	9.1%	0.85×	12.88
Over 5.5 goals	6.0%	7.8%	5.1%	1.51×	12.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.7%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.5%	92.4%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.2%	81.0%	84.8%	0.96×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.8%	67.5%	61.5%	1.10×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.2%	61.9%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.8%	38.1%	35.5%	1.07×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.2%	32.5%	38.5%	0.85×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.8%	19.0%	15.2%	1.25×	5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.5%	7.6%	5.6%	1.36×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.3%	2.8%	1.6%	1.71×	35.86

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.0%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.4%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.1%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.9%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.6%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.13

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.0%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to score in both halves	87.6%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Almería not to score in both halves	64.3%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Almería to score in both halves	35.7%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Leganes to score in both halves	12.4%	14.2%	—	—	7.05

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.5%	50.6%	54.0%	0.94×	1.98
Only Almería scores	34.8%	33.3%	23.6%	1.41×	3.00
Only Leganes scores	9.6%	7.2%	13.4%	0.54×	13.89
Neither team scores	6.2%	7.2%	9.1%	0.79×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.0%	22.6%	20.4%	1.11×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	21.1%	1.07×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.2%	17.4%	21.6%	0.81×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.2%	17.4%	15.2%	1.14×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	8.3%	7.6%	7.9%	0.97×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	6.2%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.09
6 or more goals	6.0%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.0%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	20.4%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to win both halves	97.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Almería not to win both halves	79.3%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Almería to win both halves	20.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Leganes to win both halves	2.9%	2.8%	—	—	36.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to win either half	70.5%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Leganes to win neither half	68.7%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Leganes to win either half	31.3%	31.9%	—	—	3.13
Almería to win neither half	29.5%	27.3%	—	—	3.67

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to win to nil	90.4%	92.0%	86.6%	1.06×	1.09
Almería not to win to nil	65.2%	69.7%	76.4%	0.91×	1.44
Almería to win to nil	34.8%	30.3%	23.6%	1.28×	3.30
Leganes to win to nil	9.6%	8.0%	13.4%	0.60×	12.46

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería by 1	25.1%	27.8%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59
Draw	21.9%	24.2%	26.6%	0.91×	4.14
Almería by 2	18.5%	16.9%	12.0%	1.41×	5.91
Almería by 3+	16.5%	16.9%	7.7%	2.21×	5.91
Leganes by 1	12.3%	11.8%	18.0%	0.66×	8.49
Leganes by 2	4.3%	2.7%	7.0%	0.39×	36.62
Leganes by 3+	1.4%	2.7%	3.3%	0.84×	36.71