Almería v Real Valladolid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Almería

20:00 UTC

Real Valladolid

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 1,329h before kick-off

Almería win

57.9%

model 59.4%

Draw

23.0%

model 21.2%

Real Valladolid win

19.1%

model 19.4%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 10.4%
1-1 10.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-0 9.8%
3-1 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.7%	Under 2.5	43.3%
BTTS yes	54.3%	BTTS no	45.7%
Almería 1+	85.7%	Almería 2+	57.9%
Real Valladolid 1+	63.6%	Real Valladolid 2+	26.8%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

55/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

Almería over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 42%

56.1% fair odds 1.78

strong signal · 925 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Almería or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Almería carry the stronger rating, 1537 Elo against 1342.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Almería have an estimated 57.9% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 19.1% for Real Valladolid. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.95 for Almería and 1.01 for Real Valladolid.

Why Almería

Almería carry the stronger rating, 1537 Elo against 1342.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Real Valladolid can win

Nothing in the data singles out Real Valladolid.

Key players

Real Valladolid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcos de Sousa (0.24), Raul Moro (0.23), Mamadou Sylla (0.22).

Availability

No lineup on record for Almería, so availability is unknown. 1 of Real Valladolid's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Almería: 57% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Real Valladolid: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Almería are the model's most likely outcome at 57.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 10.4%. Confidence 55/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 8 from 11.5 xG conceded 27 from 21.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	592119	1.95–1.01	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	592120	1.94–1.01	1-0 10%	57%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to win	59.1%	54.0%	45.5%	1.19×	1.85
Draw	21.3%	24.5%	26.5%	0.92×	4.09
Real Valladolid to win	19.6%	19.4%	28.1%	0.69×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería & not both score	31.3%	29.6%	23.6%	1.26×	3.38
Almería & both teams score	27.8%	25.2%	22.0%	1.14×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.3%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.57
Real Valladolid & both teams score	10.1%	13.3%	14.8%	0.90×	7.54
Real Valladolid & not both score	9.4%	8.3%	13.4%	0.62×	11.99
Draw & not both score	5.0%	4.9%	9.1%	0.54×	20.47

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería & over 1.5	48.8%	45.1%	32.6%	1.38×	2.22
Almería & over 2.5	39.0%	34.9%	26.3%	1.33×	2.87
Almería & under 3.5	36.5%	34.9%	32.2%	1.08×	2.87
Almería & over 3.5	22.7%	21.6%	13.4%	1.61×	4.63
Almería & under 2.5	20.2%	21.6%	19.3%	1.12×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	16.3%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.0%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.0%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Real Valladolid & over 1.5	14.0%	12.8%	19.5%	0.66×	7.79
Real Valladolid & under 3.5	14.3%	12.8%	19.6%	0.65×	7.79
Real Valladolid & over 2.5	11.3%	12.8%	16.7%	0.77×	7.79
Almería & under 1.5	10.4%	12.8%	13.0%	0.99×	7.79
Real Valladolid & under 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	11.5%	0.69×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.63
Real Valladolid & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	8.7%	0.91×	12.63
Real Valladolid & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.0%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (1UP)	72.0%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Real Valladolid (1UP)	37.7%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (2UP)	59.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Real Valladolid (2UP)	19.6%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to win 2nd half	47.6%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
2nd half drawn	32.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Real Valladolid to win 2nd half	20.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.5%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.5%	12.9%	—	—	7.77

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.7%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Almería over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Almería under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Almería over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.3%	29.2%	—	—	3.43

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (+2.5)	83.1%	82.6%	92.3%	0.89×	1.21
Almería (+0.5)	80.4%	82.6%	71.9%	1.15×	1.21
Real Valladolid (+1.5)	65.0%	68.7%	80.4%	0.85×	1.46
Almería (-0.5)	59.1%	57.1%	45.5%	1.25×	1.75
Real Valladolid (+0.5)	40.9%	42.9%	54.5%	0.79×	2.33
Almería (-1.5)	35.0%	31.3%	19.6%	1.60×	3.19
Real Valladolid (-0.5)	19.6%	17.4%	28.1%	0.62×	5.73
Almería (-2.5)	16.9%	17.4%	7.7%	2.28×	5.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to concede	85.6%	86.2%	77.6%	1.11×	1.16
Real Valladolid clean sheet	14.4%	13.8%	22.4%	0.61×	7.26

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to concede in 1st half	56.5%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 1st half	43.5%	43.6%	—	—	2.29

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to concede in 2nd half	66.9%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Real Valladolid clean sheet in 2nd half	33.1%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 6.5 corners	83.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Real Valladolid over 2.5 corners	74.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Real Valladolid under 5.5 corners	73.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Real Valladolid under 4.5 corners	59.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Real Valladolid over 3.5 corners	57.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Real Valladolid under 3.5 corners	42.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Real Valladolid over 4.5 corners	40.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Real Valladolid over 5.5 corners	26.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Real Valladolid under 2.5 corners	25.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Real Valladolid over 6.5 corners	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 3.5 goals	98.0%	97.5%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Real Valladolid under 2.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Real Valladolid under 1.5 goals	73.1%	71.9%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Real Valladolid over 0.5 goals	63.7%	63.2%	67.4%	0.94×	1.58
Real Valladolid under 0.5 goals	36.3%	36.8%	32.6%	1.13×	2.72
Real Valladolid over 1.5 goals	26.9%	28.1%	30.6%	0.92×	3.55
Real Valladolid over 2.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.06
Real Valladolid over 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 1st half	93.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 1st half	66.7%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 1st half	33.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 1st half	6.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.58

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid scores equally in both	45.8%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Real Valladolid scores more in 2nd half	33.9%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Real Valladolid scores more in 1st half	20.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (away no bet)	73.5%	68.4%	63.2%	1.08×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.5%	31.6%	36.8%	0.86×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid even goals	56.6%	56.9%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
Real Valladolid odd goals	43.4%	43.1%	45.4%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.1%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.9%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.7%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Almería to score 2+ in a row	49.8%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.8%	24.9%	—	—	4.01
Almería to score 3+ in a row	22.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Real Valladolid to score 2+ in a row	18.4%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Real Valladolid to score 3+ in a row	4.0%	2.6%	—	—	38.53

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería corners (+3.5)	88.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Almería corners (+2.5)	81.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Real Valladolid corners (+3.5)	81.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Real Valladolid corners (+2.5)	72.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Almería corners (+1.5)	72.3%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Real Valladolid corners (+1.5)	61.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Almería corners (-1.5)	38.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Almería corners (-2.5)	27.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Real Valladolid corners (-1.5)	27.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Almería corners (-3.5)	19.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Real Valladolid corners (-2.5)	18.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Real Valladolid corners (-3.5)	12.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	22.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	10.4%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.72
1-1	10.0%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.72
2-0	9.8%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.51
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.51
0-1	5.5%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
1-2	5.2%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
2-2	5.0%	7.4%	5.7%	1.31×	13.51
3-0	6.3%	7.4%	3.0%	2.43×	13.51
3-1	6.4%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.51
Any other score	5.1%	7.4%	2.7%	2.72×	13.51
0-0	5.0%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.29
0-2	2.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.58×	58.30
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
2-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.30
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
4-0	3.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.30
4-1	3.1%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.30
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.45×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (2nd half DNB)	70.1%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Real Valladolid (2nd half DNB)	29.9%	29.0%	—	—	3.45

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería leading at HT (DNB)	72.0%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Real Valladolid leading at HT (DNB)	28.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw (1X)	80.4%	80.6%	71.9%	1.12×	1.24
Almería or Real Valladolid (12)	78.7%	75.5%	73.5%	1.03×	1.32
Real Valladolid or draw (X2)	40.9%	46.0%	54.5%	0.84×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw at HT	83.1%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Almería or Real Valladolid at HT	60.5%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Real Valladolid or draw at HT	56.5%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw (1UP)	80.4%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Real Valladolid or draw (1UP)	40.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería or draw in 2nd half	79.7%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Almería or Real Valladolid in 2nd half	67.8%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Real Valladolid or draw in 2nd half	52.4%	54.8%	—	—	1.82

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.3%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	40.7%	41.1%	—	—	2.44

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (DNB)	75.1%	74.6%	61.8%	1.21×	1.34
Real Valladolid (DNB)	24.9%	25.4%	38.2%	0.66×	3.94

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score first	62.4%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Real Valladolid to score first	32.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
No goal scored	5.0%	4.4%	—	—	22.66

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.3%	51.3%	54.1%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.7%	48.7%	45.9%	1.06×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.3%	41.6%	43.0%	0.97×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	33.4%	34.6%	39.7%	0.87×	2.89
Not both score & over 2.5	12.3%	12.4%	6.3%	1.97×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.5%	82.7%	85.6%	0.97×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.5%	17.3%	14.4%	1.21×	5.77

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.6%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.4%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.5%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.6%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.2%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.8%	16.6%	—	—	6.01

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.1%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	41.9%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	42.2%	41.3%	1.02×	2.37
4-6 goals	31.1%	30.7%	26.7%	1.15×	3.26
0-1 goals	20.9%	22.9%	30.6%	0.75×	4.36
7+ goals	3.1%	1.8%	1.6%	1.17×	54.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	36.9%	0.97×	2.78
Real Valladolid to score exactly 0	36.3%	35.9%	32.6%	1.10×	2.78
Real Valladolid to score exactly 2	18.7%	19.5%	19.8%	0.99×	5.12
Real Valladolid to score 3+	8.3%	8.6%	10.9%	0.78×	11.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score 3+	30.6%	32.6%	17.2%	1.89×	3.07
Almería to score exactly 1	27.9%	26.6%	35.6%	0.75×	3.77
Almería to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.6%	24.9%	1.06×	3.77
Almería to score exactly 0	14.4%	14.3%	22.4%	0.64×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería leading at HT	43.5%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Draw at HT	39.5%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
Real Valladolid leading at HT	16.9%	15.9%	—	—	6.28

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería -1: 2	40.9%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Almería -1: 1	35.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Almería -1: X	24.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (0:1)	40.9%	42.5%	54.5%	0.78×	2.35
Almería (0:1)	35.0%	30.2%	19.6%	1.54×	3.31
Draw (0:1)	24.2%	24.2%	26.0%	0.93×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (0:2)	65.0%	72.1%	80.4%	0.90×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	18.0%	15.2%	12.1%	1.26×	6.56
Almería (0:2)	16.9%	15.2%	7.7%	1.99×	6.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (0:3)	83.1%	85.4%	92.3%	0.92×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.1%	9.9%	5.3%	1.84×	10.15
Almería (0:3)	6.8%	5.8%	2.4%	2.40×	17.25

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid (0:4)	93.2%	94.5%	97.6%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.5%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.41
Almería (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	0.4%	2.92×	81.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (1:0)	80.4%	81.4%	71.9%	1.13×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	12.8%	12.7%	17.9%	0.71×	7.87
Real Valladolid (1:0)	6.8%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.51

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería (2:0)	93.2%	94.0%	89.7%	1.05×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.62
Real Valladolid (2:0)	1.9%	2.3%	3.2%	0.70×	43.81

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.7%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	23.4%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to concede	63.7%	63.7%	67.4%	0.94×	1.57
Almería clean sheet	36.3%	36.3%	32.6%	1.11×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería clean sheet in 1st half	66.7%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Almería to concede in 1st half	33.3%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería clean sheet in 2nd half	54.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Almería to concede in 2nd half	45.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería over 2.5 corners	80.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Almería under 6.5 corners	77.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Almería under 5.5 corners	65.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Almería over 3.5 corners	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Almería under 4.5 corners	51.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Almería over 4.5 corners	48.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Almería under 3.5 corners	35.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Almería over 5.5 corners	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Almería over 6.5 corners	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Almería under 2.5 corners	20.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería under 3.5 goals	86.8%	87.3%	93.7%	0.93×	1.15
Almería over 0.5 goals	85.6%	87.3%	77.6%	1.12×	1.15
Almería under 2.5 goals	69.4%	68.0%	82.8%	0.82×	1.47
Almería over 1.5 goals	57.7%	58.6%	42.0%	1.40×	1.71
Almería under 1.5 goals	42.3%	41.4%	58.0%	0.71×	2.42
Almería over 2.5 goals	30.6%	32.0%	17.2%	1.86×	3.12
Almería under 0.5 goals	14.4%	12.7%	22.4%	0.57×	7.85
Almería over 3.5 goals	13.2%	12.7%	6.3%	2.03×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería under 1.5 in 1st half	79.7%	76.7%	—	—	1.30
Almería over 0.5 in 1st half	56.5%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Almería under 0.5 in 1st half	43.5%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Almería over 1.5 in 1st half	20.3%	23.3%	—	—	4.29

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería scores more in 2nd half	41.6%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
Almería scores equally in both	31.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Almería scores more in 1st half	27.3%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.1%	51.4%	48.6%	1.06×	1.94
Real Valladolid (home no bet)	47.9%	48.6%	51.4%	0.94×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería even goals	51.0%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Almería odd goals	49.0%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	24.2%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	11.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 2-0	10.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 1-1	9.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
Any other HT score	6.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.56
HT 2-1	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.14
HT 0-2	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.35

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería at HT / Almería at FT	37.2%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
Draw at HT / Almería at FT	18.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Real Valladolid at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	9.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.41
Draw at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	8.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.46
Almería at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Real Valladolid at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Real Valladolid at HT / Almería at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Almería at HT / Real Valladolid at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to score last	62.3%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Real Valladolid to score last	32.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
No goal scored	5.0%	4.4%	—	—	22.66

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.0%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Almería to lead by 1 at any time	72.0%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.0%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Almería to lead by 2 at any time	41.8%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Real Valladolid to lead by 1 at any time	37.7%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Almería to lead by 3 at any time	19.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Real Valladolid to lead by 2 at any time	11.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Real Valladolid to lead by 3 at any time	2.8%	1.6%	—	—	62.46

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería most corners	49.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Real Valladolid most corners	38.4%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.4%	78.7%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.0%	78.7%	67.9%	1.16×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.3%	64.4%	1.12×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.3%	56.6%	1.12×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.8%	63.3%	62.8%	1.01×	1.58
3-6 goals	53.5%	53.2%	47.7%	1.11×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.7%	48.4%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.29
3-4 goals	38.9%	39.2%	36.4%	1.08×	2.55
1-2 goals	38.4%	39.2%	41.8%	0.94×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.1%	35.2%	26.7%	1.32×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.3%	30.2%	23.2%	1.30×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.6%	14.8%	11.4%	1.30×	6.75
7+ goals	3.1%	2.6%	1.6%	1.63×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería never behind	57.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Real Valladolid never behind	23.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.98

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	48.5%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	51.5%	0.95×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	95.4%	90.9%	1.05×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.3%	82.3%	87.1%	0.94×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.1%	77.3%	69.4%	1.11×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	65.8%	66.3%	71.8%	0.92×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.6%	58.6%	49.2%	1.19×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	43.4%	41.4%	50.8%	0.81×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	34.2%	33.7%	28.2%	1.19×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	20.9%	22.7%	30.6%	0.74×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	17.7%	17.7%	12.9%	1.37×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	5.1%	1.51×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	4.6%	9.1%	0.50×	21.79

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.7%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.2%	92.4%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.8%	75.9%	84.8%	0.90×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.0%	72.4%	61.6%	1.17×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.9%	55.8%	64.3%	0.87×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.1%	44.2%	35.7%	1.24×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.0%	27.6%	38.4%	0.72×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.2%	24.1%	15.2%	1.58×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.8%	7.6%	5.6%	1.36×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.3%	2.8%	1.6%	1.72×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.1%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.1%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.9%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.1%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.9%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.0%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.4%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.6%	20.6%	—	—	4.87
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.0%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to score in both halves	84.8%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Almería not to score in both halves	62.2%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Almería to score in both halves	37.8%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Real Valladolid to score in both halves	15.2%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.3%	53.8%	54.1%	1.00×	1.86
Only Almería scores	31.3%	33.3%	23.6%	1.41×	3.01
Only Real Valladolid scores	9.4%	7.2%	13.4%	0.53×	13.99
Neither team scores	5.0%	4.6%	9.1%	0.51×	21.51

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.5%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	21.1%	1.07×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.5%	17.5%	15.4%	1.13×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.9%	17.5%	21.6%	0.81×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.8%	7.6%	7.9%	0.97×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.9%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.0%	4.5%	9.1%	0.49×	22.32

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	28.9%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
2 goals in 1st half	22.2%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	12.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.18

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.0%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	31.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	18.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win both halves	96.6%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Almería not to win both halves	79.4%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Almería to win both halves	20.6%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Real Valladolid to win both halves	3.4%	2.8%	—	—	35.80

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería to win either half	70.4%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Real Valladolid to win neither half	66.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Real Valladolid to win either half	33.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Almería to win neither half	29.6%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Valladolid not to win to nil	90.6%	92.1%	86.6%	1.06×	1.09
Almería not to win to nil	68.7%	69.7%	76.4%	0.91×	1.44
Almería to win to nil	31.3%	30.3%	23.6%	1.28×	3.30
Real Valladolid to win to nil	9.4%	7.9%	13.4%	0.59×	12.61

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Almería by 1	24.2%	24.1%	26.0%	0.93×	4.15
Draw	21.3%	24.1%	26.5%	0.91×	4.15
Almería by 2	18.0%	17.0%	12.1%	1.41×	5.87
Almería by 3+	16.9%	17.0%	7.7%	2.23×	5.87
Real Valladolid by 1	12.8%	11.8%	17.9%	0.66×	8.50
Real Valladolid by 2	4.9%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.82
Real Valladolid by 3+	1.9%	2.7%	3.2%	0.83×	36.91