Angers v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.89
Goals − xG
+0.21 – -0.82
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
24.3%
Draw
28.1%
Strasbourg win
47.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWLDWWLWW last 10
scored 23
from 17.3 xG
conceded 21
from 20.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.92–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.04–1.61 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 0.79 xGStrasbourg 1.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 8' |
 Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Guela Doué |
| 12' |
Strasbourg |
Yaya Diémé | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Martial Godo |
| 14' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mathis Amougou |
| 17' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Louãr |
| 26' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mathis Amougou |
| 31' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Guela Doué |
| 45' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 47' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 47' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Guela Doué |
| 49' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 50' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Lefort |
| 50' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Guela Doué |
| 60' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Guela Doué |
| 61' |
Angers |
Branco van den Boomen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 65' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martial Godo |
| 67' |
Angers |
Pierrick Capelle | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 68' |
Angers |
Ousmane Camara | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Lanroy Machine |
| 69' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pierrick Capelle |
| 70' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 75' |
Angers |
Lanroy Machine | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Martial Godo |
| 92' |
Angers |
Emmanuel Biumla | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lanroy Machine |
| 95' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martial Godo |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lilian Raolisoa DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Pierrick Capelle MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Jacques Ekomie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Branco van den Boomen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| Marius Louãr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Haris Belkebla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Prosper Peter FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Goduine Koyalipou Sub | 39 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.40 |
| Emmanuel Biumla Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florent Hanin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Enciso AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 1.43 | 0.08 | 0.80 |
| Martial Godo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Guela Doué DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.68 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yaya Diémé FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mathis Amougou DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Maxi Oyedele DMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rafael Luís Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Gessime Yassine Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrese Noubissie Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jean-Baptiste Bosey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |