Angers v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 16
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
3 – 11
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.85
Goals − xG
-0.50 – -0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
19.9%
Draw
27.1%
Monaco win
53.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 0.50 xGMonaco 2.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Monaco |
Vanderson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 3' |
Monaco |
Vanderson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 6' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 17' |
Monaco |
Ben Seghir | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Denis Zakaria |
| 23' |
Monaco |
Ben Seghir | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 27' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 29' |
Monaco |
Al Musrati | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 46' |
 Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Himad Abdelli |
| 47' |
Monaco |
Al Musrati | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ben Seghir |
| 49' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 50' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 53' |
Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Zinedine Ferhat |
| 55' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thilo Kehrer |
| 59' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 69' |
Angers |
Farid El Melali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Caio Henrique |
| 78' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 79' |
Angers |
Farid El Melali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Himad Abdelli |
| 87' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 91' |
Angers |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghnes Akliouche AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.23 | 0.89 |
| Takumi Minamino AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.54 |
| Denis Zakaria DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.62 |
| Wilfried Stephane Singo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| Vanderson DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ben Seghir AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Al Musrati DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Breel Embolo Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Lamine Camara Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Krépin Diatta Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Salisu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Himad Abdelli AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Florent Hanin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Yahia Fofana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Zinedine Ferhat AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Yassin Belkhdim DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jim Allevinah AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Farid El Melali Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Pierrick Capelle Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahima Niane Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |