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Antwerp v Anderlecht — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · BEL-Pro League · 2627

BEL-Pro League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Antwerp win
39.8%
model 38.4%
Draw
28.9%
model 26.9%
Anderlecht win
31.3%
model 34.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.8%
  2. 1-0 9.5%
  3. 0-1 8.9%
  4. 2-1 8.4%
  5. 1-2 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.548.7% Under 2.551.3%
BTTS yes53.6% BTTS no46.4%
Antwerp 1+74.1% Antwerp 2+39.1%
Anderlecht 1+71.9% Anderlecht 2+36.3%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
77/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 64%
68.0% fair odds 1.47
moderate signal · 2774 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Anderlecht (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 78%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Antwerp have an estimated 39.8% win probability, against 31.3% for Anderlecht and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Antwerp and 1.27 for Anderlecht.

Why Antwerp

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.35 to 1.27. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Anderlecht can win

Anderlecht carry the stronger rating, 1518 Elo against 1470. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Antwerp, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Anderlecht, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Antwerp: 50% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Anderlecht: 51% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Antwerp are the model's most likely outcome at 39.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.35–1.27 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.23–1.34 1-1 13% 47% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht to win 38.9% 36.4% 31.0% 1.17× 2.75
Antwerp to win 33.9% 30.4% 42.8% 0.71× 3.29
Draw 27.2% 27.9% 26.3% 1.06× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht & not both score 21.2% 21.8% 14.6% 1.49× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.2% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Antwerp & not both score 18.2% 18.0% 24.3% 0.74× 5.57
Anderlecht & both teams score 17.8% 18.0% 16.5% 1.09× 5.57
Antwerp & both teams score 15.7% 18.0% 18.6% 0.96× 5.57
Draw & not both score 8.0% 8.3% 7.7% 1.08× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht & over 1.5 29.1% 26.1% 24.3% 1.07× 3.84
Anderlecht & under 3.5 28.3% 26.1% 22.0% 1.18× 3.84
Antwerp & under 3.5 25.0% 26.1% 29.4% 0.89× 3.84
Antwerp & over 1.5 24.8% 21.6% 33.6% 0.64× 4.63
Anderlecht & over 2.5 22.2% 21.6% 19.7% 1.10× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 20.9% 21.6% 19.9% 1.09× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 20.9% 21.6% 19.9% 1.09× 4.63
Antwerp & over 2.5 19.0% 18.0% 26.0% 0.69× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.2% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Anderlecht & under 2.5 16.7% 18.0% 11.4% 1.58× 5.56
Antwerp & under 2.5 14.9% 12.8% 16.9% 0.76× 7.79
Anderlecht & over 3.5 10.7% 12.8% 9.1% 1.41× 7.79
Antwerp & under 1.5 9.1% 7.9% 9.4% 0.84× 12.63
Antwerp & over 3.5 8.9% 7.9% 13.6% 0.58× 12.63
Anderlecht & under 1.5 9.9% 7.9% 6.8% 1.17× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 8.0% 7.9% 7.7% 1.03× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.3% 7.9% 6.6% 1.20× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.3% 7.9% 6.6% 1.20× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (1UP) 55.0% 52.7% — — 1.90
Antwerp (1UP) 50.5% 52.5% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (2UP) 38.9% 37.5% — — 2.67
Antwerp (2UP) 33.9% 30.6% — — 3.27
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 36.8% 36.1% — — 2.77
Anderlecht to win 2nd half 34.6% 34.4% — — 2.91
Antwerp to win 2nd half 28.6% 25.8% — — 3.88
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.7% 84.2% — — 1.19
Anderlecht over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.3% 54.5% — — 1.84
Anderlecht under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.7% 45.5% — — 2.20
Anderlecht over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.3% 15.8% — — 6.35
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.3% 82.6% — — 1.21
