Angers v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 12 December 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 7
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
1.28 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.95 – +0.73
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
43.4%
Draw
27.5%
Nantes win
29.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLDLLDDLW last 10
scored 9
from 12.3 xG
conceded 19
from 20.3 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.04 | 1-1 13% | 42% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 3.05 xGNantes 0.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 16' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 26' |
 Nantes |
Yassine Benhattab | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 34' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Angers |
Haris Belkebla | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Himad Abdelli |
| 38' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Himad Abdelli |
| 38' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 47' |
Nantes |
Fabien Centonze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 53' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 59' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Louis Mouton |
| 62' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 63' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 65' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sidiki Chérif |
| 70' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 71' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 73' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chidozie Awaziem |
| 76' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 80' |
Nantes |
Fabien Centonze | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mayckel Lahdo |
| 84' |
Angers |
Djibirin Harouna | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Courcoul |
| 84' |
Angers |
Djibirin Harouna | 0.45 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 84' |
Angers |
Himad Abdelli | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Nantes |
Junior Mwanga | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 89' |
Nantes |
Kelvin Adou | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Nantes |
Amady Camara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youssef El-Arabi |
| 93' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Himad Abdelli DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.04 | 0.96 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 1.13 |
| Amine Sbaï AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.69 |
| Sidiki Chérif FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.07 | 0.89 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lilian Raolisoa Sub | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Florent Hanin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabien Centonze DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kelvin Adou DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Junior Mwanga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Matthis Abline FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Deiver Machado ML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yassine Benhattab MR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mostafa Mohamed FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mayckel Lahdo Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Youssef El-Arabi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Amady Camara Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Bahmed Deuff Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |