Angers v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 17
On target
1 – 9
Shots in box
4 – 12
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.73
Goals − xG
-0.98 – -0.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
15.0%
Draw
23.1%
Paris Saint Germain win
61.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.78–1.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.69–2.36 | 0-2 13% | 59% | 45% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 0.98 xGParis Saint Germain 3.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacques Ekomie |
| 6' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Beraldo |
| 7' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 10' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 16' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Beraldo |
| 27' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Beraldo |
| 38' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Beraldo |
| 42' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Beraldo |
| 45' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Beraldo |
| 50' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 51' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Goal | Lee Kang-In |
| 59' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 61' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 67' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ibrahim Mbaye |
| 71' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 76' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 83' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ibrahim Mbaye | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 89' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ibrahim Mbaye | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 90' |
Angers |
Florent Hanin | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Angers |
Lanroy Machine | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 92' |
Angers |
Lanroy Machine | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Florent Hanin |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beraldo MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.58 | 1.10 | 1.51 |
| Lee Kang-In FWR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.72 | 1.46 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 1.09 |
| Senny Mayulu MC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.52 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.14 | 1.17 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Fabián MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| João Neves Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.50 |
| Dro Fernández Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| Nuno Mendes Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Branco van den Boomen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Emmanuel Biumla DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Haris Belkebla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierrick Capelle MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Prosper Peter FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Lilian Raolisoa DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Sbaï FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Florent Hanin Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Goduine Koyalipou Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Mouton Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Bané Diatta Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |