Arezzo v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.4%
- 2-1 9.9%
- 2-0 8.9%
- 1-0 8.0%
- 3-1 6.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 58.7% | Under 2.5 | 41.3% |
| BTTS yes | 58.6% | BTTS no | 41.4% |
| Arezzo 1+ | 85.5% | Arezzo 2+ | 57.5% |
| Pisa 1+ | 67.1% | Pisa 2+ | 30.6% |
Expected goals 1.93 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Arezzo carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1309.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Arezzo have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Arezzo have an estimated 55.2% win probability, against 24.4% for the draw and 20.4% for Pisa. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.93 for Arezzo and 1.11 for Pisa.
Why Arezzo
Arezzo carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1309. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.4%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Pisa can win
Away from home Pisa average 0.82 xG a match.
Key players
Pisa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Stefano Moreo (0.28), Filip Stojilkovic (0.24), Henrik Meister (0.21).
Availability
No lineup on record for Arezzo, so availability is unknown. 1 of Pisa's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Arezzo: 46% possession, 15.3 shots a match, 12.7 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Pisa: 46% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Arezzo are the model's most likely outcome at 55.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 39/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.93–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.02–1.10 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 59% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.