Antwerp v Royal Charleroi SC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · BEL-Pro League · 2627
BEL-Pro League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.5%
- 0-1 9.8%
- 1-2 9.1%
- 0-2 7.7%
- 1-0 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 50.3% | Under 2.5 | 49.7% |
| BTTS yes | 54.4% | BTTS no | 45.6% |
| Antwerp 1+ | 69.2% | Antwerp 2+ | 33.0% |
| Royal Charleroi SC 1+ | 77.9% | Royal Charleroi SC 2+ | 44.5% |
Expected goals 1.18 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Royal Charleroi SC carry the stronger rating, 1569 Elo against 1469.
- Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Royal Charleroi SC have an estimated 43.0% win probability, against 28.5% for Antwerp and 28.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.18 for Antwerp and 1.51 for Royal Charleroi SC.
Why Antwerp
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.5%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Royal Charleroi SC can win
Royal Charleroi SC carry the stronger rating, 1569 Elo against 1469. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Antwerp, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Royal Charleroi SC, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Antwerp: 50% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Royal Charleroi SC: 56% possession, 18.0 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Royal Charleroi SC are the model's most likely outcome at 43.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.03–1.42 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 49% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.