Arsenal v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.60
Goals − xG
-1.05 – +0.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
55.8%
Draw
24.3%
Bournemouth win
19.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.71–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.90–1.04 | 1-1 10% | 56% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 2.05 xGBournemouth 1.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' |
 Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 16' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 25' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 30' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 33' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Martin Odegaard |
| 41' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 43' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 48' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 53' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Myles Lewis-Skelly |
| 61' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 62' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 66' |
Bournemouth |
Dean Huijsen | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Goal | Antoine Semenyo |
| 72' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 74' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Goal | — |
| 74' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.58 | 0.88 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Jakub Kiwior DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.08 | 1.66 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.68 |
| Ben White DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Declan Rice MC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.05 | 0.87 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raheem Sterling Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.42 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| Evanilson FW | 89 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Dango Ouattara AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Julián Araujo DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Antoine Semenyo Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| David Brooks Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |