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Ankara Keçiörengücü v Sivasspor — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · TUR-1. Lig · 2627

TUR-1. Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Ankara Keçiörengücü win
53.2%
model 53.9%
Draw
28.2%
model 27.5%
Sivasspor win
18.6%
model 18.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,549 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.1%
  2. 1-0 11.3%
  3. 2-0 10.7%
  4. 2-1 9.6%
  5. 0-0 9.3%

Goals

Over 2.547.2% Under 2.552.8%
BTTS yes49.6% BTTS no50.4%
Ankara Keçiörengücü 1+81.1% Ankara Keçiörengücü 2+49.6%
Sivasspor 1+59.2% Sivasspor 2+22.6%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.90. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
27/100
Data quality
30/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Draw (home no bet)
Home no bet · usually 42%
56.0% fair odds 1.79
strong signal · 4791 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw at HT
Double chance 1HT
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 975 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Ankara Keçiörengücü carry the stronger rating, 1520 Elo against 1419.
  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Ankara Keçiörengücü have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Ankara Keçiörengücü have an estimated 53.2% win probability, against 28.2% for the draw and 18.6% for Sivasspor. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.67 for Ankara Keçiörengücü and 0.90 for Sivasspor.

Why Ankara Keçiörengücü

Ankara Keçiörengücü carry the stronger rating, 1520 Elo against 1419. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.2%.

Why Sivasspor can win

Nothing in the data singles out Sivasspor.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Ankara Keçiörengücü, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sivasspor, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Ankara Keçiörengücü: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sivasspor: 42% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Ankara Keçiörengücü are the model's most likely outcome at 53.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 27/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.67–0.90 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.54–0.82 1-1 14% 42% 46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win 53.9% 51.2% 45.5% 1.13× 1.95
Draw 27.5% 27.1% 23.0% 1.18× 3.69
Sivasspor to win 18.6% 17.9% 32.0% 0.56× 5.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü & not both score 31.5% 30.8% 27.5% 1.12× 3.24
Ankara Keçiörengücü & both teams score 22.4% 21.7% 18.5% 1.17× 4.61
Draw & both teams score 18.2% 18.1% 16.2% 1.12× 5.52
Draw & not both score 9.3% 7.7% 7.2% 1.06× 13.07
Sivasspor & both teams score 9.0% 7.7% 16.7% 0.46× 13.07
Sivasspor & not both score 9.6% 7.7% 15.8% 0.49× 13.07
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü & over 1.5 42.6% 42.9% 37.4% 1.15× 2.33
Ankara Keçiörengücü & under 3.5 37.5% 36.6% 25.2% 1.45× 2.74
Ankara Keçiörengücü & over 2.5 31.9% 31.8% 30.2% 1.05× 3.15
Ankara Keçiörengücü & under 2.5 22.0% 21.8% 15.8% 1.39× 4.58
Draw & under 2.5 22.4% 21.8% 19.4% 1.13× 4.58
Draw & under 3.5 22.4% 21.8% 19.4% 1.13× 4.58
Draw & over 1.5 18.2% 17.7% 16.2% 1.09× 5.64
Ankara Keçiörengücü & over 3.5 16.4% 17.7% 20.7% 0.86× 5.64
Sivasspor & under 3.5 14.6% 12.4% 19.8% 0.63× 8.05
Ankara Keçiörengücü & under 1.5 11.3% 12.4% 8.6% 1.45× 8.06
Sivasspor & over 1.5 13.3% 12.4% 26.6% 0.47× 8.06
Sivasspor & over 2.5 10.2% 12.4% 23.9% 0.52× 8.06
Draw & under 1.5 9.3% 7.6% 7.2% 1.05× 13.20
Sivasspor & under 2.5 8.5% 7.6% 8.6% 0.88× 13.20
Draw & over 2.5 5.1% 7.6% 4.1% 1.87× 13.21
Draw & over 3.5 5.1% 7.6% 4.1% 1.87× 13.21
Sivasspor & under 1.5 5.3% 7.6% 5.9% 1.29× 13.21
Sivasspor & over 3.5 4.1% 4.4% 12.6% 0.35× 22.79
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (1UP) 67.0% 69.8% 1.43
Sivasspor (1UP) 35.8% 38.3% 2.61
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (2UP) 53.9% 52.8% 1.89
Sivasspor (2UP) 18.6% 19.8% 5.05
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win 2nd half 43.6% 41.4% 2.41
2nd half drawn 36.8% 36.5% 2.74
Sivasspor to win 2nd half 19.6% 20.3% 4.93
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor under 1.5 in 2nd half 89.8% 86.0% 1.16
Sivasspor under 0.5 in 2nd half 58.4% 54.9% 1.82
Sivasspor over 0.5 in 2nd half 41.6% 45.1% 2.22
Sivasspor over 1.5 in 2nd half 10.2% 14.0% 7.15
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 1.5 in 2nd half 75.5% 78.1% 1.28
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.3% 63.3% 1.58
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.7% 36.7% 2.73
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.5% 21.9% 4.57
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor (+2.5) 86.8% 87.4% 82.9% 1.05× 1.14
Ankara Keçiörengücü (+0.5) 81.4% 83.2% 68.0% 1.22× 1.20
Sivasspor (+1.5) 69.7% 67.9% 69.8% 0.97× 1.47
Ankara Keçiörengücü (-0.5) 53.9% 51.8% 45.5% 1.14× 1.93
Sivasspor (+0.5) 46.1% 48.2% 54.5% 0.88× 2.07
Ankara Keçiörengücü (-1.5) 30.3% 32.1% 30.2% 1.06× 3.12
Sivasspor (-0.5) 18.6% 16.8% 32.0% 0.53× 5.95
Ankara Keçiörengücü (-2.5) 13.2% 12.6% 17.1% 0.74× 7.94
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor to concede 81.1% 82.8% 77.5% 1.07× 1.21
Sivasspor clean sheet 18.9% 17.2% 22.5% 0.76× 5.82
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor to concede in 1st half 51.1% 53.8% 1.86
Sivasspor clean sheet in 1st half 48.9% 46.2% 2.16
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor to concede in 2nd half 61.3% 61.3% 1.63
Sivasspor clean sheet in 2nd half 38.7% 38.7% 2.58
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor under 3.5 goals 98.7% 97.3% 92.3% 1.05× 1.03
Sivasspor under 2.5 goals 93.8% 92.2% 81.5% 1.13× 1.09
Sivasspor under 1.5 goals 77.3% 76.4% 67.1% 1.14× 1.31
Sivasspor over 0.5 goals 59.2% 58.9% 65.8% 0.90× 1.70
Sivasspor under 0.5 goals 40.8% 41.1% 34.2% 1.20× 2.43
Sivasspor over 1.5 goals 22.7% 23.6% 32.9% 0.72× 4.23
Sivasspor over 2.5 goals 6.2% 7.8% 18.5% 0.42× 12.75
Sivasspor over 3.5 goals 1.3% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 37.15
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor under 1.5 in 1st half 94.9% 93.9% 1.07
Sivasspor under 0.5 in 1st half 69.8% 68.0% 1.47
Sivasspor over 0.5 in 1st half 30.2% 32.0% 3.13
Sivasspor over 1.5 in 1st half 5.1% 6.1% 16.36
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor scores equally in both 49.0% 45.6% 2.19
Sivasspor scores more in 2nd half 31.7% 33.3% 3.00
Sivasspor scores more in 1st half 19.3% 17.3% 5.78
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (away no bet) 66.2% 66.9% 66.4% 1.01× 1.50
Draw (away no bet) 33.8% 33.1% 33.6% 0.99× 3.02
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor even goals 58.3% 56.4% 54.5% 1.03× 1.77
Sivasspor odd goals 41.7% 43.6% 45.5% 0.96× 2.29
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.2% 86.8% 1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.8% 13.2% 7.60
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 61.0% 64.4% 1.55
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.0% 35.6% 2.81
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.2% 51.5% 1.94
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score 2+ in a row 42.8% 42.7% 2.34
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.2% 21.7% 4.61
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score 3+ in a row 17.1% 17.0% 5.88
Sivasspor to score 2+ in a row 15.9% 17.0% 5.89
Sivasspor to score 3+ in a row 3.3% 3.1% 31.91
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.1% 11.2% 12.6% 0.89× 8.91
1-0 11.3% 11.2% 8.6% 1.31× 8.91
2-0 10.7% 11.2% 7.7% 1.47× 8.91
0-0 9.3% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.45
0-1 5.3% 7.4% 5.9% 1.27× 13.45
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.45
3-0 5.9% 7.4% 4.1% 1.83× 13.45
3-1 5.3% 7.4% 5.0% 1.50× 13.45
1-2 5.2% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.45
0-2 3.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.34
0-3 0.9% 1.7% 5.0% 0.35× 58.35
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.35
1-3 1.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.34
1-4 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.35
2-2 4.3% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.34
2-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.76× 58.34
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.90× 58.35
3-2 2.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.90× 58.34
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.90× 58.35
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.35
4-0 2.5% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.34
4-1 2.2% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.34
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.35
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.35
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.80× 58.35
Any other score 3.0% 1.7% 7.2% 0.24× 58.34
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (2nd half DNB) 68.9% 66.7% 1.50
Sivasspor (2nd half DNB) 31.1% 33.3% 3.01
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü leading at HT (DNB) 70.8% 74.1% 1.35
Sivasspor leading at HT (DNB) 29.2% 26.0% 3.85
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (1X) 81.4% 82.1% 68.0% 1.21× 1.22
Ankara Keçiörengücü or Sivasspor (12) 72.5% 72.9% 77.0% 0.95× 1.37
Sivasspor or draw (X2) 46.1% 48.8% 54.5% 0.89× 2.05
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw at HT 83.7% 83.9% 1.19
Sivasspor or draw at HT 60.4% 62.8% 1.59
Ankara Keçiörengücü or Sivasspor at HT 56.0% 57.1% 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (1UP) 81.4% 86.1% 1.16
Sivasspor or draw (1UP) 46.1% 55.2% 1.81
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw in 2nd half 80.4% 79.7% 1.25
Ankara Keçiörengücü or Sivasspor in 2nd half 63.2% 63.5% 1.57
Sivasspor or draw in 2nd half 56.4% 58.6% 1.71
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.9% 60.5% 1.65
Neither half drawn 37.1% 39.5% 2.53
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (DNB) 74.3% 72.6% 58.7% 1.24× 1.38
Sivasspor (DNB) 25.7% 27.4% 41.3% 0.66× 3.65
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score first 58.9% 61.1% 1.64
Sivasspor to score first 31.8% 31.6% 3.16
No goal scored 9.3% 6.4% 15.56
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 50.4% 51.6% 49.6% 1.04× 1.94
Both teams to score 49.6% 48.4% 50.5% 0.96× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 39.7% 38.0% 30.6% 1.24× 2.63
Both score & over 2.5 36.5% 38.0% 38.3% 0.99× 2.63
Both score & under 2.5 13.1% 11.9% 12.6% 0.94× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 10.7% 11.9% 19.4% 0.61× 8.41
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.8% 85.7% 90.1% 0.95× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.2% 14.3% 9.9% 1.44× 7.01
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.9% 70.9% 1.41
Both teams to score in 2nd half 26.1% 29.1% 3.44
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 62.2% 60.6% 1.65
Both score 2nd half only 22.1% 23.4% 4.28
Both score 1st half only 11.8% 11.9% 8.42
Both score in both halves 3.9% 4.9% 20.58
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.3% 82.7% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.7% 17.3% 5.78
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.7% 52.5% 1.91
A half without a goal 48.3% 47.5% 2.10
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.5% 46.5% 43.2% 1.08× 2.15
0-1 goals 25.9% 27.0% 20.7% 1.30× 3.71
4-6 goals 24.0% 23.5% 32.9% 0.71× 4.25
7+ goals 1.6% 2.0% 4.1% 0.50× 49.77
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor to score exactly 0 40.8% 39.4% 34.2% 1.15× 2.54
Sivasspor to score exactly 1 36.6% 36.0% 33.3% 1.08× 2.78
Sivasspor to score exactly 2 16.4% 18.2% 14.9% 1.23× 5.49
Sivasspor to score 3+ 6.2% 8.6% 18.5% 0.47× 11.64
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score exactly 1 31.5% 32.2% 33.8% 0.95× 3.10
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score exactly 2 26.2% 26.4% 18.9% 1.40× 3.78
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score 3+ 23.3% 22.9% 25.7% 0.89× 4.38
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score exactly 0 18.9% 18.1% 22.5% 0.81× 5.51
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.0% 42.9% 2.33
Ankara Keçiörengücü leading at HT 39.6% 37.2% 2.69
Sivasspor leading at HT 16.3% 16.1% 6.21
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü -1: 2 46.1% 48.2% 2.08
Ankara Keçiörengücü -1: 1 30.3% 30.4% 3.29
Ankara Keçiörengücü -1: X 23.6% 23.3% 4.29
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor (0:1) 46.1% 47.5% 54.5% 0.87× 2.10
Ankara Keçiörengücü (0:1) 30.3% 31.0% 30.2% 1.03× 3.23
Draw (0:1) 23.6% 23.6% 15.8% 1.49× 4.24
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor (0:2) 69.7% 69.9% 69.8% 1.00× 1.43
Draw (0:2) 17.1% 15.7% 13.5% 1.16× 6.38
Ankara Keçiörengücü (0:2) 13.2% 11.4% 17.1% 0.66× 8.81
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor (0:3) 86.8% 88.6% 82.9% 1.07× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 8.5% 6.5% 8.1% 0.80× 15.39
Ankara Keçiörengücü (0:3) 4.7% 2.6% 9.5% 0.27× 39.14
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor (0:4) 95.3% 97.7% 90.5% 1.08× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.3% 1.4% 5.9% 0.24× 70.66
Ankara Keçiörengücü (0:4) 1.4% 1.4% 4.1% 0.35× 70.72
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (1:0) 81.4% 83.0% 68.0% 1.22× 1.21
Draw (1:0) 12.0% 12.5% 15.3% 0.82× 7.97
Sivasspor (1:0) 6.6% 7.5% 17.1% 0.44× 13.40
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (2:0) 93.4% 92.9% 82.9% 1.12× 1.08
Draw (2:0) 5.0% 2.8% 6.8% 0.41× 35.87
Sivasspor (2:0) 1.7% 2.8% 10.8% 0.26× 35.93
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.4% 48.2% 2.07
Halves equal 28.3% 26.2% 3.82
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.2% 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to concede 59.2% 59.9% 65.8% 0.91× 1.67
Ankara Keçiörengücü clean sheet 40.8% 40.1% 34.2% 1.17× 2.49
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü clean sheet in 1st half 69.8% 67.6% 1.48
Ankara Keçiörengücü to concede in 1st half 30.2% 32.4% 3.09
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü clean sheet in 2nd half 58.4% 54.6% 1.83
Ankara Keçiörengücü to concede in 2nd half 41.6% 45.4% 2.21
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 3.5 goals 91.2% 92.3% 84.2% 1.10× 1.08
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 0.5 goals 81.1% 82.3% 77.5% 1.06× 1.22
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 2.5 goals 76.7% 78.2% 74.3% 1.05× 1.28
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 1.5 goals 50.4% 52.8% 55.9% 0.95× 1.89
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 1.5 goals 49.6% 47.2% 44.1% 1.07× 2.12
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 2.5 goals 23.3% 21.8% 25.7% 0.85× 4.58
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 0.5 goals 18.9% 17.7% 22.5% 0.79× 5.65
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 3.5 goals 8.8% 7.7% 15.8% 0.49× 13.06
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 1.5 in 1st half 83.9% 81.1% 1.23
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 0.5 in 1st half 51.1% 53.8% 1.86
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 0.5 in 1st half 48.9% 46.2% 2.17
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 1.5 in 1st half 16.1% 18.9% 5.28
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü scores more in 2nd half 39.5% 37.2% 2.69
Ankara Keçiörengücü scores equally in both 34.1% 32.2% 3.10
Ankara Keçiörengücü scores more in 1st half 26.4% 27.8% 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 59.6% 56.0% 41.8% 1.34× 1.79
Sivasspor (home no bet) 40.4% 44.0% 58.2% 0.76× 2.27
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü even goals 51.8% 50.9% 53.6% 0.95× 1.96
Ankara Keçiörengücü odd goals 48.2% 49.1% 46.4% 1.06× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.4% 32.2% 3.10
HT 1-0 24.2% 22.5% 4.44
HT 0-1 12.0% 10.9% 9.16
HT 1-1 9.0% 8.0% 12.53
HT 2-0 8.7% 8.0% 12.53
Any other HT score 4.2% 2.5% 40.39
HT 2-1 3.1% 2.5% 40.44
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.5% 40.48
HT 1-2 1.6% 2.5% 40.51
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.5% 40.56
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü at HT / Ankara Keçiörengücü at FT 33.2% 34.2% 2.93
Draw at HT / Ankara Keçiörengücü at FT 18.3% 17.3% 5.77
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.9% 17.3% 5.78
Sivasspor at HT / Sivasspor at FT 9.4% 6.5% 15.43
Draw at HT / Sivasspor at FT 7.8% 6.5% 15.46
Ankara Keçiörengücü at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.4% 15.51
Sivasspor at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.6% 27.51
Sivasspor at HT / Ankara Keçiörengücü at FT 2.4% 3.6% 27.57
Ankara Keçiörengücü at HT / Sivasspor at FT 1.4% 3.6% 27.60
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score last 59.2% 56.6% 1.77
Sivasspor to score last 31.5% 34.1% 2.93
No goal scored 9.3% 6.4% 15.56
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.7% 93.5% 1.07
Ankara Keçiörengücü to lead by 1 at any time 67.0% 68.9% 1.45
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 46.4% 46.5% 2.15
Ankara Keçiörengücü to lead by 2 at any time 36.1% 37.3% 2.68
Sivasspor to lead by 1 at any time 35.8% 37.3% 2.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.8% 17.6% 5.68
Ankara Keçiörengücü to lead by 3 at any time 15.4% 17.6% 5.69
Sivasspor to lead by 2 at any time 10.5% 11.0% 9.09
Sivasspor to lead by 3 at any time 2.4% 2.6% 38.31
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.1% 87.1% 85.1% 1.02× 1.15
1-4 goals 79.0% 77.9% 73.4% 1.06× 1.28
2-6 goals 72.5% 72.2% 75.7% 0.95× 1.39
2-5 goals 69.5% 68.2% 71.6% 0.95× 1.47
1-3 goals 65.1% 68.2% 56.8% 1.20× 1.47
2-4 goals 62.4% 62.7% 59.9% 1.05× 1.60
2-3 goals 48.5% 47.4% 43.2% 1.10× 2.11
3-6 goals 45.6% 47.4% 53.6% 0.88× 2.11
1-2 goals 43.5% 43.6% 36.0% 1.21× 2.30
3-5 goals 42.6% 43.6% 49.6% 0.88× 2.30
3-4 goals 35.5% 39.0% 37.8% 1.03× 2.56
4-6 goals 24.0% 23.7% 32.9% 0.72× 4.22
4-5 goals 21.0% 23.7% 28.8% 0.82× 4.22
5-6 goals 10.1% 13.5% 16.2% 0.83× 7.42
7+ goals 1.6% 2.3% 4.1% 0.56× 44.27
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü never behind 55.0% 61.3% 1.63
Sivasspor never behind 23.7% 25.9% 3.87
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 53.4% 50.1% 50.0% 1.00× 2.00
Odd number of goals 46.6% 49.9% 50.0% 1.00× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.4% 55.1% 1.82
Odd goals in 1st half 43.6% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.6% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.4% 48.4% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.4% 96.0% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Over 0.5 goals 90.7% 92.3% 92.8% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.3% 87.8% 80.2% 1.10× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 74.4% 72.4% 63.5% 1.14× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 74.1% 72.4% 79.3% 0.91× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.8% 51.8% 42.8% 1.21× 1.93
Over 2.5 goals 47.2% 48.2% 57.2% 0.84× 2.08
Under 1.5 goals 25.9% 27.6% 20.7% 1.33× 3.62
Over 3.5 goals 25.6% 27.6% 36.5% 0.76× 3.62
Over 4.5 goals 11.7% 12.2% 19.8% 0.61× 8.21
Under 0.5 goals 9.3% 7.7% 7.2% 1.08× 12.91
Over 5.5 goals 4.6% 4.0% 8.1% 0.49× 25.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.4% 97.3% 95.8% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.0% 97.3% 90.8% 1.07× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.4% 86.6% 76.2% 1.14× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 67.4% 67.1% 54.0% 1.24× 1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 64.6% 62.3% 73.4% 0.85× 1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 35.4% 37.7% 26.6% 1.42× 2.65
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 32.6% 32.9% 46.0% 0.72× 3.04
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.6% 13.4% 23.8% 0.56× 7.48
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.0% 2.7% 9.2% 0.30× 36.67
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.6% 2.7% 4.2% 0.64× 36.71
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.5% 91.8% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.6% 73.8% 1.36
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.6% 67.0% 1.49
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.4% 33.0% 3.03
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.4% 26.2% 3.81
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.5% 8.2% 12.21
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.2% 82.5% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 76.9% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.7% 56.9% 1.76
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.3% 43.1% 2.32
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 23.1% 20.0% 5.00
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.8% 17.5% 5.71
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor not to score in both halves 87.4% 85.6% 1.17
Ankara Keçiörengücü not to score in both halves 68.7% 68.3% 1.46
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score in both halves 31.3% 31.7% 3.16
Sivasspor to score in both halves 12.6% 14.4% 6.94
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 49.6% 50.8% 50.5% 1.01× 1.97
Only Ankara Keçiörengücü scores 31.5% 31.4% 27.5% 1.14× 3.18
Neither team scores 9.3% 7.1% 7.2% 0.99× 14.08
Only Sivasspor scores 9.6% 7.1% 15.8% 0.45× 14.08
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.9% 25.0% 22.5% 1.11× 4.00
Exactly 3 goals 21.6% 22.3% 21.2% 1.05× 4.49
Exactly 1 goals 16.6% 17.6% 14.0% 1.26× 5.68
Exactly 4 goals 13.9% 12.3% 17.1% 0.72× 8.14
Exactly 0 goals 9.3% 7.8% 7.2% 1.08× 12.88
Exactly 5 goals 7.1% 7.8% 12.2% 0.64× 12.88
6 or more goals 4.6% 4.0% 8.1% 0.50× 24.72
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.1% 36.9% 2.71
No goals in 1st half 34.4% 34.4% 2.91
2 goals in 1st half 20.0% 18.9% 5.30
3+ goals in 1st half 9.5% 8.2% 12.21
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.3% 43.2% 2.31
1 goal in 2nd half 32.5% 34.3% 2.91
No goals in 2nd half 23.1% 20.6% 4.86
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor not to win both halves 96.7% 97.3% 1.03
Ankara Keçiörengücü not to win both halves 82.4% 81.9% 1.22
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win both halves 17.6% 18.1% 5.53
Sivasspor to win both halves 3.4% 2.7% 36.93
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor to win neither half 67.4% 68.7% 1.46
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win either half 65.6% 68.6% 1.46
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win neither half 34.4% 31.4% 3.19
Sivasspor to win either half 32.6% 31.3% 3.20
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sivasspor not to win to nil 90.4% 92.3% 84.2% 1.10× 1.08
Ankara Keçiörengücü not to win to nil 68.5% 69.5% 72.5% 0.96× 1.44
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win to nil 31.5% 30.5% 27.5% 1.11× 3.28
Sivasspor to win to nil 9.6% 7.7% 15.8% 0.49× 13.06
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.5% 27.3% 23.0% 1.19× 3.66
Ankara Keçiörengücü by 1 23.6% 23.4% 15.8% 1.48× 4.27
Ankara Keçiörengücü by 2 17.1% 17.2% 13.5% 1.28× 5.80
Ankara Keçiörengücü by 3+ 13.2% 11.8% 17.1% 0.69× 8.44
Sivasspor by 1 12.0% 11.8% 15.3% 0.77× 8.45
Sivasspor by 2 5.0% 3.0% 6.8% 0.44× 33.43
Sivasspor by 3+ 1.7% 3.0% 10.8% 0.28× 33.47
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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