Angers v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 11
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 5
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.35 – -0.53
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
23.3%
Draw
26.4%
Lyon win
50.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDDLWLDWLL last 10
scored 12
from 15.4 xG
conceded 20
from 21.5 xG
Lyon have scored 18 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 13.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLWDWDWLW last 10
scored 18
from 18.0 xG
conceded 13
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.86–1.41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.03–1.68 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 0.35 xGLyon 0.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Lyon |
Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 13' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tanner Tessmann |
| 14' |
 Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tanner Tessmann |
| 27' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacques Ekomie |
| 30' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 33' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 40' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 46' |
Angers |
Ousmane Camara | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 47' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 48' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 49' |
Lyon |
Pavel Sulc | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Endrick |
| 71' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abner |
| 79' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Lyon |
Rachid Ghezzal | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Roman Yaremchuk |
| 82' |
Lyon |
Tyler Morton | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Angers |
Ousmane Camara | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 94' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Louãr |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassin Belkhdim MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Amine Sbaï FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Branco van den Boomen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Haris Belkebla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marius Louãr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Lilian Raolisoa DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lanroy Machine FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florent Hanin Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Mouton Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierrick Capelle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afonso Moreira AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| Tyler Morton DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Abner DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Tanner Tessmann DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Endrick AMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Corentin Tolisso AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Pavel Sulc FW | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Roman Yaremchuk Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Rachid Ghezzal Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Steeve Kango Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Khalis Merah Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Adam Karabec Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |