Angers v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 11
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.36 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.59 – -0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
20.6%
Draw
21.4%
Monaco win
57.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.87–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.94–1.88 | 0-1 11% | 54% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 1.59 xGMonaco 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' |
 Angers |
Florent Hanin | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 15' |
 Monaco |
Kassoum Ouattara | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 19' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 23' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Prosper Peter |
| 23' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.91 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 38' |
Monaco |
Jordan Teze | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Angers |
Haris Belkebla | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 46' |
Monaco |
Mohammed Salisu | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 47' |
Angers |
Florent Hanin | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 49' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Prosper Peter |
| 52' |
Angers |
Carlens Arcus | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Monaco |
Krépin Diatta | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Coulibaly |
| 56' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 56' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jordan Teze |
| 62' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 67' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 68' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Takumi Minamino |
| 75' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Camara |
| 79' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibirin Harouna |
| 79' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 94' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krépin Diatta DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mohammed Salisu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Caio Henrique DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.46 |
| Jordan Teze MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.46 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Anssumane Fati AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Kassoum Ouattara DML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Folarin Balogun Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Takumi Minamino Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Stanis Idumbo Muzambo Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aladji Bamba Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.74 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.99 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| Florent Hanin DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Amine Sbaï AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.76 |
| Himad Abdelli DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Prosper Peter FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.14 | 0.76 |
| Sidiki Chérif Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Jacques Ekomie Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lilian Raolisoa Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.23 |