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América de Cali v Águilas Doradas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 24 September 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
América de Cali win
66.1%
model 62.9%
Draw
23.0%
model 22.8%
Águilas Doradas win
10.9%
model 14.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (245 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 11.7%
  2. 1-0 11.0%
  3. 1-1 10.9%
  4. 2-1 9.8%
  5. 3-0 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.553.2% Under 2.546.8%
BTTS yes49.7% BTTS no50.3%
América de Cali 1+86.0% América de Cali 2+58.6%
Águilas Doradas 1+56.7% Águilas Doradas 2+20.5%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.84. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
82/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
América de Cali (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 46%
64.1% fair odds 1.56
strong signal · 1009 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • América de Cali carry the stronger rating, 1645 Elo against 1523.
  • Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

América de Cali have an estimated 66.1% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 10.9% for Águilas Doradas. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.97 for América de Cali and 0.84 for Águilas Doradas.

Why América de Cali

América de Cali carry the stronger rating, 1645 Elo against 1523. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Águilas Doradas can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. They have had 24 days' rest to América de Cali's 20.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for América de Cali, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Águilas Doradas, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

América de Cali: 55% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Águilas Doradas: 65% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 7.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

América de Cali are the model's most likely outcome at 66.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.7%. Confidence 82/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.97–0.84 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.05–0.71 2-0 13% 52% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali to win 62.9% 63.6% 45.8% 1.39× 1.57
Draw 22.8% 22.1% 29.4% 0.75× 4.52
Águilas Doradas to win 14.3% 10.5% 24.9% 0.42× 9.53
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali & not both score 36.3% 37.2% 27.1% 1.37× 2.69
América de Cali & both teams score 26.6% 26.3% 18.9% 1.39× 3.80
Draw & both teams score 15.8% 17.7% 18.8% 0.95× 5.64
Águilas Doradas & both teams score 7.3% 7.3% 11.5% 0.63× 13.68
Águilas Doradas & not both score 7.0% 7.3% 13.5% 0.54× 13.68
Draw & not both score 7.0% 7.3% 10.8% 0.67× 13.68
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali & over 1.5 51.9% 49.1% 33.9% 1.45× 2.04
América de Cali & over 2.5 40.2% 43.9% 25.6% 1.72× 2.28
América de Cali & under 3.5 40.2% 43.9% 35.7% 1.23× 2.28
América de Cali & over 3.5 22.7% 21.5% 10.3% 2.09× 4.65
América de Cali & under 2.5 22.7% 21.5% 20.4% 1.05× 4.65
Draw & under 2.5 17.8% 17.6% 23.8% 0.74× 5.69
Draw & under 3.5 17.8% 17.6% 23.8% 0.74× 5.69
Draw & over 1.5 15.8% 17.6% 18.8% 0.94× 5.70
América de Cali & under 1.5 11.0% 12.7% 12.1% 1.05× 7.87
Águilas Doradas & under 3.5 11.1% 12.7% 20.0% 0.64× 7.87
Águilas Doradas & over 1.5 10.1% 12.7% 16.5% 0.77× 7.87
Águilas Doradas & over 2.5 8.0% 7.5% 12.9% 0.58× 13.41
Draw & under 1.5 7.0% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.41
Águilas Doradas & under 2.5 6.3% 7.5% 12.1% 0.62× 13.42
Draw & over 2.5 5.0% 4.6% 5.8% 0.78× 21.89
Draw & over 3.5 5.0% 4.6% 5.8% 0.78× 21.89
Águilas Doradas & under 1.5 4.2% 4.6% 8.5% 0.54× 21.93
Águilas Doradas & over 3.5 3.3% 4.6% 5.0% 0.91× 21.97
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali (1UP) 74.3% 76.8% 1.30
Águilas Doradas (1UP) 31.4% 32.5% 3.08
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali (2UP) 62.9% 67.1% 1.49
Águilas Doradas (2UP) 14.3% 14.2% 7.02
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali to win 2nd half 50.7% 48.5% 2.06
2nd half drawn 33.1% 33.8% 2.96
Águilas Doradas to win 2nd half 16.2% 20.0% 4.99
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali (+0.5) 85.7% 88.9% 75.1% 1.18× 1.12
Águilas Doradas (+2.5) 80.6% 82.2% 91.8% 0.90× 1.22
América de Cali (-0.5) 62.9% 64.1% 45.8% 1.40× 1.56
Águilas Doradas (+1.5) 61.0% 64.0% 79.6% 0.80× 1.56
América de Cali (-1.5) 39.0% 36.0% 20.4% 1.76× 2.78
Águilas Doradas (+0.5) 37.1% 35.9% 54.2% 0.66× 2.78
América de Cali (-2.5) 19.4% 17.8% 8.2% 2.17× 5.63
Águilas Doradas (-0.5) 14.3% 11.1% 24.9% 0.45× 9.03
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas to concede 86.0% 89.7% 75.8% 1.18× 1.12
Águilas Doradas clean sheet 14.0% 10.3% 24.2% 0.43× 9.68
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas to concede in 1st half 57.1% 60.3% 1.66
Águilas Doradas clean sheet in 1st half 42.9% 39.7% 2.52
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas under 6.5 corners 89.2% 85.2% 1.17
Águilas Doradas under 5.5 corners 81.5% 81.4% 1.23
Águilas Doradas under 4.5 corners 70.0% 71.6% 1.40
Águilas Doradas over 2.5 corners 63.6% 61.8% 1.62
Águilas Doradas under 3.5 corners 54.6% 53.1% 1.88
Águilas Doradas over 3.5 corners 45.4% 46.9% 2.13
Águilas Doradas under 2.5 corners 36.4% 38.2% 2.62
Águilas Doradas over 4.5 corners 30.0% 28.4% 3.52
Águilas Doradas over 5.5 corners 18.5% 18.6% 5.37
Águilas Doradas over 6.5 corners 10.8% 14.8% 6.76
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas under 3.5 goals 98.9% 97.4% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Águilas Doradas under 2.5 goals 94.7% 92.7% 92.9% 1.00× 1.08
Águilas Doradas under 1.5 goals 79.5% 75.4% 74.3% 1.01× 1.33
Águilas Doradas over 0.5 goals 56.8% 57.6% 62.2% 0.93× 1.74
Águilas Doradas under 0.5 goals 43.2% 42.4% 37.8% 1.12× 2.36
Águilas Doradas over 1.5 goals 20.5% 24.6% 25.7% 0.96× 4.06
Águilas Doradas over 2.5 goals 5.3% 7.3% 7.1% 1.03× 13.69
Águilas Doradas over 3.5 goals 1.1% 2.6% 1.9% 1.36× 37.85
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas under 1.5 in 1st half 95.5% 96.0% 1.04
Águilas Doradas under 0.5 in 1st half 71.5% 68.9% 1.45
Águilas Doradas over 0.5 in 1st half 28.5% 31.1% 3.21
Águilas Doradas over 1.5 in 1st half 4.5% 4.0% 25.30
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali (away no bet) 73.4% 74.5% 60.9% 1.22× 1.34
Draw (away no bet) 26.6% 25.5% 39.1% 0.65× 3.93
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas even goals 59.3% 58.0% 57.5% 1.01× 1.72
Águilas Doradas odd goals 40.7% 42.0% 42.5% 0.99× 2.38
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.0% 81.8% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.0% 18.2% 5.49
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.9% 65.1% 1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.1% 34.9% 2.86
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.5% 61.2% 1.63
América de Cali to score 2+ in a row 51.8% 52.8% 1.89
Either team to score 3+ in a row 26.3% 25.1% 3.98
América de Cali to score 3+ in a row 24.0% 21.8% 4.59
Águilas Doradas to score 2+ in a row 13.5% 12.2% 8.18
Águilas Doradas to score 3+ in a row 2.5% 3.4% 29.77
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali corners (+3.5) 91.7% 89.5% 1.12
América de Cali corners (+2.5) 86.5% 84.5% 1.18
América de Cali corners (+1.5) 79.2% 74.8% 1.34
Águilas Doradas corners (+3.5) 73.5% 70.8% 1.41
Águilas Doradas corners (+2.5) 63.8% 61.9% 1.62
Águilas Doradas corners (+1.5) 52.7% 52.5% 1.91
América de Cali corners (-1.5) 47.3% 47.5% 2.11
América de Cali corners (-2.5) 36.2% 38.1% 2.62
América de Cali corners (-3.5) 26.5% 29.2% 3.42
Águilas Doradas corners (-1.5) 20.8% 25.2% 3.98
Águilas Doradas corners (-2.5) 13.5% 15.5% 6.45
Águilas Doradas corners (-3.5) 8.3% 10.5% 9.57
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 53.8% 45.4% 2.20
9-11 corners 26.5% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 19.7% 22.7% 4.40
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 86.1% 83.0% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 80.3% 80.7% 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 73.0% 72.6% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 64.1% 63.3% 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 57.2% 57.9% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 53.8% 53.2% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 46.2% 46.8% 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 42.8% 42.1% 2.38
Over 9.5 corners 35.9% 36.7% 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 27.0% 27.4% 3.65
Over 11.5 corners 19.7% 19.3% 5.18
Over 12.5 corners 13.9% 17.0% 5.87
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 11.7% 11.6% 8.5% 1.37× 8.63
1-0 11.0% 11.6% 12.1% 0.96× 8.64
1-1 10.9% 11.6% 13.1% 0.89× 8.64
2-1 9.8% 7.3% 11.0% 0.66× 13.74
3-0 7.7% 7.3% 4.6% 1.59× 13.74
0-0 7.0% 7.3% 10.8% 0.67× 13.75
3-1 6.4% 7.3% 3.5% 2.09× 13.75
Any other score 5.1% 7.3% 2.4% 3.08× 13.76
0-1 4.2% 1.8% 8.5% 0.21× 55.40
1-2 4.2% 1.8% 7.1% 0.25× 55.40
2-2 4.1% 1.8% 5.1% 0.35× 55.41
4-0 3.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.08× 55.41
3-2 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 0.76× 55.44
4-1 3.2% 1.8% 0.7% 2.60× 55.43
0-2 2.1% 1.8% 3.8% 0.48× 55.46
4-2 1.3% 1.8% 0.7% 2.60× 55.48
0-3 0.6% 1.8% 1.1% 1.62× 55.49
0-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3.24× 55.51
1-3 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.30× 55.48
1-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 2.59× 55.50
2-3 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 0.93× 55.48
2-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 12.97× 55.50
3-3 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 2.16× 55.49
3-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 6.49× 55.50
4-3 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 3.24× 55.50
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 12.97× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali leading at HT (DNB) 76.9% 79.7% 1.26
Águilas Doradas leading at HT (DNB) 23.1% 20.3% 4.91
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali or draw (1X) 85.7% 89.5% 75.1% 1.19× 1.12
América de Cali or Águilas Doradas (12) 77.2% 77.9% 70.6% 1.10× 1.28
Águilas Doradas or draw (X2) 37.1% 36.4% 54.2% 0.67× 2.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali or draw at HT 86.2% 88.2% 1.13
América de Cali or Águilas Doradas at HT 59.7% 58.3% 1.72
Águilas Doradas or draw at HT 54.1% 52.1% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali or draw (1UP) 85.7% 92.4% 1.08
Águilas Doradas or draw (1UP) 37.1% 45.6% 2.20
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali or draw in 2nd half 83.8% 80.0% 1.25
América de Cali or Águilas Doradas in 2nd half 66.9% 66.2% 1.51
Águilas Doradas or draw in 2nd half 49.3% 51.5% 1.94
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.1% 58.0% 1.72
Neither half drawn 40.9% 42.0% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali (DNB) 81.5% 81.3% 64.8% 1.25× 1.23
Águilas Doradas (DNB) 18.5% 18.7% 35.2% 0.53× 5.34
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali to score first 65.3% 70.9% 1.41
Águilas Doradas to score first 27.8% 24.8% 4.04
No goal scored 7.0% 6.2% 16.02
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 50.3% 52.8% 51.1% 1.03× 1.89
Both teams to score 49.7% 47.2% 48.9% 0.97× 2.12
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 38.9% 37.5% 36.0% 1.04× 2.67
Not both score & under 2.5 35.9% 37.4% 43.1% 0.87× 2.67
Not both score & over 2.5 14.3% 11.8% 8.2% 1.43× 8.51
Both score & under 2.5 10.9% 11.7% 13.1% 0.90× 8.54
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.0% 85.6% 88.8% 0.96× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.0% 14.4% 11.3% 1.28× 6.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.0% 70.5% 1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.0% 29.5% 3.38
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.9% 59.4% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 22.6% 24.4% 4.10
Both score 1st half only 12.1% 11.6% 8.65
Both score in both halves 4.3% 4.8% 20.73
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.6% 83.2% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.4% 16.8% 5.96
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.1% 55.6% 1.80
A half without a goal 43.9% 44.4% 2.25
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.0% 45.9% 48.2% 0.95× 2.18
4-6 goals 28.5% 27.7% 19.4% 1.43× 3.61
0-1 goals 22.1% 22.8% 31.1% 0.73× 4.39
7+ goals 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.28× 51.33
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas to score exactly 0 43.2% 41.5% 37.8% 1.10× 2.41
Águilas Doradas to score exactly 1 36.3% 34.6% 36.7% 0.94× 2.89
Águilas Doradas to score exactly 2 15.2% 18.3% 18.8% 0.98× 5.47
Águilas Doradas to score 3+ 5.3% 7.5% 7.1% 1.07× 13.25
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali to score 3+ 31.5% 30.5% 15.6% 1.96× 3.28
América de Cali to score exactly 1 27.5% 27.1% 34.4% 0.79× 3.69
América de Cali to score exactly 2 27.1% 27.1% 26.1% 1.04× 3.70
América de Cali to score exactly 0 14.0% 13.5% 24.2% 0.56× 7.40
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali leading at HT 45.9% 47.9% 2.09
Draw at HT 40.3% 41.7% 2.40
Águilas Doradas leading at HT 13.8% 11.8% 8.50
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali -1: 1 39.0% 32.9% 3.04
América de Cali -1: 2 37.1% 32.8% 3.05
América de Cali -1: X 23.9% 24.0% 4.17
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali (0:1) 39.0% 30.7% 20.4% 1.51× 3.26
Águilas Doradas (0:1) 37.1% 30.5% 54.2% 0.56× 3.28
Draw (0:1) 23.9% 24.4% 25.6% 0.96× 4.09
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas (0:2) 61.0% 69.2% 79.6% 0.87× 1.45
Draw (0:2) 19.6% 16.4% 12.4% 1.33× 6.10
América de Cali (0:2) 19.4% 16.4% 8.2% 2.00× 6.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas (0:3) 80.6% 83.2% 91.8% 0.91× 1.20
Draw (0:3) 11.4% 12.4% 5.4% 2.29× 8.08
América de Cali (0:3) 8.0% 6.9% 2.9% 2.38× 14.42
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas (0:4) 92.0% 94.0% 97.1% 0.97× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.2% 7.0% 1.9% 3.59× 14.33
América de Cali (0:4) 2.8% 1.3% 1.1% 1.13× 79.93
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali (1:0) 85.7% 88.1% 75.1% 1.17× 1.14
Draw (1:0) 9.7% 8.6% 17.4% 0.50× 11.58
Águilas Doradas (1:0) 4.6% 3.1% 7.6% 0.41× 32.21
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali (2:0) 95.4% 97.2% 92.4% 1.05× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.6% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.94
Águilas Doradas (2:0) 1.1% 2.7% 2.8% 0.96× 37.54
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.9% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 25.9% 26.1% 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali to concede 56.8% 59.5% 62.2% 0.96× 1.68
América de Cali clean sheet 43.2% 40.5% 37.8% 1.07× 2.47
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali clean sheet in 1st half 71.5% 67.9% 1.47
América de Cali to concede in 1st half 28.5% 32.1% 3.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali over 2.5 corners 79.8% 76.6% 1.31
América de Cali under 6.5 corners 73.9% 71.8% 1.39
América de Cali over 3.5 corners 65.6% 66.7% 1.50
América de Cali under 5.5 corners 62.7% 62.3% 1.61
América de Cali over 4.5 corners 50.8% 52.6% 1.90
América de Cali under 4.5 corners 49.2% 47.4% 2.11
América de Cali over 5.5 corners 37.3% 37.7% 2.65
América de Cali under 3.5 corners 34.4% 33.3% 3.01
América de Cali over 6.5 corners 26.1% 28.2% 3.55
América de Cali under 2.5 corners 20.2% 23.4% 4.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali under 3.5 goals 86.3% 87.8% 95.3% 0.92× 1.14
América de Cali over 0.5 goals 86.0% 87.8% 75.8% 1.16× 1.14
América de Cali under 2.5 goals 68.5% 68.8% 84.4% 0.81× 1.45
América de Cali over 1.5 goals 58.5% 55.8% 41.5% 1.34× 1.79
América de Cali under 1.5 goals 41.5% 44.2% 58.5% 0.76× 2.26
América de Cali over 2.5 goals 31.5% 31.2% 15.6% 2.00× 3.21
América de Cali under 0.5 goals 14.0% 12.2% 24.2% 0.51× 8.17
América de Cali over 3.5 goals 13.7% 12.2% 4.7% 2.59× 8.17
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali under 1.5 in 1st half 79.2% 79.4% 1.26
América de Cali over 0.5 in 1st half 57.1% 60.0% 1.67
América de Cali under 0.5 in 1st half 42.9% 40.0% 2.50
América de Cali over 1.5 in 1st half 20.8% 20.6% 4.86
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 61.4% 61.3% 54.2% 1.13× 1.63
Águilas Doradas (home no bet) 38.6% 38.7% 45.8% 0.85× 2.59
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali even goals 51.0% 50.2% 53.3% 0.94× 1.99
América de Cali odd goals 49.0% 49.8% 46.7% 1.07× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.8% 30.4% 3.29
HT 1-0 25.8% 28.0% 3.57
HT 2-0 11.0% 11.2% 8.95
HT 0-1 10.1% 11.2% 8.96
HT 1-1 8.9% 7.7% 12.98
Any other HT score 5.9% 7.7% 13.02
HT 2-1 3.7% 2.5% 39.79
HT 0-2 1.7% 2.5% 39.90
HT 1-2 1.5% 2.5% 39.92
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.5% 39.96
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali at HT / América de Cali at FT 40.3% 42.2% 2.37
Draw at HT / América de Cali at FT 19.9% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.4% 12.0% 8.34
Águilas Doradas at HT / Águilas Doradas at FT 7.1% 6.6% 15.22
Draw at HT / Águilas Doradas at FT 6.1% 6.6% 15.25
América de Cali at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.4% 29.32
Águilas Doradas at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.4% 29.35
Águilas Doradas at HT / América de Cali at FT 2.7% 3.4% 29.40
América de Cali at HT / Águilas Doradas at FT 1.1% 3.4% 29.46
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali to score last 65.4% 68.0% 1.47
Águilas Doradas to score last 27.6% 31.7% 3.16
No goal scored 7.0% 6.2% 16.02
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.0% 93.7% 1.07
América de Cali to lead by 1 at any time 74.3% 77.1% 1.30
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 53.0% 51.0% 1.96
América de Cali to lead by 2 at any time 45.0% 46.1% 2.17
Águilas Doradas to lead by 1 at any time 31.4% 32.0% 3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 23.7% 19.8% 5.04
América de Cali to lead by 3 at any time 22.0% 19.8% 5.06
Águilas Doradas to lead by 2 at any time 8.2% 7.1% 14.16
Águilas Doradas to lead by 3 at any time 1.7% 2.6% 38.68
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali most corners 58.8% 55.6% 1.80
Águilas Doradas most corners 30.2% 34.4% 2.91
Corners level 11.0% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.5% 87.9% 85.7% 1.03× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.7% 78.9% 80.0% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.5% 78.8% 67.5% 1.17× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.4% 73.6% 65.4% 1.13× 1.36
2-4 goals 62.6% 62.3% 59.7% 1.04× 1.61
1-3 goals 62.1% 62.3% 68.5% 0.91× 1.61
3-6 goals 50.8% 52.3% 42.6% 1.23× 1.91
2-3 goals 47.0% 48.0% 48.2% 1.00× 2.08
3-5 goals 46.7% 48.0% 40.6% 1.18× 2.08
1-2 goals 39.8% 38.9% 45.3% 0.86× 2.57
3-4 goals 37.9% 38.8% 34.9% 1.11× 2.57
4-6 goals 28.5% 30.5% 19.4% 1.57× 3.28
4-5 goals 24.4% 24.8% 17.4% 1.43× 4.04
5-6 goals 12.9% 13.5% 7.9% 1.70× 7.42
7+ goals 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.33× 49.34
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali never behind 61.7% 69.3% 1.44
Águilas Doradas never behind 18.8% 20.3% 4.92
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.0% 50.1% 50.4% 0.99× 2.00
Even number of goals 52.0% 49.9% 49.6% 1.01× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.0% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 45.0% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.6% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.4% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.4% 93.0% 96.4% 0.96× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.0% 93.0% 89.2% 1.04× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.7% 81.0% 90.7% 0.89× 1.23
Over 1.5 goals 77.9% 78.3% 68.9% 1.14× 1.28
Under 3.5 goals 69.1% 65.5% 79.2% 0.83× 1.53
Over 2.5 goals 53.2% 53.5% 44.0% 1.22× 1.87
Under 2.5 goals 46.8% 46.5% 56.0% 0.83× 2.15
Over 3.5 goals 30.9% 34.5% 20.8% 1.65× 2.90
Under 1.5 goals 22.1% 21.7% 31.1% 0.70× 4.60
Over 4.5 goals 15.3% 19.0% 9.3% 2.04× 5.27
Under 0.5 goals 7.0% 7.0% 10.8% 0.65× 14.19
Over 5.5 goals 6.6% 7.0% 3.6% 1.95× 14.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.4% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.8% 92.7% 96.2% 0.96× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 81.8% 80.7% 89.5% 0.90× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.7% 72.0% 58.6% 1.23× 1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.2% 62.3% 72.9% 0.85× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.8% 37.7% 27.1% 1.39× 2.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.3% 28.0% 41.4% 0.68× 3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.2% 19.3% 10.5% 1.84× 5.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.2% 7.3% 3.8% 1.90× 13.76
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.6% 2.8% 1.6% 1.78× 36.06
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.3% 88.1% 1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.2% 68.6% 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.8% 68.6% 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.2% 31.4% 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.8% 31.4% 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.7% 11.9% 8.41
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.0% 80.3% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.7% 80.3% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.6% 51.9% 1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.4% 48.1% 2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.3% 19.7% 5.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.0% 19.7% 5.08
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas not to score in both halves 88.7% 84.6% 1.18
América de Cali not to score in both halves 61.5% 62.4% 1.60
América de Cali to score in both halves 38.5% 37.6% 2.66
Águilas Doradas to score in both halves 11.3% 15.4% 6.49
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 49.7% 49.6% 48.9% 1.02× 2.02
Only América de Cali scores 36.3% 39.8% 27.1% 1.47× 2.51
Only Águilas Doradas scores 7.0% 6.6% 13.5% 0.49× 15.04
Neither team scores 7.0% 6.6% 10.8% 0.61× 15.04
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.7% 21.6% 25.0% 0.86× 4.64
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 21.5% 23.3% 0.92× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 15.6% 18.5% 11.7% 1.59× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 15.1% 18.5% 20.4% 0.91× 5.40
Exactly 5 goals 8.8% 7.6% 5.8% 1.31× 13.12
Exactly 0 goals 7.0% 7.6% 10.8% 0.70× 13.14
6 or more goals 6.6% 7.6% 3.6% 2.11× 13.15
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.6% 51.0% 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 31.4% 33.1% 3.02
No goals in 2nd half 20.0% 18.4% 5.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas not to win both halves 97.7% 96.7% 1.03
América de Cali not to win both halves 76.5% 79.9% 1.25
América de Cali to win both halves 23.5% 20.1% 4.99
Águilas Doradas to win both halves 2.3% 3.3% 30.30
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali to win either half 73.1% 72.4% 1.38
Águilas Doradas to win neither half 72.3% 72.3% 1.38
Águilas Doradas to win either half 27.7% 27.7% 3.61
América de Cali to win neither half 26.9% 27.6% 3.62
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Águilas Doradas not to win to nil 93.0% 92.4% 86.5% 1.07× 1.08
América de Cali not to win to nil 63.7% 61.4% 72.9% 0.84× 1.63
América de Cali to win to nil 36.3% 38.6% 27.1% 1.42× 2.59
Águilas Doradas to win to nil 7.0% 7.6% 13.5% 0.57× 13.08
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
América de Cali by 1 23.9% 23.8% 25.6% 0.93× 4.21
Draw 22.8% 23.7% 29.4% 0.81× 4.21
América de Cali by 2 19.6% 17.0% 12.4% 1.38× 5.88
América de Cali by 3+ 19.4% 17.0% 8.2% 2.07× 5.88
Águilas Doradas by 1 9.7% 7.1% 17.4% 0.41× 14.05
Águilas Doradas by 2 3.6% 2.8% 5.0% 0.57× 35.27
Águilas Doradas by 3+ 1.1% 2.8% 2.8% 1.01× 35.63
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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