Arsenal v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 8
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
2.91 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-2.16 – +0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
64.7%
Draw
22.6%
Bournemouth win
12.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWWLWW last 10
scored 15
from 19.2 xG
conceded 6
from 9.9 xG
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.15–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.07–0.95 | 2-0 10% | 58% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 3.16 xGBournemouth 1.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16' |
 Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.76 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 19' |
 Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.55 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 25' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 33' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 39' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Hill |
| 51' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben White |
| 52' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.86 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 67' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 68' |
Arsenal |
Myles Lewis-Skelly | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Arsenal |
Ben White | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Bournemouth |
Tyler Adams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Evanilson |
| 78' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.45 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | William Saliba |
| 85' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Max Dowman |
| 86' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 91' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 92' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Declan Rice DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.60 | 0.09 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ben White DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kai Havertz AMC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Martinelli AML | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Max Dowman Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Eberechi Eze Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Cristhian Mosquera Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rayan AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| David Brooks Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Alex Tóth Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |