Alverca v Rio Ave FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Alverca

18:00 UTC

Rio Ave FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 298h before kick-off

Alverca win

47.2%

model 47.5%

Draw

26.4%

model 25.8%

Rio Ave FC win

26.4%

model 26.6%

472626

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.0%
1-1 12.2%
0-1 9.2%
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	43.9%	Under 2.5	56.1%
BTTS yes	47.7%	BTTS no	52.3%
Alverca 1+	76.2%	Alverca 2+	42.0%
Rio Ave FC 1+	63.1%	Rio Ave FC 2+	26.3%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 49%

57.5% fair odds 1.74

strong signal · 12440 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Alverca or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT

83.4% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 961 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Alverca carry the stronger rating, 1451 Elo against 1417.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Alverca have an estimated 47.2% win probability, against 26.4% for Rio Ave FC and 26.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for Alverca and 1.00 for Rio Ave FC.

Why Alverca

Alverca carry the stronger rating, 1451 Elo against 1417.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Rio Ave FC can win

Nothing in the data singles out Rio Ave FC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Alverca, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rio Ave FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Alverca: 46% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rio Ave FC: 46% possession, 6.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Alverca are the model's most likely outcome at 47.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.0%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	482627	1.44–1.00	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	472627	1.42–1.02	1-0 13%	44%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to win	47.5%	47.8%	42.1%	1.13×	2.09
Rio Ave FC to win	26.6%	27.3%	31.3%	0.87×	3.66
Draw	25.8%	27.3%	26.7%	1.02×	3.66

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca & not both score	28.5%	26.5%	26.1%	1.01×	3.78
Alverca & both teams score	19.0%	18.2%	16.2%	1.12×	5.49
Draw & both teams score	17.5%	18.2%	20.4%	0.89×	5.49
Rio Ave FC & not both score	15.4%	18.2%	19.8%	0.92×	5.49
Rio Ave FC & both teams score	11.2%	12.6%	11.7%	1.08×	7.91
Draw & not both score	8.4%	7.7%	6.5%	1.18×	13.04

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca & under 3.5	35.4%	36.6%	29.2%	1.26×	2.73
Alverca & over 1.5	34.5%	31.8%	31.5%	1.01×	3.15
Alverca & over 2.5	25.5%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.78
Alverca & under 2.5	22.0%	21.8%	17.6%	1.24×	4.59
Rio Ave FC & under 3.5	21.3%	21.8%	25.5%	0.86×	4.59
Draw & under 2.5	20.6%	21.8%	17.3%	1.26×	4.59
Draw & under 3.5	20.6%	21.8%	17.3%	1.26×	4.59
Draw & over 1.5	17.5%	17.7%	20.4%	0.87×	5.66
Rio Ave FC & over 1.5	17.5%	17.7%	22.4%	0.79×	5.66
Alverca & under 1.5	13.0%	12.5%	10.8%	1.15×	8.03
Alverca & over 3.5	12.1%	12.5%	13.1%	0.95×	8.03
Rio Ave FC & over 2.5	13.1%	12.5%	17.3%	0.72×	8.03
Rio Ave FC & under 2.5	13.5%	12.5%	14.2%	0.88×	8.03
Draw & under 1.5	8.4%	7.6%	6.5%	1.17×	13.17
Rio Ave FC & under 1.5	9.2%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	5.3%	7.6%	9.6%	0.79×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	5.3%	7.6%	9.6%	0.79×	13.17
Rio Ave FC & over 3.5	5.4%	7.6%	6.0%	1.26×	13.17

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (1UP)	61.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Rio Ave FC (1UP)	42.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (2UP)	47.5%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Rio Ave FC (2UP)	26.6%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to win 2nd half	37.9%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
2nd half drawn	37.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.71
Rio Ave FC to win 2nd half	24.7%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (+2.5)	91.1%	92.3%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Rio Ave FC (+1.5)	76.9%	78.2%	77.8%	1.01×	1.28
Alverca (+0.5)	73.4%	72.8%	68.7%	1.06×	1.37
Rio Ave FC (+0.5)	52.5%	52.0%	57.9%	0.90×	1.92
Alverca (-0.5)	47.5%	48.0%	42.1%	1.14×	2.08
Rio Ave FC (-0.5)	26.6%	27.2%	31.3%	0.87×	3.68
Alverca (-1.5)	23.1%	21.8%	22.2%	0.98×	4.60
Alverca (-2.5)	8.9%	7.7%	10.3%	0.75×	12.96

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to concede	76.2%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
Rio Ave FC clean sheet	23.8%	21.4%	26.1%	0.82×	4.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC clean sheet in 1st half	54.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Rio Ave FC to concede in 1st half	46.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 6.5 corners	87.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Rio Ave FC under 5.5 corners	79.0%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Rio Ave FC over 2.5 corners	68.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Rio Ave FC under 4.5 corners	66.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Rio Ave FC under 3.5 corners	50.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Rio Ave FC over 3.5 corners	49.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Rio Ave FC over 4.5 corners	33.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Rio Ave FC under 2.5 corners	31.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Rio Ave FC over 5.5 corners	21.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Rio Ave FC over 6.5 corners	12.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 3.5 goals	98.1%	97.3%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Rio Ave FC under 2.5 goals	92.0%	92.1%	88.9%	1.04×	1.09
Rio Ave FC under 1.5 goals	73.7%	71.3%	65.4%	1.09×	1.40
Rio Ave FC over 0.5 goals	63.1%	63.7%	67.6%	0.94×	1.57
Rio Ave FC under 0.5 goals	36.9%	36.3%	32.4%	1.12×	2.76
Rio Ave FC over 1.5 goals	26.3%	28.7%	34.6%	0.83×	3.48
Rio Ave FC over 2.5 goals	8.0%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.61
Rio Ave FC over 3.5 goals	1.9%	2.7%	3.9%	0.69×	37.48

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC under 1.5 in 1st half	93.9%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Rio Ave FC under 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Rio Ave FC over 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
Rio Ave FC over 1.5 in 1st half	6.1%	6.3%	—	—	15.78

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (away no bet)	64.8%	62.3%	61.2%	1.02×	1.60
Draw (away no bet)	35.2%	37.7%	38.8%	0.97×	2.65

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC even goals	56.8%	56.5%	58.6%	0.96×	1.77
Rio Ave FC odd goals	43.2%	43.5%	41.4%	1.05×	2.30

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.8%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.2%	13.1%	—	—	7.65

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.0%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.0%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Alverca to score 2+ in a row	35.1%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Rio Ave FC to score 2+ in a row	19.6%	17.4%	—	—	5.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.6%	17.3%	—	—	5.77
Alverca to score 3+ in a row	12.2%	12.8%	—	—	7.84
Rio Ave FC to score 3+ in a row	4.6%	3.1%	—	—	32.41

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca corners (+3.5)	94.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Alverca corners (+2.5)	91.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Alverca corners (+1.5)	86.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Alverca corners (-1.5)	60.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Rio Ave FC corners (+3.5)	60.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Alverca corners (-2.5)	50.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Rio Ave FC corners (+2.5)	49.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Alverca corners (-3.5)	39.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Rio Ave FC corners (+1.5)	39.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Rio Ave FC corners (-1.5)	14.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Rio Ave FC corners (-2.5)	8.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Rio Ave FC corners (-3.5)	5.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.7%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	34.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.2%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	44.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	35.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	26.8%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	26.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.0%	11.2%	10.8%	1.04×	8.90
1-1	12.2%	11.2%	11.0%	1.03×	8.90
0-0	8.4%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.48
0-1	9.2%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.48
1-2	6.3%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.49
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
0-2	4.4%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.10
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	3.9%	0.45×	58.11
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.11
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.11
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.11
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.10
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.11
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.11
3-0	4.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.10
3-1	4.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.10
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.11
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.11
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.15×	58.11
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.11
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.11
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.11
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.11
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.11
Any other score	1.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca leading at HT (DNB)	63.4%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Rio Ave FC leading at HT (DNB)	36.6%	37.0%	—	—	2.71

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca or Rio Ave FC (12)	74.2%	72.7%	73.3%	0.99×	1.38
Alverca or draw (1X)	73.4%	72.7%	68.7%	1.06×	1.38
Rio Ave FC or draw (X2)	52.5%	52.2%	57.9%	0.90×	1.92

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca or draw at HT	80.1%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Rio Ave FC or draw at HT	65.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Alverca or Rio Ave FC at HT	54.5%	54.1%	—	—	1.85

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca or draw (1UP)	73.4%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Rio Ave FC or draw (1UP)	52.5%	60.3%	—	—	1.66

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca or draw in 2nd half	75.3%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Alverca or Rio Ave FC in 2nd half	62.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Rio Ave FC or draw in 2nd half	62.1%	63.1%	—	—	1.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.3%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Neither half drawn	33.7%	34.7%	—	—	2.89

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (DNB)	64.1%	61.7%	57.4%	1.08×	1.62
Rio Ave FC (DNB)	35.9%	38.3%	42.6%	0.90×	2.61

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to score first	54.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Rio Ave FC to score first	37.6%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goal scored	8.4%	6.3%	—	—	15.83

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	52.3%	51.8%	52.0%	1.00×	1.93
Both teams to score	47.7%	48.2%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.0%	41.6%	38.0%	1.10×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	35.5%	38.0%	37.2%	1.02×	2.63
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	11.9%	11.0%	1.09×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.5%	14.2%	0.60×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.9%	85.9%	86.0%	1.00×	1.16
Both teams to score 2+	11.1%	14.1%	14.0%	1.00×	7.11

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.0%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.7%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Both score 2nd half only	21.2%	23.3%	—	—	4.30
Both score 1st half only	11.3%	11.9%	—	—	8.41
Both score in both halves	3.8%	4.6%	—	—	21.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.9%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.1%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	48.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	46.6%	45.7%	1.02×	2.15
0-1 goals	30.6%	30.8%	26.1%	1.18×	3.24
4-6 goals	21.6%	23.3%	27.6%	0.84×	4.29
7+ goals	1.2%	2.0%	0.9%	2.15×	50.28

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 0	36.9%	36.0%	32.4%	1.11×	2.78
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
Rio Ave FC to score exactly 2	18.3%	18.4%	23.6%	0.78×	5.43
Rio Ave FC to score 3+	8.0%	8.7%	11.1%	0.78×	11.52

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to score exactly 1	34.2%	32.1%	31.5%	1.02×	3.11
Alverca to score exactly 2	24.5%	22.9%	23.6%	0.97×	4.37
Alverca to score exactly 0	23.8%	22.9%	26.1%	0.88×	4.37
Alverca to score 3+	17.5%	18.3%	19.1%	0.96×	5.45

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.5%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Alverca leading at HT	34.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Rio Ave FC leading at HT	19.9%	16.6%	—	—	6.03

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca -1: 2	52.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Alverca -1: X	24.4%	23.2%	—	—	4.30
Alverca -1: 1	23.1%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:1)	52.5%	52.0%	57.9%	0.90×	1.92
Draw (0:1)	24.4%	23.5%	20.1%	1.17×	4.25
Alverca (0:1)	23.1%	23.5%	22.2%	1.06×	4.25

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:2)	76.9%	79.3%	77.8%	1.02×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.2%	11.4%	12.0%	0.95×	8.78
Alverca (0:2)	8.9%	7.7%	10.3%	0.75×	12.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:3)	91.1%	92.6%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.1%	6.4%	6.0%	1.07×	15.58
Alverca (0:3)	2.8%	2.6%	4.5%	0.57×	38.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (0:4)	97.2%	97.7%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Alverca (0:4)	0.7%	1.4%	1.4%	1.02×	70.60
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.4%	3.2%	0.44×	70.55

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (1:0)	73.4%	71.7%	68.7%	1.04×	1.39
Draw (1:0)	17.1%	17.5%	17.7%	0.99×	5.70
Rio Ave FC (1:0)	9.5%	7.5%	13.7%	0.55×	13.30

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (2:0)	90.5%	92.9%	86.3%	1.08×	1.08
Draw (2:0)	6.9%	6.7%	7.1%	0.94×	14.99
Rio Ave FC (2:0)	2.6%	2.8%	6.8%	0.41×	36.35

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.5%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to concede	63.1%	65.5%	67.6%	0.97×	1.53
Alverca clean sheet	36.9%	34.5%	32.4%	1.07×	2.90

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca clean sheet in 1st half	67.1%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Alverca to concede in 1st half	32.9%	33.4%	—	—	2.99

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca over 2.5 corners	90.7%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Alverca over 3.5 corners	81.6%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Alverca over 4.5 corners	70.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Alverca over 5.5 corners	57.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Alverca under 6.5 corners	55.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Alverca over 6.5 corners	44.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Alverca under 5.5 corners	42.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Alverca under 4.5 corners	30.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Alverca under 3.5 corners	18.4%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Alverca under 2.5 corners	9.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.33

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca under 3.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Alverca under 2.5 goals	82.5%	82.2%	80.9%	1.02×	1.22
Alverca over 0.5 goals	76.2%	77.9%	73.9%	1.05×	1.28
Alverca under 1.5 goals	58.0%	57.6%	57.4%	1.00×	1.74
Alverca over 1.5 goals	42.0%	42.4%	42.6%	0.99×	2.36
Alverca under 0.5 goals	23.8%	22.1%	26.1%	0.85×	4.53
Alverca over 2.5 goals	17.5%	17.8%	19.1%	0.93×	5.61
Alverca over 3.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	6.5%	1.18×	13.05

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca under 1.5 in 1st half	87.3%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
Alverca under 0.5 in 1st half	54.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Alverca over 0.5 in 1st half	46.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Alverca over 1.5 in 1st half	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.86

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC (home no bet)	50.7%	52.1%	54.0%	0.97×	1.92
Draw (home no bet)	49.3%	47.9%	46.0%	1.04×	2.09

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca even goals	52.8%	50.9%	54.6%	0.93×	1.96
Alverca odd goals	47.2%	49.1%	45.4%	1.08×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.1%	35.4%	—	—	2.83
HT 1-0	22.4%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
HT 0-1	14.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 1-1	8.8%	8.0%	—	—	12.45
HT 2-0	6.9%	8.0%	—	—	12.47
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.40
HT 0-2	2.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.42
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.42
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.5%	—	—	40.47
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca at HT / Alverca at FT	27.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Draw at HT / Alverca at FT	17.5%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.6%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Rio Ave FC at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	13.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Draw at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	11.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Alverca at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.26
Rio Ave FC at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.7%	—	—	27.28
Rio Ave FC at HT / Alverca at FT	2.2%	3.7%	—	—	27.33
Alverca at HT / Rio Ave FC at FT	1.7%	3.7%	—	—	27.35

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to score last	54.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Rio Ave FC to score last	37.6%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
No goal scored	8.4%	6.3%	—	—	15.83

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.6%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Alverca to lead by 1 at any time	61.0%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Rio Ave FC to lead by 1 at any time	42.5%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.2%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Alverca to lead by 2 at any time	28.6%	25.8%	—	—	3.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
Rio Ave FC to lead by 2 at any time	13.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
Alverca to lead by 3 at any time	10.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
Rio Ave FC to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.28

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca most corners	70.4%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Rio Ave FC most corners	20.9%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	8.7%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.9%	87.2%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
1-4 goals	81.6%	82.0%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
1-3 goals	68.8%	68.2%	65.3%	1.04×	1.47
2-6 goals	68.2%	68.2%	73.1%	0.93×	1.47
2-5 goals	65.7%	68.2%	70.2%	0.97×	1.47
2-4 goals	59.5%	58.8%	63.4%	0.93×	1.70
1-2 goals	47.8%	47.4%	42.4%	1.12×	2.11
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.4%	45.7%	1.04×	2.11
3-6 goals	42.6%	43.7%	50.5%	0.87×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.1%	43.7%	47.5%	0.92×	2.29
3-4 goals	33.9%	34.6%	40.7%	0.85×	2.89
4-6 goals	21.6%	23.8%	27.6%	0.86×	4.20
4-5 goals	19.0%	18.8%	24.7%	0.76×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.8%	8.9%	9.9%	0.91×	11.18
7+ goals	1.2%	2.2%	0.9%	2.42×	44.61

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca never behind	49.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Rio Ave FC never behind	30.6%	37.9%	—	—	2.64

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.4%	50.0%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Even number of goals	49.6%	50.0%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Odd goals in 1st half	43.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.7%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.3%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.2%	96.0%	96.1%	1.00×	1.04
Over 0.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	90.0%	92.3%	89.4%	1.03×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	77.2%	77.0%	71.6%	1.08×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	69.4%	67.5%	73.9%	0.91×	1.48
Under 2.5 goals	56.1%	57.5%	48.8%	1.18×	1.74
Over 2.5 goals	43.9%	42.5%	51.2%	0.83×	2.35
Under 1.5 goals	30.6%	32.5%	26.1%	1.25×	3.08
Over 3.5 goals	22.8%	23.0%	28.4%	0.81×	4.35
Over 4.5 goals	10.0%	7.7%	10.6%	0.73×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	6.5%	1.19×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	1.03×	25.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.0%	97.3%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.5%	86.7%	87.1%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	71.1%	71.7%	63.2%	1.13×	1.40
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	58.9%	58.0%	66.3%	0.87×	1.73
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.1%	42.0%	33.7%	1.25×	2.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	28.9%	28.3%	36.8%	0.77×	3.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.5%	13.3%	12.9%	1.03×	7.49
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.0%	2.7%	4.1%	0.66×	36.67
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.7%	1.0%	2.86×	36.70

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.7%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	73.1%	73.4%	—	—	1.36
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.9%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.3%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.0%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.8%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.0%	17.3%	—	—	5.76

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to score in both halves	85.2%	85.1%	—	—	1.18
Alverca not to score in both halves	74.3%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Alverca to score in both halves	25.7%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Rio Ave FC to score in both halves	14.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.72

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	47.7%	50.6%	48.0%	1.06×	1.98
Only Alverca scores	28.5%	25.5%	26.1%	0.98×	3.92
Only Rio Ave FC scores	15.4%	17.1%	19.8%	0.87×	5.84
Neither team scores	8.4%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.6%	25.0%	22.8%	1.09×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	22.2%	22.3%	19.8%	1.13×	4.48
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	22.3%	23.0%	0.97×	4.49
Exactly 4 goals	12.8%	12.3%	17.9%	0.69×	8.13
Exactly 0 goals	8.4%	7.8%	6.5%	1.20×	12.88
Exactly 5 goals	6.2%	7.8%	6.9%	1.12×	12.89
6 or more goals	3.8%	4.1%	3.9%	1.05×	24.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.2%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
1 goal in 2nd half	34.6%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	24.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to win both halves	95.1%	97.4%	—	—	1.03
Alverca not to win both halves	87.0%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Alverca to win both halves	13.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Rio Ave FC to win both halves	4.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC to win neither half	60.2%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Alverca to win either half	59.4%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Alverca to win neither half	40.6%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Rio Ave FC to win either half	39.8%	36.0%	—	—	2.78

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rio Ave FC not to win to nil	84.6%	82.7%	80.2%	1.03×	1.21
Alverca not to win to nil	71.5%	74.8%	73.9%	1.01×	1.34
Alverca to win to nil	28.5%	25.2%	26.1%	0.97×	3.96
Rio Ave FC to win to nil	15.4%	17.3%	19.8%	0.88×	5.77

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.8%	27.4%	26.7%	1.03×	3.65
Alverca by 1	24.4%	23.3%	20.1%	1.16×	4.29
Rio Ave FC by 1	17.1%	17.3%	17.7%	0.98×	5.78
Alverca by 2	14.2%	11.8%	12.0%	0.98×	8.46
Alverca by 3+	8.9%	7.3%	10.3%	0.71×	13.66
Rio Ave FC by 2	6.9%	7.3%	7.1%	1.03×	13.66
Rio Ave FC by 3+	2.6%	3.0%	6.8%	0.44×	33.82