Antwerp over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.5% 55.0% — — 1.82
Antwerp under 0.5 in 2nd half 49.5% 45.0% — — 2.22
Antwerp over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.7% 17.4% — — 5.75
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (+2.5) 95.1% 96.3% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Anderlecht (+1.5) 85.4% 88.4% 78.0% 1.13× 1.13
Anderlecht (+0.5) 66.1% 68.7% 57.2% 1.20× 1.46
Antwerp (+0.5) 61.1% 62.9% 69.0% 0.91× 1.59
Anderlecht (-0.5) 38.9% 37.1% 31.0% 1.20× 2.70
Antwerp (-0.5) 33.9% 31.3% 42.8% 0.73× 3.19
Antwerp (-1.5) 14.6% 11.6% 22.0% 0.52× 8.66
Antwerp (-2.5) 4.9% 3.7% 10.5% 0.35× 26.99
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht to concede 70.9% 76.7% 77.8% 0.99× 1.30
Anderlecht clean sheet 29.1% 23.3% 22.2% 1.05× 4.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht clean sheet in 1st half 58.8% 57.1% — — 1.75
Anderlecht to concede in 1st half 41.2% 42.9% — — 2.33
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht to concede in 2nd half 50.5% 54.7% — — 1.83
Anderlecht clean sheet in 2nd half 49.5% 45.3% — — 2.21
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht under 6.5 corners 79.1% 76.0% — — 1.32
Anderlecht over 2.5 corners 78.4% 76.0% — — 1.32
Anderlecht under 5.5 corners 67.9% 67.6% — — 1.48
Anderlecht over 3.5 corners 62.6% 61.8% — — 1.62
Anderlecht under 4.5 corners 53.6% 53.1% — — 1.89
Anderlecht over 4.5 corners 46.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
Anderlecht under 3.5 corners 37.4% 38.2% — — 2.62
Anderlecht over 5.5 corners 32.1% 32.4% — — 3.09
Anderlecht under 2.5 corners 21.6% 24.0% — — 4.17
Anderlecht over 6.5 corners 20.9% 24.0% — — 4.17
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht under 3.5 goals 95.3% 97.5% 95.2% 1.02× 1.03
Anderlecht under 2.5 goals 84.8% 81.5% 86.9% 0.94× 1.23
Anderlecht over 0.5 goals 73.8% 71.9% 68.1% 1.06× 1.39
Anderlecht under 1.5 goals 61.2% 63.2% 64.7% 0.98× 1.58
Anderlecht over 1.5 goals 38.8% 36.8% 35.3% 1.04× 2.71
Anderlecht under 0.5 goals 26.2% 28.1% 31.9% 0.88× 3.56
Anderlecht over 2.5 goals 15.2% 18.5% 13.1% 1.41× 5.40
Anderlecht over 3.5 goals 4.7% 2.5% 4.8% 0.53× 39.79
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht under 1.5 in 1st half 89.9% 89.4% — — 1.12
Anderlecht under 0.5 in 1st half 58.5% 62.0% — — 1.61
Anderlecht over 0.5 in 1st half 41.5% 38.0% — — 2.63
Anderlecht over 1.5 in 1st half 10.1% 10.6% — — 9.46
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht scores more in 2nd half 38.8% 37.4% — — 2.68
Anderlecht scores equally in both 38.7% 37.4% — — 2.68
Anderlecht scores more in 1st half 22.5% 22.0% — — 4.55
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp (away no bet) 55.5% 57.3% 61.9% 0.93× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 44.5% 42.7% 38.1% 1.12× 2.34
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht even goals 53.4% 52.6% 57.3% 0.92× 1.90
Anderlecht odd goals 46.6% 47.4% 42.7% 1.11× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.2% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.8% 12.1% — — 8.29
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.7% 57.6% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.3% 42.4% — — 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.4% 51.0% — — 1.96
Anderlecht to score 2+ in a row 30.9% 29.1% — — 3.43
Antwerp to score 2+ in a row 27.1% 25.2% — — 3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.3% 16.3% — — 6.15
Anderlecht to score 3+ in a row 9.7% 5.6% — — 17.77
Antwerp to score 3+ in a row 7.8% 5.6% — — 17.93
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp corners (+3.5) 87.2% 84.5% — — 1.18
Antwerp corners (+2.5) 80.7% 79.8% — — 1.25
Anderlecht corners (+3.5) 78.3% 74.8% — — 1.34
Antwerp corners (+1.5) 72.3% 70.7% — — 1.41
Anderlecht corners (+2.5) 69.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
Anderlecht corners (+1.5) 59.5% 57.1% — — 1.75
Antwerp corners (-1.5) 40.5% 42.9% — — 2.33
Antwerp corners (-2.5) 30.4% 34.1% — — 2.93
Anderlecht corners (-1.5) 27.7% 29.3% — — 3.42
Antwerp corners (-3.5) 21.7% 25.2% — — 3.97
Anderlecht corners (-2.5) 19.3% 20.2% — — 4.94
Anderlecht corners (-3.5) 12.8% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 39.0% 34.0% — — 2.94
9-11 corners 30.4% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 30.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 77.3% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 71.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 69.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 61.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 60.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 50.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 49.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 39.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 39.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 30.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 28.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 22.7% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.9% 11.5% 12.3% 0.93× 8.72
0-1 9.9% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.50
1-0 9.1% 7.4% 9.4% 0.79× 13.50
1-2 8.5% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.50
0-0 8.0% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.50
0-2 6.9% 7.4% 4.8% 1.55× 13.51
2-1 7.8% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.50
2-0 5.8% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.51
2-2 5.2% 7.4% 5.2% 1.41× 13.51
0-3 3.1% 1.7% 2.2% 0.80× 58.30
0-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.31
1-3 3.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.30
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.39× 58.31
2-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.2% 0.80× 58.31
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.31
3-0 2.4% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.31
3-1 3.2% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-2 2.1% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.31
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.71× 58.32
4-0 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.32
4-1 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.31
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.24× 58.32
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.23× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.71× 58.32
Any other score 2.1% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (2nd half DNB) 54.7% 53.1% — — 1.89
Antwerp (2nd half DNB) 45.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht leading at HT (DNB) 50.4% 54.6% — — 1.83
Antwerp leading at HT (DNB) 49.6% 45.4% — — 2.20
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp or Anderlecht (12) 72.8% 72.1% 73.7% 0.98× 1.39
Anderlecht or draw (X2) 66.1% 69.6% 57.2% 1.22× 1.44
Antwerp or draw (1X) 61.1% 63.6% 69.0% 0.92× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht or draw at HT 72.7% 75.1% — — 1.33
Antwerp or draw at HT 72.3% 75.1% — — 1.33
Antwerp or Anderlecht at HT 55.0% 48.0% — — 2.08
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht or draw (1UP) 66.1% 76.1% — — 1.31
Antwerp or draw (1UP) 61.1% 71.5% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht or draw in 2nd half 71.4% 74.2% — — 1.35
Antwerp or draw in 2nd half 65.4% 65.6% — — 1.52
Antwerp or Anderlecht in 2nd half 63.2% 63.9% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.9% 61.5% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 35.1% 38.5% — — 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (DNB) 53.5% 51.0% 42.0% 1.21× 1.96
Antwerp (DNB) 46.5% 49.0% 58.0% 0.85× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht to score first 47.9% 46.0% — — 2.17
Antwerp to score first 44.1% 41.8% — — 2.39
No goal scored 8.0% 7.5% — — 13.38
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.7% 51.3% 53.6% 0.96× 1.95
Not both teams to score 47.3% 48.7% 46.4% 1.05× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 39.7% 38.4% 41.4% 0.93× 2.60
Not both score & under 2.5 39.6% 38.4% 35.7% 1.08× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.9% 12.4% 12.3% 1.00× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.8% 8.3% 10.8% 0.77× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.5% 85.6% 85.5% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.5% 14.4% 14.5% 0.99× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.0% 73.8% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.0% 26.2% — — 3.81
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.6% 60.1% — — 1.66
Both score 2nd half only 23.3% 21.1% — — 4.74
Both score 1st half only 12.4% 10.7% — — 9.36
Both score in both halves 4.8% 5.0% — — 20.05
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.9% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.1% 16.8% — — 5.97
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
A half without a goal 48.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.3% 47.2% 47.6% 0.99× 2.12
0-1 goals 26.9% 26.6% 23.6% 1.13× 3.76
4-6 goals 24.2% 22.9% 26.3% 0.87× 4.36
7+ goals 1.6% 1.8% 2.8% 0.66× 54.34
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht to score exactly 1 35.1% 35.9% 33.0% 1.09× 2.78
Anderlecht to score exactly 0 26.2% 27.4% 31.9% 0.86× 3.66
Anderlecht to score exactly 2 23.5% 22.3% 22.3% 1.00× 4.48
Anderlecht to score 3+ 15.2% 19.6% 13.1% 1.49× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp to score exactly 1 35.9% 35.6% 34.5% 1.03× 2.81
Antwerp to score exactly 0 29.1% 26.6% 22.2% 1.20× 3.77
Antwerp to score exactly 2 22.2% 23.3% 24.3% 0.96× 4.29
Antwerp to score 3+ 12.8% 14.3% 19.3% 0.74× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.0% 52.0% — — 1.92
Anderlecht leading at HT 27.7% 24.9% — — 4.02
Antwerp leading at HT 27.3% 24.9% — — 4.02
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht -1: 1 61.1% 62.5% — — 1.60
Anderlecht -1: X 21.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Anderlecht -1: 2 17.9% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (0:1) 66.1% 65.2% 57.2% 1.14× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 19.3% 17.8% 21.0% 0.85× 5.61
Antwerp (0:1) 14.6% 13.7% 22.0% 0.62× 7.28
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (0:2) 85.4% 87.0% 78.0% 1.12× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 9.7% 7.7% 11.7% 0.66× 13.02
Antwerp (0:2) 4.9% 3.8% 10.5% 0.36× 26.58
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (0:3) 95.1% 96.6% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.5% 2.4% 6.2% 0.39× 42.04
Antwerp (0:3) 1.3% 2.4% 4.5% 0.53× 42.14
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (0:4) 98.7% 98.1% 95.5% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 2.5% 0.49× 81.99
Antwerp (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 2.2% 0.56× 82.07
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp (1:0) 61.1% 65.3% 69.0% 0.95× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 21.0% 21.7% 17.7% 1.22× 4.61
Anderlecht (1:0) 17.9% 17.1% 13.4% 1.28× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp (2:0) 82.1% 84.6% 86.6% 0.98× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.5% 10.3% 8.6% 1.19× 9.73
Anderlecht (2:0) 6.4% 6.4% 4.9% 1.29× 15.70
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.1% 48.8% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.6% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 26.3% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp to concede 73.8% 73.2% 68.1% 1.07× 1.37
Antwerp clean sheet 26.2% 26.8% 31.9% 0.84× 3.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp clean sheet in 1st half 58.5% 62.0% — — 1.61
Antwerp to concede in 1st half 41.5% 38.0% — — 2.63
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp to concede in 2nd half 55.3% 54.8% — — 1.83
Antwerp clean sheet in 2nd half 44.7% 45.2% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp over 2.5 corners 84.3% 81.0% — — 1.24
Antwerp over 3.5 corners 71.1% 71.8% — — 1.39
Antwerp under 6.5 corners 70.6% 71.8% — — 1.39
Antwerp under 5.5 corners 58.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
Antwerp over 4.5 corners 56.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
Antwerp under 4.5 corners 43.8% 42.5% — — 2.35
Antwerp over 5.5 corners 41.8% 42.5% — — 2.35
Antwerp over 6.5 corners 29.4% 28.2% — — 3.55
Antwerp under 3.5 corners 28.9% 28.2% — — 3.55
Antwerp under 2.5 corners 15.7% 19.0% — — 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp under 3.5 goals 96.3% 96.4% 90.9% 1.06× 1.04
Antwerp under 2.5 goals 87.2% 87.3% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Antwerp over 0.5 goals 70.9% 74.2% 77.8% 0.95× 1.35
Antwerp under 1.5 goals 65.1% 67.9% 56.5% 1.20× 1.47
Antwerp over 1.5 goals 34.9% 32.1% 43.5% 0.74× 3.12
Antwerp under 0.5 goals 29.1% 25.8% 22.2% 1.16× 3.88
Antwerp over 2.5 goals 12.8% 12.7% 19.3% 0.66× 7.85
Antwerp over 3.5 goals 3.7% 3.6% 9.1% 0.40× 27.49
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp under 1.5 in 1st half 90.1% 94.6% — — 1.06
Antwerp under 0.5 in 1st half 58.8% 56.8% — — 1.76
Antwerp over 0.5 in 1st half 41.2% 43.2% — — 2.31
Antwerp over 1.5 in 1st half 9.9% 5.4% — — 18.44
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp scores equally in both 41.1% 42.0% — — 2.38
Antwerp scores more in 2nd half 34.9% 33.0% — — 3.03
Antwerp scores more in 1st half 24.1% 21.3% — — 4.70
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht (home no bet) 58.9% 56.5% 54.0% 1.04× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 41.1% 43.5% 46.0% 0.95× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp even goals 54.2% 50.7% 52.7% 0.96× 1.97
Antwerp odd goals 45.8% 49.3% 47.3% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.5% 33.5% — — 2.99
HT 0-1 18.4% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-0 18.2% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-1 9.8% 6.9% — — 14.45
HT 0-2 5.0% 2.4% — — 41.96
HT 2-0 4.8% 2.4% — — 41.96
Any other HT score 3.4% 2.4% — — 42.06
HT 1-2 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.11
HT 2-1 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.11
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht at HT / Anderlecht at FT 21.0% 21.8% — — 4.60
Antwerp at HT / Antwerp at FT 19.3% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.9% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / Anderlecht at FT 15.4% 16.7% — — 5.99
Draw at HT / Antwerp at FT 12.7% 12.6% — — 7.91
Antwerp at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.0% — — 16.67
Anderlecht at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.59
Antwerp at HT / Anderlecht at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.67
Anderlecht at HT / Antwerp at FT 1.9% 3.5% — — 28.70
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht to score last 48.0% 46.5% — — 2.15
Antwerp to score last 44.1% 40.1% — — 2.49
No goal scored 8.0% 7.5% — — 13.38
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.0% 92.6% — — 1.08
Anderlecht to lead by 1 at any time 55.0% 50.9% — — 1.96
Antwerp to lead by 1 at any time 50.5% 50.8% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 43.5% 39.2% — — 2.55
Anderlecht to lead by 2 at any time 23.7% 19.7% — — 5.08
Antwerp to lead by 2 at any time 20.0% 19.6% — — 5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.4% 10.5% — — 9.53
Anderlecht to lead by 3 at any time 8.1% 6.7% — — 14.88
Antwerp to lead by 3 at any time 6.3% 6.7% — — 14.96
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp most corners 51.4% 51.7% — — 1.94
Anderlecht most corners 37.7% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 10.9% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.3% 87.4% 86.0% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.1% 83.4% 76.9% 1.08× 1.20
2-6 goals 71.5% 72.4% 73.8% 0.98× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.4% 68.8% 70.1% 0.98× 1.45
1-3 goals 66.2% 68.8% 63.5% 1.08× 1.45
2-4 goals 61.2% 63.3% 61.0% 1.04× 1.58
2-3 goals 47.3% 48.5% 47.6% 1.02× 2.06
3-6 goals 45.9% 48.5% 49.5% 0.98× 2.06
1-2 goals 44.5% 43.6% 40.4% 1.08× 2.29
3-5 goals 42.8% 43.6% 45.8% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.6% 39.2% 36.7% 1.07× 2.55
4-6 goals 24.2% 24.5% 26.3% 0.93× 4.08
4-5 goals 21.1% 24.5% 22.7% 1.08× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.3% 14.8% 12.9% 1.14× 6.76
7+ goals 1.6% 2.6% 2.8% 0.92× 39.15
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht never behind 41.5% 48.4% — — 2.06
Antwerp never behind 37.1% 44.0% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.0% 50.9% 50.1% 1.02× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.0% 49.1% 49.9% 0.98× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.0% 57.6% — — 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.0% 42.4% — — 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.7% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.3% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.3% 95.4% 93.5% 1.02× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.1% 87.6% 84.4% 1.04× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 74.2% 72.5% 71.0% 1.02× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 73.1% 72.5% 76.4% 0.95× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.5% 52.5% 47.9% 1.10× 1.90
Over 2.5 goals 47.5% 47.5% 52.1% 0.91× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 26.9% 27.5% 23.6% 1.17× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 25.8% 27.5% 29.0% 0.95× 3.63
Over 4.5 goals 11.9% 12.4% 15.6% 0.80× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 4.7% 4.6% 6.5% 0.71× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.2% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.9% 92.4% 92.9% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.2% 86.7% 82.0% 1.06× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 67.0% 67.4% 62.3% 1.08× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.8% 61.9% 68.8% 0.90× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 36.2% 38.1% 31.2% 1.22× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 33.0% 32.6% 37.7% 0.86× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.8% 13.3% 18.0% 0.74× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.1% 7.6% 7.1% 1.07× 13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.8% 2.9% 0.98× 35.61
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.7% 92.5% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 71.1% 71.8% — — 1.39
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.5% 68.4% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.5% 31.6% — — 3.16
Over 1.5 in 1st half 28.9% 28.2% — — 3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.3% 7.5% — — 13.33
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.7% 83.1% — — 1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.7% 79.4% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.4% 54.8% — — 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.6% 45.2% — — 2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.3% 20.6% — — 4.85
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.3% 16.9% — — 5.93
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp not to score in both halves 79.2% 78.5% — — 1.27
Anderlecht not to score in both halves 77.1% 78.4% — — 1.28
Anderlecht to score in both halves 22.9% 21.6% — — 4.63
Antwerp to score in both halves 20.8% 21.5% — — 4.65
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.7% 53.9% 53.6% 1.00× 1.86
Only Anderlecht scores 21.2% 22.2% 14.6% 1.52× 4.50
Only Antwerp scores 18.2% 16.0% 24.3% 0.66× 6.24
Neither team scores 8.0% 7.1% 7.7% 0.92× 14.03
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.6% 24.9% 24.5% 1.01× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 18.9% 17.5% 16.0% 1.09× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 13.9% 12.1% 13.6% 0.89× 8.24
Exactly 0 goals 8.0% 7.6% 7.7% 0.99× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 7.2% 7.6% 9.2% 0.82× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.7% 4.5% 6.5% 0.69× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.6% 37.4% — — 2.67
No goals in 1st half 34.5% 35.9% — — 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 19.6% 15.7% — — 6.37
3+ goals in 1st half 9.3% 7.5% — — 13.33
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.6% 45.5% — — 2.20
1 goal in 2nd half 33.2% 33.8% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 22.3% 22.8% — — 4.39
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp not to win both halves 92.1% 94.1% — — 1.06
Anderlecht not to win both halves 90.4% 94.1% — — 1.06
Anderlecht to win both halves 9.6% 5.9% — — 16.83
Antwerp to win both halves 7.9% 5.9% — — 16.95
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Anderlecht to win either half 52.6% 54.3% — — 1.84
Antwerp to win neither half 52.0% 54.3% — — 1.84
Antwerp to win either half 48.0% 45.7% — — 2.19
Anderlecht to win neither half 47.4% 45.7% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp not to win to nil 81.8% 83.1% 75.7% 1.10× 1.20
Anderlecht not to win to nil 78.8% 78.1% 85.4% 0.92× 1.28
Anderlecht to win to nil 21.2% 21.9% 14.6% 1.49× 4.57
Antwerp to win to nil 18.2% 16.9% 24.3% 0.69× 5.92
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.2% 27.9% 26.3% 1.06× 3.59
Anderlecht by 1 21.0% 24.1% 17.7% 1.36× 4.15
Antwerp by 1 19.3% 17.1% 21.0% 0.81× 5.86
Anderlecht by 2 11.5% 11.8% 8.6% 1.36× 8.51
Antwerp by 2 9.7% 7.2% 11.7% 0.61× 13.90
Anderlecht by 3+ 6.4% 7.2% 4.9% 1.46× 13.91
Antwerp by 3+ 4.9% 2.7% 10.5% 0.26× 36.75
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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