Arsenal v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 3 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 6
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.51
Goals − xG
-0.69 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
67.2%
Draw
19.7%
Brentford win
13.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.0 xG
conceded 5
from 10.1 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.10–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.91–0.92 | 1-0 11% | 54% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 2.69 xGBrentford 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 10' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ben White |
| 16' |
Arsenal |
Ben White | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 16' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 19' |
 Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ben White |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 36' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 39' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 49' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 65' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 68' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Merino |
| 68' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 90' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mikel Merino |
| 92' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 95' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Merino FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.04 | 0.19 | 1.67 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Ben White DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.52 | 0.82 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.42 | 0.98 |
| Piero Hincapié DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Martín Zubimendi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Declan Rice MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.43 | 1.07 |
| Noni Madueke FWR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.79 |
| Jurriën Timber Sub | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Cristhian Mosquera DC | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Bukayo Saka Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Eberechi Eze Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Viktor Gyokeres Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dango Ouattara FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rico Henry DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Jensen MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Schade FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Jordan Henderson Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nathan Collins Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |