Angers v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Angers

1–2

1.87 – 2.37 xG

Rennes

Shots

20 – 17

On target

3 – 5

Shots in box

12 – 15

xG per shot

0.09 – 0.14

Set-piece xG

1.24 – 0.09

Goals − xG

-0.88 – -0.37

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 6 Sep, 07:53 · 7h before kick-off

Angers win

22.6%

model 23.6%

Draw

22.7%

model 24.4%

Rennes win

54.7%

model 52.0%

232355

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.6%
0-1 11.2%
1-2 9.6%
0-2 9.3%
1-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.5%	Under 2.5	49.5%
BTTS yes	52.2%	BTTS no	47.8%
Angers 1+	64.4%	Angers 2+	27.7%
Rennes 1+	81.0%	Rennes 2+	49.5%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

85/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Rennes (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 31%

51.8% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 897 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Angers to concede

Home clean sheet · usually 70%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 244 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Rennes carry the stronger rating, 1653 Elo against 1443.
Rennes have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Angers have allowed 2.02.
Away from home Rennes average 2.05 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Rennes have an estimated 54.7% win probability, against 22.7% for the draw and 22.6% for Angers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.03 for Angers and 1.66 for Rennes.

Why Angers

Angers have created 1.23 xG a match over their last five while Rennes have allowed 1.84. At home Angers average 0.99 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Rennes were missing 1.27 expected goal involvements a match against 0.57.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.7%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Rennes can win

Rennes carry the stronger rating, 1653 Elo against 1443. Rennes have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Angers have allowed 2.02. Away from home Rennes average 2.05 xG a match.

Key players

Angers's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Amine El Ouazzani (0.37), Amine Sbaï (0.31), Goduine Koyalipou (0.25). Rennes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Esteban Lepaul (0.58), Ronaldo (0.41), Timur Suleymanov (0.35).

Availability

1 of Angers's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Angers's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Rennes's top three contributors did not start their last match. Rennes changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Rennes's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Angers: 40% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.38 xG a match from set pieces. Rennes: 64% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.33 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Rennes are the model's most likely outcome at 54.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 85/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDDLWLDWLL last 10 scored 12 from 15.4 xG conceded 20 from 21.5 xG

Rennes have scored 20 from 21.3 expected and conceded 22 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWLDWWWLWL last 10 scored 20 from 21.3 xG conceded 22 from 23.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	242452	1.03–1.66	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	212653	1.03–1.74	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	262450	1.18–1.71	1-1 11%	55%	57%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	252451	1.14–1.71	1-1 11%	54%	56%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to win	43.7%	43.0%	31.3%	1.37×	2.32
Angers to win	32.5%	30.4%	46.0%	0.66×	3.29
Draw	23.8%	24.4%	22.8%	1.07×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes & both teams score	23.8%	21.9%	15.4%	1.42×	4.57
Rennes & not both score	19.9%	17.9%	16.1%	1.12×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	17.9%	16.4%	1.09×	5.58
Angers & both teams score	18.1%	17.9%	22.2%	0.81×	5.58
Angers & not both score	14.3%	13.3%	23.9%	0.55×	7.55
Draw & not both score	4.7%	4.9%	6.6%	0.74×	20.47

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes & over 1.5	35.9%	34.9%	25.2%	1.39×	2.86
Rennes & over 2.5	29.5%	26.0%	19.5%	1.33×	3.84
Rennes & under 3.5	26.8%	26.0%	20.5%	1.27×	3.84
Angers & over 1.5	25.9%	26.0%	36.1%	0.72×	3.84
Angers & over 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	28.5%	0.76×	4.62
Angers & under 3.5	21.0%	21.6%	29.1%	0.74×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Rennes & over 3.5	16.9%	18.0%	11.0%	1.63×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Rennes & under 2.5	14.2%	12.9%	12.0%	1.07×	7.77
Angers & over 3.5	11.5%	12.9%	17.0%	0.76×	7.78
Angers & under 2.5	11.2%	12.9%	17.6%	0.73×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	6.5%	1.22×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	8.2%	7.9%	6.5%	1.22×	12.69
Rennes & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.69
Angers & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	10.1%	0.78×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	4.7%	4.8%	6.6%	0.72×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (1UP)	61.1%	63.1%	49.1%	1.28×	1.59
Angers (1UP)	51.6%	52.7%	58.4%	0.90×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (2UP)	43.7%	47.7%	33.7%	1.42×	2.10
Angers (2UP)	32.5%	31.0%	47.6%	0.65×	3.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers to win 2nd half	39.2%	36.1%	42.5%	0.85×	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.5%	30.9%	1.12×	2.90
Rennes to win 2nd half	26.4%	26.2%	26.8%	0.98×	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (+2.5)	94.7%	92.1%	89.9%	1.02×	1.09
Rennes (+1.5)	85.3%	88.5%	74.8%	1.18×	1.13
Rennes (+0.5)	67.5%	68.7%	54.0%	1.27×	1.46
Angers (+0.5)	56.3%	57.0%	68.7%	0.83×	1.75
Rennes (-0.5)	43.7%	43.0%	31.3%	1.37×	2.33
Angers (-0.5)	32.5%	31.3%	46.0%	0.68×	3.20
Angers (-1.5)	14.7%	11.5%	25.2%	0.46×	8.68
Angers (-2.5)	5.3%	7.9%	10.1%	0.78×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede	75.4%	79.0%	77.5%	1.02×	1.27
Rennes clean sheet	24.6%	21.0%	22.5%	0.93×	4.75

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes clean sheet in 1st half	62.8%	64.8%	52.4%	1.24×	1.54
Rennes to concede in 1st half	37.2%	35.2%	47.6%	0.74×	2.84

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 3.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Rennes over 0.5 goals	81.0%	81.5%	69.6%	1.17×	1.23
Rennes under 2.5 goals	76.8%	76.2%	84.7%	0.90×	1.31
Rennes under 1.5 goals	50.6%	53.7%	63.5%	0.85×	1.86
Rennes over 1.5 goals	49.4%	46.3%	36.5%	1.27×	2.16
Rennes over 2.5 goals	23.2%	23.8%	15.3%	1.56×	4.20
Rennes under 0.5 goals	19.0%	18.5%	30.4%	0.61×	5.40
Rennes over 3.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	6.5%	1.19×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 1.5 in 1st half	75.4%	75.5%	87.6%	0.86×	1.33
Rennes over 0.5 in 1st half	61.3%	64.3%	42.4%	1.52×	1.55
Rennes under 0.5 in 1st half	38.7%	35.7%	57.6%	0.62×	2.81
Rennes over 1.5 in 1st half	24.6%	24.5%	12.4%	1.97×	4.08

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers (away no bet)	57.7%	57.5%	66.8%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.3%	42.5%	33.2%	1.28×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes even goals	51.8%	52.7%	56.4%	0.94×	1.90
Rennes odd goals	48.2%	47.3%	43.6%	1.08×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.8%	82.3%	83.2%	0.99×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.2%	17.7%	16.9%	1.05×	5.65

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.1%	66.7%	65.4%	1.02×	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.9%	33.3%	34.6%	0.96×	3.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.6%	59.5%	60.3%	0.99×	1.68
Rennes to score 2+ in a row	39.5%	36.4%	27.9%	1.31×	2.75
Angers to score 2+ in a row	30.6%	28.5%	38.4%	0.74×	3.52
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.3%	19.3%	22.7%	0.85×	5.17
Rennes to score 3+ in a row	14.5%	12.1%	9.1%	1.32×	8.30
Angers to score 3+ in a row	9.3%	5.6%	14.2%	0.40×	17.78

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.9%	11.5%	10.1%	1.14×	8.73
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.46
0-1	7.8%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.46
1-0	6.6%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.46
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.46
0-2	6.5%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.46
1-3	5.0%	7.4%	3.5%	2.14×	13.46
2-2	6.3%	7.4%	4.9%	1.52×	13.46
0-0	4.7%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.57
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.59
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.83×	58.59
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.59
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.42×	58.59
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.42×	58.59
Any other score	4.1%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.57
0-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.57
0-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.58
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.58
2-0	4.6%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.57
2-3	3.5%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.57
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.58
3-0	2.1%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.58
3-1	3.6%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.57
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.58
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.58
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes leading at HT (DNB)	72.5%	71.4%	46.3%	1.54×	1.40
Angers leading at HT (DNB)	27.5%	28.6%	53.7%	0.53×	3.49

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers or Rennes (12)	76.2%	75.6%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Rennes or draw (X2)	67.5%	69.6%	54.0%	1.29×	1.44
Angers or draw (1X)	56.3%	57.0%	68.7%	0.83×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes or draw at HT	82.5%	84.1%	66.9%	1.26×	1.19
Angers or Rennes at HT	63.7%	62.2%	61.4%	1.01×	1.61
Angers or draw at HT	53.8%	47.6%	71.5%	0.67×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes or draw (1UP)	67.5%	75.9%	61.9%	1.23×	1.32
Angers or draw (1UP)	56.3%	62.6%	72.9%	0.86×	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers or draw in 2nd half	73.6%	73.8%	73.2%	1.01×	1.36
Angers or Rennes in 2nd half	65.6%	65.5%	69.1%	0.95×	1.53
Rennes or draw in 2nd half	60.8%	63.9%	57.5%	1.11×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.2%	58.3%	56.5%	1.03×	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.8%	41.7%	43.5%	0.96×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (DNB)	57.4%	58.2%	40.5%	1.44×	1.72
Angers (DNB)	42.6%	41.8%	59.5%	0.70×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to score first	51.7%	54.1%	43.9%	1.23×	1.85
Angers to score first	43.6%	41.7%	49.6%	0.84×	2.40
No goal scored	4.7%	4.4%	6.6%	0.66×	22.82

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.0%	56.5%	53.7%	1.05×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.0%	43.5%	46.3%	0.94×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.1%	47.0%	43.8%	1.07×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	30.1%	34.4%	35.9%	0.96×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	10.9%	12.3%	10.1%	1.22×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.4%	10.6%	0.79×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.8%	80.1%	84.9%	0.94×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.2%	19.9%	15.1%	1.32×	5.03

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.1%	67.7%	70.1%	0.97×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.9%	32.3%	29.9%	1.08×	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.3%	56.2%	57.8%	0.97×	1.78
Both score 2nd half only	23.8%	21.2%	23.8%	0.89×	4.72
Both score 1st half only	15.8%	15.6%	12.4%	1.25×	6.42
Both score in both halves	7.0%	6.7%	6.3%	1.06×	14.94

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.2%	81.7%	81.4%	1.00×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	22.8%	18.3%	18.6%	0.99×	5.46

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.1%	58.9%	59.5%	0.99×	1.70
A half without a goal	38.9%	41.1%	40.5%	1.02×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.3%	42.1%	43.3%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.0%	30.7%	30.9%	0.99×	3.26
0-1 goals	19.0%	20.2%	22.7%	0.89×	4.94
7+ goals	3.7%	1.8%	3.5%	0.52×	55.05

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to score exactly 1	31.6%	33.9%	33.2%	1.02×	2.95
Rennes to score exactly 2	26.2%	27.4%	21.4%	1.28×	3.65
Rennes to score 3+	23.2%	22.4%	15.3%	1.47×	4.47
Rennes to score exactly 0	19.0%	19.6%	30.4%	0.64×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.7%	31.7%	1.03×	3.06
Angers to score exactly 0	24.6%	23.3%	22.5%	1.03×	4.30
Angers to score exactly 2	24.2%	23.3%	23.0%	1.01×	4.30
Angers to score 3+	16.7%	18.9%	23.2%	0.81×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes leading at HT	46.2%	52.4%	28.5%	1.84×	1.91
Draw at HT	36.3%	37.8%	38.6%	0.98×	2.65
Angers leading at HT	17.5%	15.9%	33.1%	0.48×	6.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes -1: 1	56.3%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Rennes -1: 2	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Rennes -1: X	21.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (0:1)	67.5%	65.5%	54.0%	1.21×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.8%	17.8%	20.9%	0.85×	5.62
Angers (0:1)	14.7%	13.9%	25.2%	0.55×	7.21

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (0:2)	85.3%	86.9%	74.8%	1.16×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.4%	7.7%	15.3%	0.51×	12.96
Angers (0:2)	5.3%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (0:3)	94.7%	92.7%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	6.1%	0.39×	41.97
Angers (0:3)	1.6%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.7%	0.45×	83.34
Angers (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.6%	0.76×	83.43

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers (1:0)	56.3%	58.1%	68.7%	0.85×	1.72
Rennes (1:0)	22.6%	21.7%	16.9%	1.29×	4.60
Draw (1:0)	21.1%	21.7%	14.6%	1.48×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers (2:0)	77.4%	80.4%	83.2%	0.97×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	13.2%	10.4%	9.9%	1.05×	9.61
Rennes (2:0)	9.5%	6.5%	7.1%	0.91×	15.46

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.1%	46.3%	47.2%	0.98×	2.16
1st half highest scoring	33.1%	30.6%	26.6%	1.15×	3.27
Halves equal	23.9%	24.3%	26.3%	0.92×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers to concede	81.0%	80.7%	69.6%	1.16×	1.24
Angers clean sheet	19.0%	19.3%	30.4%	0.63×	5.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers to concede in 1st half	61.3%	64.4%	42.4%	1.52×	1.55
Angers clean sheet in 1st half	38.7%	35.6%	57.6%	0.62×	2.81

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers under 3.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	91.7%	1.01×	1.08
Angers under 2.5 goals	83.3%	82.2%	76.9%	1.07×	1.22
Angers over 0.5 goals	75.4%	77.7%	77.5%	1.00×	1.29
Angers under 1.5 goals	59.1%	58.8%	54.0%	1.09×	1.70
Angers over 1.5 goals	40.9%	41.2%	46.0%	0.90×	2.43
Angers under 0.5 goals	24.6%	22.3%	22.5%	0.99×	4.48
Angers over 2.5 goals	16.7%	17.9%	23.2%	0.77×	5.60
Angers over 3.5 goals	5.4%	7.7%	8.3%	0.93×	12.91

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers under 1.5 in 1st half	92.0%	95.5%	87.2%	1.09×	1.05
Angers under 0.5 in 1st half	62.8%	64.6%	52.4%	1.23×	1.55
Angers over 0.5 in 1st half	37.2%	35.4%	47.6%	0.74×	2.83
Angers over 1.5 in 1st half	8.0%	4.5%	12.8%	0.36×	22.08

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (home no bet)	64.7%	60.2%	57.8%	1.04×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	35.3%	39.8%	42.2%	0.94×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers even goals	53.0%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.97
Angers odd goals	47.0%	49.4%	48.7%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.3%	24.3%	28.7%	0.85×	4.12
HT 0-1	23.1%	24.2%	16.9%	1.44×	4.13
HT 1-0	11.3%	11.0%	21.3%	0.52×	9.06
HT 0-2	11.0%	11.0%	5.5%	2.00×	9.06
HT 1-1	10.7%	11.0%	9.4%	1.17×	9.06
Any other HT score	8.2%	7.1%	4.7%	1.50×	14.09
HT 1-2	5.1%	7.1%	4.1%	1.73×	14.14
HT 2-0	2.6%	2.2%	6.6%	0.34×	44.73
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.2%	3.3%	0.68×	44.74
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.2%	0.8%	2.83×	44.85

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes at HT / Rennes at FT	33.0%	32.3%	18.9%	1.71×	3.10
Draw at HT / Angers at FT	14.2%	12.7%	15.0%	0.85×	7.88
Angers at HT / Angers at FT	13.6%	12.7%	27.7%	0.46×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.5%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.90
Draw at HT / Rennes at FT	9.6%	6.1%	11.0%	0.55×	16.51
Rennes at HT / Draw at FT	8.5%	6.0%	6.3%	0.96×	16.54
Rennes at HT / Angers at FT	4.7%	3.4%	3.6%	0.95×	29.10
Angers at HT / Draw at FT	2.8%	3.4%	3.9%	0.87×	29.17
Angers at HT / Rennes at FT	1.1%	3.4%	1.7%	1.97×	29.24

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to score last	51.7%	51.8%	40.5%	1.28×	1.93
Angers to score last	43.6%	40.2%	53.1%	0.76×	2.49
No goal scored	4.7%	4.4%	6.6%	0.66×	22.82

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.3%	95.5%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Rennes to lead by 1 at any time	61.1%	61.4%	49.1%	1.25×	1.63
Angers to lead by 1 at any time	51.6%	50.5%	58.4%	0.87×	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.1%	50.5%	51.3%	0.98×	1.98
Rennes to lead by 2 at any time	30.1%	29.4%	21.7%	1.35×	3.41
Angers to lead by 2 at any time	21.4%	19.6%	29.8%	0.66×	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.3%	15.0%	20.2%	0.74×	6.68
Rennes to lead by 3 at any time	12.1%	10.4%	8.3%	1.25×	9.57
Angers to lead by 3 at any time	7.3%	6.5%	12.0%	0.54×	15.33

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	87.4%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.3%	78.6%	74.0%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.8%	78.6%	76.5%	1.03×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.0%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.5%	60.5%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.7%	59.2%	59.4%	1.00×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.4%	59.2%	50.9%	1.16×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.0%	53.1%	45.8%	1.16×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.3%	43.6%	43.3%	1.01×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.5%	39.2%	37.3%	1.05×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.3%	39.2%	39.4%	0.99×	2.55
4-6 goals	33.0%	35.4%	30.9%	1.15×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.6%	30.2%	25.8%	1.17×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.8%	18.6%	13.7%	1.36×	5.38
7+ goals	3.7%	2.5%	3.5%	0.73×	39.41

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes never behind	43.7%	48.3%	41.6%	1.16×	2.07
Angers never behind	34.2%	35.5%	50.9%	0.70×	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	52.9%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.9%	51.5%	51.8%	0.99×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.1%	48.5%	48.2%	1.01×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	52.0%	49.3%	1.06×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.0%	50.7%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.3%	95.5%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.0%	92.3%	91.5%	1.01×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.0%	82.4%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	80.5%	82.4%	83.0%	0.99×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	63.4%	61.8%	65.8%	0.94×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.0%	58.8%	54.2%	1.09×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.0%	41.2%	45.8%	0.90×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	36.6%	38.2%	34.2%	1.12×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	19.5%	17.7%	17.0%	1.04×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	19.0%	17.6%	22.7%	0.78×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	9.0%	7.7%	8.5%	0.91×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	4.7%	4.5%	6.6%	0.68×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.1%	97.2%	96.4%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.9%	86.8%	90.7%	0.96×	1.15
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.5%	75.9%	79.5%	0.96×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.6%	75.9%	70.5%	1.08×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.8%	51.8%	57.3%	0.90×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.2%	48.2%	42.7%	1.13×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.4%	24.1%	29.5%	0.82×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.5%	24.1%	20.5%	1.17×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.1%	13.3%	9.3%	1.43×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.9%	2.8%	3.6%	0.75×	36.33

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.0%	86.5%	87.6%	0.99×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.7%	78.6%	71.3%	1.10×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	58.7%	64.0%	66.5%	0.96×	1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half	41.3%	36.0%	33.5%	1.07×	2.78
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.3%	21.4%	28.7%	0.75×	4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.0%	13.5%	12.4%	1.09×	7.38

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	82.9%	81.6%	1.02×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.2%	79.9%	75.3%	1.06×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.0%	53.0%	51.3%	1.03×	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.0%	47.0%	48.7%	0.97×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.8%	20.1%	24.7%	0.81×	4.98
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	17.1%	18.4%	0.93×	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers not to score in both halves	77.4%	78.4%	68.0%	1.15×	1.28
Rennes not to score in both halves	68.8%	70.1%	77.6%	0.90×	1.43
Rennes to score in both halves	31.2%	29.9%	22.4%	1.34×	3.35
Angers to score in both halves	22.6%	21.6%	32.0%	0.68×	4.63

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.0%	60.2%	53.7%	1.12×	1.66
Only Rennes scores	19.9%	16.1%	16.1%	1.00×	6.20
Only Angers scores	14.3%	11.0%	23.9%	0.46×	9.13
Neither team scores	4.7%	4.6%	6.6%	0.70×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	20.2%	1.12×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	21.9%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.1%	17.5%	17.3%	1.01×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.3%	12.1%	16.2%	0.74×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	10.5%	12.1%	8.7%	1.39×	8.29
6 or more goals	9.0%	7.6%	8.5%	0.90×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.7%	4.4%	6.6%	0.67×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.0%	44.9%	48.7%	0.92×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.7%	33.8%	33.1%	1.02×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.3%	17.0%	18.4%	0.92×	5.90

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers not to win both halves	93.1%	94.0%	83.2%	1.13×	1.06
Rennes not to win both halves	87.8%	88.1%	90.7%	0.97×	1.14
Rennes to win both halves	12.2%	11.9%	9.3%	1.28×	8.39
Angers to win both halves	6.9%	6.0%	16.9%	0.36×	16.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to win either half	60.4%	65.3%	46.0%	1.42×	1.53
Angers to win neither half	50.1%	54.7%	41.3%	1.33×	1.83
Angers to win either half	49.9%	45.3%	58.7%	0.77×	2.21
Rennes to win neither half	39.6%	34.7%	54.0%	0.64×	2.88

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers not to win to nil	85.7%	88.2%	76.1%	1.16×	1.13
Rennes not to win to nil	80.1%	83.0%	83.9%	0.99×	1.21
Rennes to win to nil	19.9%	17.0%	16.1%	1.06×	5.87
Angers to win to nil	14.3%	11.8%	23.9%	0.49×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.8%	24.1%	22.8%	1.06×	4.14
Rennes by 1	21.1%	24.1%	14.6%	1.65×	4.14
Angers by 1	17.8%	16.9%	20.9%	0.81×	5.90
Rennes by 2	13.2%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.46
Angers by 2	9.4%	7.2%	15.3%	0.47×	13.80
Rennes by 3+	9.5%	7.2%	7.1%	1.02×	13.79
Angers by 3+	5.3%	7.2%	10.1%	0.72×	13.81

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Angers 1.88 xGRennes 2.37 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Angers attacking right Rennes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
0'	Angers	Jim Allevinah	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Amine Sbaï
2'	Angers	Ousmane Camara	0.08	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Branco van den Boomen
4'	Rennes	Esteban Lepaul	0.77	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Mousa Al Tamari
8'	Rennes	Przemyslaw Frankowski	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Sebastian Szymanski
12'	Rennes	Mahdi Camara	0.03	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Ludovic Blas
16'	Angers	Jordan Lefort	0.00	Open Play	Right Foot	Own Goal	—
17'	Angers	Amine El Ouazzani	0.22	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Branco van den Boomen
17'	Angers	Amine Sbaï	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
19'	Angers	Anthony Bermont	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Jim Allevinah
19'	Angers	Anthony Bermont	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
20'	Rennes	Sebastian Szymanski	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Ludovic Blas
22'	Rennes	Ludovic Blas	0.35	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Quentin Merlin
30'	Rennes	Esteban Lepaul	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Quentin Merlin
33'	Angers	Amine El Ouazzani	0.14	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Jim Allevinah
34'	Angers	Carlens Arcus	0.08	From Corner	—	Goal	Branco van den Boomen
36'	Angers	Amine Sbaï	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
43'	Rennes	Mahdi Camara	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Mousa Al Tamari
46'	Angers	Amine El Ouazzani	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Yassin Belkhdim
46'	Angers	Branco van den Boomen	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
46'	Angers	Yassin Belkhdim	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Carlens Arcus
48'	Rennes	Esteban Lepaul	0.30	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Valentin Rongier
50'	Rennes	Ludovic Blas	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Mousa Al Tamari
54'	Angers	Carlens Arcus	0.06	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
55'	Rennes	Ludovic Blas	0.24	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Mahdi Camara
56'	Rennes	Anthony Rouault	0.02	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Sebastian Szymanski
57'	Rennes	Esteban Lepaul	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Valentin Rongier
71'	Angers	Amine Sbaï	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Branco van den Boomen
71'	Angers	Branco van den Boomen	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Amine Sbaï
77'	Rennes	Eliezer Mayenda	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Mahdi Camara
78'	Rennes	Esteban Lepaul	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Przemyslaw Frankowski
79'	Rennes	Eliezer Mayenda	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Adrien Thomasson
80'	Rennes	Esteban Lepaul	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
86'	Rennes	Issa Soumaré	0.02	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Adrien Thomasson
87'	Angers	Mamadou Simbakoli	0.19	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Branco van den Boomen
92'	Angers	Joseph Kalulu	0.02	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
92'	Angers	Mamadou Simbakoli	0.59	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	—
93'	Angers	Mamadou Simbakoli	0.06	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Jordan Lefort

Players

Angers

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Ousmane Camara DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.04
Yassin Belkhdim DMC	90	0	0	1	1	0.03	0.05	0.16
Branco van den Boomen DMC	90	0	1	2	5	0.03	0.61	0.13
Joseph Kalulu DL	90	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.22
Anthony Lopes GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jordan Lefort DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.08
Carlens Arcus DR	87	1	0	2	1	0.15	0.03	0.09
Amine Sbaï AMC	87	0	0	3	2	0.10	0.06	0.16
Amine El Ouazzani FW	80	0	0	3	0	0.40	0.00	0.25
Jim Allevinah AMR	80	0	0	1	2	0.04	0.20	0.24
Anthony Bermont AML	50	0	0	2	0	0.19	0.00	0.19
Bané Diatta Sub	40	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Prosper Peter Sub	10	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Djibirin Harouna Sub	10	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mamadou Simbakoli Sub	3	0	0	3	0	0.84	0.00	0.06
Lilian Raolisoa Sub	3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Rennes

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Esteban Lepaul FW	90	0	0	6	0	1.29	0.00	1.44
Mahdi Camara MC	90	0	0	2	2	0.13	0.31	1.34
Przemyslaw Frankowski DR	90	1	0	1	1	0.06	0.06	1.97
Anthony Rouault DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.91
Charlie Cresswell DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.83
Brice Samba GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.57
Valentin Rongier DMC	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.32	1.16
Ludovic Blas MR	81	0	0	3	3	0.67	0.07	1.91
Sebastian Szymanski MC	81	0	1	1	2	0.04	0.08	1.60
Mousa Al Tamari ML	72	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.95	1.69
Quentin Merlin DL	72	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.45	0.97
Issa Soumaré Sub	18	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.06
Mahamadou Nagida Sub	18	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.06
Eliezer Mayenda Sub	9	0	0	2	0	0.14	0.00	0.14
Adrien Thomasson Sub	9	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.08	0.14
Boulaye Dia Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Angers v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Angers

Why the draw is live

Why Rennes can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Angers

Rennes

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