Angers v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 9
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.92 – -0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
18.7%
Draw
26.6%
Lille win
54.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.76–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 0.92 xGLille 2.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.18 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 14' |
Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
Lille |
Chuba Akpom | 0.65 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 34' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 42' |
Angers |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zinedine Ferhat |
| 45' |
Lille |
Alexsandro Ribeiro | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 47' |
Lille |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 49' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Chuba Akpom |
| 55' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Zinedine Ferhat |
| 58' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 64' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 80' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 90' |
Angers |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Lefort |
| 93' |
Lille |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Chevalier |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 1.52 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 1.16 | 1.46 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.27 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.30 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.53 |
| Ismaily DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 |
| Benjamin André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| André Gomes MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 |
| Hákon Haraldsson MR | 75 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.02 | 1.42 |
| Chuba Akpom FW | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 1.12 |
| Bafode Diakite DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 |
| Aissa Mandi Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mitchel Bakker Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Mbappé Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Himad Abdelli AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Yahia Fofana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Zinedine Ferhat AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| Yassin Belkhdim DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zinédine Ould Khaled DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florent Hanin DL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jim Allevinah AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Farid El Melali Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacques Ekomie Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lilian Raolisoa Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |