Angers v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 11
On target
2 – 8
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.86 – +0.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
22.2%
Draw
32.2%
Lille win
45.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLDLLDDLW last 10
scored 9
from 12.3 xG
conceded 19
from 20.3 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.78–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.87–1.64 | 0-1 13% | 46% | 47% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 1.86 xGLille 1.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 6' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ethan Mbappé |
| 9' |
Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 10' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nabil Bentaleb |
| 27' |
Angers |
Anthony Bermont | 0.16 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Lefort |
| 29' |
Lille |
Tiago Santos | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 30' |
Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 30' |
Lille |
Tiago Santos | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 35' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Angers |
Anthony Bermont | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 40' |
Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 43' |
Angers |
Amine El Ouazzani | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 49' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 53' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 54' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 60' |
Angers |
Amine El Ouazzani | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 63' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 68' |
Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 70' |
Angers |
Amine El Ouazzani | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 73' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nabil Bentaleb |
| 73' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Simbakoli |
| 77' |
Angers |
Mamadou Simbakoli | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Angers |
Mamadou Simbakoli | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ousmane Camara |
| 91' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 93' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Lefort |
| 93' |
Angers |
Mamadou Simbakoli | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 94' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Santos DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Nabil Bentaleb DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.72 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.53 | 0.81 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ethan Mbappé AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| Basar Önal AML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Felix Correia Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaetan Perrin Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Isaac Cossier Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Verdonk Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Sbaï AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0.16 | 1.21 | 0.87 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Branco van den Boomen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.55 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.57 |
| Lilian Raolisoa DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Yassin Belkhdim DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.56 |
| Amine El Ouazzani FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Jim Allevinah AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Anthony Bermont AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Mamadou Simbakoli Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Bané Diatta Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlens Arcus Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |