Angers v Troyes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Angers

13:00 UTC

Troyes

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 293h before kick-off

Angers win

28.4%

model 31.9%

Draw

27.6%

model 28.0%

Troyes win

44.0%

model 40.2%

282844

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.1%
0-1 12.1%
1-0 10.5%
0-0 9.6%
1-2 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	41.5%	Under 2.5	58.5%
BTTS yes	47.3%	BTTS no	52.7%
Angers 1+	66.2%	Angers 2+	29.5%
Troyes 1+	71.5%	Troyes 2+	35.7%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.26. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

A half without a goal

Goal in both halves · usually 41%

54.4% fair odds 1.84

strong signal · 1035 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Angers not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 68%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Troyes carry the stronger rating, 1596 Elo against 1433.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Angers were missing 0.55 expected goal involvements a match against 0.25.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Troyes have an estimated 44.0% win probability, against 28.4% for Angers and 27.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.08 for Angers and 1.25 for Troyes.

Why Angers

At home Angers average 1.29 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.6%. A combined 2.34 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.08 to 1.25. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Troyes can win

Troyes carry the stronger rating, 1596 Elo against 1433. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Angers were missing 0.55 expected goal involvements a match against 0.25.

Key players

Angers's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Amine El Ouazzani (0.37), Amine Sbaï (0.31), Goduine Koyalipou (0.25). Troyes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Renaud Ripart (0.39), Kandet Diawara (0.21), Antoine Mille (0.21).

Availability

1 of Angers's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Angers's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Troyes's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Angers: 43% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.56 xG a match from set pieces. Troyes: 46% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Troyes are the model's most likely outcome at 44.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLDLLDDLWL last 10 scored 9 from 13.0 xG conceded 16 from 18.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	322840	1.09–1.26	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392437	1.54–1.48	1-1 11%	58%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to win	36.4%	36.4%	31.8%	1.14×	2.75
Angers to win	35.1%	36.4%	45.6%	0.80×	2.75
Draw	28.6%	27.9%	22.8%	1.22×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes & not both score	22.2%	21.9%	16.1%	1.36×	4.57
Angers & not both score	21.4%	21.9%	23.7%	0.92×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.3%	17.9%	16.4%	1.09×	5.58
Troyes & both teams score	14.1%	13.3%	15.9%	0.83×	7.54
Angers & both teams score	13.7%	13.3%	22.0%	0.60×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.3%	13.2%	6.6%	2.02×	7.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes & under 3.5	28.9%	26.0%	20.7%	1.26×	3.84
Angers & under 3.5	28.0%	26.0%	28.9%	0.90×	3.84
Troyes & over 1.5	24.5%	21.7%	25.6%	0.85×	4.62
Angers & over 1.5	23.5%	21.7%	35.7%	0.61×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	23.6%	21.7%	16.5%	1.31×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	23.6%	21.7%	16.5%	1.31×	4.62
Troyes & under 2.5	18.7%	18.0%	12.0%	1.50×	5.56
Angers & under 2.5	18.1%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.3%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Troyes & over 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Angers & over 2.5	17.0%	18.0%	28.2%	0.64×	5.56
Angers & under 1.5	11.6%	12.9%	10.0%	1.29×	7.77
Troyes & under 1.5	11.9%	12.9%	6.4%	2.01×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	10.3%	12.9%	6.6%	1.96×	7.77
Troyes & over 3.5	7.4%	7.9%	11.2%	0.70×	12.70
Angers & over 3.5	7.1%	7.9%	16.8%	0.47×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.0%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	5.0%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (1UP)	50.9%	52.7%	49.6%	1.06×	1.90
Angers (1UP)	49.7%	43.4%	58.0%	0.75×	2.30

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (2UP)	36.4%	37.1%	34.2%	1.09×	2.70
Angers (2UP)	35.1%	37.0%	47.1%	0.79×	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers to win 2nd half	40.8%	41.0%	42.1%	0.97×	2.44
2nd half drawn	40.4%	41.0%	31.2%	1.31×	2.44
Troyes to win 2nd half	18.8%	19.1%	26.8%	0.71×	5.23

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (+2.5)	95.6%	96.3%	90.0%	1.07×	1.04
Troyes (+1.5)	85.8%	88.5%	75.0%	1.18×	1.13
Troyes (+0.5)	64.9%	62.9%	54.4%	1.16×	1.59
Angers (+0.5)	63.6%	62.9%	68.2%	0.92×	1.59
Troyes (-0.5)	36.4%	37.1%	31.8%	1.17×	2.70
Angers (-0.5)	35.1%	37.1%	45.6%	0.81×	2.70
Angers (-1.5)	14.2%	11.5%	25.0%	0.46×	8.70
Angers (-2.5)	4.4%	3.7%	10.0%	0.37×	26.79

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to concede	67.4%	72.5%	77.5%	0.94×	1.38
Troyes clean sheet	32.6%	27.5%	22.5%	1.22×	3.64

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes clean sheet in 1st half	71.6%	77.4%	52.3%	1.48×	1.29
Troyes to concede in 1st half	28.4%	22.6%	47.7%	0.47×	4.43

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 6.5 corners	78.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Troyes over 2.5 corners	74.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Troyes under 5.5 corners	68.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Troyes over 3.5 corners	58.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Troyes under 4.5 corners	56.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Troyes over 4.5 corners	43.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Troyes under 3.5 corners	41.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Troyes over 5.5 corners	31.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Troyes under 2.5 corners	25.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Troyes over 6.5 corners	21.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 3.5 goals	97.1%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Troyes under 2.5 goals	89.0%	87.9%	84.6%	1.04×	1.14
Troyes over 0.5 goals	68.3%	68.0%	69.9%	0.97×	1.47
Troyes under 1.5 goals	68.1%	68.0%	63.2%	1.08×	1.47
Troyes over 1.5 goals	31.9%	32.0%	36.8%	0.87×	3.12
Troyes under 0.5 goals	31.7%	32.0%	30.1%	1.06×	3.12
Troyes over 2.5 goals	11.0%	12.1%	15.4%	0.78×	8.26
Troyes over 3.5 goals	2.9%	2.5%	6.6%	0.37×	40.72

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 1.5 in 1st half	84.0%	83.1%	87.2%	0.95×	1.20
Troyes over 0.5 in 1st half	50.9%	55.6%	42.7%	1.30×	1.80
Troyes under 0.5 in 1st half	49.1%	44.4%	57.3%	0.78×	2.25
Troyes over 1.5 in 1st half	16.0%	16.9%	12.8%	1.32×	5.93

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers (away no bet)	55.1%	57.4%	66.7%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.9%	42.6%	33.3%	1.28×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes even goals	55.0%	56.8%	56.3%	1.01×	1.76
Troyes odd goals	45.0%	43.2%	43.7%	0.99×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.3%	92.2%	83.0%	1.11×	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.7%	7.9%	17.0%	0.46×	12.74

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	53.0%	50.4%	65.5%	0.77×	1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals	47.0%	49.6%	34.5%	1.44×	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	46.1%	45.8%	60.2%	0.76×	2.19
Troyes to score 2+ in a row	25.5%	25.0%	28.1%	0.89×	4.00
Angers to score 2+ in a row	24.5%	19.5%	38.1%	0.51×	5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.7%	12.2%	22.6%	0.54×	8.21
Troyes to score 3+ in a row	7.1%	5.6%	9.2%	0.61×	17.76
Angers to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.6%	14.0%	0.40×	17.79

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes corners (+3.5)	85.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Angers corners (+3.5)	80.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Troyes corners (+2.5)	78.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Angers corners (+2.5)	72.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Troyes corners (+1.5)	69.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Angers corners (+1.5)	63.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Troyes corners (-1.5)	36.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Angers corners (-1.5)	30.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Troyes corners (-2.5)	27.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Angers corners (-2.5)	21.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Troyes corners (-3.5)	19.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Angers corners (-3.5)	14.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.7%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	21.2%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	71.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	37.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	28.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 11.5 corners	21.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	15.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.3%	11.5%	10.1%	1.13×	8.73
0-1	11.9%	11.5%	6.4%	1.79×	8.73
1-0	11.6%	11.5%	10.0%	1.15×	8.73
0-0	10.3%	11.5%	6.6%	1.75×	8.73
0-2	6.8%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.48
1-2	7.6%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
2-0	6.5%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.48
2-1	7.5%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.48
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.47
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.47
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.35×	58.47
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.48
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
3-0	2.4%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.48
3-1	2.8%	1.7%	6.2%	0.27×	58.47
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.48
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.49
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.49
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
Any other score	1.2%	1.7%	5.1%	0.33×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes leading at HT (DNB)	72.2%	72.3%	46.8%	1.54×	1.38
Angers leading at HT (DNB)	27.8%	27.7%	53.2%	0.52×	3.61

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers or Troyes (12)	71.4%	72.1%	77.2%	0.93×	1.39
Troyes or draw (X2)	64.9%	63.6%	54.4%	1.17×	1.57
Angers or draw (1X)	63.6%	63.6%	68.2%	0.93×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes or draw at HT	84.4%	84.5%	67.2%	1.26×	1.18
Angers or draw at HT	59.6%	57.0%	71.1%	0.80×	1.75
Angers or Troyes at HT	56.0%	56.9%	61.5%	0.93×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes or draw (1UP)	64.9%	71.9%	62.2%	1.16×	1.39
Angers or draw (1UP)	63.6%	71.8%	72.5%	0.99×	1.39

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers or draw in 2nd half	81.2%	80.9%	73.2%	1.11×	1.24
Angers or Troyes in 2nd half	59.6%	59.0%	68.8%	0.86×	1.70
Troyes or draw in 2nd half	59.2%	59.0%	57.9%	1.02×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.6%	69.3%	56.8%	1.22×	1.44
Neither half drawn	33.4%	30.7%	43.2%	0.71×	3.26

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (DNB)	50.9%	51.0%	41.1%	1.24×	1.96
Angers (DNB)	49.1%	49.0%	58.9%	0.83×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to score first	45.4%	45.5%	44.3%	1.03×	2.20
Angers to score first	44.3%	41.9%	49.3%	0.85×	2.39
No goal scored	10.3%	9.5%	6.6%	1.45×	10.55

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.9%	51.4%	46.0%	1.12×	1.95
Both teams to score	46.1%	48.6%	54.0%	0.90×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	47.1%	44.3%	35.7%	1.24×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	32.7%	34.3%	44.0%	0.78×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	13.3%	12.3%	10.1%	1.22×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	6.9%	8.4%	10.5%	0.80×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.2%	89.1%	84.7%	1.05×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.8%	10.9%	15.3%	0.71×	9.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.7%	72.8%	69.9%	1.04×	1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half	19.3%	27.2%	30.1%	0.90×	3.67

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	69.0%	62.6%	57.4%	1.09×	1.60
Both score 2nd half only	16.5%	15.6%	23.7%	0.66×	6.41
Both score 1st half only	11.7%	10.7%	12.6%	0.85×	9.34
Both score in both halves	2.8%	5.0%	6.6%	0.76×	20.18

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.5%	86.0%	81.0%	1.06×	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	14.5%	14.0%	19.0%	0.74×	7.14

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	54.2%	53.4%	40.6%	1.32×	1.87
A goal in each half	45.8%	46.6%	59.4%	0.78×	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.4%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
0-1 goals	33.8%	30.8%	22.6%	1.36×	3.25
4-6 goals	18.6%	20.2%	30.7%	0.66×	4.96
7+ goals	0.9%	1.8%	3.6%	0.51×	54.72

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
Troyes to score exactly 0	31.7%	33.8%	30.1%	1.12×	2.96
Troyes to score exactly 2	20.9%	22.4%	21.5%	1.04×	4.46
Troyes to score 3+	11.0%	12.8%	15.4%	0.83×	7.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.6%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
Angers to score exactly 0	32.6%	32.7%	22.5%	1.45×	3.06
Angers to score exactly 2	20.5%	23.2%	23.1%	1.01×	4.31
Angers to score 3+	10.4%	14.3%	22.9%	0.62×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.0%	43.1%	38.5%	1.12×	2.32
Troyes leading at HT	40.4%	43.0%	28.9%	1.49×	2.33
Angers leading at HT	15.6%	15.5%	32.8%	0.47×	6.47

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes -1: 1	63.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Troyes -1: X	21.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Troyes -1: 2	15.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (0:1)	64.9%	61.6%	54.4%	1.13×	1.62
Draw (0:1)	20.8%	24.3%	20.7%	1.17×	4.12
Angers (0:1)	14.2%	13.9%	25.0%	0.56×	7.22

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (0:2)	85.8%	86.9%	75.0%	1.16×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.8%	7.7%	15.1%	0.51×	12.93
Angers (0:2)	4.4%	3.8%	10.0%	0.38×	26.50

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (0:3)	95.6%	96.6%	90.0%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	6.1%	0.39×	42.13
Angers (0:3)	1.1%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (0:4)	98.9%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	2.7%	0.45×	83.65
Angers (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.6%	0.77×	83.73

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers (1:0)	63.6%	65.0%	68.2%	0.95×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	21.3%	21.8%	15.1%	1.44×	4.59
Troyes (1:0)	15.0%	17.0%	16.8%	1.01×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers (2:0)	85.0%	84.6%	83.2%	1.02×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.2%	10.4%	9.8%	1.05×	9.66
Troyes (2:0)	4.8%	2.3%	7.2%	0.32×	44.08

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	40.2%	47.6%	47.3%	1.01×	2.10
1st half highest scoring	31.4%	29.3%	26.8%	1.09×	3.41
Halves equal	28.4%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers to concede	68.3%	66.5%	69.9%	0.95×	1.50
Angers clean sheet	31.7%	33.5%	30.1%	1.11×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers to concede in 1st half	50.9%	55.6%	42.7%	1.30×	1.80
Angers clean sheet in 1st half	49.1%	44.4%	57.3%	0.78×	2.25

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers under 6.5 corners	82.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Angers under 5.5 corners	73.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Angers over 2.5 corners	70.6%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Angers under 4.5 corners	61.0%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Angers over 3.5 corners	54.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Angers under 3.5 corners	45.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Angers over 4.5 corners	39.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Angers under 2.5 corners	29.4%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Angers over 5.5 corners	26.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Angers over 6.5 corners	17.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers under 3.5 goals	97.3%	96.4%	91.7%	1.05×	1.04
Angers under 2.5 goals	89.6%	87.3%	77.1%	1.13×	1.15
Angers under 1.5 goals	69.1%	67.9%	54.1%	1.25×	1.47
Angers over 0.5 goals	67.4%	67.9%	77.5%	0.88×	1.47
Angers under 0.5 goals	32.6%	32.1%	22.5%	1.43×	3.11
Angers over 1.5 goals	30.9%	32.1%	45.9%	0.70×	3.11
Angers over 2.5 goals	10.4%	12.7%	22.9%	0.56×	7.86
Angers over 3.5 goals	2.7%	3.6%	8.3%	0.44×	27.50

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers under 1.5 in 1st half	95.5%	96.9%	87.4%	1.11×	1.03
Angers under 0.5 in 1st half	71.6%	79.7%	52.3%	1.53×	1.25
Angers over 0.5 in 1st half	28.4%	20.3%	47.7%	0.42×	4.94
Angers over 1.5 in 1st half	4.5%	3.1%	12.6%	0.25×	32.18

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (home no bet)	56.0%	56.7%	58.3%	0.97×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	44.0%	43.3%	41.7%	1.04×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers even goals	55.3%	55.4%	51.3%	1.08×	1.81
Angers odd goals	44.7%	44.6%	48.7%	0.92×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.1%	38.4%	28.5%	1.35×	2.60
HT 0-1	25.0%	28.8%	16.8%	1.71×	3.48
HT 1-0	11.7%	10.9%	21.1%	0.52×	9.16
HT 0-2	8.9%	7.1%	5.5%	1.31×	14.00
HT 1-1	8.4%	7.1%	9.5%	0.75×	14.01
Any other HT score	4.0%	2.3%	4.7%	0.49×	43.41
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.49
HT 2-0	2.0%	2.3%	6.6%	0.35×	43.56
HT 2-1	1.4%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	43.60
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.3%	0.8%	2.94×	43.67

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes at HT / Troyes at FT	27.6%	27.0%	19.3%	1.40×	3.70
Draw at HT / Angers at FT	17.9%	16.8%	14.8%	1.13×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.8%	16.8%	12.9%	1.29×	5.97
Angers at HT / Angers at FT	13.0%	12.7%	27.5%	0.46×	7.89
Troyes at HT / Draw at FT	8.7%	6.0%	6.2%	0.96×	16.62
Draw at HT / Troyes at FT	8.3%	6.0%	11.1%	0.54×	16.64
Troyes at HT / Angers at FT	4.1%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.76
Angers at HT / Draw at FT	2.1%	3.5%	3.9%	0.89×	28.84
Angers at HT / Troyes at FT	0.5%	3.5%	1.7%	2.02×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to score last	45.4%	46.6%	40.4%	1.15×	2.15
Angers to score last	44.3%	40.2%	53.2%	0.75×	2.49
No goal scored	10.3%	8.9%	6.6%	1.35×	11.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.7%	91.0%	93.4%	0.97×	1.10
Troyes to lead by 1 at any time	50.9%	50.7%	49.6%	1.02×	1.97
Angers to lead by 1 at any time	49.7%	44.0%	58.0%	0.76×	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.4%	34.9%	51.3%	0.68×	2.87
Troyes to lead by 2 at any time	19.7%	14.9%	22.0%	0.68×	6.70
Angers to lead by 2 at any time	18.8%	14.9%	29.5%	0.51×	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.5%	10.4%	20.1%	0.52×	9.58
Troyes to lead by 3 at any time	6.0%	6.6%	8.4%	0.78×	15.17
Angers to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	6.6%	11.9%	0.56×	15.19

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes most corners	47.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Angers most corners	41.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.8%	87.4%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.6%	83.5%	76.4%	1.09×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.2%	72.4%	59.4%	1.22×	1.38
2-6 goals	65.4%	68.9%	73.9%	0.93×	1.45
2-5 goals	63.4%	63.4%	69.0%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.2%	59.2%	60.4%	0.98×	1.69
1-2 goals	50.1%	53.2%	39.3%	1.35×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.7%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06
3-6 goals	38.7%	39.1%	50.9%	0.77×	2.55
3-5 goals	36.8%	39.1%	45.9%	0.85×	2.56
3-4 goals	31.6%	35.4%	37.3%	0.95×	2.83
4-6 goals	18.6%	18.6%	30.7%	0.61×	5.36
4-5 goals	16.6%	18.6%	25.7%	0.72×	5.37
5-6 goals	7.2%	8.7%	13.7%	0.64×	11.45
7+ goals	0.9%	2.5%	3.6%	0.71×	39.31

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes never behind	39.9%	44.7%	42.0%	1.07×	2.24
Angers never behind	38.8%	44.7%	50.4%	0.89×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.5%	50.8%	47.3%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.5%	49.2%	52.7%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	57.4%	51.6%	1.11×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	42.6%	48.4%	0.88×	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.3%	52.1%	49.5%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.7%	47.9%	50.5%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.2%	95.5%	91.4%	1.04×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	82.8%	1.11×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.7%	87.7%	93.4%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	80.5%	82.4%	65.8%	1.25×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	66.2%	66.2%	77.4%	0.86×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	60.4%	61.7%	45.7%	1.35×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	39.6%	38.3%	54.3%	0.70×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	33.8%	33.8%	22.6%	1.49×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	19.5%	17.6%	34.2%	0.52×	5.67
Under 0.5 goals	10.3%	12.3%	6.6%	1.88×	8.10
Over 4.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	17.2%	0.45×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	2.8%	4.5%	8.6%	0.52×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.1%	97.2%	96.2%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.0%	97.2%	90.6%	1.07×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.9%	92.5%	79.3%	1.17×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	75.6%	75.9%	57.2%	1.33×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	54.0%	51.8%	70.6%	0.73×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	46.0%	48.2%	29.4%	1.64×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	24.4%	24.1%	42.8%	0.56×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.1%	7.5%	20.7%	0.36×	13.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.0%	2.8%	9.4%	0.29×	36.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.8%	3.8%	0.73×	36.21

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.1%	92.6%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.9%	71.2%	66.1%	1.08×	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.9%	63.6%	71.5%	0.89×	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.1%	36.4%	28.5%	1.27×	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.1%	28.8%	33.9%	0.85×	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.9%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.54

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.4%	85.4%	75.4%	1.13×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.6%	77.6%	81.4%	0.95×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.4%	67.4%	51.3%	1.31×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.6%	32.6%	48.7%	0.67×	3.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.4%	22.4%	18.6%	1.21×	4.46
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.6%	14.6%	24.6%	0.59×	6.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers not to score in both halves	84.5%	84.5%	68.0%	1.24×	1.18
Troyes not to score in both halves	82.0%	84.3%	77.4%	1.09×	1.19
Troyes to score in both halves	18.0%	15.7%	22.6%	0.69×	6.39
Angers to score in both halves	15.5%	15.5%	32.0%	0.49×	6.43

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.1%	50.5%	54.0%	0.93×	1.98
Only Troyes scores	22.2%	22.3%	16.1%	1.39×	4.48
Only Angers scores	21.4%	22.3%	23.7%	0.94×	4.48
Neither team scores	10.3%	10.9%	6.6%	1.67×	9.16

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	25.0%	23.2%	1.07×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	23.4%	22.6%	16.2%	1.39×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	20.1%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	11.4%	12.1%	17.2%	0.70×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	10.3%	12.1%	6.6%	1.84×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	5.2%	7.6%	8.7%	0.87×	13.10
6 or more goals	2.8%	4.4%	8.6%	0.51×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.0%	39.9%	32.9%	1.21×	2.51
2+ goals in 2nd half	34.6%	33.4%	48.7%	0.69×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	29.4%	29.8%	18.6%	1.61×	3.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers not to win both halves	93.6%	94.0%	83.3%	1.13×	1.06
Troyes not to win both halves	92.4%	94.0%	90.6%	1.04×	1.06
Troyes to win both halves	7.6%	6.0%	9.4%	0.64×	16.58
Angers to win both halves	6.4%	6.0%	16.7%	0.36×	16.67

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to win either half	51.6%	54.9%	46.3%	1.19×	1.82
Angers to win either half	50.0%	54.9%	58.2%	0.94×	1.82
Angers to win neither half	50.0%	45.1%	41.8%	1.08×	2.22
Troyes to win neither half	48.4%	45.1%	53.7%	0.84×	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Angers not to win to nil	78.6%	78.1%	76.3%	1.02×	1.28
Troyes not to win to nil	77.8%	78.1%	83.9%	0.93×	1.28
Troyes to win to nil	22.2%	21.9%	16.1%	1.37×	4.56
Angers to win to nil	21.4%	21.9%	23.7%	0.92×	4.56

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.6%	27.9%	22.8%	1.22×	3.59
Troyes by 1	21.3%	24.1%	15.1%	1.60×	4.14
Angers by 1	20.8%	24.1%	20.7%	1.16×	4.14
Troyes by 2	10.2%	11.8%	9.8%	1.20×	8.48
Angers by 2	9.8%	7.3%	15.1%	0.48×	13.78
Troyes by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	36.94
Angers by 3+	4.4%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	36.95